Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: McCain Improves With Base, Obama Stays Flat

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2009-10-08T05:58:21.763-04:00

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2009-09-15T01:51:43.292-04:00

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2009-02-15T21:56:00.000-05:00

Marlon, you've provided some much-needed balance a...

2008-08-16T19:42:00.000-04:00

Marlon, you've provided some much-needed balance and reassurance, but I still need to get Obama come out swinging, and for the institutional (read: congressional) Democrats and Obama to get the hell on the same page.

I'm not sympathetic to the old refrain from people who won't get on the bus, i.e., "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat." This is bullshit. Pretty soon, if it's not already too late, some Democrats are going to have to decide whether they care about winning some elections.

I, for one, remain to be convinced.

This is why I can't worry about Obama or any of th...

2008-08-16T14:04:00.000-04:00

This is why I can't worry about Obama or any of these polls.

Check the Gallup regional poll below. Its mirrors their previous regional poll, and the previous Research 2000 national poll, which had similar regional results (which resulted into a 13pt national lead for Obama).

Gallup: McCain Continues Strong In the South, But Nowhere Else
by DemFromCT
Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 08:16:06 AM EST
Well, this is interesting. While the Gallup does its periodic undulation (McCain and Obama are now tied at 44%), the site also breaks down particulars.

For example:

Candidate Support by "Red," "Purple," and "Blue" States

Aug 4-10 (last week) Obama McCain
Red states 40 (41) 49 (48)
battleground/purple states 47 (46) 41 (42)
Blue states 54 (49) 35 (39)

and the fascinating

Candidate Support by Region

Aug 4-10 (last week) Obama McCain
East 51 (46) 38 (41)
Midwest 50 (46) 38 (42)
South 40 (42) 50 (48)
West 50 (47) 40 (42)

Here's the Research 2000 topline number, with breakdowns and electoral counts after.

Research 2000 for media clients. 7/25-27. Likely voters. MoE 3% (No trend lines)

McCain (R) 39
Obama (D) 51
Barr (L) 3
Nader (I) 2

DEMOGRAPHICS:

Men 516 (47%)
Women 584 (53%)

Democrats 407 (37%)
Republicans 276 (25%)
Independents 320 (29%)
Other/Refused 97 (9%)

White 792 (72%)
Black 154 (14%)
Latino 143 (13%)
Other/Ref 11 (1%)

18-29 209 (19%)
30-44 352 (32%)
45-59 308 (28%)
60+ 231 (21%)

Northeast 242 (22%)
South 331 (30%)
Midwest 297 (27%)
West 230 (21%)

Research 2000's electoral college projection as of July 27 is:

Obama 322
McCain 216

Remember R2000 is one of the best pollsters this season (and not that RCP does include this poll in their average).

How is it possible that Obama could lead in the East, midwest and west, and be down 7 in the south, and be tied in the latest Gallup poll.

It's obvious (as Pollster.com has indicated), that the Gallup poll is weighted towards Republican demographics. Because by these numbers, Obama should be up by at least 6%, with equal ratings of regions.

All the current polls are shams, and all the Good ones (proper demographics, etc.), are excluded or forgotten.

MSL

I still think Obama will win the election, but it'...

2008-08-15T17:51:00.000-04:00

I still think Obama will win the election, but it's shaping up as a much closer race than it ought to be, given the background. In Congress, it looks like Democratic gains are going to be modest, which is also a disappointment.

When you peel away all the layers, it boils down to fire in the gut. The Republicans have it, and the Democrats don't. This is especially true of the institutional Democrats. They have grown far too accustomed to Washington, D.C.

Say what you will about the Republicans (and trust me, there are all kinds of nasty things to say) but their political ardor has not weakened. The Democrats remind me of the stories I'd read about Lane Kirkland, the former head of the AFL-CIO, who was known for having the best wine cellar in Washington, and for presiding over the near complete loss of economic relevance for unions.

As far as Obama's campaign goes, that's more of a mystery to me. Maybe it's just that he's had a bad month, and will rebound. We'll see.

Matt JH - I like the idea of penning negative ads ...

2008-08-15T09:55:00.000-04:00

Matt JH - I like the idea of penning negative ads that Obama should use.

How about this:

"God said "Thou shalt not commit adultery". But John McCain thinks he knows better than God. When John McCain came back from Vietnam, he cheated on his wife because she wasn't pretty enough or rich enough and he left her for a younger richer less disfigured woman to further his political career. My friends, he's some kind of maverick.

I'm Barack Obama and, unlike John McCain, I don't approve of calling my wife a cunt"

Of course every part of that is true so it doesn't really qualify as a Rovian hatchet job.

What`s with all the doom here. Check the polls in ...

2008-08-15T07:44:00.000-04:00

What`s with all the doom here. Check the polls in early oct and Then if Obama isn`t leading I would worry.
McCain will have to run the table to win, still a hard thing to do. We will have to see how McCain does in a debate, if he shows his age he will be hurt badly.
He has a hard time getting his facts correct,it`s either age related or he is just not to bright.
Obama has a great ground game that the polls don`t pick up.

By the way, it is painfully obvious that neither B...

2008-08-15T06:22:00.000-04:00

By the way, it is painfully obvious that neither Bill Clinton nor his wife want Obama to be elected.

I don't think there's much question that Obama and...

2008-08-15T06:20:00.000-04:00

I don't think there's much question that Obama and his campaign have been coasting for the past month, and that the Democratic Party (especially in Congress) as an institution has following its customary pattern of doing everything in its power to piss away every advantage.

Let's all hope they can turn it around.

obsessed said... Whether Obama wins this electi...

2008-08-15T04:21:00.000-04:00

obsessed said...
Whether Obama wins this election may come down to Obama showing a real willingness to get dirty and hitting McCain really hard.
And how would you word such a dirty and really hard-hitting ad?

Hit him on Grahams "Mental recession" remarks. Something along the lines of

"John McCain believes all your troubles are in your head. His chief economic adviser wrote the Bill allowing speculation on oil futures, his chief economic adviser helped pass the laws that allowed banks greed to take over thats caused this recession. While John McCain sleeps soundly in one of his 9 homes, and crosses the country on the family jet, do you believe he understands you?"

That would be a good start.

Whether Obama wins this election may come down to ...

2008-08-15T03:57:00.000-04:00

Whether Obama wins this election may come down to Obama showing a real willingness to get dirty and hitting McCain really hard.

And how would you word such a dirty and really hard-hitting ad?

DarianCrow said...The problem for you as you guys ...

2008-08-15T02:52:00.000-04:00

DarianCrow said...
The problem for you as you guys always nominate the one that can't win. Bill Clinton couldn't win... he needed Ross Perot to give it to him... and that is the hard truth. Dole was a sacrifice because Bill was just too popular in '96 to even waste a good candidate.
You guys vote on dreams. Good intentions but just not grounded in reality. You know what I mean? One world... no war... no hunger... no pain ect. That's how you vote and that's why you lose.

Republicans win Presidential elections because of 2 facts:

1. Presidential elections are media wars. You need to control the MSM and get out your narrative. Republicans do this beautifully, democrats (With exception of the Clinton's) do not do this at all. This campaign is the perfect example. McCain owns the media, Obama gets all the coverage, and its all negative. Obama must start playing this game or he will probably lose

2. Republicans don't care about rules or fairness, they will destroy you personally any way possible. They will lie, write vile slanderous books, make deceitful ads, anything to win. Winning is all that matters.
Democrats like fairness. They make rules like only attack policy. and don't attack personally. Case and point, Obama this year. While the republicans are lying their ass off and using deplorable tactics that the media loves because its controversial, the democrats are scared to say a bad word about their opponent for fear that they may cross the line.

Theres a reason we don't remember democratic ads that changed an election only republican ones like Willie Horton and Swift Boat. Democrats have a notion about being fair and honest.

Rachel Mattow tonight was cheering Obama on for his attack ads on McCain in Indiana and she's happy the Obama campaign is showing some fight. Give me a break. Those ads are so damn tame its laughable. Sure they're negative but they're hardly attack ads.

Whether Obama wins this election may come down to Obama showing a real willingness to get dirty and hitting McCain really hard. That kind of attack can't be done while adhearing to high minded politics. If the republicans are willing to slander and lie, the gloves must come off.

The base will forgive for saying such silly things...

2008-08-15T02:47:00.000-04:00

The base will forgive for saying such silly things when he names Pawlenty or Huckabee or Dobson to his ticket.The base will forgive for saying such silly things when he names Pawlenty or Huckabee or Dobson to his ticket.

Dobson???

That would motivate both bases wouldn't it?

I have to say that I'm extremely curious as to whether McCain would far better with a pro-choice or pro-life VP.

I actually made a post yesterday regarding how two...

2008-08-15T01:39:00.000-04:00

I actually made a post yesterday regarding how two weeks ago during the Paris and Britney nonsense Obama looked weaker in the polls and that had all been forgotten.

Todays results will be forgotten by tomorrow evening when the polls revert back to status quo, a fairly close race with a small but significant Obama lead.

The content in the posts are starting to resemble partisan bickering at Huffington Post or Town Hall.com. It really brings down the quality of the site.

I haven't heard a plausible reason for why Obama's...

2008-08-15T01:29:00.000-04:00

I haven't heard a plausible reason for why Obama's partisan support is softer than McCain's? What the resistance among Dems? Clinton loyalist backlash? I'd like to see a breakdown of partisan vote by age group.

At the bottom of the survey, it shows that the cha...

2008-08-15T00:40:00.000-04:00

At the bottom of the survey, it shows that the change is coming from the South +7%. The other regions have barely moved. I think all of this pooling is baloney at the moment and will wait until the election to see what the true numbers are. I don't believe any of these pollster have a clue.

These polls show that the VP pick/Dem Convention i...

2008-08-15T00:18:00.000-04:00

These polls show that the VP pick/Dem Convention is key. If Obama has a successful convention and solidifies his position with Dems to 85%+, then his odds of winning become very high.

It would still remain be seen how Independents break, but with the Dems' large registration advantage, it's simply very unlikely that the Indies would break to McCain significantly enough to win him the election. Especially if McCain continues the same negative strategy that he's been employing.

First, big laff @ virginia conservative. Obama bl...

2008-08-15T00:01:00.000-04:00

First, big laff @ virginia conservative. Obama bled Hillary to death in the primary? I would call winning 12 contests in a row and her never coming within a realistic chance of winning again a knockout but whatever you say dude, keep on keepin' on.

Second, anyone claiming the race is going in some arbitrary direction based on 1 day of polls is a fool, Mccain/Obama supporters alike. Hello??? It's AUGUST. No conventions, no VPs, no debates = no contest. Yet.

Nate,If there is any way you could do some policin...

2008-08-14T23:24:00.000-04:00

Nate,
If there is any way you could do some policing -- or get others to do it -- it would really help. There are so many violations of your single not-so-hard-to-follow rule for making comments that it's difficult to read the posts with actual content and something to say. Much of it comes from a few people who post often yet rarely provide much actual analysis, preferring instead to make bold, utterly unsubstantiated statements about future outcomes or what the American people believe. This devolves into insults and generally drags down the level of discourse. Requiring registration and getting rid of anonymous posts helped tremendously, but it seems to be getting bad again (in my view).

I know that I could just stop reading the comments, but there are some real gems in the comments (clarkejeffrey's undecided voter analysis, for example) that I would hate to miss.

This site is unbelievable, and I realize that you are probably ridiculously busy. I'll keep coming back, regardless, but I now am looking at who made the comment first rather than just reading them all, as some consistently have no substance and are obviously meant just to get under people's skin.

"even when the incumbent is unpopular (... Eisenho...

2008-08-14T23:19:00.000-04:00

"even when the incumbent is unpopular (... Eisenhower...)."

I thought Eisenhower was popular. According to this (http://uspolitics.about.com/od/polls/l/bl_historical_approval.htm) his end-of-term popularity was 59%, which puts him right behind Reagan and Clinton (and Kennedy, but that's a little different situation).

The tight polls in MN and, to an extent, WI would ...

2008-08-14T23:18:00.000-04:00

The tight polls in MN and, to an extent, WI would make Pawlenty and interesting choice for his VP. Having him stay in the tri-state region of MN, IA and WI is worth a point or two and I would give 50-50% odds that one of those stays would go red (or in the case of IA, stay red) with him on the ticket.

If Obama wants to win, he has two choices: Clinton or Warner. Kaine will not help carry the state as he is seen as an extreme lightweight. He won due to Warner's blessing. The presidency is more important than a Senate seat, so Warner should be tapped to lock VA. Conversely, Clinton would help lock up the Rust Belt. Any other pick is a big negative and sets the stage for a 2004 repeat.

By the way, Rome, I am not going to vote for Zimmer in the Fall. I am uncomitted for PResident simply because Obama is very, very green and has shown a surprising lack of knowledge in foreign affairs. I am an American first and a Democrat second so if Obama continues to show bad judgement, I will do what I must.

sorry, one oversight - Johnson in 1968 was also ex...

2008-08-14T23:15:00.000-04:00

sorry, one oversight - Johnson in 1968 was also extremely unpopular but this didn't prevent Humphrey from nearly winning.

A thought on the chances for McCain getting a 3rd ...

2008-08-14T23:11:00.000-04:00

A thought on the chances for McCain getting a 3rd term for Republicans:

Since WWII, there have been 6 elections where a party attempted to retain control of the White House past two terms.

Truman 1948 (seeking a 5th Dem term)
Nixon 1960
Humphrey 1968
Ford 1976
Bush 1988
Gore 2000

In two of these cases - Truman 1948 and Bush 1988 - the party in power retained control. In both cases they were given little chance of winning 2-3 months out but finished well ahead.

In the other 4 cases the ruling party was thrown out. But it was in all cases by the slimmest of margins. Nixon 1960 and Humphrey 1968 were within half a percent, and Gore 2000 actually won the popular vote. Even Ford 1976 came within 2% in perhaps the worst Republican year since 1932.

A sample size of 6 is not statistically meaningful, but this shows that the electorate has been willing to grant 3rd terms, even when the incumbent is unpopular (Truman, Eisenhower, and Ford with Nixon overshadowing).

The conclusion I would draw is not that the electorate favors incumbent parties, but that they judge the candidates in each election on their own merits and give little weight to which party is the incumbent. If history is any guide, McCain will keep this race close despite perceived fatigue with Bush and Republicans.

After the convention, everyone will be happy. All ...

2008-08-14T22:57:00.000-04:00

After the convention, everyone will be happy. All the Hillary supports will finally chill out bc the queen said to.

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