Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Obama: Highest Initial Approval For Elected Presid...

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2009-09-29T23:09:40.698-04:00

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So, let's see, we have a website published by a gu...

2009-02-09T11:05:00.000-05:00

So, let's see, we have a website published by a guy from Chicago, who's associated with the University of Chicago, and the DailyKos, spouting off about the "approval" of Obama. Gosh, now, let's see, he couldn't be the least bit - oh, over the top biased, could he? Enjoying that check from George Soros to pay for your website, Nate? Or is this one funded by the Obama campaign?

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2009-02-08T03:42:00.000-05:00

Going back and checking this prediction- Obama's ...

2009-01-24T13:25:00.000-05:00

Going back and checking this prediction- Obama's first approval rating, according to Gallup, was 68/ 12/ 20, well below your prediction of 76.

It seems that any bounce was already in the pre-inauguration polling (which has never been this copious before).

about sums it up:comic strip

2009-01-20T12:43:00.000-05:00

about sums it up:

comic strip

this style of chart is the type that would have be...

2009-01-20T12:31:00.000-05:00

this style of chart is the type that would have been better suited for trying to convey the RURAL/SUB/URBAN voting shares in the previous post

except rather than using %s, it would be better to use millions of votes for that one so we could see at a glance how the demos of the RURAL/SUB/URBAN shares of the electorate have shifted over the years

plus, another failure of the previous chart attempting to compare RURAL/SUB/URBAN vote was that the amount of 3rd party votes was left out of the display

I would presume that in 2000 Nader drew mostly down in the URBAN & maybe SUB demos

but for CLINTON in 92 & 96, where did PEROT have the most impact on the margins - which is how CLINTON was able to secure the victory

Nate showed us only the derived margin of victory in each category - but that left out valuable data that could have been easily displayed & convey more info imho

@ Rick: feel free to name your measure for "worse ...

2009-01-20T02:23:00.000-05:00

@ Rick: feel free to name your measure for "worse off" and stats to back it up.

Or do you just mean that as a Republican, then in years with a Democratic president, that you personally feel rejected?

The ONE...I just love the pseudo-snarkiness.By the...

2009-01-20T00:07:00.000-05:00

The ONE...I just love the pseudo-snarkiness.

By the way, historically the economy has performed better when Democrat ideals are in charge.

Voodoo economics anyone?

Hey guys, check this outhttp://www.foxnews.com/sto...

2009-01-19T21:51:00.000-05:00

Hey guys, check this out

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,144315,00.html

FOXNEWS can't even accurately represent and calculate it's own (already skewed)
data about Bush approval ratings.

How can 51% be the average of 61% and 37%. Even averaging all the years yields 49.75%!!!!

The disapproval numbers are off also.

Let me guess, his first term is weighted because we were attacked on 9-11.

Let me guess, his first term is weighted because we were attacked on 9-11.

@Itzajob: You wrote, "Interesting how Obama's hig...

2009-01-19T21:23:00.000-05:00

@Itzajob: You wrote, "Interesting how Obama's high popularity at home and abroad has not helped the country's reputation in the world."

I could be wrong, but my impression is that Obama was not president when those polls were taken. The world is not going to change its opinion of the U.S. government until it sees a different government in power and in action. God willing, that new era will happen soon -- like tomorrow.

Watch.

I would be interested in seeing the breakdown of a...

2009-01-19T18:52:00.000-05:00

I would be interested in seeing the breakdown of approval/disapproval along a sliding scale of support/opposition

my guess is that the 'soft' approval support is where the #'s have grown

the squishy middle is willing to say 'approve' during this honeymoon period - but they are notoriously fickle as the election polling showed all summer & into the fall

what I really want to know is IF the 40% strong approval base has expanded or contracted

'approval' at this moment in time appears to be a direct reflection of the converse 'disapproval' of BUSH perhaps more so than a referendum on Obama combined with a modicum of desperation for something/anything that can give us HOPE

personally, I am now no longer in the strong 'approval' base - having migrated reluctantly to 'soft' approval since Warren & the failure of Obama to directly answer or properly address this pandering to the evangelicals on 'our' Inauguration Day

yes, I said 'our' since Barack even today continues to say this Inauguration is all about the we, us & ours who elected him to deliver real CHANGE we can BELIEVE in for EVERYONE...

apparently more so for the evangelicals who 'deserve' this honor...

sorry, but I did not donate + work my arse off to help win FL for OBAMA & progressive causes just to be thrown under the bus for political expediency

so my approval is faded to 'soft' until actions speak louder than platitudes

Interesting how Obama's high popularity at home an...

2009-01-19T17:49:00.000-05:00

Interesting how Obama's high popularity at home and abroad has not helped the country's reputation in the world. Today's Reuters-Ipsos poll (http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSTRE50I2OH20090119) is pretty dismal. Would love to hear Nate's view about this after the inauguration!

@Mardi: You wrote "Considering all the mud that w...

2009-01-19T16:46:00.000-05:00

@Mardi: You wrote "Considering all the mud that was thrown at Obama during the election and how ugly the Republicans are today, I find it astonishing that he has such high approval ratings."

I also find it impressive. Could it be that a lot of former Bush supporters are feeling sheepish about having been duped for so long by Bush, Rove, et al.? And they are grateful not to be ostracized by the many (or the leader of the many) who could easily be shouting "I told you so" at the top of their lungs.

Yes, we let them be considered a part of this civic nation. But they had better remain on good behavior because they contributed sooo much to the bad situation that we're all in now.

I see that Ronald (the God) Reagan had a 50% appro...

2009-01-19T15:58:00.000-05:00

I see that Ronald (the God) Reagan had a 50% approval - the LOWEST of any of the Presidents graphed. LOWEST. I've been listening to the villiage idiots on cable and the number quoted for Reagan is like 86%. And no one has ever challenged that!!!!!! I couln't understand it, and sure enough, it wasn't/isn't true. Why is there no accuracy in cable tv?

@ MatadorI always look forward to your posts.They ...

2009-01-19T15:11:00.000-05:00

@ Matador

I always look forward to your posts.They make me smile and feel good.

You've got to be one sweet person.

The best recent inauguration, for melodrama at lea...

2009-01-19T15:09:00.000-05:00

The best recent inauguration, for melodrama at least, was Shrub's first, when demonstrators succeeded in throwing eggs at the Presidential limousine.

He started out his time under a shower of eggs, ended it under a shower of shoes.

The more important question is what will he accomp...

2009-01-19T14:48:00.000-05:00

The more important question is what will he accomplish in the first few months.

Will he get a running start and work on honoring his campaign pledges?

Or will he cower in fear of being called partisan by the very people that brought us to the brink?

Yeah, that will suck if he does that - "cowers in fear of being call partisan".

But it will still suck a lot less than have George W. Bush as president!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

And this still beats the crap out of the inauguration on Jan 20, 2005!!!!!!!!!

Vote said... There were potentially 1391 double...

2009-01-19T14:33:00.000-05:00

Vote said...
There were potentially 1391 double counted votes in the Minnesota Senate Recount [PDF]
But it probably won't matter.

The key here is "potentially". But since there were NOT more votes than voters in those districts, it's more likely they weren't double counted than they were.

Considering all the mud that was thrown at Obama d...

2009-01-19T14:31:00.000-05:00

Considering all the mud that was thrown at Obama during the election and how ugly the Republicans are today, I find it astonishing that he has such high approval ratings. It seems like the only people who don't approve of him are the die-hard 28%ers who still think Bush was a good President. And they are proof positive that there's no cure for stupid.