Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Allocating the Undecideds

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2009-03-12T02:34:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-12T02:34:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-08T22:19:00.000-05:00

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2009-01-19T08:28:00.000-05:00

Look. I don't know much about political analysis, ...

2008-09-24T06:35:00.000-04:00

Look. I don't know much about political analysis, but I do have a fairly good memory. When Barack Obama was elected to the senate, and I saw him in a television interview, my immediate thought was "that guy is going to be the first black president". Now, I shared this thought with several people, but none of them knew who the hell I was talking about. In contrast, I remember speaking with people who were making predictions that Hillary would become the next president, long before she declared her candidacy. As much as a year before. When she did declare her candidacy, it seemed like a public mandate: like it was their idea, not hers. It made sense. I became enamored with Barack the first time I heard him speak, but it seemed weird to me when I heard he was running in this election. I remember thinking that 2012 was more appropriate. I mean, Hillary 2008 was a no-brainer. I didn't think Barack was feasible. This is coming from someone who loved Barack at first sight, and who was aware of him early on. I was thrilled when he won the nomination, but I think his candidacy caught a lot of people off-guard. If my feelings on the matter, at various points in this campaign are any indication of broader public sentiment, I would say that it is quite likely that a lot of "staunch" Hillary supporters were never against Barack, but that they were confused, and that it took some time to adjust. It took me a while to wrap my head around it, and you will not find a more loyal Obama supporter anywhere. What I'm saying is, I find it likely that a lot of Hillary voters had their minds made up before Obama was even on the scene, and that the issue of "hard feelings" has been grossly miscalculated.

Hey Nate, I wanted to say a couple things about th...

2008-09-22T22:17:00.000-04:00

Hey Nate, I wanted to say a couple things about this "reverse Bradley effect".

First, I wrote a post yesterday about what I think could be this Reverse Bradley Effect(RBE) here.

But I think it can only be applied to exit poll data and live polling interviews. The automated polls where you push a number wouldn't show a RBE, IMO.

There are areas all over America where there is still overt racism and people would be leery in admitting that they support a Black candidate, even if they do so passionately.

Maybe they don't want their family to know, their husband/wife, friends or maybe they are afraid it would hurt their employment(a business or something).

Whatever the case may be, I believe that it's out there. Thanks for writing about it.

"They were +3."Wait, now we do believe the 2004 Ex...

2008-09-22T16:10:00.000-04:00

"They were +3."

Wait, now we do believe the 2004 Exit Polls? I'm confused. Because I'll take that 54$ female vote.

midpointman: Hunt up some registration numbers for...

2008-09-22T14:56:00.000-04:00

midpointman: Hunt up some registration numbers for where registered Democrats are vis-a-vis registered Republicans and come back here to continue the debate.

Michael said... "One way we strengthen the doll...

2008-09-22T14:55:00.000-04:00

Michael said...

"One way we strengthen the dollar is by balancing the budget, something Obama will not do."

McCain's current proposals would cause a MUCH larger deficit than Obama is proposing. McCain is proposing the MUCH larger tax cut, combined with a massive increase in military spending, already the largest expenditure in the budget besides Social Security. Obama's plan would also add to the deficit, but at a lower rate than is currently added to the deficit under Bush.

"I am pissed about this bailout, it's a major problem that must be addressed!"

So far Obama has spoken out against the bailout much more strongly than McCain. Are you sure you're supporting the right candidate?

axmxz - Rasmussen said the Dems would be +8 in 200...

2008-09-22T14:54:00.000-04:00

axmxz -

Rasmussen said the Dems would be +8 in 2006.

They were +3.

You do the math. Polls are not perfect, not even close.

Party ID gaps always shrink as election day gets closer.

"100% BOGUS effort called the McCain-Palin COMPLAI...

2008-09-22T14:53:00.000-04:00

"100% BOGUS effort called the McCain-Palin COMPLAINCE fund?"

I'd like to hear more about this too. I've been seeing ads up for this all over the place. I don't understand how in the hell McCain can accept public financing and still be raising money through this "compliance fund" ??? WTF? This seems like an obvious violation of campaign finance laws. But I'm assuming they are getting away with it somehow. If they are - then why didn't Obama do the same thing and get an extra $86 million for free.

Nate, this adjustment might be better than a strai...

2008-09-22T14:43:00.000-04:00

Nate, this adjustment might be better than a straight 50:50 split, but it feels kind of bogus. Although some of the tweakings seem to make intuitive sense, such as giving Obama a smaller share of undecideds in WV, others --- such as doing the same thing in RI --- just don't seem right.

Similarly, at the other end of your list, it seems weird to think that Obama will get so many undecided voters in places like MS. A fair number of black voters may have been undecided in the Obama/Hillary contest until the last minute, when they broke heavily for Obama... but it's unimaginable that they would be undecided in the Obama/McCain race. Undecided voters in MS are probably all white, and there's absolutely no chance that they will break heavily for Obama.

Anyway I hope you find a better way to do this... Maybe look at exit polls of how undecided voters broke in 2004? I dunno... Good luck.

Michael,Clueless again. The talk of drillig did no...

2008-09-22T14:42:00.000-04:00

Michael,

Clueless again. The talk of drillig did nothing. God you must have gone to the same school in shack that MPM and Pete Kent went to. Gas was down because of decreased demand and economic slowdoen. It had ZERO to do with the silly drill proposal that RepubliCons as yourself belive had a cause and effect relationship. Go look at the days of the huge drops, they coincided with the actual inventory reports released and reports of economic slow down.

josh: Ohio is the way... to bankrupt McCain. Ditto...

2008-09-22T14:39:00.000-04:00

josh: Ohio is the way... to bankrupt McCain. Ditto Florida.

midpointman: If you really think Rasmussen is "ove...

2008-09-22T14:38:00.000-04:00

midpointman: If you really think Rasmussen is "overstating by 2 or 3 points" a 5-point advantage for a party that was ahead 51-38 three weeks ago, there is not a shrink in the world that can help you.

I'm thinking the Obama campaign is thinking someth...

2008-09-22T14:37:00.000-04:00

I'm thinking the Obama campaign is thinking something similar to this with their concentration on Virginia, North Carolina & Indiana.

More and more I'm thinking Ohio isn't the way.

One way we strengthen the dollar is by balancing t...

2008-09-22T14:34:00.000-04:00

One way we strengthen the dollar is by balancing the budget, something Obama will not do.

Neither wil...

Fuck it. You won't listen.

otf, my ass I don't have any economic sense.One wa...

2008-09-22T14:32:00.000-04:00

otf, my ass I don't have any economic sense.

One way we strengthen the dollar is by balancing the budget, something Obama will not do.

Good thing is gasoline prices have not followed this, because they would be up 30 cents right now, not 8 cents like they are.

Still though, the talk of drilling helped get it from $147 to $115.

I am pissed about this bailout, it's a major problem that must be addressed!

real mike - There is a big difference between unde...

2008-09-22T14:30:00.000-04:00

real mike -

There is a big difference between undecided right now and undecideds in the last week.

Obama has to win the undecideds NOW, FRIDAY.

If they are still undecided in the last week, he will lose them. He needs to win as many of them over NOW.

Michael,YOu really have no clue. Oil is up b/c of ...

2008-09-22T14:29:00.001-04:00

Michael,

YOu really have no clue. Oil is up b/c of the dollar is sinking. Just like it has the last 8 years under Boy Blunder. You RepubliCons have zero economic sense, hence you vote RepubliCon b/c you don;t understand econmics.

Capitalism is sick?!? No wonder why we're bailing...

2008-09-22T14:29:00.000-04:00

Capitalism is sick?!? No wonder why we're bailing out Wall Street.

Despite what the polls show, exit polls historical...

2008-09-22T14:28:00.001-04:00

Despite what the polls show, exit polls historically show that around 9% makes their decision in the last 3 days. Another 12% do it in the last month, but before the last 3 days.

That is what happened in 2004..

WHEN DID YOU DECIDE WHO TO VOTE FOR?

Today (5%)
Last Three Days (4%)
Last Week (2%)
Last Month (10%)
Before That (78%)

This was with an incumbent on the ballot. It could even be higher this year.

Undecideds are more likely to hang up the phone. They do not like politics, but the still vote.

@MPM - If it is true that Obama will lose the unde...

2008-09-22T14:28:00.000-04:00

@MPM - If it is true that Obama will lose the undecideds 2 to 1 in the last weekend of the election, then we have to wait and see how the race changes during and after the debates.

BREAKING NEWSOIL IS UP $25 DOLLARS A BARREL RIGHT ...

2008-09-22T14:26:00.000-04:00

BREAKING NEWS

OIL IS UP $25 DOLLARS A BARREL RIGHT NOW!

WE MUST DRILL DRILL DRILL!!!

MY GOD IS THIS SICK!

EDIT TO ADD: NOW ITS UP $18... UNREAL

Interesting Read:The Bradley Effect and It's 'EFFE...

2008-09-22T14:24:00.000-04:00

Interesting Read:
The Bradley Effect and It's 'EFFECT' in the Rust Belt