Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Lazy Sunday Linkage: Public Option, Iran, Nate v. ...

Interestingly, the best macro statistics on the US...

2009-06-26T14:10:15.381-04:00

Interestingly, the best macro statistics on the US health care system relative to other countries, like cancer survival and hip replacements, are for PEOPLE ON MEDICARE!

That's right, the United States does government-provided medical insurance better than other countries. When Repubs, desperate for good statistics, say "You can get a hip replacement twice as fast in the US as Canada", they're praising U.S. government health insurance. It works beautifully.

Hence the public insurance option, which everyone should support.

PeteKent is tripping in two ways.

First, he talks about private "subsidies" for Medicare. This is nonsense: if it were true, the incentive would be for providers to turn down Medicare patients, which is just not happening. We get faster service in this country than Canada (and Britain and many other countries) because doctors get paid plenty for Medicare services.

Second, he talks about 20-40 year olds "not needing" medical insurance. Right, until they show up in emergency rooms with malignant tumors or severe diabetes or other diseases whose prevention would have cost a tenth of their cures.

PeteKent needs to get a grip. Go Obama with the public option for better medical care at lower cost!

"The bottom line is that the health care debate is...

2009-06-22T12:29:44.252-04:00

"The bottom line is that the health care debate is not really being played out in the court of public opinion."

Well, it appears to be playing out in the court of INFORMED opinion. One of the problems with the polls is that they do not include any prices for these coverage options. You saw they Dems scramble when their plan, without an expansive public option, was scored at $1.6 trillion.

Ask people if they favor a public option assuming there will need to be huge tax increases to pay for it.

People who say "yes" to public option without being presented with a price are not necessarily naive. If you ask me "would you like universal care, if it were free?" I would say of course. Ask me if I want to pay for another massive government program, and you might get a different answer.

First of all these comments are complete garbage f...

2009-06-22T11:42:04.620-04:00

First of all these comments are complete garbage for the most part.

I am getting really close to just becoming a Republican when I post here. There is almost no balance in the viewpoints at all. (Yes I am annoyed its hard not to when reading all this slanted b.s.)

Now unfortunatly for many here. A large chunk of the uninsured have a reason why they are uninsured. A large majority are young helathy adults who are just starting out and in many cases don't need health insurnace. By the time they reach their laste 20s and find long-term employment many of these people are then covered.

I don't have time to consistently reeducate most of you. Hint you won't find this kind of stuff on huffington post or whatever left wing hack site you are following. You will howeer find plenty of info from google such as this

"the fastest-growing segment of the uninsured are young adults between the ages of 19 and 29, whose combination of low incomes and unstable jobs make it difficult for them to find and afford health insurance. In 2005, nearly 30 percent of people between the ages of 19 and 24 lacked health insurance. In comparison, less than 20 percent of people between the ages of 35 and 44 were uninsured."

f said '@PeteKent: "You have to assume that the g...

2009-06-22T06:40:28.229-04:00

f said
'@PeteKent:

"You have to assume that the great mass of uninsured who are uninsured by choice are by definition satisfied with their coverage."

And why do I have to assume that? The figures should be easily available'
--------------------

Actually PK's logic is incredibly suspect. Its like saying someone who had the choice of cutting an arm of to save there life is happy to only have one arm. Many people who have 'chosen' to have no health insurance have decided that not having there home foreclosed or avoiding some other disaster as more important. It doesn't follow that they are happy with their coverage.

The wider point also being that they might be happy with their coverage whilst they are healthy but then be pushed into bankruptcy when they find they have cancer and are left without help and sent huge medical bills.

@PeteKent: "You have to assume that the great mas...

2009-06-22T05:13:44.863-04:00

@PeteKent:

"You have to assume that the great mass of uninsured who are uninsured by choice are by definition satisfied with their coverage."

And why do I have to assume that? The figures should be easily available.

Beyond that, I have no idea why you would assume rationality in risk determination. Humans don't do that very well. Read a book or something.

p.s. these comments are pretty terrible. Wow. Seconding moderation or reporting function requests.

A question on the NYT poll: You say that they ten...

2009-06-22T02:18:46.521-04:00

A question on the NYT poll: You say that they tend to skew left but that it still makes no difference in the outcome -- Yet from that poll 48% claimed to have voted for Obama, 25% (!) for McCain and 19% did not vote.

That type of gulf with reality can't seem to be characterized as a "skew". It begs the question - where did they find these Republicans? According to this poll -- something like 50% of all Republicans voted for Obama.

Am I looking at these numbers wrong?

SpoonArcherPalin said... My small (300,000) city h...

2009-06-22T02:16:38.004-04:00

SpoonArcherPalin said...
My small (300,000) city has FIVE hospitals competing and duplicating

In comparison to Baltimore (650,000 population, that looks like it's quite UNDER represented.

- John Hopkins Hospital
- University of Maryland Medical Center
- Maryland General Hospital
- Union Memorial Hospital
- Johns Hopkins Bayview Medical
Harbor Hospital
- Bon Secours Hospital
- Good Samaritan Hospital of Maryland
- Sinai Hospital
- Spring Grove Hospital
- Mercy Medical Center
- Saint Agnes Hospital
- Liberty Medical Center
- University Specialty Hospital

Plus there is the Smith Dennis - United States Veterans Medical Center (conveniently located literally across the street from the UM Med Ctr - makes it easy to share services).

And those are just the hospitals within the city limits. There are probably about as many within 10 miles of, but outside, the city limits, and that many more between 10 and 20 miles outside the city limits.

Mike in Maryland

My Blogger ID is http://www.blogger.com/profile/02848893412251095965

Charlie,are you familiar with the "Greasemonkey" o...

2009-06-22T01:59:26.654-04:00

Charlie,are you familiar with the "Greasemonkey" option?

This site needs some comment moderation. Or a "hid...

2009-06-22T01:50:58.435-04:00

This site needs some comment moderation. Or a "hide" or "report spam" button. Seriously. I'll volunteer.

If I dress up like Karl, will Nate buy me dinner a...

2009-06-21T23:53:35.634-04:00

If I dress up like Karl, will Nate buy me dinner at The Grocery? Their menu is fabulous.
I may not be as exciting a dinner guest as Mr. Rove, and his breasts may be bigger than mine, but at least I can offer the guarantee that I will not start sobbing uncontrollably after my third glass of wine. Unlike little Rovey bear.

@Nate: I had dinner at "The Grocery" once. It's pr...

2009-06-21T23:26:54.954-04:00

@Nate: I had dinner at "The Grocery" once. It's probably the best restaurant in Brooklyn, and there are quite a few very good ones. (Personally, I'm boycotting "Saul" forever, base on one very very bad experience there, though it's rated as highly in Zagat as "The Grocery".)

If Karl takes you up on that dinner, make him pay.

doug White... I agree, and that is sort of the o...

2009-06-21T22:46:18.104-04:00

doug White...

I agree, and that is sort of the outcome I am hoping for, except the best thing would be open opposition to Khamenei from Rafsanjani. I doubt that's going to happen though.

Situation in Iran not looking good this weekend......

2009-06-21T22:28:41.754-04:00

Situation in Iran not looking good this weekend... friends in Tehran say that the mood apparently defeatist after a day of limited demos met by serious violence.

Pragmatus You might be right but The Iranian gov...

2009-06-21T21:41:30.232-04:00

Pragmatus

You might be right but

The Iranian government is not monolithic. There are factions. The religious leaders have a choice, throw their weight behind Ahmadinejad whose election is a fraud and hunker down for four years or get rid of him and others who think the result was "divine". Thereby, keeping their own status.

Self preservation always wins out.

Hey PK, I like my coverage so that puts me in t...

2009-06-21T21:26:14.287-04:00

Hey PK,
I like my coverage so that puts me in that percentage. I hate the $1600/month my wife and I have to pay to keep it. Moving to another policy is not an option due to an existing condition which is minor to our health but fatal to coverage.
Public option is the only way that there will even be true competition. The only way that private medicine competes is to buy the fanciest, newest, and most expensive devices, even when they duplicate other nearby services. I know. My small (300,000) city has FIVE hospitals competing and duplicating MRI's, operation robots, and everything sparkling and new. Meanwhile all the perfectly good standard equipment has gone to the landfill. This is how medicine competes now.
I have experienced medicine in Belgium. I had a pre-op EKG with an old device that looked like an Apple IIe. It was 15 years old and was perfect for the job. (BTW, The infection rate at that hospital is better than ANY hospital in the US.) They have the fancy stuff, too, but not for any old procedure and not five times in the same city. It is there when it is needed for medicine, not advertising.
I've talked too long. My point is that there isn't competition in commercial medicine and the public option works everywhere it is tried. Our method doesn't.

Expanding on what Doug White said (and he's right!...

2009-06-21T21:23:41.119-04:00

Expanding on what Doug White said (and he's right!), here's the link:

http://www.presstv.ir/detail/98711.htm?sectionid=351020101

Amusingly, PressTV is an Iranian governmental english-language service! And the Guardian Council spokesman said that to REFUTE the charge of the Revolutionary Guard candidate, Mohsen Rezaei, who is the only candidate still tilting at windmills, strike that, pursuing his complaints before the Guardian Council, which is a totally Ahmadi-nejad stacked deck.

Berkeley- This stinks like fraud on so many level...

2009-06-21T21:14:59.665-04:00

Berkeley-

This stinks like fraud on so many levels it has Nate's numbers brain all atwitter.

Fraud by ballot box stuffing

Fraud by counting votes incorrectly

Fraud at the final arbiter

So much fraud it becomes hard to prove, without common sense.

Oh Patty- I am so far left Mulie can't even see m...

2009-06-21T21:12:37.144-04:00

Oh Patty-

I am so far left Mulie can't even see me in his peripheral vision. But, I am also smarter than him and can see Nate's weaknesses. Nate and Andrew both fell for the "Iran election fraud like ours" meme when it was not even a plausible scenario and they missed very fundamental issues because they did not seek knowledge on the ground. Nate and Andrew still seem to think their own personal knowledge of states voting patterns, that they know by heart, does not influence their analysis organically, is somehow irrelevant to the Master God STATS. This horrendous Iran analysis proves them wrong, sadly for me.

Academic analysis not colored by common sense in well, BS.

Mulie? RTFLMAO!

Evan, thanks for the info on no precinct voting. ...

2009-06-21T21:03:57.162-04:00

Evan, thanks for the info on no precinct voting. However, 50 cities over 100% (and that's only the ones the GC, which is seen as a tool of the establishment, is willing to admit) seems pretty hard to explain. They also didn't address how many of the other 120 asserted cities were at absurdly high turnouts like 100% or so.

Seems like they are trying hard to tamp down the flames but this is not going to do it.

Hey everyone! "Me, not you" is actually Mule Rider...

2009-06-21T20:55:38.933-04:00

Hey everyone! "Me, not you" is actually Mule Rider. Think about it. He's hostile toward Nate, irrational, and is likely to become more and more unhinged as these comments continue. Showing "Me, not you", aka Mule Rider, logic is like showing fire to Frankenstein's Monster.

That having been said, it appears "Me, not you", aka Mule Rider, is working for the Iranian Basij. Perfect career move for a knuckle-dragging thug. . .

doug White... Yes, but what does the Iran regime...

2009-06-21T20:44:18.751-04:00

doug White...

Yes, but what does the Iran regime do when caught in a lie? Simply goes on to something else.

Most people around the world are convinced the Iranian election was a fraud. Probably most people inside Iran too, but in the absence of a mechanism to redress wrongs perpetrated by the regime, there are no negative consequences for Ahmadinejad no matter how much mischief has been proved.

Iran's Guardian Council just denied that over 170 ...

2009-06-21T20:29:26.956-04:00

Iran's Guardian Council just denied that over 170 cities had vote totals over 100% of the eligible voters.. it only happened in 50 cities.
More over this would only account for 3 million votes.

Source:
PressTV Monday June 22, 2009

This is not just a smoking gun... its a torpedo to the heart of Ahmadinejad.

Evan- Ya, and you have missed the youtube vids sh...

2009-06-21T20:17:55.897-04:00

Evan-

Ya, and you have missed the youtube vids showing ballot box stuffing.

Academics, let me know when head is removed from ass.

Mike- Tis true, you can't even cut and paste. Th...

2009-06-21T20:16:40.293-04:00

Mike-

Tis true, you can't even cut and paste. This si not surprising given you defense of Nate who on this issue:

First claimed that the their may have no real problem with the vote

then went on to compare a vote that was boycotted by one side to a vote that wasnt

then went on to compare (and be corrected by Sexton) votes where there were clear discrepancies

Andrew then went on to say he saw no reason to believe vote rigging based on an impssible list of 7's

Go think for your self Mikey, Nate has FAILED on this.

He has tried to save himself in the last couple, but people do have memorie, at least real people with real thoughts and the ability to apply beyond a mathematical model to events on the ground

OWNED!

As a note, over 100% turnout doesn't necessarily i...

2009-06-21T20:12:34.400-04:00

As a note, over 100% turnout doesn't necessarily indicate voter turnout in Iran -- though at the province level it's a bit odd. Iran has no rules on precinct voting -- if you live in Tabriz, you can show up to a polling place in Mashhad and cast your vote and they'll count it (or perhaps not, in this election). As a result, seeing precincts and districts with over 100% turnout is not uncommon (people voting near work instead of near home, for example, can cause this). At the province level, though, this would probably have to be explained by significant internal migration since the last census (in 2006), or an inherent flaw in the census method itself.