Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: NY-23 Re-Re-Re-Reconsidered

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2010-03-02T23:26:13.649-05:00

In one of the Siena polls the crosstabs showed tha...

2009-11-05T10:32:29.327-05:00

In one of the Siena polls the crosstabs showed that undecideds in the race had a 62% approval of President Obama. That was a good indicator they weren't going to break for Hoffman.

nkpolitics1279 said... ~~~~~~~~~~ Yeah, let's see...

2009-11-03T20:35:14.797-05:00

nkpolitics1279 said...
~~~~~~~~~~

Yeah, let's see how Democrats have been doing in this +1/+2 Rep NY district:

2008 - 35%
2006 - 37%
2004 - 29%
2002 - 0%
2000 - 23%
1998 - 21%
1996 - 25%
1994 - 18%
1992 - 21%
1990 - 38%
1988 - 25%
1986 - 0%
1984 - 29%
1982 - 28%

hmm, recently quite well, eh:

2008 - 35%
2006 - 37%
2004 - 29%
2002 - 0%

plus 1 or 2 Rep my ass!

take care

NY-23 is similar to NY-24- a +1 or +2 Republican D...

2009-11-03T20:24:48.447-05:00

NY-23 is similar to NY-24- a +1 or +2 Republican District held by Moderate Republicans for 20 years. But Democrats have a 50-50 chance of winning.

@filistro I wouldn't dare to wear a speedo, as th...

2009-11-03T13:32:19.874-05:00

@filistro

I wouldn't dare to wear a speedo, as they are kinda gross. But I am sexy.

MEMO TO: Joe Lieberman FROM: America RE: Your tenu...

2009-11-03T13:28:27.242-05:00

MEMO TO: Joe Lieberman
FROM: America
RE: Your tenure

Hello, Joe,

You know, we didn't really understand Al Gore's selection of you as VP candidate in 2000 other than to placate the Jewish vote. Personally, I think you had a hand in losing that election.

You left the Democrat Party in 2006. Okay, that was a slap in the face but we understood that it was a politically expedient move.

You backed John McCain for President in 2008. Well, that was pushing the envelope. You really expect to maintain respect in the Democratic Party after that? But we forgave you. You caucus with us and John McCain is the least insane member of the Republicans. We respect him. Okay, you can keep your chairmanship on the Domestic Security Council.

2009. You threaten to filibuster health care reform after several failed attempts. You object to the public option. You want to kill the bill before it ever reaches the floor? You think maybe Lincoln and Nelson or Bayh will join you in this folly? Are you nuts? You think you will get yet another pass for this?

You will not. You should declare yourself a Republican now. Join the 'Party of NO' Get out of town. You have used up your political capital and you must now face the consequences that Judas faced. Because that is what you are: a Benedict Arnold, a turncoat. We are done with you, sir.

Mr Universe.. LOL! It's easy to see how you won th...

2009-11-03T13:21:53.988-05:00

Mr Universe.. LOL! It's easy to see how you won the title.

Okay, okay... maybe you didn't win Mr Congeniality (but I'm betting you were dynamite in the Speedo contest ;-) and I'm sure you would have done a whole lot better on this question.

Thanks for making my day.

Mike said, You make me sick. Physically. 1) I am...

2009-11-03T13:06:48.392-05:00

Mike said,

You make me sick. Physically.

1) I am a Libertarian.
2) I am an Atheist.
3) I probably donate more of my hard-earned income to charity (more than 30%) than anyone else on this forum.
4) The eggs I fry are from my neighbor's back yard.
5) I work from home.
6) I have no desire to mow my lawn at 6am, but if I did, I would, and no one would stop me. (You see, I don't live in one of your inner city, or suburban communes; I live in a place where people are still free!) On the other hand, if my neighbor had an objection to me mowing my lawn at 6am, he'd ask me nicely to stop, rather than calling the gestapo.

More importantly, the founders of this country didn't want us to suffer any of the government-imposed rules and regulations that you just listed. If you had done any study of this yourself, you'd know that. But you probably only listened to your teachers and read only the revisionist history books.

Oh, and btw...

6) I am an immigrant. Many parts of the world still see America as that shining city on the hill. And frankly, if you don't like what this country is supposed to stand for, the principles upon which it was built, you should get the hell out.

But no, you're a typical liberal, you know, the ones that always threaten to move to Canada, but never do. (Or, if the Canadians have any sense, they turn you away at the border.)

Welcome to America. Welcome to diversity. Welcome to the freedom to have an opinion. And also welcome to the land where stupidity gets called out when it deserves to. I just called you out, dipshit.

I am:

1) Agnostic
2) Democrat
3) Fuck your 'holier than thou, I donate more to charity than you' bullshit.
4) I eat free range eggs
5) So?
6) We don't mow yards with gas guzzling mowers in my neighborhood (if we have lawns at all), we use push mowers so fuck your more sustainable than thou attitude. Besides, we respect our nieghbours to not disturb them at 6:00am.

Oh, and BTW,

6) [Because you can't count, dumbass.] Welcome to America. If you don't like it, GO THE FUCK BACK FROM WHERE YOU CAME!

Good for you, Mike. I like you a lot better when I...

2009-11-03T10:46:41.290-05:00

Good for you, Mike. I like you a lot better when I know that you actually live your principles.

It amuses me to see people who live in condos and work in cubicles, sporting Libertarian bumper stickers on their Volvos.

I like to think of you getting eggs from your neighbor :-)

filistro said... Mike said: Secondly, the governme...

2009-11-03T07:54:39.810-05:00

filistro said...
Mike said: Secondly, the government has no moral right whatsoever to compel me, you, or anyone else to be charitable. It is a progressive abomination that flies in the face of the founding of this country. How can I be able to pursue life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness when the government has that kind of power!

Oh, for goodness sake. You people are so wearying.

The government compels you to do all kinds of things from the very moment you wake up in the morning. You are required not to operate your lawnmower before breakfast. You fry up some eggs which have not been collected from your backyard, because you can't keep chickens in the city. You drive to work in your car which has to have a working muffler, and you'd better do up your seatbelt or it's going to cost you. Ditto for speeding through that school zone.

Get the picture? And you're just an hour into your day! So spare me all the impassioned paeans to "liberty."

In communal society liberty is ALWAYS curtailed.

And if your government compels you to share a bit of your wealth with your fellow man through taxes since you're too much of a hardhearted capitalist to do it voluntarily... well maybe they're just concerned with the eternal welfare of your immortal soul.
_____________

You make me sick. Physically.

1) I am a Libertarian.
2) I am an Atheist.
3) I probably donate more of my hard-earned income to charity (more than 30%) than anyone else on this forum.
4) The eggs I fry are from my neighbor's back yard.
5) I work from home.
6) I have no desire to mow my lawn at 6am, but if I did, I would, and no one would stop me. (You see, I don't live in one of your inner city, or suburban communes; I live in a place where people are still free!) On the other hand, if my neighbor had an objection to me mowing my lawn at 6am, he'd ask me nicely to stop, rather than calling the gestapo.

More importantly, the founders of this country didn't want us to suffer any of the government-imposed rules and regulations that you just listed. If you had done any study of this yourself, you'd know that. But you probably only listened to your teachers and read only the revisionist history books.

Oh, and btw...

6) I am an immigrant. Many parts of the world still see America as that shining city on the hill. And frankly, if you don't like what this country is supposed to stand for, the principles upon which it was built, you should get the hell out.

But no, you're a typical liberal, you know, the ones that always threaten to move to Canada, but never do. (Or, if the Canadians have any sense, they turn you away at the border.)

NATE any prediction for the other special electio...

2009-11-03T02:28:26.001-05:00

NATE

any prediction for the other special election today in CA-10 ?

how come no play at all on this one ?

just because it has a recent history of DEM winning, the 'odds' up front should have been just as strong that NY-23 would remain GOP since both districts had given the winning party over 60% in the 2008 election...

that would be comparing an apple to another apple - because IF CA-10 was to flip [or even be close] THAT would be a real story

but NY-23 NOT flipping should hardly be a story [unless the DEMs win or even come close]

this is all just a MSM & CON meme

please ADD CA-10 to the election watch list

Again, I don't think voters in NY-23 are that dumb...

2009-11-03T02:23:45.200-05:00

Again, I don't think voters in NY-23 are that dumb. They have been played by right wing conservatives. I think they will vote for the right people tomorrow. I don't think they will buy that Hoffman is that person. They know when they are being bamboozled.

Perhaps I'll eat crow but I don't think so.

@ Chas: I think that was Nate's point yesterday: t...

2009-11-03T01:44:43.759-05:00

@ Chas: I think that was Nate's point yesterday: that right-wingers will feel embolden by this win--even though a conservative of some kind was always going to win in this district--and they will start purging the moderates from races that right-wing conservatives can't possibly win. This means the dems will sweep in 2010. It's sad that the only way Dems seem capable of winning elections is when the opponent is busy destroying itself or has screwed up so royally that even their own supporters hate them.

My concern is that, with all the media and blogosh...

2009-11-03T00:34:49.759-05:00

My concern is that, with all the media and blogoshpheric focus on this single race, the import of the result will be blown out of proportion.

Fact is, this is one of the very few remaining conservative strongholds in the N.E. The last election was won by a Republican during a democratic sweep. This district has been held by Republicans since well into not just the last century, but the one before that. In the absence of some kind of split, this seat was always going to go to a conservative.

Had Scozza stuck around, it is possible that Owen could have snuck through the hole created by the republican split; in her absence, the polls make perfect sense - the undecideds in this conservative district will break conservatively, and Hoffman will win. Duh.

Unfortunately, given all the drama surrounding this podunk district in an off-year election, Hoffman's win will be trumpeted as some kind of conservative/republican resurgence, even though it was ALWAYS going to go to a conservative candidate - dem or republik.

Long term, this is good news for democrats. But tomorrow night, the coverage will be unwatchable.

It baffles me that Hoffman is ahead in the polls. ...

2009-11-03T00:29:34.275-05:00

It baffles me that Hoffman is ahead in the polls. He's not from the district. He doesn't seem to understand the issues and concerns of the people in that district. Outsiders--Sarah Palin and Dick Armey--are telling these voters who should be their rep. And Hoffman's pledged allegiance to Glenn Beck. I just can't help but believe that the majority of people, whether they're democrat, republican, or independent, are rational, and they would see that Hoffman is a trainwreck waiting to happen.

Happy GOPer: It's R+1. A Democrat winning here in ...

2009-11-03T00:06:19.308-05:00

Happy GOPer: It's R+1. A Democrat winning here in a normal environment in an open seat contest would be about even money.

That's speculation. There is a large "independent" contingent, and many of those "independents" may not be those who consider themselves "between" the two major parties but conservatives who refuse to affiliate themselves with Republicans. So the R+1 may be misleading depending on the makeup of the independents.

I'm really tired of the spin on NY-23. "It went for Obama, so a Democratic defeat would be devastating!" "It's majority Republican and has been so for over a century, so a Republican defeat would be devastating!" Truth is it's one district that's not representative of the nation in a quirky special election with specific candidates. It's not a referendum on anything, much less a national referendum. It is what it is, nothing more.

People are hungry for some proxy to gauge the national mood, and this is the only one of the few we have. But just because it's only one of the few doesn't mean it's a good one, nor are any of the others.

Sure, let's root for whomever we want to root for. But let's not pretend that it means much outside the preferences of those who happen to actually bother to vote in a single district tomorrow.

The voter turn out is of more interest to me. It w...

2009-11-02T22:17:41.414-05:00

The voter turn out is of more interest to me.
It will be interesting to see if the GOP base is alive or in hiding.

Mike said: Secondly, the government has no moral r...

2009-11-02T22:15:24.502-05:00

Mike said: Secondly, the government has no moral right whatsoever to compel me, you, or anyone else to be charitable. It is a progressive abomination that flies in the face of the founding of this country. How can I be able to pursue life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness when the government has that kind of power!

Oh, for goodness sake. You people are so wearying.

The government compels you to do all kinds of things from the very moment you wake up in the morning. You are required not to operate your lawnmower before breakfast. You fry up some eggs which have not been collected from your backyard, because you can't keep chickens in the city. You drive to work in your car which has to have a working muffler, and you'd better do up your seatbelt or it's going to cost you. Ditto for speeding through that school zone.

Get the picture? And you're just an hour into your day! So spare me all the impassioned paeans to "liberty."

In communal society liberty is ALWAYS curtailed.

And if your government compels you to share a bit of your wealth with your fellow man through taxes since you're too much of a hardhearted capitalist to do it voluntarily... well maybe they're just concerned with the eternal welfare of your immortal soul. (You're a Republican so I assume you believe you posess one of those, right?)

Longtime reader, first time commenter. Glad to see...

2009-11-02T22:10:09.878-05:00

Longtime reader, first time commenter. Glad to see the "First!" nonsense has been eradicated since I last read the comments on here. It's still a great site by the way Nate.

As a Libertarian, I am pleased with the events of NY-23. I do think it is a victory for conservatives, not necessarily Republicans. We've managed to force out a Republican pretender and put in someone who actually claims to have conservative values.
Although many of Hoffman's positions are far too militaristic for me.

malevole1 said... Dissenting views = good for the ...

2009-11-02T21:57:03.757-05:00

malevole1 said...
Dissenting views = good for the site.

Calling the candidate "Scuzzobama" and other users "stupid libs" = damaging to the site.
__________

But right-wing kook-fringe nutjob is OK?

I see...

Mr. Universe said... This is a huge victory for co...

2009-11-02T21:55:38.508-05:00

Mr. Universe said...
This is a huge victory for conservatives.

No, it is not. It has been a Republican spot for 150 years. No one expects the Democrat to pick it up. But if he does, you are forever to be ridiculed on this site. I am so hoping Owens pulls this off. And I don't even care about this little race.
____________

Emphasis mine. There is such a thing as a conservative Democrat you know? Do you think they're happy with the current liberal agenda being rammed down our throats by Congress? Is that per chance why Hoffman is running away with NY-23 ? (Ignore the poll results -- look at the trends; Hoffman is clearly surging in all the polls!)

filistro said... No, Bart DePalma, I don't subscri...

2009-11-02T21:50:14.905-05:00

filistro said...
No, Bart DePalma, I don't subscribe to every one of those principles. Hardly any of them, in fact. Nor do I think most of them have much place in the arena of politics or lawmaking.

For example, I don't believe my family is "sacred." (And if you attended our Thanksgiving dinner, you'd probably agree ;-)

I think the government (or society, if you like) has every right to force people to be charitable if the alternative is a country without a social safety net for the deeply unfortunate.

I believe the people DO, in many cases, answer to the government, which after all we have collectively empowered with the right to make and enforce laws.

Most passionately, I don't believe "God is the center of my life." I am a thoughtful, cheerful agnostic. It's perfectly all right for me to be agnostic. What's more, I will continue to deploy all my considerable energy and resources to defeat any and all politicians who seek to make THEIR God the center of MY life.
______

if you knew anything about Beck's 9 principles, you'd know that he doesn't believe you need to attest to all 9 of them to be part of the process. He said 6 was enough.

Secondly, the government has no moral right whatsoever to compel me, you, or anyone else to be charitable. It is a progressive abomination that flies in the face of the founding of this country. How can I be able to pursue life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness when the government has that kind of power!

Pragmatus, Sure McHugh won with 65 percent. I am...

2009-11-02T21:28:55.422-05:00

Pragmatus,

Sure McHugh won with 65 percent. I am aware of that. He also has been in congress since 1992. But his popularity had much more to do with the fact that he was John McHugh than that he was a Republican.

But Mike Castle is popular in Delaware and won with 60 percent of the vote as well. That hardly has an bearing on any Republican running for the House - and because of the overall mood of the electorate, Castle's relative popularity notwithstanding, a Democrat is highly favored to win the seat.

Partisan Voting Index dominates much more in open seat contests.

@Jacob re: angry homosexual We have a poster who...

2009-11-02T21:19:12.598-05:00

@Jacob

re: angry homosexual

We have a poster who is rather impassioned about gay rights (particularly after a couple of glasses of late night wine). His pedigree and education make for scathing commentary if you happen to be on the wrong side of the argument.

I'll take a dozen of him over PK, MR, & BDP any day.

My nominee for Angry Homosexual, from last weekend...

2009-11-02T21:17:50.047-05:00

My nominee for Angry Homosexual, from last weekend’s Halloween festivities here in West Hollywood CA.