Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Context on Battleground Spending

酒店經紀人, 菲梵酒店經紀, 酒店經紀, 禮服酒店上班, 酒店小姐兼職, 便服酒店經紀, ...

2009-10-08T05:30:47.705-04:00

酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店經紀,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店工作,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
菲
梵,

艾葳酒店經紀公司提供專業的酒店經紀, 酒店上班小姐,八大行業,酒店兼職,傳播妹,或者想要到打工兼差、...

2009-09-22T01:55:49.664-04:00

艾葳酒店經紀公司提供專業的酒店經紀, 酒店上班小姐,八大行業,酒店兼職,傳播妹,或者想要到打工兼差、打工,兼差,或者八大行業,酒店兼職,想去酒店上班, 日式酒店,制服酒店,ktv酒店,禮服店,整天穿得水水漂漂的,還是想去制服店當上班小姐,水水們如果想要擁有打工工作、晚上兼差工作、兼差打工、假日兼職、兼職工作、酒店兼差、兼差、打工兼差、日領工作、晚上兼差工作、酒店工作、酒店上班、酒店打工、兼職、兼差、兼差工作、酒店上班等,想了解酒店相關工作和特種行業內容,想兼職工作日領、假日兼職、兼差打工、或晚班兼職想擁有快速賺錢又有保障的工作嗎???又可以現領請找專業又有保障的艾葳酒店經紀公司!

艾葳酒店經紀是合法的公司工作環境高雅時尚，無業績壓力，無脫秀無喝酒壓力，高層次會員制客源，工作輕鬆，可日領、現領。
一般的酒店經紀只會在水水們第一次上班和領薪水時出現而已，對水水們的上班安全一點保障都沒有！艾葳酒店經紀公司的水水們上班時全程媽咪作陪，不需擔心！只提供最優質的酒店上班,酒店上班,酒店打工環境、上班條件給水水們。心動嗎!? 趕快來填寫你的酒店上班履歷表

水水們妳有缺現領、有兼職、缺錢卡奴的煩腦嗎?想到日本留學缺錢嗎?妳是傳播妹??想要擁有高時薪又輕鬆的夜間兼職工作,打工機會和,假日打工,假日兼職賺錢的機會嗎??想實現夢想卻又缺錢沒錢嗎!??
艾葳酒店台北酒店經紀招兵買馬!!徵專業的酒店打工,想要去酒店的水水,想要短期日領,酒店日領,禮服酒店,制服店,酒店經紀,ktv酒店,便服店,酒店工作,禮服店,酒店小姐,酒店經紀人,
等相關服務幫您快速的實現您的夢想~!!

情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,...

2009-02-16T23:02:00.000-05:00

愛情公寓,情色,舊情人,情色貼圖,情色文學,情色交友,色情聊天室,色情小說,一葉情貼圖片區,情色小說...

2008-12-03T01:59:00.001-05:00

愛情公寓,情色,舊情人,情色貼圖,情色文學,情色交友,色情聊天室,色情小說,一葉情貼圖片區,情色小說,色情,色情遊戲,情色視訊,情色電影,aio交友愛情館,色情a片,一夜情,辣妹視訊,視訊聊天室,免費視訊聊天,免費視訊,視訊,視訊美女,美女視訊,視訊交友,視訊聊天,免費視訊聊天室,情人視訊網,影音視訊聊天室,視訊交友90739,成人影片,成人交友,美女交友,微風成人,嘟嘟成人網,成人貼圖,成人電影,A片,豆豆聊天室,聊天室,UT聊天室,尋夢園聊天室,男同志聊天室,UT男同志聊天室,聊天室尋夢園,080聊天室,080苗栗人聊天室,6K聊天室,女同志聊天室,小高聊天室,上班族聊天室,080中部人聊天室,同志聊天室,聊天室交友,中部人聊天室,成人聊天室,一夜情聊天室,情色聊天室,寄情築園小遊戲,AV女優,A片下載,免費A片,日本A片,麗的色遊戲,色色網,情色論壇,嘟嘟情人色網,色情網站,成人網站,成人論壇,成人小說,微風成人區,色美媚部落格,正妹牆,正妹百人斬,aio,伊莉,伊莉討論區,成人文章,成人圖片區,免費成人影片,成人遊戲,成人影城,本土自拍,自拍,癡漢俱樂部,AV,做愛,做愛影片,av片,a漫,av dvd,線上a片,日本美女寫真集

情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣,情趣,情趣,情...

2008-12-03T01:59:00.000-05:00

情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,按摩棒,跳蛋,充氣娃娃,情境坊歡愉用品,情趣用品,情人節禮物,情惑用品性易購

免費A片,AV女優,美女視訊,情色交友,免費AV,色情網站,辣妹視訊,美女交友,色情影片,成人影片,成人網站,A片,H漫,18成人,成人圖片,成人漫畫,情色網,日本A片,免費A片下載,性愛

A片,色情,成人,做愛,情色文學,A片下載,色情遊戲,色情影片,色情聊天室,情色電影,免費視訊,免費視訊聊天,免費視訊聊天室,一葉情貼圖片區,情色,情色視訊,免費成人影片,視訊交友,視訊聊天,視訊聊天室,言情小說,愛情小說,AIO,AV片,A漫,av dvd,聊天室,自拍,情色論壇,視訊美女,AV成人網,色情A片,SEX

情趣用品,A片,免費A片,AV女優,美女視訊,情色交友,色情網站,免費AV,辣妹視訊,美女交友,色情影片,成人網站,H漫,18成人,成人圖片,成人漫畫,成人影片,情色網

情趣用品,A片,免費A片,日本A片,A片下載,線上A片,成人電影,嘟嘟成人網,成人,成人貼圖,成人交友,成人圖片,18成人,成人小說,成人圖片區,微風成人區,成人文章,成人影城,情色,情色貼圖,色情聊天室,情色視訊,情色文學,色情小說,情色小說,臺灣情色網,色情,情色電影,色情遊戲,嘟嘟情人色網,麗的色遊戲,情色論壇,色情網站,一葉情貼圖片區,做愛,性愛,美女視訊,辣妹視訊,視訊聊天室,視訊交友網,免費視訊聊天,美女交友,做愛影片

av,情趣用品,a片,成人電影,微風成人,嘟嘟成人網,成人,成人貼圖,成人交友,成人圖片,18成人,成人小說,成人圖片區,成人文章,成人影城,愛情公寓,情色,情色貼圖,色情聊天室,情色視訊,情色文學,色情小說,情色小說,色情,寄情築園小遊戲,情色電影,aio,av女優,AV,免費A片,日本a片,美女視訊,辣妹視訊,聊天室,美女交友,成人光碟

情趣用品.A片,情色,情色貼圖,色情聊天室,情色視訊,情色文學,色情小說,情色小說,色情,寄情築園小遊戲,情色電影,色情遊戲,色情網站,聊天室,ut聊天室,豆豆聊天室,美女視訊,辣妹視訊,視訊聊天室,視訊交友網,免費視訊聊天,免費A片,日本a片,a片下載,線上a片,av女優,av,成人電影,成人,成人貼圖,成人交友,成人圖片,18成人,成人小說,成人圖片區,成人文章,成人影城,成人網站,自拍,尋夢園聊天室

The results of the Obama ground game are showing.....

2008-08-20T12:39:00.000-04:00

The results of the Obama ground game are showing... It's in the rapid loss of the lead, it's in the 33% (!) very unfavourable rating (in the recent Rassmussen Ohio poll).

Those 22,000 calls a day surely do make a difference - people counterreact to being bugged that much.

That sort of ground game only works for Republicans, preferably Evangelicals. More sophisticated voters don't like that sort of nuisance.

It seems obvious on the face that undecideds are m...

2008-08-20T02:10:00.000-04:00

It seems obvious on the face that undecideds are more liberal than those already decided for McCain. If the approach McCain took to appeal to his base was effective on them, they would not be "undecided", would they?

Todd,

I might not have been clear on what I was trying to say. I'm sorry if I didn't say it right.

I didn't say that the undecideds were more liberal than the McCain base -- I said they were more liberal than the entire decided universe. The decideds include people that have already decided to vote for Obama and people that have already decided to vote for Obama.

Obviously, the undecided universe is more liberal than the McCain base and more conservative than the Obama base, but what I was trying to do was see which way they were leaning.

It seems to be pretty obvious to me that they have far more in common with the Obama base than they do with the McCain base.

When you look at undecideds as a group and compare them to decideds as a group, you see that undecideds are more liberal.

clarkejeffrey wrote:If McCain is incredibly succes...

2008-08-19T21:52:00.000-04:00

clarkejeffrey wrote:
If McCain is incredibly successful in appealing to this undecided cohort, he might be able to split it 50-50. That is a real stretch because this is a segment of the electorate that is considerably more liberal than the overall voting populace. I certainly don't see McCain winning the undecideds by the 24 point margin that would be necessary to eliminate a 3 point overall margin using only 13 percent of the populace.

Interesting breakdown. Thanks.

It seems obvious on the face that undecideds are more liberal than those already decided for McCain. If the approach McCain took to appeal to his base was effective on them, they would not be "undecided", would they?

McCain has moved away from the centre significantly since the primary, which is usually the opposite direction a candidate moves in that situation. Smearing Obama does absolutely nothing to pull undecideds toward the right; it merely consolidates his base.

Again, it seems obvious, but I will state it: if the undecideds already saw themselves as part of McCain's base, they would not be undecided. Thus, appeals designed to be effective on the base using issues that do not resonate with the electorate at large are unlikely to yield big gains among undecideds. Patriotism is one such issue.
How many Americans would self-identify as unpatriotic? Not very many at all. Why, then, does McCain sit at the low 40's? Because other issues are more important than patriotism, or because they define it differently than the GOP does. For years now, the Administration and the GOP have desperately tried to define everyone opposed to the Iraq occupation as not merely unpatriotic, but treasonous and actively trying to undermine the nation's security. It's failed miserably. The "patriotism card" is nothing more than a feel-good sop to the GOP base. It was more effective in 2004, but the Republican "double-down" on Iraq left the majority of Americans feeling that they could dissent without giving up their patriotism.

It's not 2004 anymore.

It is extremely obvious from the latest Indiana po...

2008-08-19T21:19:00.000-04:00

It is extremely obvious from the latest Indiana polls how well Obama's ground organization has faired. The man is wasting money on the idea he can mobilize the "people". I say let him keep throwing it down the hole.

Cowbat againI think its Eric Kleefield. The object...

2008-08-19T20:56:00.000-04:00

Cowbat again

I think its Eric Kleefield. The objectionable headlines are never on Muckraker stories, always the election page. I think he manages the paste up of that page.

cowbatNone come to mind off the top of my head. B...

2008-08-19T20:50:00.000-04:00

cowbat

None come to mind off the top of my head. But to be more specific they(TPM) have a tendency to be hyperbolic with their headlines on relatively mundane stories.
An example if you visit there regularly, you'll know what I;m talking about. "Obama lead down to 4"*. That would be the large headline on the front, click on it and its a random pollster that had the race between 3 and 6 since April. Yes its news, but does it warrant a banner? It's a criticism not a carp. I think the headlines sometimes are adrenaline filled for articles that are thought provoking.

*fictional

PeteKent:"[...] I am a committed Rep conservative ...

2008-08-19T20:27:00.000-04:00

PeteKent:
"[...] I am a committed Rep conservative and pro-life to the core[...]"

"It is well-documented that childhood abandoment issues affect the psyche and can compromise one as an adult."

So, you fully support bringing as many kids into the world as possible, regardless of how screwed up they become due to being abandoned or abused by unready or unfit parents? Cool. Because lives of misery, rage, drug use, etc. are so nice to force people into right from the start. There are some who can overcome such a bad start, but the streets and jails have a good number of those who couldn't rise above their harsh beginnings.

Regarding the "Muslim failure of a father" accusation, doesn't the fact that Obama is a contender for the presidency of the United States seem to indicate his ability to overcome his past?

Or are you saying failure is genetic, and it's only a matter of time before Obama marries more women, starts bowing to Mecca, and slips into the bottle?

Seriously, if you're going to pull this kind of hysterical crap, at least try to make it stand up to even cursory scrutiny.

On to the polls:
I must admit, my earlier ideas about how the polls for Obama would keep climbing were dead wrong.
Obama still has an advantage in his GOTV efforts, and personally, I'd expect things to get more aggressive after the conventions.

moondancer: - any good examples you can give? i ha...

2008-08-19T19:45:00.000-04:00

moondancer: - any good examples you can give? i haven't seen any bad ones myself.

Me? I do this for sport and to provoke and know fu...

2008-08-19T19:43:00.000-04:00

Me? I do this for sport and to provoke and know full well that I am a blowhard showhorse who has an overgrown sense of my own importance. The difference is, I realize it and I am entertaining and interesting in the process.

Mr. Kent, you are neither entertaining nor interesting, and you are not, IMO, doing us some kind of favour.
You sit at your computer and imagine that you are able to peer into the hearts, minds, and souls of the entire American population. You simply can't.

You take a truth the size of a grain of sand and inflate it into an entire world by using hyperbole, and then you write a travelogue of your visit to that amazing world of your own creation.

You are like someone who takes the freeway through a town and imagines that they are now intimately connected to the lives of everyone living there. You then proceed to fill us in with the brilliant 'insight' you gained in your 'visit': what is really important to them, what shapes their lives, how they think and what they approve and disprove of.

Everyone here is aware that some people have views different from their own. If that is the brilliant revelation you offer us, then your work here is done. There is an entire world out there full of people who simply don't care what Mr. Kent thinks is wrong with the way things are today. Try 'provoking' another group of strangers with your 'entertaining' inanities.

TPM is simply the best source on the internet. Bu...

2008-08-19T18:50:00.001-04:00

TPM is simply the best source on the internet. But they desperately need to invest in a headline writer. Good grief, some great stories with headlines ripped from a comic book.

somebody tell the 'military expert' John McCAin th...

2008-08-19T18:50:00.000-04:00

somebody tell the 'military expert' John McCAin that you don't win wars without good ground troops. Where's the surge, old man?

Today's LA Times/Bloomberg poll says Barack lost 1...

2008-08-19T18:44:00.000-04:00

Today's LA Times/Bloomberg poll says Barack lost 10 points since June and is now ahead by 2 points nationwide, with McCain's attack ads effective.

Will Barack the arugula eater strike back or br Dukakisized? Of course, he can't deny he is a celebrity or has a messiah complex without driving those memes in deeper.

I agree with Eugene that Greg Sargent is the weak ...

2008-08-19T18:27:00.000-04:00

I agree with Eugene that Greg Sargent is the weak link at TPM. Sargent's analysis is often lacking.

For what it is worth, I tried to do the same study...

2008-08-19T18:05:00.001-04:00

For what it is worth, I tried to do the same study on how undecided voters ranked the candidates on the codewords like the ones you described. I got roughly the same answers. Undecideds lean to the left.

For example, 11% of Obama voters rate McCain as "Genuine". 56% of McCain voters label McCain "Genuine". 11% of undecideds label McCain as "Genuine".

Does that mean undecideds are more like Obama voters than McCain voters?

Its hard to say. Its possible that undecideds have heard less about McCain than decideds. Also, the survey implies 89% answered the question Is McCain Genuine? with a "No". Some were "Not Sure". I can't really extrapolate anything without knowing the exact percentages.

I have noticed that none of our resident conservatives have questioned the basic point of my study.

Undecideds are far more likely to be liberal Bush disapprovers than decideds.

obsessed,abortion politics is all about energizing...

2008-08-19T18:05:00.000-04:00

obsessed,

abortion politics is all about energizing a small but sizeable base and trying to pound the opposition into submission through the unchristian use of negative attacks and claiming the hypocritical 'high moral ground' to confuse & obfuscate the low-info voters.

That way they can manage to win with minority positions. Tie it in with waging christian war on the heathen moslems & the gays & the poor are scum & tax cuts are great, and you have yourself a solid 40+% base of the 50% left who can stomache the negatives.

so in a prolonged election, fool a few more low-infos & one can steal the result... IMO

VA CON,Pete the Parrot said:"I am sad too that I h...

2008-08-19T17:55:00.000-04:00

VA CON,

Pete the Parrot said:

"I am sad too that I have been drawn into attacking him, but what the fuck! In my world he is a nobody."

At least he has openly admitted he is a sad, sadsack of a worthless ass.

I would not want to be in his 'world'. who would ? He is an emotional cripple apparently.

But, PETE you braying ass - you used the F-bomb.

Nate, can you block this hateful sucker and his sick twisted commentary ?

BEHAVE or BE GONE

Clarkejeffery,Are you citing the poll that had Oba...

2008-08-19T17:53:00.000-04:00

Clarkejeffery,

Are you citing the poll that had Obama's numbers at only 30% honest; 28% PATRIOTIC; 51% inexperienced; 32% competent; 34% phony and 42% saying Obama is a risky choice. No, I'm wrong this is the poll that had McCain at 64% PATRIOTIC; and 57% Experienced and only 3% inexperienced.

Yeah, please keep using that poll, you left wing nut.

Yep. Thats the one. What's your point?

My point is that Obama is winning by 3 points within the decided universe and that the undecided universe is considerably more liberal than the decided universe.

If your conservative candidate is losing among a fairly conservative subset, what makes you think he'll make it back among a liberal subset?

What is your point?

More people think that McCain is PATRIOTIC than Obama. I'll cede that point. I don't think the people care.

I think the people want somebody that will get us out of Iraq, get us universal health care, help the economy and balance the budget by raising taxes on people making over $200,000. But I guess you don't think that the people care about any of those real issues. The people only care about the percentage of times that you wear a flag pin.

Yeah, you keep posting this poll you right wing nut!!

Pete, would you say you picked the wrong week to q...

2008-08-19T17:45:00.000-04:00

Pete, would you say you picked the wrong week to quit amphetamines?

Jack,I think DCM is an unhappy stupid man who is f...

2008-08-19T17:29:00.000-04:00

Jack,

I think DCM is an unhappy stupid man who is fruistrated in life that his political leanings have never been vindicated by the popular will. He cannot understand why we are all so dumb and he would vote for a Liberal Dictatorsip if one were avaialbe to him.

Sadly, I am beginning to despsie VA CON as a fellow traveler who is way too convinced of his self-importance, as if anything hangs on his word.

Me? I do this for sport and to provoke and know full well that I am a blowhard showhorse who has an overgrown sense of my own importance. The difference is, I realize it and I am entertaining and interesting in the process.

Va Con is trying to convince people that he is somebody who knows something. He has pushed me over the edge today with his using me to curry favor with DCM. He has done this sort of thing in the past and I have ignored him. I have avoided that sort of behavior b/c I do not want to give comfort to the enemy, but VC would rather have praise and respect here than speak the truths that dare not be spoken elsewhere.

As I said, he is a sad man.

I am sad too that I have been drawn into attacking him, but what the fuck! In my world he is a nobody.

He can go suck Charlie Crist off in the back of a limo and have Larry Sinclair hand him a tissue when he is done. We'll let Obama take the pics.

Now get off my lawn, you effing kids!!!

McCain-Portman '08

CRACkER JACK said,"Pete, do you think DCM is brill...

2008-08-19T17:24:00.000-04:00

CRACkER JACK said,

"Pete, do you think DCM is brilliant?"

ROFLOL - ask a parrot for a answer... that question is too complex for a parrot, crackerjack.