Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Dartmouth Study: Minnesota Undervotes Should Favor...

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2009-10-02T05:44:52.470-04:00

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2009-04-16T04:43:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-08T21:44:00.000-05:00

Jeff,An excellent point. Though I don't think I'm...

2008-11-17T11:25:00.000-05:00

Jeff,
An excellent point. Though I don't think I'm completely incorrect here, as I have noticed this issue before and it is a reminder each time, so it is an aggravation of sorts. On the whole though, I'd probably cede the point to you.

Ryan,
Great catch.

Joe,
I'm not sure I understand what you're going for. I was simply trying to make a point about liable vs. likely. And let me say that all of us make grammatical and usage errors (like calling "liable" instead of "likely" a grammatical error) this is one I've seen quite a few times here.

Thanks to all those with interests in math (or at least politics) and language.

Kos is reporting that Franken picked up a net of 2...

2008-11-16T10:08:00.000-05:00

Kos is reporting that Franken picked up a net of 2 in the audit.

Out of 90 reclassified votes impacting Franken or Coleman, Franken won 46 of them (counting a lost Coleman vote as a Franken win), or 51.1%. As noted above, the audited precincts voted for Coleman 51.4%-48.6%. Franken would thus have a statewide win rate of 52.5% if these results repeat across the state.

The audit also suggests 2025 reclassified votes statewide. If Franken wins only 52.5% of them, he will pick up only 101 votes. The binomial distribution argues there is only about a 1% chance of him winning in this case.

On the other hand, maybe his true, underlying win rate is better than the sample seen in the audit. For example using the binomial distribution, the probability that Franken would have won 46 votes if his true audit win rate were 53.6% is 7.5%. That audit win rate would project to a statewide win rate of 55% and a 50-50 chance of him winning.

In comparison, the probability that Franken would have won 46 votes if his true audit win rate were 51.1% is 8.4%, not that much higher. Of course, there would also be a 7.5% chance of seeing 46/90 votes if Franken's audit win rate were 48.6%.

Using the methodology in the above examples, I computed the probability distribution of the true audit win rate, given you observed 46/90. I then computed the weighted chance that Franken wins as a function of the true audit win rate probability distribution. The result: franken has about a 30% chance of winning.

In the audited precincts, Coleman beat Franken 51....

2008-11-15T18:56:00.000-05:00

In the audited precincts, Coleman beat Franken 51.4% to 48.6% (disregarding other votes). If you weight teach precinct by the total number of reclassified votes, Franken bests Coleman 51.7% to 48.3% (which mirrors the proportion of reclassified vote that went for Franken), a difference of about 3%-points towards Franken.

Given a 50-50 split in all precincts, if Franken wins 53% of the reclassified votes in the full statewide recount, he is going to fall short by about 80 votes.

Chris said:I know this is grammar-Nazi stuff...(Th...

2008-11-15T17:47:00.000-05:00

Chris said:

I know this is grammar-Nazi stuff...

(This is a minor aggravation; thanks for everything all season!)

The irony, of course, is that Chris (likely;) felt irritation, not aggravation.

meant 1 rather than 11.

2008-11-15T16:21:00.000-05:00

meant 1 rather than 11.

just lookin, I rechecked my numbers and looks like...

2008-11-15T16:20:00.000-05:00

just lookin, I rechecked my numbers and looks like I dropped a digit on that large St. Louis County precinct (added a 1 to Coleman rather than a 10).

My final numbers come to Coleman (+27) (-14) and Franken (+32) (-16).

I would note that under the review rules, each county reviews at least 2 precincts (approximately 10% of the precincts in the small counties) and the largest counties review 3% of the precincts so there are a lot of small precincts in the review. The larger variations in the Duluth area can be atrributed in part to the larger size of the precints. When you are talking an error rate of less than 1% of the vote in all precincts, tiny differences appear larger.

In addition, statistics from multiple elections show a higher misread rate in lean Democratic precincts. It should be noted that misread does not mean that the ballot is marked incorrectly under state law just that it is not marked the way that the machine manufacturer desires.

especially if you knew anything about how the fili...

2008-11-15T15:32:00.000-05:00

especially if you knew anything about how the filibuster works before the election (if you didn't know anything about that, then you're an ill-informed bonehead).

Look up Coleman's history on R filibusters and get back to me.

Oh, you were just repeating false dogmatic propaganda? My mistake, carry on.

And no, I didn't 'buy into' the whole 'he's from hollywood' argument. I was opposed to his running from the minute he announced his candidacy. I caucused against him in the primary; that obviously didn't work. I don't see why it 'disgusts' you that people are able to evaluate evidence and use rational thought to come to different conclusions than you; maybe, for example, I see a movement towards hate-based, divisive politics in the American political institution that, long term, will be much more dangerous to America than 6 more years of Coleman, and so I actively tried to stop it. Hence, voting for both Coleman and Franken was out of the question.

As for the rest, we'll have to agree to disagree. I sleep soundly at night, though; I hope you can do the same. 'Only' having a 58-seat majority is, after all, something to be ecstatic about, especially with Republicans like the two from Maine (and others, INCLUDING Coleman when it comes to filibusters) who will be likely to break party lines.

That's your opinion, you're entitled to it. I'm no...

2008-11-15T14:55:00.000-05:00

That's your opinion, you're entitled to it. I'm not looking for a free pass, from you or anyone else--and think one of the lovely things about this country is that who YOU think I should vote for doesn't matter.

I do know how filibusters work, actually. I don't think Franken is a Hollywood type, actually. I studied this race closely, the candidates and their policies closely, and appear to just have a different opinion than you on how ready and capable Franken is. I don't think that makes me any less intelligent or less able to contribute to a meaningful discussion.

I do think it's too bad you are disgusted by people making independent, informed choices about who is best positioned to represent their state.

Sorry, but I'm not willing to give those who didn'...

2008-11-15T13:03:00.000-05:00

Sorry, but I'm not willing to give those who didn't vote for Franken but did vote for Obama a free pass. You folks must seriously enjoy the thought of shooting yourself in the foot to done something as BONEHEADED as that, especially if you knew anything about how the filibuster works before the election (if you didn't know anything about that, then you're an ill-informed bonehead).

Saying Franken is in the same boat as Rush and Moore is, frankly, one of the most laughable things I've heard this week. Basically, I think what it comes down to is you folks bought into the whole "he's from Hollywood, therefore he is bad" argument that was getting tossed around so much.

I'm sorry; I'm just really disgusted at this point.

Jack-be-nimble,You're wrong on both counts. By Mi...

2008-11-15T12:47:00.000-05:00

Jack-be-nimble,
You're wrong on both counts. By Minnesota law, any ballot marked in such a way that the "clear intention of the voter" is discernible is a valid ballot and must be counted for that candidate in the hand recount, even if it's marked in such a way that the optical scanner doesn't pick it up. So as a matter of law, there certainly IS such a thing as an "undervote." Your opinion to the contrary is just that, opinion--not law. That and $3 will get you a coffee at Starbucks.

As for property taxes: renters certainly do pay property taxes, and usually at a higher rate than homeowners. In most states rental property is classified as "commercial" and is taxed at a higher rate than "residential" single-family homes. Landlords pass property taxes (and all other expenses) through to tenants in the form of rent.

Good job on Hardball, O Supreme Geek!

2008-11-15T11:56:00.000-05:00

Good job on Hardball, O Supreme Geek!

One followup on the audit. Barkley gained at a hi...

2008-11-15T08:51:00.000-05:00

One followup on the audit. Barkley gained at a higher rate than his raw vote totals. He picked up 17 votes while losing 5, a net of 12, compared to 16 for Franken and 14 for Coleman.

A lot of this was driven by one precint - St. Louis county #35. Barkley picked up 8, Coleman 11 and Franken 9 even though Franken easily won the precinct in the original vote (471-299-128). This precinct had a reclassified rate about 30 times greater than the average, accounting for 25% of the total reclassified vote.

In one other precinct, St Louis #500, Franken picked up 8, Coleman 3 and Barkley 0. Franken won the original vote 214-61-34. This too was a reclassified rate of about 30 times more than the average.

All other precincts had a vote or two here and there which added up to Coleman net 0 (14 added, 14 lost), Franken net -1 (15 added, 16 lost), Barkely net +4 (9 added, 5 lost).

tmess2,It looks like all the precincts have report...

2008-11-15T08:15:00.000-05:00

tmess2,

It looks like all the precincts have reported in the audit.

By my count, I have Franken only picking up a net 2 votes. Franken gained 32 and lost 16. Coleman gained 28 and lost 14.

Not sure why those figures are so far off from yours which show a much smaller number of votes gained for Coleman.

These data do not bode well for Franken. Of the votes that were reclassified, he picked up 51.1% of them. But he is going to need about 55% of them if the number of reclassified votes statewide continue at the same pace.

To polyticks et al. --I believe Chris's quibble wi...

2008-11-15T04:34:00.000-05:00

To polyticks et al. --
I believe Chris's quibble with the grammar was over the use of "liable to" instead of "likely to." The literal meaning of "liable" is "legally obligated." It is often used to mean "likely to," but generally in a negative sense. Thus I'd agree with Chris that "likely to" is better in this case.

Jack-Be-Nimble-Reasonable, because, renters don't ...

2008-11-15T02:24:00.000-05:00

Jack-Be-Nimble-
Reasonable, because, renters don't pay property tax... Oh, wait. Yes we do. Maybe not directly, but my rent always seems to go up when property taxes do.

Aaaah, this is so cool. Herron is my stats prof. D...

2008-11-15T01:33:00.000-05:00

Aaaah, this is so cool. Herron is my stats prof. Dartmouth Students for Franken...

@ Jim...I do realize it, but appreciate the lectur...

2008-11-15T00:51:00.000-05:00

@ Jim...

I do realize it, but appreciate the lecture and tinge of condescension nonetheless. I also realize that Bush was able to get Alito and Roberts through the Senate quite easily with at most the same number of Senators as the Democrats will have, and that the odds of Republicans filibustering every candidate for years so that no one is ever appointed is slim to none...so therefore you'll excuse me if I'm not all that concerned with the Senate's role in SCOTUS appointments as it currently stands.

In the future, of course it's something to consider. But for me, right now, I'm happy with how I voted--and that's what matters to me.

The correct answer is still "Ballot A".fibly - the...

2008-11-15T00:34:00.000-05:00

The correct answer is still "Ballot A".

fibly - the opposite of truthy

You guys are idiots...There are no such thing as u...

2008-11-15T00:08:00.000-05:00

You guys are idiots...

There are no such thing as undervotes.....

Under votes are no votes at all..

If you can't vote properly, you don't deserve to vote at all.....

Btw only property holders should be able to vote for property taxes...

To all self-proclaimed grammar Nazis (and their de...

2008-11-14T23:51:00.000-05:00

To all self-proclaimed grammar Nazis (and their detractors) here: as a university linguistics professor, I feel obliged to come to Nate's defense -- there is absolutely nothing wrong with his original formulation. CA Hawkeye's quote about collective plurals is accurate enough, and one of the main features of "likely" (and other so-called "raising" predicates) is that it places no restrictions whatsoever on its subject. Ergo "There is likely to have been much ado about nothing", "It is likely to rain", "The shit is likely to hit the fan," etc. Might I add that there are far more important (and legitimate) things to protest and worry about as 2008 draws to a close. And don't believe everything they told you in school.

Are you only covering the people who think Franken...

2008-11-14T22:50:00.000-05:00

Are you only covering the people who think Franken will win this or is it really this clear? I haven't followed many elections due to my age, but I have trouble seeing somebody leading with a minimal amount of votes to be counted as an apparent underdog.

maybe Nate will have time to check his answers for...

2008-11-14T19:43:00.000-05:00

maybe Nate will have time to check his answers for the book, but his TV appearances are quite innaccurate for the most part. I am constantly seeing factual errors in his answers.

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Dartmouth Study: Minnesota Undervotes Should Favor...

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外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇 外遇 外遇 外遇外遇 外遇 外遇 外遇 外遇 外遇 ...

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Jeff,An excellent point. Though I don't think I'm...

Kos is reporting that Franken picked up a net of 2...

In the audited precincts, Coleman beat Franken 51....

Chris said:I know this is grammar-Nazi stuff...(Th...

meant 1 rather than 11.

just lookin, I rechecked my numbers and looks like...

especially if you knew anything about how the fili...

That's your opinion, you're entitled to it. I'm no...

Sorry, but I'm not willing to give those who didn'...

Jack-be-nimble,You're wrong on both counts. By Mi...

Good job on Hardball, O Supreme Geek!

One followup on the audit. Barkley gained at a hi...

tmess2,It looks like all the precincts have report...

To polyticks et al. --I believe Chris's quibble wi...

Jack-Be-Nimble-Reasonable, because, renters don't ...

Aaaah, this is so cool. Herron is my stats prof. D...

@ Jim...I do realize it, but appreciate the lectur...

The correct answer is still "Ballot A".fibly - the...

You guys are idiots...There are no such thing as u...

To all self-proclaimed grammar Nazis (and their de...

Are you only covering the people who think Franken...

maybe Nate will have time to check his answers for...

外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇 ...