Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Road to 270: North Carolina

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2009-10-08T05:14:08.241-04:00

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2009-02-16T22:47:00.000-05:00

Using Pollster.com's excellent interactive feature...

2008-10-02T03:45:00.000-04:00

Using Pollster.com's excellent interactive feature, I've just compared Google Insights graphs of the parties' popularity in NC with Pollster.com graphs of the candidates in the same "toss-up" state. Interesting similarities and contrasts... See my Word Face-Off blog.

A look at voter registration is illuminating. In ...

2008-08-23T11:31:00.000-04:00

A look at voter registration is illuminating.

In May 2004 (the last date available prior to the 2004 election:

Dems 2,408,759
Reps 1,750,359
Diff 658,400

In January 2008 the Dem/Rep registration difference was:

Dems 2,511,446
Reps 1,919,575
Diff 591,871

Republicans picked up about 67,000 registered voters between 2004 and early 2008

On August 23, it was:

Dems 2,679,991
Reps 1,939,250
Diff 740,741

That's a pickup of nearly 150,000 registered voters since January, and 83,000 since 2004. What's more remarkable is the shift in the number of African American voters:

May 2004: 984,578
January 5: 1,128,082
August 23: 1,232,097

That's an increase of nearly 250,000 since 2004, who, if they turn out, will vote at 90%+ for Obama.

Hard to believe this shift is reflected in polling.

Early voting is a HUGE deal, and should not be ove...

2008-08-22T23:37:00.000-04:00

Early voting is a HUGE deal, and should not be overlooked as a factor in Obama's chances at taking NC. His campaign brilliantly wove their NC primary strategy around NC's "One Stop" voting (which changed this year to include an allowance for on-site registration as well as open early/absentee voting for all registered voters). The put heavy emphasis on early voting, especially amongst their key constituencies (young voters, African-American voters, and academic/techies). They had an enormous lead coming out of early voting, enough to give them a win on election day even if Clinton had outperformed them in the polls on that day by up to around a 3% margin. If Obama and Clinton had polled 50/50 on May 6, Obama's lead from early voting would still have netted him a 5% victory in NC.

The latest Civitas poll, which gave McCain a 6% lead overall, also showed that that lead comes entirely from the "election day voters" (just over half the sample). Obama is ahead amongst the roughly one third of the sample who are "early voters" and amongst the remaining voters (9%) who haven't yet decided whether they will vote early or vote on election day. Keep in mind that Civitas is a Republican pollster; it's not idle curiosity that spurred them to ask the question.

If I wanted to gauge Obama's seriousness about NC, I would look to see where he was on October 15/16. Will he hold an early vote kick-off event here like he did for the primaries (last time, it was a major rally at UNC-Chapel Hill on the night before primary early voting started, followed the next morning by Hoops w/ Heels). If they make the same kind of push in October that they did in April, then you can kiss your prevailing wisdom goodbye.

Another thing about the model: while military towns generically might play to McCain, in NC the military towns don't break that cleanly. Fayetteville, in particular, seems like it might offer a chance to run up Dem numbers - and Obama did a lot of groundwork there in the primary. Look at primary voting in Onslow and Cumberland Counties and the NC "military" red seems pinkish, at best. Those folks want to come home. Too many tours, too many families missing their loved ones for too long. And not making shit pay for all that. It's not a given that Republicans win the for real military votes anymore.

A quick rebuttal: For those who say Bush won big a...

2008-08-22T20:54:00.000-04:00

A quick rebuttal: For those who say Bush won big after the polling showed the race at 5% in the late 2004 campaign . . . What was the BIG difference between Kerry and Bush . . . GOTV . . . DO I HAVE TO SPELL IT OUT FOR YOU???

Jonathan, me too, I was a Clinton supporter though...

2008-08-22T20:31:00.000-04:00

Jonathan, me too, I was a Clinton supporter though it was very hard to swallow her Iraq vote. I said to myself she had the presidential race in mind and if Schumer isn't even going to vote no why should I stick my neck out? That was back in the day when most people assumed Bush could run a simple war competently. Obama didn’t though, bless him. Anyway, I fell off the Clinton wagon when she went negative of her fellow dem; I thought that plagiarism charge was slimy and disingenuous

Now I sitting her hoping he would announce that he picked her for VP because I’m convinced she would seal the deal and we could start to get some decent courts back. I’m sorry to hear that she being picked VP is very improbable. I thought smart guys would do smart things when push came to shove. I hope its polls and not ego that makes Obama think he can spend money well in NC or MT for instance and that he can just pick any one of four white guys and he won’t get burned. I think McCain will at that point pick a woman and have instant change to go along with his instant coffee. That’s just making it too easy for the old guy.

To use italics, just surround text with POINTY BRACKETiPOINTY BRACKET POINTY BRACKET/iPOINTY BRACKET.

As for Clinton and smears I personally felt that Obama was doing similar things, he certainly benefitted from a constant stream of negative press about Hilary he did very little about and his surrogates often went after Clinton in silly ways.

No problem. Even though I am now strongly in Obama...

2008-08-22T20:09:00.000-04:00

No problem. Even though I am now strongly in Obama's camp I was a loyal Clinton supporter so I still have a tendency to criticize Obama harshly out of habit.(how do you do italics?)

Jonathan, me too, I was a Clinton supporter though it was very hard to swallow her Iraq vote. I said to myself she had the presidential race in mind and if Schumer isn't even going to vote no why should I stick my neck out? That was back in the day when most people assumed Bush could run a simple war competently. Obama didn’t though, bless him. Anyway, I fell off the Clinton wagon when she went negative of her fellow dem; I thought that plagiarism charge was slimy and disingenuous

Now I sitting her hoping he would announce that he picked her for VP because I’m convinced she would seal the deal and we could start to get some decent courts back. I’m sorry to hear that she being picked VP is very improbable. I thought smart guys would do smart things when push came to shove. I hope its polls and not ego that makes Obama think he can spend money well in NC or MT for instance and that he can just pick any one of four white guys and he won’t get burned. I think McCain will at that point pick a woman and have instant change to go along with his instant coffee. That’s just making it too easy for the old guy.

As a North Carolinian, I find the chance that Obam...

2008-08-22T19:43:00.000-04:00

As a North Carolinian, I find the chance that Obama is pulling close here compelling. He has outspent here in ads and ground game. In fact the TV spots are so commonplace here that I've seen them aired with the local news every night for weeks now. The only McCain ads I've seen are from the "free media." In fact, Obama even had a surprise visit in Greensboro today and it generated a lot of press. He is also putting field offices in towns that have never had them before. His GOTV here is going to be excellent. Given this plus the demographic shifts in the state (similar to North Va but with a large addition of an ever growing hispanic voting block). The fact that Dems have dominated our state government makes me think a slight victory is possible. If he wins NC, I predict a win in Va, too.

As for the larger picture, the media made it a horse race, Republicans will vote for McCain out of fear, and the Conventions and debates will change everything. Getting all the Dems under the same tent is necessary, Hillary has to deliver like a true political professional and hopefully the Obama team is going to use these speeches to remind voters why the Republican brand is wrong and McCain is been there with them every step of the way. Obama must also use this time to educate the public about his tax policies vs. McCain. THIS IS HIS TRUMP CARD. How much money will average Americans leave on the table in order to vote for the 2nd coming of Herbert Hoover???? I also think the VP pick is of little consequence, except for the fact that that Obama gets a two-headed message machine one week earlier than McCain. I also believe McCain's message machine is more likely to trip up with the addition because their candidate can never stay on message and contradictions are likely to resurface with two pompous wind bags running around the country as character ASSASSins.

Besides the outcome being close helps GOTV big time.

Jonathan, I apologies, sorry my mistake, I should ...

2008-08-22T19:24:00.000-04:00

Jonathan, I apologies, sorry my mistake, I should not have assumed you were pegging the margin at 10% because you wished Obama bad results. I'll say two things. I agree that Obama will not win NC unless their is a landslide caused by a tsunami. I wish he would spend his money and time/visits on the real swing states. But I don't think NC will be 10 points plus off his national winning margin. Tell Texas turns blue, be well

No problem. Even though I am now strongly in Obama's camp I was a loyal Clinton supporter so I still have a tendency to criticize Obama harshly out of habit.

Folks...this excitement thing based on signs and b...

2008-08-22T19:10:00.000-04:00

Folks...this excitement thing based on signs and bumber stickers and volunteers is confirmation bias on your part. I live in TN and Obama is down between 15-25 pts here. Obama bumber stickers outnumber McCain 5 to 1. Same with yardsigns. Obama will not win a single Southern state. Look at RCP 2004 during the summer. Some polls had Bush only up by 3-5 in NC in July and August. ARG poll was Bush up 5 in September and Research 2000 had Bush up 3 in August. NC will be solid McCain by late Oct. Keep on dreaming about NC, and the GOP can keep on dreaming about MN.

Jonathan, I apologies, sorry my mistake, I should ...

2008-08-22T19:06:00.000-04:00

If it's not Bayh, you can probably get an Obama-Ba...

2008-08-22T19:01:00.000-04:00

If it's not Bayh, you can probably get an Obama-Bayh bumper sticker pretty cheap.

I dunno, the main problem I see here is...

The two main candidates for Veep are Biden and Bayh. They each have a son named Beau. So why haven't seen any headlines like:

"Both Beau Bayh and Beau Biden Bide for Belated Barnstorming"?

borderspeak,If you really knew me, you'd find out ...

2008-08-22T19:00:00.000-04:00

borderspeak,

If you really knew me, you'd find out that you had zero basis for any of those accusations. And I certainly don't "wrap up my ego in being better than others because I'm white."

I won't defend Repbulicans for any of their policies and how they relate to the black community because

A) I'm not Republican, and

B) Even if I was, debating the merits, or lack thereof, of Republican policies would be an exercise in futility judging by your sharp tone.

But I will say that Democrats have failed miserably at bringing the black community up too? And why is that? Stubborn partisn wrangling with Republicans keeping them from actually making inroads to correcting some of the problems? No. Not at all. It's because there are many, and I mean a bunch, in the Democratic party who no more care for blacks than holes in their socks. They've created "wedge" issues that are defining for blacks and then exploited their votes by claiming to champion those causes. But the bulk of the (Democratic) party no more truly cares than those running the Republican show.

That's a fact. Take it to the bank. And quit deceiving yourself by thinking otherwise.

I think most telling was just earlier this year when Bill Clinton, yes THE Bill Clinton, the Democrats' idol, dismissed Barack Obama as nothing more than Jesse Jackson Lite. And who doesn't care about blacks?

Well, the reports today seem to highlight the Obam...

2008-08-22T18:59:00.000-04:00

Well, the reports today seem to highlight the Obama/Clinton split. Clinton told reporters today that she never said she would accept a VP offer, so speculation that it might be her was inappropriate. The Politico report ("Dem insider")claimed she was never asked for concern she might not say yes. Wow! I think the Clinton VP talk finally died today.

If it's Bayh I'm taking credit for breaking it to ...

2008-08-22T18:53:00.001-04:00

If it's Bayh I'm taking credit for breaking it to 538. I want some sort of 538 t-shirt or something Nate.

Dave said...I'm seeing a tremendous amount of exci...

2008-08-22T18:53:00.000-04:00

Dave said...

I'm seeing a tremendous amount of excitement and energy for Obama in Raleigh, and practically nothing for McCain. When I've ventured out to do canvassing in more rural areas, I'd say it's been about 40% strong McCain support, 20% strong Obama support, and 40% undecided/apathetic.

------------

Cool, Dave, thanks. In the rural areas it looks like you've identified your 1's, 2's and 3's. Make sure the 1's register and vote early, keep trying to persuade the 2's to become 1's and slash the tires of the 3's on election day (I kid, I kid).

that bumper sticker looks nothing like an Obama on...

2008-08-22T18:52:00.000-04:00

that bumper sticker looks nothing like an Obama one. They are not going to abandon 2 years of branding and put a star on it to make it look like McCain's. That is the sure tell.
2. I have no sources on this except the fact that they need to pull ads to rotate new ones because of the convention. They don't want ads running once the conventions tarts that are not the same exact message and that have the new Obama/X on the tag line

realistxxx said: I doubt this rumor is confirmatio...

2008-08-22T18:50:00.000-04:00

realistxxx said: I doubt this rumor is confirmation.

I thought the same thing (about multiples). That's why I asked...but if it's true...remember you heard it here first!

:)

Those bumper stickers need time to be designed and...

2008-08-22T18:49:00.001-04:00

Those bumper stickers need time to be designed and produced. It´s very unlikely that they knew about it and the whole press didnt, because at least until Obama called the refused contenders yesterday evening, there were just a handful of people knowing about the decision.

Maybe the Obama campaign wants to save money during the convention week...I heard that they stopped the ads because of something related to the convention... maybe they also mean that they wont run negative ads during the good-times-convention.

@ North Carolina: I doubt there is a way for Obama to win there without also winning in Virginia, and thus, NC is a bit meaningless. The senate race could be very interesting though, and maybe NC will be the Virginia of 2012.

Jonathan has a little more partisan dissing than f...

2008-08-22T18:49:00.000-04:00

Jonathan has a little more partisan dissing than facts. If you rank the 29 states that Bush won in 2004, NC was his 21st best showing, a 12% margin. The idea that Obama would lose by a 10% margin seems to ignore two important facts. Obama is very popular with blacks, (for a long time now the smartest voter group in America). Secondly, Obama is trying a lot harder than Kerry in NC.

You can't make unfavorable demographics go away. You can talk about the ground game and unleashing massive turnout all you want, but that will do nothing to change the fact that the fundamentals of the state are still strongly Republican. Black turnout is perfectly solid to begin with, the idea that Obama will be able to ride to victory with it was rather simply disproven by the primary (yes, he needed to win by more than 14 to have a real shot, when the electorate is 34% black and you only win by 14% that is not good as the % of black voters will be lopped in half for the general).

Also, "partisan"? No need to impugn your fellow Democrats that way.