Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Turnout in Puerto Rico

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Lot of you are saying PR shouldn't count because i...

2008-06-01T00:18:00.000-04:00

Lot of you are saying PR shouldn't count because it's a territory. Hard to reconcile that stance with "playing by the rules", since the DNC says PR does count. If you personally don't want to count them because they won't be a factor in the general, then don't count any of the solid red- and blue-states either because they won't matter to the result either. At least be consistent in your counting or lack thereof.

As to the 275,000 votes Clinton needs, last I checked RCP it was 165,000 including Florida. Your number includes caucus estimates. If you're going to drop Michigan because no one knows how many people really voted for Obama (and RCP included several MI estimates in their popular vote spreadsheet a few weeks ago), then counting caucuses that won't reveal how many people showed up at all and whom they supported strikes me as cherry-picking which soft numbers you want to include. In any case, the 165,000 mark is the only hard popular vote number we have now that the Rules committee has validated the Florida primary, and it is definitely the number Clinton will be using. Your analysis should be based on that if you are attempting to predict whether Clinton will claim the popular vote after PR.

The Michigan DNC chairman said there were 30,000 w...

2008-05-31T23:58:00.000-04:00

The Michigan DNC chairman said there were 30,000 write-in votes that were thrown away since the election wasn't supposed to count. That's why people were told to vote for uncommitted. They considered those votes as mostly for Obama. It really bothers me that HRC keeps saying she won the popular vote, by counting only ballots with her name printed on them regardless of context.

I would also like to add that I agree with the com...

2008-05-31T11:11:00.000-04:00

I would also like to add that I agree with the commenters who are stating that the whole popular vote metric argument is insane. This nomination process was never about the popular vote. You just can't add votes from different types of primaries (open, closed, semi-open) and particularly caucuses (14 states!) and primaries where neither candidate campaigned (florida & michigan) & and one primary where one candidate ran basically unopposed (michigan.) It's just absolute madness that people are paying any credence to the popular vote argument. It's such a deceitful ploy by the Clinton campaign - it reminds me so much of George W. Bush & Rovian politics. It's elitism of the worst kind - They are misleading people because they figure folks are too stupid to know any better. And unfortunately (in the case of many Clinton supporters) this is true.

I'm hoping for a Clinton win of under 20% and a tu...

2008-05-31T11:06:00.000-04:00

I'm hoping for a Clinton win of under 20% and a turnout of under 600K - If Obama then wins SD & Montana by double digits - one would hope that would silence the Clinton supporters. It's pretty crazy considering Clinton's constant yammering about how she's "won the big states" that she now seems to be counting on a popular vote win in... Puerto Rico (which as everyone knows doesn't even vote in the general election) --- it's just absolutely nuts.

The relatively new book Nudge describes another re...

2008-05-30T21:00:00.000-04:00

The relatively new book Nudge describes another reason why poll numbers overshoot the real number: According to the authors, people who have been asked whether or not they will vote are more likely to actually vote than people who have not been asked (even if they were exactly as likely to vote beforehand). Being asked activates some sort of psychological planning trigger or something.

I may be alone in this but I think it's reasonable...

2008-05-30T12:55:00.000-04:00

I may be alone in this but I think it's reasonable for Clinton to include Michigan in the popular vote total if you credit all the "uncommitted" votes to Obama.

Giving Obama those votes produces a net of about +90,000 votes in MI for Clinton, which means she'd have to win PR by about 210,000 to make a credible claim to the popular vote.

Seems like a high bar to clear.

The popular vote is such nonsense. If Hillary Cli...

2008-05-30T09:58:00.001-04:00

The popular vote is such nonsense. If Hillary Clinton and her supporters use Puerto Rico in the popular as how America thinks and anyone believes it, then we as a nation are dumber than I thought. My mother happens to be from a US territory (not PR) so I am kind of partial to them, but come on. If Hillary Clinton and her supporters want to use Puerto Rico which can't vote in the general in her popular vote total and not count the state I live in, Washington (a caucus state) which does, there is definitely something wrong here.

Poblano - you, more than anyone, should continue t...

2008-05-30T09:58:00.000-04:00

Poblano - you, more than anyone, should continue to point out in every analysis that there is no such thing as a popular vote in a primary.

If it were a relevant metric, there would be no such thing as a caucus state, let alone the FOURTEEN that decided to hold them.

It's actually interesting to see the Obama/Clinton...

2008-05-30T09:17:00.000-04:00

It's actually interesting to see the Obama/Clinton spread with and without an LV screen. Where there are other polls published like that?
The impression is that elsehere, LV would be better for Obama, not for Clinton. Why is PR the opposite? Who are those low-information PR Obama supporters?

New Rasmussen NY poll:Clinton +30Obama +1950% of N...

2008-05-30T08:55:00.000-04:00

New Rasmussen NY poll:
Clinton +30
Obama +19

50% of NY Democrats believe Clinton should drop out, 52% of Republicans want her to stay in.

PR really does seem a wild card - I guess the disp...

2008-05-30T08:37:00.000-04:00

PR really does seem a wild card - I guess the disparity of opinion on matters like turnout indicate the vast uncertainty of what is going to happen. If it goes massively for Hillary, look for the "Obama can't court Hispanics" mantra to be touted by HRC's camp.

On another note, what's with the Michigan polls? Another with McCain leading, but again upwards of 15% undecided. Are there really that many folks who don't know how they will vote??

Oh and don't forget who reads the papers, and spec...

2008-05-30T08:08:00.000-04:00

Oh and don't forget who reads the papers, and specifically the stuff that covers foreign elections. It is the "well-informed" upper middle class, which form the core of Obama's base in America... That is why most of those international polls are problematic.

A similar poll was conducted in Canada, and found ...

2008-05-30T08:06:00.000-04:00

A similar poll was conducted in Canada, and found Obama would win 32-18 (50% undecided) either as a Liberal or Conservative against our own politicians (and Obama won 2-1 among Democrats abroad in Canada).

I think the international polls are mostly reflective of name recognition and an extremely narrow range of issues. Do a google trends Clinton vs. Obama race (a reasonable international comparison, that admittedly doesn't count the developing world). Obama kills Clinton.

Clinton's strengths are in grasp of policy and domestic issues - and that isn't going to translate well to indifferent Canadians or Europeans. By contrast, Obama is the vaguely leftish and inspirational candidate we are supposed to like - and that is something that is much easier to convey (plus Obama's better looking).