Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Today's Polls, 10/16

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2009-03-12T04:32:00.000-04:00

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2009-03-12T04:31:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-09T03:17:00.000-05:00

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2009-02-08T21:51:00.000-05:00

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2009-01-18T01:42:00.000-05:00

Les- My family has been referring to Nate as ...

2008-10-17T12:30:00.000-04:00

Les-
My family has been referring to Nate as Hari Seldon for months now. The Model should be called "HARI".

Scintillating analysis of the debate outcome Nate....

2008-10-17T11:54:00.000-04:00

Scintillating analysis of the debate outcome Nate. "Most observers concluded that Obama won [the third debate]" is a rigorous statistical breakdown of what, the Drudge Retort and CNN?

I said right after the debate that John McCain wou...

2008-10-17T11:29:00.000-04:00

I said right after the debate that John McCain would pick up a point or two because he managed to land a few blows (though I disagree with him) and calm some nerves for conservative-leaning voters that had been leaving his camp in recent weeks.

For those conservatives who had been concerned about McCain's failing wits, I think he made them suficiently more concerned about taxes and the plight of Joe the unlicensed plumber.

In essence, McCain put some ice on his buring hemroid, but he will need a lot more than that to make it go away.

Nate,You don't need to pick on other sites. I rea...

2008-10-17T10:48:00.000-04:00

Nate,

You don't need to pick on other sites. I read fivethirtyeight.com because I like it, not because I dislike other sites. Your picking on other sites (rcp, drudge, etc) only brings you down.

Personally, I'm glad that Drudge posted this misle...

2008-10-17T10:39:00.000-04:00

Personally, I'm glad that Drudge posted this misleading headline. It gives the McCain camp false hope and keeps those of us in Obama's camp from becoming too complacent.

The trolls claiming this recent 'change' in the po...

2008-10-17T10:38:00.000-04:00

The trolls claiming this recent 'change' in the polls is evidence of a McCain comeback are reminiscent of those that think their football team really can score 2 touchdowns, kick an onside kick, then a last second field goal to win when they have 30 seconds left and no timeouts.

The desperation of the trolls is hilarious. Obama ...

2008-10-17T10:35:00.000-04:00

The desperation of the trolls is hilarious.

Obama will improve our economy because he UNDERSTANDS economics.

Period.

I love this post, but I don't think we should even...

2008-10-17T10:26:00.000-04:00

I love this post, but I don't think we should even nominally give commentators a pass on trying to shape The Narrative. Though it may not seem like it to the political class, people like Drudge do make some claim to offering readers an intellectually honest take on the truth.

We'll never be rid of people deliberately trying to shape the narrative, but that doesn't mean a taboo on intellectual dishonesty doesn't serve an important function. When we catch commentators lying, we should say as much and not make it sound as though it's morally acceptable simply because other people do it.

How about we call it the "Objective Poll Analysis ...

2008-10-17T04:31:00.000-04:00

How about we call it the "Objective Poll Analysis and Prediction Algorithm" -- OPAPA

I just like the way it goes with Obama.

"OPAPA likes Obama this year."

Or perhaps since PECOTA was named with a nod and a wink at a semi-obscure baseball player, we can find a similarly unknown politician to name THE TRACKER after.

Better yet, let's wait until November 5th, when it will be obvious this is the most accurate prediction site on the web, the name it in honor of arrogance:

"The Ultimate Pundit"
"Nate's Ass-Kicker"
"Pollstradamus"
"Little ol' Blog Beat The Piss Out of You Big Boys Stick That In Your Pipes and Smoke It Tracker Tracker Bo-Backer"

I'm sure Nate will come up with the right solution eventually, assuming Super tracker or somesuch doesn't "do it" for him.

Zogby's tracking poll remains 49% to 44% when roun...

2008-10-17T04:09:00.001-04:00

Zogby's tracking poll remains 49% to 44% when rounded off though McCain gained a halfpoint in the exact numbers. According to Zogby, the Thursday numbers for McCain were better than the two prior days.

http://news.yahoo.com/nphotos/Republican-president...

2008-10-17T04:09:00.000-04:00

http://news.yahoo.com/nphotos/Republican-presidential-nominee-shaking-hands-Senator-Barack-Obama-presidential-debate/photo//081016/ids_photos_ts/r1772410910.jpg/;_ylt=Ag3HUSXylA4i.Aq4TQbI7vADW7oF

This photo truly says it all.

Okay, I know I'm going to regret this... but I hav...

2008-10-17T03:25:00.000-04:00

Okay, I know I'm going to regret this... but I have a couple of questions :)

[oh by the way, I enjoyed this article about the election Joes in the Guardian]

I know I shouldn't pay any attention to PeteKent, but I was wondering a) why he thinks it has suddenly been revealed that Obama want to redistribute wealth a little - it's not like he's been hiding it and b) why Republicans think that this policy in any way resembles Socialism?

Even in Europe there are only a small number of countries that truly approach Socialist - the Scandinavian ones, especially Sweden. On virtually any European country's political scale Obama and the Democrats would be about as right wing as mainstream politics gets.

I was also wondering (and these questions aren't rhetorical, I'm a fascinated Brit and I really want to know), why "Socialism" seems to have such power as a dirty word in the US? It's like in Republicans' minds Europe is somehow imagined to be like the USSR - with all of us queuing for our daily bread and crap cars, when in fact all the countries are now fairly centrist and even slightly right-leaning.

Why is that so frightening?

Great endorsement for Obama from the Washington Po...

2008-10-17T02:31:00.000-04:00

Great endorsement for Obama from the Washington Post.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/16/AR2008101603436.html?hpid=opinionsbox1

Best 538 post ever man- I had been thinking the sa...

2008-10-17T02:24:00.000-04:00

Best 538 post ever man- I had been thinking the same thing about Drudge for a long time (he loves stirring up controversy regardless of party, but when the news is less sensational (ie. polling data), he has an obvious conservative slant* ... but no one ever put it on the "airwaves".

*the Drudge Report is great, but people have to remember to be honest with themselves (before taking many of the questionable material they put up- as fact). DailyKos, HuffingtonPost, etc. do the exact same thing to drive or steer the news toward their world view. It's a debate, and there are merits on both sides. Whether you are partisan or not, you need to understand and respect that, lest you lose your sense of reason.

Myself? I'm voting for Obama.

why anyone engages petekent is beyond meit's not w...

2008-10-17T01:44:00.000-04:00

why anyone engages petekent is beyond me

it's not worth anyone's time

he's a repressed , uneducated teenager who spews talking points

NEXT

Maybe Matt's taking into account illegal voter pur...

2008-10-17T01:07:00.000-04:00

Maybe Matt's taking into account illegal voter purges and other election-day suppression tactics, i.e. challenges and such that will work to slow down lines in swing states.

Contrary to popular belief, no way has Obama given...

2008-10-17T01:01:00.000-04:00

Contrary to popular belief, no way has Obama given up on Ga, I live in Atl, haven't seen a McCain ad in a while, doesn't seem like John is spending too much, but it is rare not to see at least one Obama ad per commercial break on the major networks.

Voter turnout is insane here. If past turnout models are used, they are going to be way off.

These are pre-debate right? The instant polling af...

2008-10-17T00:54:00.000-04:00

These are pre-debate right? The instant polling after the debate gave Obama a huge win.

maybe he's just hitting his ceiling!

2008-10-17T00:52:00.000-04:00

maybe he's just hitting his ceiling!

Nice. Letterman just asked McCain about Liddy. T...

2008-10-17T00:22:00.000-04:00

Nice. Letterman just asked McCain about Liddy. This should be interesting.