Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: On Pennsylvania Being "In Play"

酒店經紀人, 菲梵酒店經紀, 酒店經紀, 禮服酒店上班, 酒店小姐兼職, 便服酒店經紀, ...

2009-10-07T07:22:50.450-04:00

酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店經紀,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店工作,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
菲
梵,

酒店經紀人, 菲梵酒店經紀, 酒店經紀, 禮服酒店上班, 酒店小姐兼職, 便服酒店經紀, ...

2009-10-03T03:11:11.885-04:00

^^ very nice 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵...

2009-03-12T04:57:00.001-04:00

^^ nice blog!! ^@^徵信, 徵信網, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵...

2009-03-12T04:57:00.000-04:00

情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,...

2009-02-08T23:00:00.000-05:00

情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,...

2009-01-17T03:11:00.000-05:00

"Were the national race to tighten by 5 points or ...

2008-11-03T02:10:00.000-05:00

"Were the national race to tighten by 5 points or so, then Pennsylvania might actually be in play, rather than being "in play"."

That is possible the most ridiculous statement I've read this election season. Nate, you're a pundit, not a politician.

Worried about the Pennsylvania GOTV? Don't be. If ...

2008-11-02T20:42:00.000-05:00

Worried about the Pennsylvania GOTV? Don't be. If Philadelphia gets its turnout for Obama then PA is in the bag. I've worked every election starting with Carter '76 and have never seen so much ground coverage. My neighborhood has TWO field offices. We are all volunteers, many from other states in for the weekend, the week, the month, or more. But McCain, or a surrogate, is paying teenagers $70 a day to distribute leaflets here about abortion and Israel, distorting Obama's record on both. $70 a day for kids. (We asked them, that's how we know.)

Makes you think they can't get enough volunteers to work for them.

So don't look at money spent, look at volunteers mobilized.

Nate, love you on the teevee and appreciate your w...

2008-11-02T15:13:00.000-05:00

Nate, love you on the teevee and appreciate your work on this site. We live in northeastern PA. Yesterday we showed up to canvass in Stroudsburg but the campaign office had so many volunteers they were all out of canvassing packets, so we did the phone bank. There were lots of folks from all over volunteering to canvass and to make calls, and when we went back again today to the local Obama HQ, there were guys with lawn signs standing at the corners of 7th Street and Main and drivers honking and shouting support as they passed.

My husband's optimistic guess is that there might be as high as a 3% hidden edge in Obama's ground game. This regretably turned out to be true in the '04 Bush effort when Kerry received more votes than any other Dem candidate in history, but Bush received even more.

Yes we can!

PA has more than 78 field offices. There are also...

2008-11-02T11:22:00.000-05:00

PA has more than 78 field offices. There are also smaller satellite offices open for weekend canvassing and for all of GOTV.

I've been working out of a satellite office for the last 3 weekends.

I understand Nate's rationale. But I don't think i...

2008-11-02T10:54:00.000-05:00

I understand Nate's rationale. But I don't think it's wise to give "free fodder" to The McCain Camp. Imagine the headline: "Premier Liberal Polling Site Admits Pennsylvania "In Play."

The cost/benefit ratio is negative.

I understand Nate's rationale. But I don't think i...

2008-11-02T10:50:00.000-05:00

I understand Nate's rationale. But I don't think it merits giving "free fodder" to The McCain Camp. Imagine the headline: "Premier Liberal Polling Site Admits Pennsylvania "In Play."

Zogby, Rasmussen and, certainly Mason-Dixon polls...

2008-11-02T10:20:00.000-05:00

Zogby, Rasmussen and, certainly Mason-Dixon polls have become somewhat suspect. The latter has always been a "lean" Republican organization. Zogby, generally, seems behind the trend (faulty methodology?). Rasmussen? Well, they have worked a little too closely with False (Fox) News.

@ Dave Barnes - The accepted plural of "scenario" ...

2008-11-02T09:00:00.000-05:00

@ Dave Barnes -

The accepted plural of "scenario" is "scenarios." Look it up. Moreover, the true plural in Italian would be scenarii, with two "i's."

Jeez.

thanks, i was getting a little concerned

2008-11-02T07:33:00.000-05:00

thanks, i was getting a little concerned

McCain has been closing fast in PA. Even if Obama ...

2008-11-02T06:44:00.000-05:00

McCain has been closing fast in PA. Even if Obama wins the election, loosing PA would be a huge hit to the Democratic party. Eitherway, loosing PA will greatly reduce Obama's chances of winning the election.

McCain has been focusing on PA much more than Obama in the last two weeks. Recently the Obama campaign has announced that they will be spending time and money in several new states that have always gone Republican, including Arizona. I think this is a mistake. It spreads the campaign too thin, takes the focus from the important states like PA, and we have zero chance of winning these states.

We can not loose PA just because we want to show off by campaigning in Arizona.

Let's get serious and leave Arizona alone!!!!

Please come back to PA!!!!

VOTE...Don't Gloat!We need to deliver Pa. to Obama...

2008-11-02T01:56:00.000-05:00

VOTE...Don't Gloat!

We need to deliver Pa. to Obama and be part of this history!

-- Vivienne in State College

D. Melanogaster said..."I don't understand what it...

2008-11-02T01:56:00.000-04:00

D. Melanogaster said...
"I don't understand what it means that the projection and trend on the right is going down down down if things are fairly stable??"

Look at the horizontal scale - the dates shown are two weeks apart, so it shows stable polling data for about four weeks with a small drop in Obama's numbers of about 0.5-0.75% in the past week.

I was thinking about On the Road today -- around 3...

2008-11-02T01:55:00.000-04:00

I was thinking about On the Road today -- around 3:00 I was by one of the two Obama offices near the center of Squirrel Hill (the largest residential neighborhood in Pittsburgh, by population).

There were three signs on the door: one saying that the phone bank was full until at least 4:00, that this office and the one around the corner was full for general administrative help, and that they were full for canvassers until the election and that anyone who wanted to volunteer could call one of the three nearest offices with volunteer slots (all of which were a few neighborhoods away -- and I know of at least three closer Obama offices.)

The brand-new McCain office just down the street? Closed. I totally get McCain wanting to make the airwaves competitive and spend his money there. But why even bother paying rent if you're not going to have your office open in a commercial area in a swing state with tons of foot traffic the Saturday afternoon before the election? What's the point?

Here is something in quotes for you Nate: "You're ...

2008-11-02T01:50:00.000-04:00

Here is something in quotes for you Nate: "You're a fuckin' ass"

Be nice to McCain, everybody. He's going to lose, ...

2008-11-02T01:48:00.000-04:00

Be nice to McCain, everybody. He's going to lose, and we'll need his help in the Senate on global warming. He's really not a bad guy. He's just surrounded by bad people right now, and he knows he'll be dead in the water if he pisses off the Republican base.

No.

"But in 2004, Zogby erroneously predicted a Kerry ...

2008-11-02T01:44:00.001-04:00

"But in 2004, Zogby erroneously predicted a Kerry win via OH and FL. "
Or: Zogby correctly predicted a Kerry win in OH and FL, and it was the official tallies which were "erroneous". We'll probably never know.

But I think this race is too big to steal. My prediction, since Oct. 11 and I still stick to it: election eve polls will be around 52-44, but votes will be nearer to 55-40-5, with a surprisingly high percentage of McCain just not showing up at all or voting 3rd party in protest. Therefore, Obama goes double-digit in all blue states (including PA, and the Gore-but-not-Kerry NM, IA and the Kerry-but-not-Gore NH), less well in the purple states (FL, OH, VA, CO, NV) but still sweeps them all.

In the "white" states that have been looking tied or slightly McCain (NC, IN, MO, MT, ND) I also look for Obama sweep, though maybe he loses one or two; but he gets a "pink" or two to make up for it. My Oct. 11 count gave him WV and Omaha for a 387/151 trouncing; take away WV and MT but give him AZ, make it 388.

Am I complacent? Just in case, spent the afternoon door-knocking.
oburedle: how Ben Affleck looked doing Keith Obermann

@MrInsight22:2. On November 1, 2004, the electoral...

2008-11-02T01:44:00.000-04:00

@MrInsight22:

2. On November 1, 2004, the electoral-vote.com map based on the most recent polls showed Kerry winning FL and OH just like the exit polls did on election day.

Yeah, but Kerry's leads in those FL and OH polls were 1% and 2%, respectively; for this year to be analagous to 2004, we'd have to see Pennsylvania and Virginia polling at the same kind of statistical dead heat.

ovests: what the obama campaign will be offering for $30 contributions, if the election doesn't end pretty soon.

Anybody else hear any rumors about a soon to be re...

2008-11-02T01:40:00.001-04:00

Anybody else hear any rumors about a soon to be released Survey USA PA poll? Somebody on here mentioned it and I saw mention of it on another site. Supposed good news for McCain?

Hell,I never was freaking out the Zogby number. 5 ...

2008-11-02T01:40:00.000-04:00

Hell,

I never was freaking out the Zogby number. 5 of the other 6 tracking polls have shown Obama trending upward after Wednesday’s infomercial:

Research 2000 +2%
ABC News/Wash Post +1%
IBD/TIPP +.4%
GW/Battleground Tracking +1%
Hotline/FD +1%
Gallup +3%
Rasmussen Reports even