Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: New York Times Doesn’t Think North Carolina Is a T...

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2009-01-18T05:48:00.000-05:00

The NYT is familiar with the "Bradley effect."

2008-10-07T11:30:00.000-04:00

The NYT is familiar with the "Bradley effect."

Monday, October 6, 2008Obama expands NC lead Barac...

2008-10-06T20:28:00.000-04:00

Monday, October 6, 2008
Obama expands NC lead

Barack Obama 50
John McCain 44
Bob Barr 2

Monday, October 6, 2008
Hagan continues to hold large lead
Kay Hagan 49
Elizabeth Dole 40
Christopher Cole 5

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/

Election Day Registration

Election Day Registration, also known as "same-day voter registration," permits eligible citizens to register and vote on Election Day. Election Day Registration significantly increases the opportunity for all citizens to cast a vote and participate in democracy.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Election_Day_Registration

North Carolina

Deadline for registering to vote is Friday, October 10, 2008.

The Motherlode of All Voter Registration Information That You Need

It is bookmark time and forwarding the LINK time. All 50 States of the Union, Voter Registration Information Here.

http://thisweekwithbarackobama.blogspot.com/2008/09/all-information-you-need-to-register-to.html

My girlfriend and I moved to NC about six months a...

2008-10-06T11:57:00.000-04:00

My girlfriend and I moved to NC about six months ago from Boston. After bugging her consistently for a few months, I finally got her to register last week! We live in a small, rural community just outside The Triangle and as far as voter excitement is concerned, there are 3 to 1 more signs and stickers for Obama. And they are EVERYWHERE. Even if the majority of the rural areas vote heavily for McCain, there just might be enough rabid support from the cities and colleges to turn NC blue.

North Carolina is in many ways better demographica...

2008-10-06T05:30:00.000-04:00

North Carolina is in many ways better demographically. Big african american population, major college campuses all over the state (Wake Forest, UNC, Duke, North Carolina State, and more) Obama campaign's ground game is superior, and knows how to GOTV. We are smashing records 600,000+ new registered democrats. Obama is gonna win North Carolina. Believe It!

The NYT is just 5 days behind the curve and they h...

2008-10-06T03:18:00.000-04:00

The NYT is just 5 days behind the curve and they have been slow all year long with the polls. There is a slight Pro-McCain bias to defining the toss-ups that Nate points to. I bet NC, IN and MO are toss-ups by the middle of next week, that is, if the pattern holds.

Also, like some have said... the news media has a ...

2008-10-05T21:29:00.000-04:00

Also, like some have said... the news media has a vested interest in keeping this a horse race as long as possible - there's a reason so many people tuned in to watch the recent VP debates.

But honestly, I don't think it's entirely dishonest sensationalism. In all fairness, by the time Obama takes NC, MO, or IN - he's already well over 270 EV. They're electorally unimportant states because deciding votes would already have been placed prior to their being won.

I'm definitely willing to give the media the benef...

2008-10-05T21:26:00.000-04:00

I'm definitely willing to give the media the benefit of the doubt on this one for two reasons. First is that fundamentally, Obama isn't depending on these states to win the election - the odds of North Carolina flipping without Virginia doing so as well are unlikely, and this stands true to Missouri and Indiana as well. Obama wins or loses this election based on states like Virginia, Colorado, and the other so-called "battleground states". States like North Carolina which are competitive at levels that easily would have been called "battleground" in the 2004 election are much moreso style-points for Obama, and their investment would seem to be much more a long-term investment with the hope of changing the electoral map for some time to come rather than trying to eek out a narrow margin on the electoral map this year (which these states aren't likely to do).

North Carolina and Indiana are not toss-ups, I wou...

2008-10-05T19:03:00.000-04:00

North Carolina and Indiana are not toss-ups, I would agree. If Obama doesnt win Colorado, I think he loses the election.

Obama just made his 3rd appearance in NC in as man...

2008-10-05T19:00:00.000-04:00

Obama just made his 3rd appearance in NC in as many weeks. He seems to think the Tarheel state is in play.

AnnS::
...even the most accurate poll has an error margin of 4+% so in close polls, there goes your precious 1-2 points or more. Gotta have at least a swing of 5 points for the poll to be 'probably' accurate....

Four years ago I remember trying to convince myself that if Kerry was trailing but it was within the margin of error, then maybe he was actually tied. Even though he was trailing in every poll for weeks. But it was within the margin of error! So maybe every poll was wrong in the exact same way, every day! It could happen!

Well that's possible but not likely, and all my wishful thinking couldn't make it so.

The plan to steal the next election:http://markcri...

2008-10-05T18:51:00.000-04:00

The plan to steal the next election:

http://markcrispinmiller.blogspot.com/2008/09/spoonamore-reveals-plan-to-steal-next.html

Um, Real Joe, speaking as a Canadian, I hope you w...

2008-10-05T18:47:00.000-04:00

Um, Real Joe, speaking as a Canadian, I hope you were joking and not serious hehe. And actually its looking like US is going for Obama, while Canada may get a majority Tory(that is right wing) gov't, so there may be an influx of Canadian liberals coming into the US hehe. The Democrats got nothing on the left wing parties of Canada hehe.

AnnS says... Nothing. Very little. No reply. P...

2008-10-05T17:07:00.000-04:00

AnnS says... Nothing. Very little. No reply.

People who argue from experience are always retards. Cicero identifies it as a simple logical mistake. Anyone who has "experience" and who is not dumb realizes that it makes no sense to argue based on experience of something that no longer matters. Here's AnnS's argument: "Hey, I did this, and you didn't, so shut up." Yeah? So based on that, why don't we just predict the 2008 election based on the 2004 one? Let's analyze from the past, now shall we?

The reason the Republicans are losing is that they're running a circa 2004 campaign. I could explain this further, but you all know what I mean.

AnnS, I worked on the Ron Klein v. E. Clay Shaw campaign in south Florida. There was a three million dollar budget for each side. You know how we beat the thirteen-term incumbent Republican with our freshman Senator?

...We tied E. Clay Shaw to George W. Bush.

That's exactly how we'll beat McCain.

Keep paying attention; you might learn something.

Has it occurred to anyone else that the news media...

2008-10-05T17:04:00.000-04:00

Has it occurred to anyone else that the news media, and even some bloggers, has a vested interest in this campaign being a horse race as long as possible?

In addition to this site, I check many of the regular media sites--NY Times, CNN, Washington Times, Yahoo--and I find them much more in step with each other than they are with you. They want traffic to their websites, traffic that might dry up if the election were "called" this early.

Bottom line: the media, including the NY Times, wants the race as long as they can get it. They'll switch the battleground states around to suit themselves or do whatever else they can to fuel the idea that it's still a race.

Personally, I think this latest break for Obama will prove to be decisive. It IS the economy.

12:00am ET (AK-3) McCain-R. needs 267ev before 12:...

2008-10-05T16:43:00.000-04:00

12:00am ET (AK-3) McCain-R. needs 267ev before 12:00am ET.
11:00pm ET (CA-55),(HI-4),(OR-7),(WA-11) Obama-D needs 193ev before 11:00pm ET . (ID-4),(ND-3) McCain-R needs (260ev) before 11:00pm ET.
10:00pm ET. (IA-7),Obama-D needs 186ev before 10:00pm. (MT-3),(UT-5) McCain-R needs (252ev) before 10:00pm ET.
9:00pm ET (MI-17),(MN-10),(NM-5),(NY-31),(RI-4),(WI-10)- Obama-D needs 109ev before 9:00pm ET.
(AZ-10),(KS-6),(LA-9),(NE-5),(SD-3),(TX-34),(WY-3)-McCain needs 182ev before 9:00pm ET.
8:30pm ET (AR-6)- McCain-R needs 176ev before 8:30pm ET.
8:00pm ET (CT-7)(DE-3)(DC-3)(IL-21),(ME-4)(MD-10)(MA-12),(NJ-15),(PA-21) Obama-D needs 13evs before 8:00pmET. (AL-9),(MS-6),(OK-7),(TN-11). McCain needs 143ev before 8:00pm ET.
7:30pm ET. (WV-5). McCain needs 138ev before 7:30pm ET.
7:00pm ET (VT-3)- Obama-D needs 10ev after 7:00pm ET. (GA-15)(KY-8),(SC-8)- McCain needs 107ev after 7:00pm ET.

John McCain needs to win.
IN-11
VA-13
NC-15
OH-20
FL-27
MO-11
NH-4
CO-9

Wow, AnnS, yawn. I worked for the most expensive ...

2008-10-05T16:42:00.001-04:00

Wow, AnnS, yawn. I worked for the most expensive Senate race in 2006, and yet you don't see me sharing my infinite wisdom as to How Elections Work with the hoi polloi.

People who work on campaigns are the same people who dropped out of Business Admin. classes in college, 'cause those classes were too darn tough! As your lady Palin would say.

I quit after one campaign, because it was bullshit.

Also: isn't this an awfully "elitist" argument, coming from a conservative such as yourself? AnnS says: "Listen to me; I kissed enough ass to work on X campaign." I thought only dumb people knew shit, and that smart people were stupid latte drinkers. ...According to you guys, right?

It MEANS, Ben S that only a fool or a deluded part...

2008-10-05T16:42:00.000-04:00

It MEANS, Ben S that only a fool or a deluded partisan believes polls 100%. Anyone who actualluy works with political compaignas takes them with a vary large dose of salt.

And ignoring the documented skewed poll results about Obama during the primaries is just flat incompetent. Pretty much every pollster was getting pre-election results for Obama that did not match up to the actual results for Obama - more than than the normal variation. The pollsters attributed that to the reluctance of voters to say they did not want to vote for him and be accused of racism. (And all one had to do was read the various political blogs to see the racism charges flying thick in the air from Obama supporters.) Ignoring reality does not make reality go away, it just makes one delusional.

In addition: the margin of error for a given poll ...

2008-10-05T16:38:00.000-04:00

In addition: the margin of error for a given poll is certainly not the same as one gets when averaging them together and extrapolating.

For someone with such supposed knowledge of pollin...

2008-10-05T16:29:00.000-04:00

For someone with such supposed knowledge of polling, AnnS seems confused about what a margin of error is. There is nothing magic about that number; the confidence level it is set at is purely arbitrary. Saying that a lead within the margin of error is actually a tie is ignorant. She also declares a prominent Bradley Effect without presenting any evidence and heartily whines about how mean people are. Good work on all fronts.

Hey folks... I was born / raised in rural Indiana,...

2008-10-05T16:07:00.000-04:00

Hey folks... I was born / raised in rural Indiana, but now live in Denver, Colorado. I maintain close ties with numerous relatives in the northern and north-central areas of Indiana with strong Republican roots.... Lafayette up to Valparaiso over to South Bend and Fort Wayne and down to Kokomo. I recently returned from a 2-week visit there, and during that time I visited and spoke with several relatives. If what they were saying along with having witnessed unheralded numbers of Obama-Biden yard signs and bumper stickers in many communities then Indiana is unquestionably in play. Of the 25 years of my adult life there, I've never see anything close to what it is this year. It's truly encouraging for Obama-Biden. Their economy has reduced many folks to their knees; industry has been substantially decimated; it's huge for ethanol production (which McCain openly opposes); foreclosures, the national debt, foreign relations and the war are taking a heavy toll; and Palin has rapidly evolved into a controversial, polarizing figure. This year, Republicans are notably weaker in the rural areas so with a strong voter turnout in the Democratic strongholds (Indy and near Chicago) there's a growing feeling that Indiana will turn blue. It would be a first since LB Johnson did it in 1964. For nearly a month now, I've said that if the Dems manage to flip just 2 of 4 states (Florida, Indiana, Missouri or North Carolina) then it's unarguably checkmate for Obama-Biden!

Wow. Ann S. thanks for sharing your smartness and ...

2008-10-05T16:02:00.000-04:00

Wow. Ann S. thanks for sharing your smartness and everything with us. How do we deserve to even be on the same blog as you? With your unmatched brilliance it is astonishing that you would give us poor peons FREE advice. Please come here every day to educate us more.
Forever in your debt.

I read all this and am vastly amused at all the as...

2008-10-05T15:55:00.000-04:00

I read all this and am vastly amused at all the assumptions made.

First, the lot of you make your OWN assumptions such as "well if the polls nationally show xyz, then the Poll for (whatever state) should really be showing blah blah blah.

Second, it appears that few if any of you read the section here on 538 about evaluating the pollsters. Gallup is NOT in the same class as SurveyUSA in accuracy of results. Quit cherry-picking the data that supports your beliefs and ignoring the rest.

Further, you all blithely ignore the fact that even the most accurate poll has an error margin of 4+% so in close polls, there goes your precious 1-2 points or more. Gotta have at least a swing of 5 points for the poll to be 'probably' accurate - and then of course, you give it only as much credit as it deserves based upon the historical accuracy of the one doing the poll.

Third your own prejudices keep you all from admitting that a lot of your 'facts' are merely Hope In Disguise. For example, there seems to be an enormous desire on this board to believe that NC is going Blue. Talk about counting your chickens.

(1) It hasn't voted for a Dem in years
(2) That IS still the south and the home of Jesse Helms
(3) It has a strong orientation to the military

Each state has to be examined in terms of the prior voting behaviors, socio-economic groups and culture. Quit trying to reduce everything to "but but telephone polls show ....and the computer model says...." (That kind of stupidity is what created the current economic disaster.

Then there is the fact that after the primaries, the polling companies admitted that there is an inherent and unpredicatable distortion about support for Obama. They found that more people said they would support him than actually did. The reason for this is quite simple. Ever since he announced he was running, his devoted followers have screamed "Racist, racist, racist" at anyone who said they did not support their deity. Easier to just lie when ask about voting preferences than have to listen to that kind of abuse.

Here are my calls:

PA - D (but narrowly)
OH - R
NC - R
CO & NM - D
VA & NV can jump either way and if they do go D it will be by less than 1-2%. VA will jump before NV does.

Forget IN & Missouri. They will flirt with the Ds to send a message but go R.

BTW, I use to RUN Congressional campaigns (and did it in OH and PA)and, among other things, did the voting pattern predictions. I learned to do it without the computers and models and come up with the analysis based upon the demographics and attitudes of the area.