Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Minnesota: Is Franken Being Too Nice?

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2009-10-02T05:34:24.125-04:00

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2009-04-16T04:29:00.000-04:00

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2009-03-12T22:07:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-12T22:07:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-08T21:23:00.000-05:00

Increased challenges by Franken campaign could be ...

2008-11-21T10:59:00.000-05:00

Increased challenges by Franken campaign could be a studied counter-strategy to Coleman's challenges

As the recount continues, both sides have more information on what the other side is challenging. The more one side challenges for any reason, the more the other side probably can and should do a "me-too."

I don't know how the canvassing board works, but there is certainly reason to believe that challenges based on a specific reason should be resolved in the same way and at the same rate for both candidates. So if say the Coleman campaign challenges all faint lines, the Franken campaign should do the same thing.

It would help to know if the ballot challengers have to document the reason for each challenge, and to do so at the time of the challenge. It would also help to know if the canvassing board will serially evaluate each challenge, or whether the board will take a group of ballots that have been subject to similar challenges.

In doing a tit-for-tat or me-too strategy, I would also suspect both campaigns actually are not locked into a position. In fact, the positioning might be "We really think you should count all these faint marks (as an example) as they evidence the intent of the voter. But if you don't count them, you also have to not count y votes of the other guy."

Right Wing Conspiricist: Back in September when Mc...

2008-11-21T09:12:00.000-05:00

Right Wing Conspiricist: Back in September when McCain had the lead the Dow was at 11,400, Obama took lead late in September and the market lost 3 THOUSAND points in two weeks.
Were other factors a part of this? Of course, but to deny that the market dislikes Obama’s stated goals is deliberate ignorance.

There is no evidence that "the market dislikes" Obama's stated goals. In order to run a comparison, you'd have to see where the market would be at had McCain won the election. And you can't do that. Who knows, the situation might be even worse than it is now.

To say that the DOW average lost 3,000 points in two weeks and attribute it to cause and effect in the polls is to confuse it with basic history--even history of just two months ago. AIG didn't need rescuing because of Obama. Lehmann didn't go under because of Obama. The mortgage crisis wasn't because of Obama. These problems were a part of a bubble that was building up for a long time. And it was the economic crisis that helped Obama cruise to his election. The idea that Obama taking the lead in the polls for a few days had much to do with the worldwide economic collapse seems ludicrous to me.

The market is reacting to what appears to be a tremendous global slowdown. The market is reacting to what has been a somewhat tepid and scattershot attempt to manage it (mostly by the present administration). Now there is a perhaps unjustified but growing fear of deflation. To say that's because of a fear of Obama's policies is, shall we say, a bit of a reach. Again, you'd have to run a counterfactual experiment to have any evidence to prove your assertions, and you just can't do that. So I think you might try expressing your opinions as such, and not as fact.

Now, since we know that most Obama voters do not have a clue and blindly believed his promises to fix all the problems in the world and make the pigmies taller, it will be interesting to see the results of reality converging with irrational beliefs.

That doesn't describe the Obama supporters I know. And if there are some that fall in that category, I'm sure you could find McCain voters who are equally if not more misinformed and irrational. Again, if you're going to make factual assertions, it would be helpful to have the data to back them up.

By the way, the polling does show that Obama won more educated voters over McCain. Overwhelmingly.

James, I'm watching you.

2008-11-21T01:16:00.000-05:00

James, I'm watching you.

Things have gotten increasingly fringe and vile on...

2008-11-21T00:15:00.000-05:00

Things have gotten increasingly fringe and vile on here since the election. It's semi creepy here now. I've been around here since near the beginning, and I've never seen so many creepy liberals unbalanced.

I am a hack amateur compared to Nate, but I couldn...

2008-11-20T23:11:00.000-05:00

I am a hack amateur compared to Nate, but I couldn't help but play around a bit with this evenings numbers from Minnesota.

There are 41 counties reporting their recount results complete. They represent about 17% of the total state vote (18.5% of Coleman's vote, 15.5% of Franken's).

Coleman won these counties by 8.8% but only gained 5 (count 'em, 5!) votes on the recount. Each candidate challenged roughly the same number of ballots (137 by Coleman, 127 by Franken).

Given the examples we've seen so far I think a lot of these challenges will be tossed, so the advantage here (ever so slightly) goes to Franken (having challenged fewer ballots.

It looks like for these 41 counties, the recount will be a near wash.

There are 25 counties where the recount hasn't yet begun. They represent another 15% of the total state vote (17% for Coleman, just under 13% for Franken).

Coleman won these counties by 14% so might be expected to do better than in the first group. Unfortunately for Coleman, having called it a wash, double nothing is still nothing. He may pick up a little ground here, but it's not much.

The remaining 21 counties are partially complete. 42% of the total vote in these counties has been completed, and Franken is up 84 votes. Again, the challenges are approximately equal (Coleman, 272; Franken, 287).

The bad news is that a straight extension of the trend for these 21 counties would like leave Franken short -- probably by less than 20 votes. The good news is found when you break down this group a little more.

7 of the 21 counties are reporting less than 10% complete. In fact, 6 report nothing counted and one reports 9%. These counties represent about 2.7% of the total for the state and broke 52% to 48% in favor of Coleman. Once again, I don't think we're going to see much change here.

9 of the 21 counties in the last group are, in aggregate, 62% complete with their reporting. They had originally broken Coleman's way by more than 12%. He has thus far picked up only 20 votes (which is comprised almost completely of the 19 extra challenges in has in this group). Once again, if most challenges are tossed it would seem that this group won't represent much of a gain for Coleman.

The last 5 counties are where the action is. In aggregate they are a little over a third counted (36.3%). They represent nearly half the votes in the state (45.5%) and Franken won this group by almost 13%.

So far he is up 106 votes, but also has 35 more challenges than Coleman. Applying the same logic as above, he's likely to end up with a net of about 75 votes.

Extend that 75 votes to the full count, and you're at about 206 votes. With the other counties likely to go slightly Coleman's way, that's not enough.

Further complicating things is the fact that reports I've read said most of the ballots from the less reliable scanners have already been tallied (and tended to break in Franken's direction).

I just don't see a total favoring Franken at the end of the recount. It's going to be close. But I don't think he will cross the line.

So that throws it to the more than 1500 (rough estimate) challenged ballots. If Franken's people have been conservative in their challenges and Coleman's have been less so, then Franken could win this thing at the end. Early on it seemed that was the case with Coleman having challenged more. At this point, though, Franken has caught up. Did they change their critera, or have more ballots met that criteria.

The only thing that's reasonably certain is that there will be way more challenged ballots than the difference between the two candidates when the count is completed.

And that's going to make for and interesting round 3 of the whole process.

A loss by 200 or 200,000 is all the same.

2008-11-20T23:05:00.000-05:00

A loss by 200 or 200,000 is all the same.

The Coleman numbers I listed in my last comment we...

2008-11-20T23:03:00.000-05:00

The Coleman numbers I listed in my last comment were wrong - they should have said that Coleman will end up gaining 58 votes in Saint Louis County, compared to Franken's 110. And that Franken had gained 189 votes on Coleman so far (as of Thursday morning).

Sadly, after incorporating the Thursday night update, I now calculate that Franken has gained only 73 votes on Coleman. (Now that the number of challenges by each side is closer, the number I calculate is about the same as the silly counts posted in the Star Tribune.)

As much as I would LOVE Franken to win, I think he...

2008-11-20T22:48:00.000-05:00

As much as I would LOVE Franken to win, I think he may lose worse than if he had just left it at 200 votes!

People get greedy. He may have had a shot next time.

When does counting end for the evening?

2008-11-20T22:44:00.000-05:00

When does counting end for the evening?

The reports of leads aren't real helpful right now...

2008-11-20T22:41:00.000-05:00

The reports of leads aren't real helpful right now because of the large reservoir of challenged votes. Who's challenging what could be important.

The St. Paul Pioneer Press reports a Coleman lead ...

2008-11-20T22:40:00.000-05:00

The St. Paul Pioneer Press reports a Coleman lead of 129 votes.
http://www.twincities.com/

Challenges are one thnig. Examples of challenges ...

2008-11-20T22:39:00.000-05:00

Challenges are one thnig. Examples of challenges are another. I'd like to see some of the challenges to get a feel for who's doing what.

If it's tit for tat, and Franken is challenging perfectly good ballots because Coleman is doing so, too, that's one thing. (I disagree with Nate that it works the refs or the public, or that it has any impact.)

But if Coleman is reaching for straws and Franken is playing it straight, then that spells doom for Coleman.

So, if anyone involved in the startegery (or tactics) from Franken reads and posts here, please enlighten us.

wv - dendem

dendem voters sure don't know how to vote does they?

Actually the 1960s civil rights legislation came a...

2008-11-20T22:30:00.000-05:00

Actually the 1960s civil rights legislation came about with a coalition of non-southern Democrats and Republicans. GOP Minority Leader Everett Dirksen played a strong role in getting the 1964 act through.

Medicare and other major progressive legislation came about though more because of Dem majorities.

But I think both Pelosi and Reid are hacks, and th...

2008-11-20T22:27:00.000-05:00

But I think both Pelosi and Reid are hacks, and that it is never good to have one party in charge of everything over there.

"Never" is far too strong of a statement. Consider some of the great legislation passed in the 1930's and 1960's. How would Civil Rights have played out in the 1960's if it weren't for Democratic dominance?

Eric -- thanks; this involves higher math... :)

2008-11-20T22:24:00.000-05:00

Eric -- thanks; this involves higher math... :)

Judge Pelosi and Reid by the actions in the new Co...

2008-11-20T22:23:00.000-05:00

Judge Pelosi and Reid by the actions in the new Congress.

Pelosi today won a huge battle - far more important than getting Lieberman stripped of chairmanship. She managed to get Henry Waxman to replace the dinosaur John Dingall as chairman of the House Energy and Commerce committee. This is a huge deal, a great progressive change.

I am the Lizard King....I can do anything.

2008-11-20T22:20:00.000-05:00

I am the Lizard King....I can do anything.

@LizandLouFor a quick minute, I thought your blogg...

2008-11-20T22:18:00.000-05:00

@LizandLou

For a quick minute, I thought your blogger name was a shout out to the Lizard People in the MPR ballot!

Power to the Lizard People.

Sorry for the confusion.

"Charles, if you support Obama's legislative agend...

2008-11-20T22:17:00.000-05:00

"Charles, if you support Obama's legislative agenda, then why the concern?"

I support Obama's leadership qualitied compared to McCain's. And some of his legislative agenda.

But I think both Pelosi and Reid are hacks, and that it is never good to have one party in charge of everything over there.

--
Charles M. Kozierok
Publisher & Webmaster
CurEvents.com - A Global Current Events and News Discussion Forum

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Minnesota: Is Franken Being Too Nice?

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Increased challenges by Franken campaign could be ...

Right Wing Conspiricist: Back in September when Mc...

James, I'm watching you.

Things have gotten increasingly fringe and vile on...

I am a hack amateur compared to Nate, but I couldn...

A loss by 200 or 200,000 is all the same.

The Coleman numbers I listed in my last comment we...

As much as I would LOVE Franken to win, I think he...

When does counting end for the evening?

The reports of leads aren't real helpful right now...

The St. Paul Pioneer Press reports a Coleman lead ...

Challenges are one thnig. Examples of challenges ...

Actually the 1960s civil rights legislation came a...

But I think both Pelosi and Reid are hacks, and th...

Eric -- thanks; this involves higher math... :)

Judge Pelosi and Reid by the actions in the new Co...

I am the Lizard King....I can do anything.

@LizandLouFor a quick minute, I thought your blogg...

"Charles, if you support Obama's legislative agend...

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