Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Elections Without Section 5?

Quick and dirty solution to gerrymandering: requir...

2009-06-24T09:42:42.923-04:00

Quick and dirty solution to gerrymandering: require that state legislatures need a 4/5 vote, and the assent of the Governor and State Supreme Court to adopt any redisticting plan.

It seems that if this significantly boosted the al...

2009-06-24T01:59:41.778-04:00

It seems that if this significantly boosted the already sky-high re-election rates of congress members we'd start to see some really outrageous consequences.

Like "a Bachmann in every state" outrageous.

Off topic to the specifics of this thread, but top...

2009-06-23T21:01:19.106-04:00

Off topic to the specifics of this thread, but topical anyway:

In yesterday's Washington Post on-line edition, the original article on the SCOTUS decision was titled "High court rules narrowly in voting rights case" Some of the commentators were extremely derisive of the headline, pointing out that 'an 8-1 vote is NOT narrow'.

Technically, the headline was exact, but the perception of the wording, especially for those who were after partisan gains (especially those who think of the 'Post' as 'Pravda on the Potomac'), was drastically twisted.

Similar to some of the comments and commentators here at 538.com, IMO.

Mike in Maryland

My Blogger ID is http://www.blogger.com/profile/02848893412251095965

morom: When your Ma ain't very bright.

2009-06-23T19:17:06.797-04:00

morom: When your Ma ain't very bright.

Any serious proposal to revamp the way we vote in ...

2009-06-23T19:16:19.835-04:00

Any serious proposal to revamp the way we vote in this country would be met by a howling mob. If Americans are consistent about anything, it’s their unwillingness to change. Look how hard it has been to convert this country to the metric system. I think there are only two holdouts left across the world, the US being one of them, the other perhaps Angola. (Another glaring example of our blockheadedness is the fact that there is still strong opposition to any “government-option” health insurance among the very people most screwed by the current system.) And you guys are talking about instituting a voting system that any minimally-educated adult would never understand?

All I can do is quote Stanley Kowalski—“Well I say ha-ha to you, ha-ha! What do you think of that?”

One thing many people don't recognize (or give eno...

2009-06-23T18:36:43.075-04:00

One thing many people don't recognize (or give enough weight to) is the following. The GOP is just as dependent of the "packing" of African Americans into districts as southern Black Pols are. If the black districts are "unpacked" the GOP would lose between 12-18 districts in the south. So I don't expect Alito and Roberts both of whom wrote legal briefs for Reagan on redistricting to overturn this rule. They realize it would hurt conservative Republicans, and help Blue Dog democrats.

As Latino citizenship rates and voting rates rise in the SouthWest (I'm including Texas) expect a similar dilemma to arise there, especially if the GOP continues their current anti-immigrant/ La Raza = KKK, tactics. Latinos will become a 75% Dem Demographic, combined with less conservative (compared to Southerners) whites and you get a similar dynamic. So count me as a cynical skeptic on the SC overturning this. They do recognize politics, and they won't under cut conservative Republican. Lots of platitudes on this issue but unlike lets say college Affirmative Action they see this as benefiting conservative whites so they won't overturn it.

Adam, if Congressman X has been diligent, under P...

2009-06-23T18:05:32.067-04:00

Adam,

if Congressman X has been diligent, under Proportional Representation he would be reelected.

Say there are 5 Representatives in a multi-member district, and one could vote for a person as well as a party, it's likely that one side would win 3 seats and the other 2, falling to the best vote-getters of each party. (4-1 districts are possible, or 3-1-1 or 2-2-1 with a strong independent, but 5-0 won't happen)

Dale, I appreciate that answer. I just think the...

2009-06-23T17:38:31.394-04:00

Dale,

I appreciate that answer. I just think there is no perfect system. Eventually, demographics shift unpredictably and representatives will have to pay close attention to their constituencies to stay afloat. I am sure that Austin is trending leftward and that the congressmen are going to have to toe the line in order to not be snuffed out.

Similarly, Jack Murtha's district in Pennsylvania has moved to the right in recent years and sooner or later his high profile in the party is going to cost him once political winds shift.

I don't know that there will ever be a perfect system. Arbitrary lines are going to split communities.

But isn't there a benefit to gerrymandering? Isn't it better for a congressman to have some insolation against being thrown out because of macro national factors that have nothing to do with him? If the national winds blow against a particular party but congressman X has been diligent and in tune to the needs of his district and worked his way up to a good committee chairmanship, why should he suffer?

I think it's just one of those consequences of living in a representative republic instead of a democracy.

(System seems to have eaten my previous comment; a...

2009-06-23T17:18:55.062-04:00

(System seems to have eaten my previous comment; apologies if something sounding almost-but-not-entirely like this pops up again later.)

@Adam

Pennsylvania was lucky. Other states, not so much. Since the boundaries are only redrawn once every 10 years, it usually takes 10 years to fix any problems; and even if it takes four, four years is still a long time!

You asked what's wrong with Austin having four representatives. The problem is, that isn't what happens. The boundaries were drawn very precisely, so that the heavily-Democratic portions of Austin were evenly divided, and grouped together with a larger portion of, and even more-heavily leaning, Republican area of the state. Those areas completely dominate the election; Austin didn't go from 1 representative to 4, it went from 1 to ZERO.

And sure, the Democrats would do the same. And that's just as bad. I think we could all agree that such a falsely-constructed bias in favor of either party is a blow against democracy.

@R-Boy And gerrymandering politicians DON'T split...

2009-06-23T17:11:03.441-04:00

@R-Boy

And gerrymandering politicians DON'T split communities of interest? Puh-lease.

And there isn't much room for gerrymandering of census blocks. First, there are over 8 million of them. About a quarter of them have 0 population, and the very populous ones are just a single city block. In either extreme, there isn't any wiggle-room left to creatively cut them up any smaller, and if you cluster them together algorithmically, there isn't any creativity allowed in how you put them together. So it doesn't move the potential for gerrymandering "down a level", it removes it completely.

Note that if one does any sort of geographic based...

2009-06-23T16:44:22.789-04:00

Note that if one does any sort of geographic based districting, you're going to subject the process to how Census designates its Census blocks, thus moving the point of contention to anther part of the bureaucracy.

The problem of such a rule based is that it ignores communities and has a strong likelihood of splitting a town or something like that.

Some combo, maybe

David, Why would it be better for a city of 750k ...

2009-06-23T16:37:04.977-04:00

David,

Why would it be better for a city of 750k to have one representative instead of having four representatives fighting for the interests of the city of Austin?

I don't see anything so terribly wrong with gerrym...

2009-06-23T16:30:08.190-04:00

I don't see anything so terribly wrong with gerrymandering. Rick Santorum got together with Republican leaders in Pennsylvania in 2002 and tried to create a map with a 13-6 GOP majority in the state. On Election Night it wound up being 12-7 in favor of the GOP.

Four short years later the GOP congressional delegation was down to 8 members and the Democrats gained ground in the Philly burbs as the area lurched rapidly to the left.

So what? Both parties do it. Eventually popular sentiment will swing against the party in power and the opposition will gain ground. It's always been that way. One party will get greedy and try to redistrict out as much of the opposition as possible. In doing so they put their own members at risk as soon as t he pendulum shifts. Seems just fine with me.

In Texas, the city of Austin, a city of over 750,0...

2009-06-23T16:27:14.398-04:00

In Texas, the city of Austin, a city of over 750,000 people, was left without a single representative. Austin has been divided into four separate Congressional districts. One district stretches from the Eastern side of Austin down over 200 miles to the border. Another stretches from Northwestern Austin 150 miles to the outer reaches of Houston.

I can't see how this is in line with the various one-man-one vote rulings of the previous Supreme Courts.

I have a great solution to all this redistricting ...

2009-06-23T16:18:05.766-04:00

I have a great solution to all this redistricting nonsense. WE can create a true, modern democracy instead of this antiquated rubbish we currently us with this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proportional_representation

@Dale Thanks for the links. I knew that there are...

2009-06-23T16:13:52.891-04:00

@Dale
Thanks for the links. I knew that there are theoretical solutions but hadn't read them before- they're interesting.

what I really want to know is whether there are solutions to the catch-22 about how those responsible to change this are those that benefit from its current structure.

Dale: Interesting links. Not a big fan of gerrym...

2009-06-23T15:41:15.921-04:00

Dale: Interesting links. Not a big fan of gerrymandering, either. Seems to undermine the whole idea of democracy to me.

"Are there any possible solutions?" Sure. Algori...

2009-06-23T15:28:09.694-04:00

"Are there any possible solutions?"

Sure. Algorithmically-defined districts; totally immune to partisan considerations. There are several good ones to choose from:

Maximally-compact districts:
http://www.stealingourvotes.com/pages/3/index.htm

Lowest-average-distance:
http://bolson.org/dist/

Shortest-splitline:
http://rangevoting.org/GerryExec.html

Or, since districting tends to under-represent minorities and enhance partisanship, proportional representation: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proportional_representation

@mclever I totally agree with you about the need f...

2009-06-23T15:12:36.660-04:00

@mclever
I totally agree with you about the need for bipartisanship on this issue. I think that there's a vicious cycle going on here with those in power re-drawing the lines, to then get people elected solely due to the re-drawn lines. So basically those with the power to change this are those that this benefits the most. Are there any possible solutions?

w.v. diserf: we diserf better

I agree with Ed that the Supreme Court decision is...

2009-06-23T14:24:42.087-04:00

I agree with Ed that the Supreme Court decision is troubling.

Re-districting is almost always a problem, with so much power invested in those who make the decisions about where to draw the lines.

Aside from the survival or demise of "Section 5", I think there needs to be more work on a nonpartisan solution for drawing district lines. Requiring "regularity" of shape/size is just one starting point.

Another typo: It's "Bartlett" not "Barlett."

2009-06-23T14:05:58.446-04:00

Another typo: It's "Bartlett" not "Barlett."

Thanks, duly corrected. And gee, I was afraid the ...

2009-06-23T13:41:23.179-04:00

Thanks, duly corrected. And gee, I was afraid the first comment would contest my interpretation of Bartlett v. Strickland!

Just a quick typo note - to the "victor" not "vict...

2009-06-23T13:26:18.577-04:00

Just a quick typo note - to the "victor" not "victory" go the spoils