Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: A Webpage Someone Else Should Start...

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2009-10-09T08:33:54.912-04:00

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2009-08-02T01:16:10.506-04:00

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2009-03-28T05:09:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-08T03:45:00.000-05:00

This list is out of date. Click here for an update...

2009-01-29T19:43:00.000-05:00

This list is out of date. Click here for an updated version (which will not be so kind to Silver's partisan view).

Economics is a big discipline, not all economists ...

2009-01-17T22:05:00.000-05:00

Economics is a big discipline, not all economists are equally qualified to talk on macroeconomics even if they have the same number of high quality papers. You really need to differentiate by type of economist just like you always differential by type of poll. Jean Tirole for example does industrial organization.

Hmm what's the hex code for that color? Those "blu...

2009-01-17T14:43:00.000-05:00

Hmm what's the hex code for that color? Those "blues" look a little "purple" to me...

Here is a list of 387 economists in favor of a sti...

2009-01-16T09:17:00.000-05:00

Here is a list of 387 economists in favor of a stimulus dated November of last year:

http://www.cepr.net/documents/publications/Economists_letter_2008_11_19.pdf

Here is John Boehner's list of 34 economists opposing a stimulus:

http://republicanleader.house.gov/UploadedFiles/stimulusskeptics.pdf

Note that Robert Solow favors a stimulus (as does George Akerlof, who is also a Nobel laureate). Boehner's list includes my dissertation adviser (unfortunately) and is generally lackluster. In addition, Oliver Blanchard (IMF) favors stimuli here, there and everywhere, and has gone into great detail as to what they should look like:

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/spn/2008/spn0801.pdf

Counting Becker and Prescott as nays and Blanchard, Posner and Solow as yays that brings it to 7 for and 4 against by my count.

And I agree with the previous commenters who said that a list of prominent macroeconomists would be more relevant. Some important economists have not taken a public position because it's not their specialty.

Yeah, why not just do a poll and go off of that, w...

2009-01-16T03:53:00.000-05:00

Yeah, why not just do a poll and go off of that, which would be MUCH more effective than actually learning enough about economics to form your own damn opinion or anything!

It just makes me sick when people vote on issues they don't understand. If you think that the economy is the most important, or one of the most important issues, and you know that you're so poorly informed that the best you can do is follow the opinions of economists (even though you know you're far too ignorant to differentiate the good economists from the bad economists - as that would involve having a knowledge of economics!)

The amount of economics you need to know to be able to inform your vote is minimal, most of which is stuff people already know on a practical level, but assume doesn't apply because a bunch of people with intimidating academic and financial accomplishments using a bunch of words people don't understand (or don't understand in the context of economic conversations). Inflation, deflation, stimuli, subsidies, taxation, none of these are things that are beyond the comprehension of someone with basic sense, and so when someone hasn't bothered to figure it out the only possible explanation is that this person doesn't care enough and subsequently shouldn't be dragging down our entire political system with their poorly informed votes that can only improve things out of pure coincidence.

And it's people choosing not to do this that has led to so many economists thinking they're so damn smart, which is why they think they can do things like spend their way out of a recession. They learn short-term economic skills, and figure that if they use these skills in a way that masterfully balances growth against inflation, equality in distribution against market efficiency, domestic protectionism against our consumer and producer needs for access to foreign markets, and grow our way out of the recession without anyone ever realizing that they're paying more for shit than it's worth. They're wrong, and if people stopped being so irrationally afraid of actually knowing what they're talking about no one would get away with spewing such unadulterated nonsense. Right now our economy is like a meth-head who's spent everything he owns on a week-long binge, he's sold the TV, he spent his rent money, he pawned his kid's bike and his wife's engagement ring, he's seeing things from the lack of sleep, and he's telling himself "All I need is a little more meth and everything will be alright, and it won't matter what I did to get it (and all the other meth I've used to avoid having to come down and sleep). Now a normal rational person would look at this situation and say "You know, maybe the solution would to get off the meth." But instead we've got Nate Silver saying "Look, I don't personally know anything about the affects of meth usage, but I've got a list of people who are experts in meth (a mixture of experts who've identified meth as a drug and experts who're experts because they are desperately addicted to it) and 4 people think we should spend everything we have on a major blowout meth-party while only 2 think it's a bad idea, so why not party? It's not like it's at all unreasonable to see a plan of pawning everything we own/can borrow so we can remain perpetually stoned out of our minds could ever prove to be less than sustainable!"

Pure garbage.

The list of economists is troubling because many o...

2009-01-16T03:03:00.000-05:00

The list of economists is troubling because many of them aren't macroeconomists. At the very least, put together a list of macroeconomists to compare it to.

You want Brad DeLong's list on http://feedproxy.go...

2009-01-16T00:27:00.000-05:00

You want Brad DeLong's list on http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/BradDelongsSemi-dailyJournal/~3/deYWRKQUqpE/stupidest-party-alivetm.html

He would be in the supporting stimulus camp.

^link to Becker/Posner posts on this:http://www.be...

2009-01-15T22:52:00.000-05:00

^link to Becker/Posner posts on this:

http://www.becker-posner-blog.com/archives/2009/01/on_the_obama_st.html

To add a two more to your list, the U of C's Becke...

2009-01-15T22:43:00.000-05:00

To add a two more to your list, the U of C's Becker-Posner blog had a post on it this past week (Jan 11), a lukewarm yes for Posner and a skeptical bent for Becker.

I'm not an economist, but nikip5555 is dead on abo...

2009-01-15T21:36:00.000-05:00

I'm not an economist, but nikip5555 is dead on about Lucas. RIght wing economists seem to think the financial markets are the only economy, and they ignore the real economy of labor, production and consumption.

I'm glad to see Stiglitz tops the list, as he is an economist with his priorities straight.

I second the motion to get the Senate cartogram rolled out, as well as the house cartogram which should begin with yesterday's SCHIP vote.

And I am horrified - but not surprised - that according to that link Statler N Waldorf posted, I am a 538 addict, visiting the site more than 30 times per month. I don't think I've missed a post since I found this place in May. I assumed the rest of you were the same way, but apparently 94% of you have more self control.

So basically we have economists arguing about whet...

2009-01-15T19:24:00.000-05:00

So basically we have economists arguing about whether the TARP has a hole in it, whether we bought a TARP that was too cheap or too expensive, and whether or not a TARP will be sufficient in and of itself to fend off the rain.

This is why I hate camping.

as posted on the curent thread...breaking news jus...

2009-01-15T18:51:00.000-05:00

as posted on the curent thread...

breaking news just in this evening:
-----------------------------------
So the DEMs seated Burris today just in time for him to cast a vote to allow the phase II of TARP to pass 52 -42

Biden delayed his resignation just long enough to also vote, but 8 [count 'em - EIGHT] senate DEMS jumped ship & voted 'nay' along with most of the GOPers including McCain...

took alot of arm twisting for Obama to hold onto a slim majority INCLUDING BURRIS...

this would be a GREAT time for Nate to roll out his SENATE cartogram so we can see the dispersal of TARP voting

IF the TARP II had failed to pass, now THAT would have been interesting indeed...

Not all economists are academics.This list is high...

2009-01-15T18:16:00.000-05:00

Not all economists are academics.

This list is highly flawed.

Schleifer at #2 is basically a crook who fattened ...

2009-01-15T17:22:00.000-05:00

Schleifer at #2 is basically a crook who fattened up on the Russian disaster. The economics profession is too corrupt, and the relationship between their science and policies they support is too tenuous, for anyone to take these ratings seriously.

While the crisis was in the making, few of these people knew or cared. Nobody should take any of them seriously without further information.

This is like the list of 200 scientists ascribing ...

2009-01-15T17:02:00.000-05:00

This is like the list of 200 scientists ascribing to the fact that Global Climate change is both here and man made.

This isn't a change. This is Bush II. More spending and tax cuts that don't work.

What is really needed is a cut in the capital gains rate to 10%. This will result in a surge of dollars to the treasury as well as freeing up capital.

Secondly, cut the corporate tax rate to 20%, while removing some of the loopholes (tax preferences).

Thirdly, create an earmark for the Alaskan Way Viaduct Tunnel project in Seattle. Create an earmark for the highway 520 Seattle to Bellevue project. Create an earmark for the permanent expansion of I-405 in Bellevue.

No other spending.

It might be prudent to consider economists by thei...

2009-01-15T16:07:00.000-05:00

It might be prudent to consider economists by their JEL classifications.

For Public Fin:

http://ideas.repec.org/top/top.pub.html#authors

For Monetary:

http://ideas.repec.org/top/top.mon.html#authors

For Macro:

http://ideas.repec.org/top/top.lab.html#authors

I'd conject that this would lead to a more anti-stimulus consensus, since from glancing inspection, only Feldstein and Summers are the probamas on these lists. The problem is that most of these people aren't as vocal as the Cowens and DeLongs on the world.

And my guess is that the Monetarists would all claim that we need to exercise Monetary Policy first.

Yo Nate. I love the site. Your stats help me in de...

2009-01-15T15:57:00.000-05:00

Yo Nate. I love the site. Your stats help me in debates. Keep up the good work.

P.s. Move to wordpress. Blogger sucks balls.

Please refer to (and update) the wikipedia entry.

2009-01-15T15:22:00.000-05:00

Please refer to (and update) the wikipedia entry.

Andre Schleifer's name is spelled wrong and he nee...

2009-01-15T15:00:00.000-05:00

Andre Schleifer's name is spelled wrong and he needs a color for "crook."

Ahh, the IRONY of trying to compile perfect inform...

2009-01-15T14:43:00.000-05:00

Ahh, the IRONY of trying to compile perfect information about economists.

Assume we have perfect information......

Graphically interpret and explain.

wv - oursomer - The report you wrote in the fall of 11th grade english class.

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: A Webpage Someone Else Should Start...

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This list is out of date. Click here for an update...

Economics is a big discipline, not all economists ...

Hmm what's the hex code for that color? Those "blu...

Here is a list of 387 economists in favor of a sti...

Yeah, why not just do a poll and go off of that, w...

The list of economists is troubling because many o...

You want Brad DeLong's list on http://feedproxy.go...

^link to Becker/Posner posts on this:http://www.be...

To add a two more to your list, the U of C's Becke...

I'm not an economist, but nikip5555 is dead on abo...

So basically we have economists arguing about whet...

as posted on the curent thread...breaking news jus...

Not all economists are academics.This list is high...

Schleifer at #2 is basically a crook who fattened ...

This is like the list of 200 scientists ascribing ...

It might be prudent to consider economists by thei...

Yo Nate. I love the site. Your stats help me in de...

Please refer to (and update) the wikipedia entry.

Andre Schleifer's name is spelled wrong and he nee...

Ahh, the IRONY of trying to compile perfect inform...

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