Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Instant Coffee

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2009-10-09T04:22:57.603-04:00

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2009-09-09T02:33:20.241-04:00

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2009-02-10T22:51:00.000-05:00

I completely disagree with Poblano (for the first ...

2008-05-29T19:44:00.000-04:00

I completely disagree with Poblano (for the first time!) and everyone else it seems on point #2.

I feel that it was a poor tactic and the only reason they are getting away with it is because the DNC is too much of a pussy to come back and rightly accuse John McCain of fault for the dozens of deaths that happened in that marketplace right after he stubbornly visited.

McCain's camp has opened itself up for this obvious conterattack and taking the opportunity would both explain Obama's hesitance to go back there frequently and take control of media dialog about who better understands what is happening in Iraq. Instead McCain has continued to get away with making that disasterous trip on which he clearly learned nothing and now Obama has to waste time on some trip at taxpayers' expense which will accomplish nothing.

John, you still don't understand what I am saying ...

2008-05-29T19:41:00.000-04:00

John, you still don't understand what I am saying because my math is not incorrect. Hillary Clinton will only accept 2210, as she is counting them in full. When the RBC meets and if they cut the FL & MI delegates per what the DNC lawyers say, Obama should only need 2117 (or some close variation)for the nomination. He will reach that very easily. But, if Hillary Clinton does not agree with the outcome of the RBC, it is within her right to appeal this to the convention floor. Understand, she has not had a real chance at winning for several months now and she has not gotten out. What makes you think that she will get out until someone gets to what SHE thinks is the finish line?

Anonymous, your math is wrong. Obama doesn't need...

2008-05-29T18:56:00.000-04:00

Anonymous, your math is wrong. Obama doesn't need 2210, counting his Michigan and Florida delegates only half. He needs 2210 if you count them as full delegates. At any rate, Clinton's superdelegates and pledged delegates are going to start defecting as soon as Obama gets to whatever number the RBC sets on Saturday. At that point, Clinton will have no further chance. It isn't going to the convention.

Sorry to have annoyed you John, but you don’t have...

2008-05-29T18:35:00.000-04:00

Sorry to have annoyed you John, but you don’t have to be a jerk. I am guessing that you and I both want Barack Obama to be the nominee. I have never seen Democratic Convention watch until now. If I would have, I wouldn’t have used as strong of a word. I have been saying since February after the Wisconsin primary that Hillary Clinton cannot win and since then, I believe that Barack Obama has only increased his lead. But, you do understand that unless Hillary gets everything that she wants, she and her supporters want and will try to appeal this all the way to the convention.

Since it appears that the RBC can only give out ½ the delegates at this time, it means of the normal 368 total pledged and super delegates available in Michigan and Florida, only 184 will count at this time. So, there are approximately 221.5 uncommitted superdelegates counting Michigan and Florida and 240.5 pledged (84 in Montana, PR & SD plus 156.5 in MI & FL). Counting like you do 36 in the three remaining primaries gives Obama approximately 2017. Lets also give Obama another 44.5 pledged delegates (11 MI & 34.5 FL) for 2061.5. So at this point, he needs 148.5 to get to 2210 delegates. There are another 23 (156.5-44.5 Obama - 89 Clinton) Michigan and Florida pledged delegates that went to Edwards or “other” left over. You gave all of them to Obama, so I will too. This leaves Obama needing 125.5 superdelegates of the 221.5 remaining. While not overwhelming, it is a very significant number.

In other words, Hillary Clinton will want all delegates from Michigan and Florida seated or she will go to the convention. The RBC rules at this time will force them to cut the delegates in half. It is easy for Barack Obama to get to 2210 when all 4417 delegates are seated in full as you very eloquently wrote. It is not as easy when there are only 4233 delegates when you cut Michigan and Florida in half.

So, unless superdelegates overwhelmingly move towa...

2008-05-29T16:23:00.000-04:00

So, unless superdelegates overwhelmingly move toward Barack Obama and give him the 2210 delegates needed counting Florida and Michigan in full, there will be a fight on the convention floor.

This kind of logic annoys me no end. Look at the numbers! Obama doesn't need the superdelegates to "overwhelmingly" move towards him to get 2210 delegates.

Democratic Convention Watch has a little box showing the delegate count if Florida and Michigan count. It shows Obama as 127 delegates away from the nomination. Conservatively, Obama should get at least 36 delegates in the remaining contests. That leaves him with 91 delegates to go. Democratic Convention Watch only shows 22 of the 55 uncommitted Michigan delegates for Obama. Obama will almost certainly get virtually all of them. Let's say 53. So that gives him 31 more. 60 to go. This tabulation also shows 18 Edwards delegates - 12 from Florida, and 7 from elsewhere. Obama will get the lion's share of these. Let's give him another dozen. That gets him to 48. Obama also ought to get at least 19 of the 32 remaining add-on superdelegates - i.e., the ones chosen at state conventions where Obama will have a majority. That gets his needed total down to 29. It seems likely that Obama already has around that number committed to come out in support of him after June 3. And it's only 15% of the remaining non-add on or already selected add-on superdelegates. I suppose Obama might get somewhat less of the Michigan uncommitted and Edwards delegates than I posit, but even if he gets only 40 of the 55 Michigan delegates and only 5 of the 18 Edwards delegates, That still means he only needs 49 superdelegates.

The math is inexorable - this is not going to the convention. Obama will have 2210 at some point in June.

Re Kansas, liberals only make up 120 voters. That ...

2008-05-29T16:16:00.000-04:00

Re Kansas, liberals only make up 120 voters. That samples so small you couldn't deduce anything meaningful from it.

I wonder when the poll update is going to come.

2008-05-29T15:59:00.000-04:00

I wonder when the poll update is going to come.

Anyone check out the crosstabs in the new SUSA pol...

2008-05-29T15:50:00.000-04:00

Anyone check out the crosstabs in the new SUSA poll of Kansas. It has McCain winning overall, but there's a curious oddity in the poll. Obama wins self described liberals only by a 59%-30% margin. Thing is, liberals are the one group most likely to vote Democratic, even more so than self identifying Democrats. So, how is it that in the Kansas poll Obama wins liberals by such a weak margin?

I think the Rules Committee will definitely make a...

2008-05-29T15:20:00.000-04:00

I think the Rules Committee will definitely make a decision this weekend (though apparently they've been advised to get hotel rooms for Saturday night, because it may be a long meeting.)

Having the consent of both campaigns is an informal requirement, not a requirement under the rules. The reason it's always talked about is that if you can work out a compromise that both campaigns support, then you know the decision will be final and neither will appeal it to the Credentials Committee. Unfortunately, the indications certainly seem to be that the Clinton campaign wants to keep the nomination uncertain as long as possible, which is why they continue to refuse any compromise.

Since the range of possible decisions is fairly narrow, the most interesting news to come out of the meeting may be watching how the known Clinton supporters on the committee vote. That may provide a clue as to whether her campaign's "take it all the way to the convention" pose has enough support from delegates to look like a serious challenge, or whether it will just be seen as effectively filing a complaint about a process that's really over.

Cutting the number of delegates propagates roundin...

2008-05-29T15:01:00.000-04:00

Cutting the number of delegates propagates rounding error more than giving each delegate half a vote. If the state gets half the total delegates, that means each CD, the at-large and PLEO delegates are all cut in half, changing the breakpoints where you can pick up a delegate.

Consider a congressional district with 4 delegates. You would need (I guess) about 63% of the vote to get a 3-1 split. If that's cut in half, you get a 1.5-.5 vote difference. Now cut the delegation to 2 and give each a full vote. You need 75% of the vote to go 2-0 now (right? Not sure about that). So at 63%, where you were a vote up before, you're now tied.

I don't know how it'll actually go but that is my off-the-cuff theory here.

On First Read today Chuck Todd points out that the...

2008-05-29T14:47:00.000-04:00

On First Read today Chuck Todd points out that the net delegate allocation in FL\MI will be different depending on whether the RBC cut their delegates in half or seating them fully with 1/2 a vote each. Is this the case? Poblano Could you do an article explaining further?

Many thanks

Rasmussen has McCain only +6 in MS with 36% AA. Wh...

2008-05-29T14:18:00.000-04:00

Rasmussen has McCain only +6 in MS with 36% AA. What do you think?

The McClellan thing is interesting. We have the Bu...

2008-05-29T14:04:00.000-04:00

The McClellan thing is interesting. We have the Bush people reading from the same script about being "puzzled" by McClellan, and trying to imply that the guy has had a nervous breakdown. There seems to be some interesting stuff there, such as Bush being the one who personally authorized leaking the Plame information.

I have always thought that George W. himself is the political slash-and-burn artist there. I don't think it's been so much a Karl Rove operation as it's been a partnership between Rove and Bush. I think George W.'s fingerprints are on a lot more levers than people think.

One thing I'd love to know more about is the Jeff Gannon rentboy-turned-White House-reporter scandal that was so effectively swept under the carpet by McClellan and the White House press corps. I doubt anyone will ask about it, but it would be fascinating if someone would.

on #2. . .http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/29...

2008-05-29T13:59:00.000-04:00

on #2. . .
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/29/axelrod-exclusive-obama-s_n_104064.html

I agree with #2. It was very well done.About #3- I...

2008-05-29T13:57:00.000-04:00

I agree with #2. It was very well done.

About #3- I'm no expert, but I thought parties could choose the nominee however they want and that there are no legal due process rights for the process?

I wanted to ask why Obama's Rasmussen unfavorable ...

2008-05-29T13:40:00.000-04:00

I wanted to ask why Obama's Rasmussen unfavorable ratings are always so high?

It's evident in the RCP Favs-Unfavs ratings that since February, Obama's unfavs with rasmussen have been around 45% or higher.

No such high unfavorability rating is recorded for him by any other polster.

I've got a question. How likely will it be that t...

2008-05-29T13:31:00.000-04:00

I've got a question. How likely will it be that the Rules Committee will actually make a decision on Saturday? I've read somewhere (I think) that the Committee won't make a decision without the agreement of both campaigns. But the Clinton campaign doesn't seem inclined to compromise. In that case, there can't be a compromise, can there be? Or will the Rules Committee attempt to force a compromise on the Clinton campaign? Thanks for your opinion, in advance.

New Rasmussen polls:MississippiMcCain 50%Obama 44%...

2008-05-29T13:17:00.000-04:00

New Rasmussen polls:

Mississippi
McCain 50%
Obama 44%
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/mississippi/election_2008_mississippi_presidential_election

Alabama
McCain 60%
Obama 32%
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/alabama/election_2008_alabama_presidential_election

Mississippi might be a longshot swing state... but it looks like Alabama definitely won't be.

Re poll mentioned by lilnev, again quite a lot of ...

2008-05-29T13:03:00.000-04:00

Re poll mentioned by lilnev, again quite a lot of undecided votes, at 16%. Pretty odd.

The McCain presidency is already more than 50% lik...

2008-05-29T12:44:00.000-04:00

The McCain presidency is already more than 50% likely.

The strange thing is that Hillary and her supporters seem to think that, after all that's transpired, that she can somehow still win the election in November.

More and more as I listen to Hilary Clinton and he...

2008-05-29T12:22:00.000-04:00

More and more as I listen to Hilary Clinton and her supporters, I think they are fighting this all the way to the convention. Since according to the memo, the RBC can only hand out ½ the delegates in Michigan and Florida now (100% can be awarded at the convention), this will not be good enough for Hilary Clinton. This will give them the excuse to fight on to the convention using the disingenuous every vote must count talking point. (FYI, I just heard it again on MSNBC where a Clinton delegate said they would take it to the convention). They will not be satisfied unless they are given a facsimile to the Lanny Davis solution, which is overwhelmingly favorable to Hilary Clinton. So, unless superdelegates overwhelmingly move toward Barack Obama and give him the 2210 delegates needed counting Florida and Michigan in full, there will be a fight on the convention floor. Fighting on the convention floor for the nomination has always meant a loss for the candidate. Hopefully, for the good of the nation, superdelegates will give him the 2210 needed or I fear we will have a McCain presidency.

Here is a March 8th story where Obama aides tell t...

2008-05-29T11:29:00.000-04:00

Here is a March 8th story where Obama aides tell the WP they will travel to Iraq as soon as they have the nomination sewn up:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/03/07/AR2008030703318_pf.html