Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Zugzwang

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2009-10-08T07:16:46.324-04:00

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2009-02-14T02:27:00.000-05:00

If Jindal is the VP then Obama has a fight on for ...

2008-07-22T19:25:00.000-04:00

If Jindal is the VP then Obama has a fight on for the presidency.

DJindal is a Muslim who moonlights as an exorcist,...

2008-07-22T19:12:00.000-04:00

D

Jindal is a Muslim who moonlights as an exorcist, except when he teaches creationism and flat-earth physics in public schools.

Colin Powell is "untainted" only in the sense that...

2008-07-22T19:01:00.000-04:00

Colin Powell is "untainted" only in the sense that his gigantic balls -- demonstrated in his peddling of outrageously incorrect intelligence info -- do not allow the anatomical possibility of him possessing a taint.

Governor Jindal is a Catholic convert from the Hin...

2008-07-22T15:46:00.000-04:00

Governor Jindal is a Catholic convert from the Hindu faith.

Anonymous said... But Jindal is a Muslim, isn't he...

2008-07-22T12:19:00.000-04:00

Anonymous said...
But Jindal is a Muslim, isn't he?

If Jindal is picked, liberals should ask everyone "But is America ready for a Muslim Vice President?" If it works for Republicans...

Nate has commented on Indiana as in play, for the ...

2008-07-22T11:35:00.000-04:00

Nate has commented on Indiana as in play, for the reasons you state and because much of N and NW Indiana is also in the Chicagoland media market (and Obama had name recognition there before 2008).

Nate defers to the "model" in interpreting trends. When the time comes, however, Obama will definitely make a play for Indiana, which could even be reflected in an increasngly prominent role for Bayh.

But also Hagle's advisory role, and his likely becoming a de facto Obama surrogate on foreign policy after this trip (and not being a candidate for reelection) may further help draw independents and even some in GOP toward Obama, including those in Indiana.

I think people are really underestimating Indiana'...

2008-07-22T11:23:00.000-04:00

I think people are really underestimating Indiana's chances. Firstly, Lake County (The Gary Area) is essentially a Chicago suburb, and has an enormous AA population. Indiana is also full of very large colleges, Purdue and Indiana being the two largest, and their presence make Bloomington and West Lafayette as liberal as any county in Oregon. Next look to Obama's great results in Hamilton County, a surprise in the primary. Southern Indiana is also being hit pretty hard right now by the economy, and I think that will be a factor. Now of course you need to confront the fact that Martinsville Indiana is the home of the Klan, but much of that sentiment has died out now. (It was once estimate dthat up to 40% of the citizens of Indiana were in some manner affiliated with the Klan)

Further on Zugzwang:I think the McCain campaign's ...

2008-07-22T11:09:00.000-04:00

Further on Zugzwang:

I think the McCain campaign's weakness on economic issues, plus Obama's jump after the end of the primaries, forced them to McCain to make one of his strongest moves: bury Obama as an innocent and a risky person to lead the country's foreign policy.

By making that "I dare ya" shout to Obama, he may have underestimated the potential payoff to Obama from a successful early extended trip abroad.

As E. J. Dionne says in today's WaPo, Obama doesn't have to "win" on foreign policy; breaking even, or nearly so, will do. The campaign then returns to the economy, stupid.

So McCain may have played a Zugzwang gambit without realizing it. He only saw one outcome of Obama's trip to Iraq: the commanders and the Iraqis would tell him how important the surge and continuing American presence was there; Iraq would remain the "central propaganda front" for the GOP's "war on terror." But he lost that gambit, as reality on the ground (including political reality in Iraq) turned McCain's move into a very costly one.

At the same time, we should also recognize that escalating our efforts in Afghanistan (though hopefully with increased NATO engagement as well), any "peace dividend" from reducing our presence in Iraq will be minimal for some time; not to mention there is a huge "deferred maintenance" cost to be borne in future years for our having used up equipment so intensively in Iraq.

Thus, from a future federal budget perspective, keeping our warriors in Afghanistan and committing continuing (and increasing) resources to rebuilding Afghanistan, as well as the deferred maintenance on equipment used in Iraq, won't likely provide any surplus to spend on economic programs at home.

Once Obama returns, the ground game is going to be...

2008-07-22T09:48:00.000-04:00

Once Obama returns, the ground game is going to be fascinating to follow. I do think we're seeing early signs that his recent "losses" are about to be stanched.

And Obama can owe this to some degree to McCain! In effect, McCain said "I dare ya to talk to the commanders in the field. They'll straighten you out. I win." Well hardeharhar, Obama did an "in your face" here's how I see it speech and Op Ed, then went over and both the commanders and more importantly the Iraqis used the opportunity to say priorities need to shift. And it was the Bush admin that blinked first on the timetable issue, leaving McCain with little to stand on.

Of course the campaign ebb and flow is driven by stochastic effects of real news, gaffes, and "eruptions" of one kind or another. The campaign is far from over, and the 527's are barely warmed up.

But so far, this trip is has been beautifully orchestrated. Heading first to Afghanistan was just the right move to focus attention there, and not make it an afterthought.

BTW/ here's another mistake by the McCain and Bush group: telling Obama he shouldn't speak at the Brandenburg Gate. Well you can bet he will if he's elected president. But for now the location of the speech is almost perfect and will afford all kinds of space for a crowd, camera reaches to the Reichstag and the Brandenburg Gate. The location of his speech is a very important historic symbol in its own right.

The problem with polling in these times of fast mo...

2008-07-22T09:46:00.000-04:00

The problem with polling in these times of fast moving news cycles is that they are by definition out of date by the time they are reported.

Looking at these results I conclude that Obama's lurch to the right culminating with his dueling press conferences on Iraq on July 3 clearly hurt him. Not only with his base, but with independent/moderate voters.

The NH and MI results should be very cheering for McCain, as they seem to buck trends in those states that we have seen in other, but still recent polls and demonstrate that Obama is not firmly in control of the electoral narrative.

But as Nate points out the impact of his political shifts is clearly waning and the impact of that has already been incorporated into his standings.

Now the race must be seen through the prism of his foreign trip where he has been seemingly handed a great gift by the Maliki government, allowing him to claim that his Iraq policy is now more in line with the Iraqi government's than either Bush's or McCain's.

It cannot but help burnish his standing on foreign policy at least in the short run.

Obama's prime weakness is his vanity and his inexperience, perhaps even ruthlessness. It has been reported to my ears on CNN both during AC 360 and during their morning show that Obama broke protocol by releasing his statement on what had been achieved with Maliki.

It is fundamentally dangerous for a political candidate to appear to be treading on the diplomatic priorities of the President of the United States and indeed Obama's campaign has already been forced to issue a statement acknowledging this and the primacy of the sitting President when it comes to international affairs. This blunder, born of hubris, may have left McCain an opening, as to which I will return in a moment.

Having Maliki in your corner could also be a mixed blessing. The reason that negotiations regarding the status of forces in Iraq are just that -- negotiations -- is b/c the US and Iraq have complimentary but not necessarily overlapping interests. Obama must be careful not to appear too willing to appease Maliki if there are genuine US strategic interests at stake that would be vindicated by extending and preserving our troop presence there.

Remember that Maliki too is a politician and must play to his domestic audience. He has to walk a delicate line. More than that he no doubt reads the polls, (though perhaps he needs to spend more time at this site to really understand them!)and may see an Obama victory in the offing. Thus he would want to curry favor with the new US President as he has done with the present one in order to maintain his hold on power. There is a risk that Obama can be seen as his tool.

McCain can continue to argue correctly that the Surge strategy that Obama opposed and as to whose success he was in denial until just a week or so ago has worked and that without it, neither Maliki nor Obama would be where they are today. That Obama's position has come into current alignment with the Maliki government's view on reduction of US presence does not trump the fact that Obama was guilty of poor judgment in opposing the Surge. While Obama is abroad McCain must continue to hit that point hard, while stressing that he too has always believed that troop reductions would result when conditions warranted and that a residual force as both he and Obama have endorsed would be a good thing. In truth their positions are very similar, with the salient difference being McCain's judgment was the one that brought about the conditions that now provide the opportunity to bring these plans to fruition.

My thinking is that both Bush and McCain will hold their fire on Obama's presumption to negotiate with Maliki and other world leaders during the course of the trip. It will be very difficult to be heard over the din of the roaring crowds and crowing press. Better to wait until he is back on US soil and then allow the revisionism to sink in once the glow has faded.

In the meantime McCain can rightly stress the twin themes that have been serving him well: he alone showed good judgment on the conduct of the war and he alone offers an understandable solution to our dependence on foreign oil (more domestic exploration and greater reliance on nuclear power).

It is to be expected that Obama will get a nice bounce from the polls, but like his unity bounce at the end of the nominating season it may prove ephemeral.

I don't think McCain will name the VP anytime soon...

2008-07-22T09:45:00.000-04:00

I don't think McCain will name the VP anytime soon. Even if it was a plausible strategy to blunt coverage of Obama's trip, the benfits of that would be outweighed by the appearance of naked calculion on his part to do just that.

The Rasmussen tracker actually shows a slight uptick for McCain today and runs contrary to yesterday's big jump in Gallup. Not sure how to explain that.

Ras also reports that Gore's recent bloviation on the environment went over like a lead balloon, further demonstrating how the Democrats are in danger on the energy issue and if they appear too green (think the Denver convention!) they are going to scare voters. McCain's new energy ad directly linking Obama to the problem is a powerful one and should continue to resonate. It remains to be seen how Obama, a seemngly very clever politician, takes the high hand here.

Again Ras shows that the public believes that the media is in the tank for Obama. Having all that adoring media in tow may begin to wear thin with the public during the trip. Worse, this perception may force them to do something to show their independence during a press op, moments that have proven notoriously tricky for Obama in the past.

I will repeat in a post below my assessment of how the trip overall is going for Obama. It is the same post I wrote in regards Nates' thread discussing recent polls. I do this just in case any of you missed it and were curiousl about the pro-McCain take on the trip.

As a left-wing political junkie, fantasy baseball ...

2008-07-22T09:13:00.000-04:00

As a left-wing political junkie, fantasy baseball playing former chess master, I have to say that I love this site! Nate uses chess terminology and lilnev corrects him in the comments.

lilnev is correct---this isn't zugzwang. For a position to truly be zugzwang the player in zugzwang (with "the unfortunate compulsion to move") would be fine if he didn't have to move. If the player would be busted whether it is his move or not, then it is not zugzwang. That is not McCain's situation here.

Fortunately, there is another German chess term that is more applicable to this situation. McCain's bluffing about picking his running mate is a classic zwichenzug (in-between move).

This is close, but not exactly the proper useage o...

2008-07-22T07:37:00.000-04:00

This is close, but not exactly the proper useage of the term zugzwang. In chess, it means that the compulsion to move puts the player at a disadvantage, as opposed to the ususal case of improving a player's position. Here, you are saying that the McCain's move don't gain him any advantage because Obama always has a superior response. True, but not quite the same thing.

Since we seem to have a theme going of showing off...

2008-07-22T06:41:00.000-04:00

Since we seem to have a theme going of showing off whatever much or little we know of games and terminology, and since I don't know jack about chess, I'll jump to contract bridge and say that McCain has squeezed himself. By essentially double-dog-daring Obama to go to Iraq, he has created the present situation, where he now has no next play that will not hurt him.

Rasmus: Also, schadenfreude.

Very well stated, obsessed. We've already had at l...

2008-07-22T04:41:00.000-04:00

Very well stated, obsessed. We've already had at least one President with Alzheimer's (Reagan, at least in his 2nd term, when I believe he actually did not know that he was trading arms to Iran for hostages), and if McCain's forgetfulness now constitutes the beginning signs of Alzheimer's, God forbid, I certainly don't want him anywhere near the Oval Office, except as a Senator meeting with President Obama.

And I definitely feel that Dole was much more with it in 1996 than McCain is now. His problem wasn't that he was incompetent but that he gave voters no positive reason to vote for him other than his biography. It's very possible to like and respect a person but vote against him for President.

I was asking myself how I missed the foreign polic...

2008-07-22T04:33:00.000-04:00

I was asking myself how I missed the foreign policy superstar slam-dunk.

By paying absolutely no attention, apparently.

My take: In and of its self, just his going there is not going to assuage any doubts in anyone's mind

Ignorance is bliss.

DU: Huh, I didn't know chess had a term for Go's c...

2008-07-22T04:24:00.000-04:00

DU: Huh, I didn't know chess had a term for Go's concept of "gote"

They aren't at all the same concept.

lilnev: The political analogy is a little bit stretched, since no one "must move".

It's just plain wrong. Nate said, "They have to make a move to react to Obama's Iraq trip". But that's not zugzwang, that's being under threat. Zugzwang is a situation where the player's position is secure, but any move breaks the defense. There, the player has to make a move because of the rules, not because of the situation on the board.

But it captured the idea that he who moves first loses.

First, that has nothing to do with zugzwang unless both players are in zugzwang. Second, that isn't what Nate was talking about. Third, that isn't the case. This isn't any sort of zugzwang, it's simply McCain being in a lousy position with no good options, and on top of that he's a crappy player.

Michael: "The difficult problem McCain has is to s...

2008-07-22T04:09:00.000-04:00

Michael: "The difficult problem McCain has is to satisfy the Christian Right without turning off all the centrists. Lugar, perhaps?

But doesn't McCain have to reach center? I don't think the Christian Right can save him by themselves, and the harder he tries to please them the more he'll alienate the demographics he absolutely can't cede to Obama. And, judging by Dobson's conciliatory backtracking of late, I think he'll get the hardcore base whether he tries or not. Like the PUMAs (but for the opposite reason) they'll ultimately give in to the Supreme Court argument, no?

I'm not sure what you mean about "in John McCain's walker." McCain's forgetfulness is a legitimate campaign issue.

On the topic "ageism" - alright, if you're picking a cleanup hitter and you decide against the 106 lb. female candidate, without seeing her hit, are you a sexist? I mean, she might hit 80 homeruns, but based on her physique, prejudice would make a massive amount of statistical sense. With age, it's not so cut and dry. Bach wrote The Art of Fugue when he was an old geezer. Being 72 isn't nearly sufficient evidence to brand McCain as entering senility, but seriously, listen to him. It's really unsettling. Nobody says Vladimir Putin is the president of Germany without noticing the error. He went right past it without the slightest hesitation. If he doesn't have Joe or Cindy to poke him in the back he has multiple trainwrecks without even noticing. I shudder to think how bad he'd be by January 2013, especially considering that the stress of the presidency - especially THIS presidency - could greatly accelerate the aging process.

We're all tuned into every detail, but I've been discovering that huge amounts of people really haven't actually seen and listened to McCain in years. By November, everyone will get a very clear sense of the 2008 McCain, the way he looks, talks, and acts NOW. Again, I'm biased, but to me, even the 2008 Bob Dole seems sharper than McCain. I think it's going to get painful - to the point that even the left will start to feel sorry for the guy.

I mean ... he's a prick and a crook, but he's got a sense of humor and he's been through a lot and has some good qualities. I don't want to see him completely humiliated.

Well ... now that I think of it, I guess I just don't want to see him so humiliated that he drops out and they run someone else!

I can't believe McCain would be so stupid as to th...

2008-07-22T03:44:00.000-04:00

I can't believe McCain would be so stupid as to throw away a week worth of coverage of his VP in July!

People coming back from their vacation learn: "he picked who? Oh."

This is just a horrible time, before Labor day to do much because nobody is paying attention to politics.

As we have seen, Obama got a bounce, and then 10% of his younger voters got disenchanted and went back to dating and wind-surfing and said they weren't "certain" to vote. Then the Rasmussen likely voter screen screened them out and "voila" a 2% race.

Now Obama's getting tons of great coverage about his trip and suddenly McCain panics and blurts out his VP?

I know he hasn't run a particularly good campaign so far, but that would be a sign he needs another new team!

There is some logic for McCain choosing now, if we...

2008-07-22T02:54:00.000-04:00

There is some logic for McCain choosing now, if we asume that a VP will help his campaign.

McCain's VP could even be presented as a co-president. Given McCains age there is a very real reason to wonder if he will remain fit enough for the next 4 years. Frankly I doubt his mental compitence even now.

I´m still wondering that only the strangest words ...

2008-07-22T02:43:00.000-04:00

I´m still wondering that only the strangest words of the german language find their way into english...Zugzwang, Leitmotiv, Kindergarten...

Jindal is Catholic, although apparently he perform...

2008-07-22T01:34:00.000-04:00

Jindal is Catholic, although apparently he performed a rather dubious exorcism as an even younger man. Romney's Mormonism would turn off the evangelicals big time, and even great fundraising would not compensate. Great for Obama if McCain picks either of them. McCain will go for either Pawlenty or Palin or Crist, IMHO. My bet is Pawlenty.