Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Today's Polls and Miscellaneous Thoughts, 7/27

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2009-09-11T07:02:51.818-04:00

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2009-03-11T22:17:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-11T22:17:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-15T03:00:00.000-05:00

Anon at 5:30 PM.I do wonder how the kinds of quest...

2008-07-28T19:07:00.000-04:00

Anon at 5:30 PM.

I do wonder how the kinds of questions peppered into recent polls, about how the Media was besieging POOR JMc, asking the CiC question, impacts the outcome. It seems that when questions are asked, some of the more suggestible respondents then tell the pollster what they seem to want to here (the desirability effect).

What other questions were asked on the Gallup/USA Poll? Does anyone know?

BTW, I am watching Hardball right now and even Pat Buchanan says that poll is a load and that Obama is ahead by about 5 pts. I know he isn't a polling expert, but I do find it interesting that he bashed the results, too.

Er, no. Obama is well ahead in the electoral co...

2008-07-28T18:30:00.000-04:00

Er, no. Obama is *well* ahead in the electoral count. The national polls are not worth much at all. Especially Rasmussen, a right-wing Republican-based poll. I know because I was polled by them a few years ago for the Virginia gubernatorial race. The questions were heavily slanted towards the Republican, specifically regarding taxes. If Obama is ahead in a Rasmussen poll, rest assured his actual lead is greater.

Obama at start of death spiral based off todays Ra...

2008-07-28T15:04:00.000-04:00

Obama at start of death spiral based off todays Rass, todays USA/Gallup and last weeks state by state. The picture show bounce is gone. "Republican presidential candidate John McCain moved from being behind by 6 points among "likely" voters a month ago to a 4-point lead over Democrat Barack Obama among that group in the latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll. McCain still trails slightly among the broader universe of "registered" voters. By both measures, the race is tight.
The Friday-Sunday poll, mostly conducted as Obama was returning from his much-publicized overseas trip and released just this hour, shows McCain now ahead 49%-45% among voters that Gallup believes are most likely to go to the polls in November. In late June, he was behind among likely voters, 50%-44%."

"If you do not have the competance to win a campai...

2008-07-28T13:41:00.000-04:00

"If you do not have the competance to win a campaign, you cannot run a country."

I'm so tired of this line. Has anyone ever run a more disciplined or better-organized national campaign than George W Bush? How'd that turn out?

KRANKY said...I like that Harry! One wonders if Op...

2008-07-28T04:48:00.000-04:00

KRANKY said...

I like that Harry! One wonders if Oprah would have been as successful if her name had been conventional? Linda Winfrey? Cathy Winfrey? It does not have the same uniqueness.
In a way, by having a very unusual name..Barack Obama, it has served to distinguish his identity. When he first started becoming recognizable, there were those repuketards that were engaging in grade school taunts and gibberish. This revealed what ignoramuses they are, and I think made the adults among us take notice.... i.e., if these idiots are against him just because of his NAME, then there must be something good about him.
A number of these complete doofs and goons still post in forums like this one as "anonymous".

I think you are correct...it is the Oprah effect. it will probably become popularly know as the Obama effect in a little over three months.

KRANKY

On the racism front: I wonder, on the basis of no ...

2008-07-28T03:45:00.000-04:00

On the racism front: I wonder, on the basis of no evidence whatsoever, how useful those studies of broad racial bias are in a general election. Things like the job applicants with black names study mentioned above.

Because by the time of the election most people will hopefully be voting for a bit than a name: they'll be between for a specific black individual and a white individual. The more they see of Obama, the more his particular strengths and weaknesses will, perhaps, outweigh the preconceptions.

A comparison might be Margaret Thatcher: the fact she was able to win landslide election victories didn't mean the end of sexism in British politics, but it does suggest that she as an individual managed to transcend gender stereotypes.

I'm not suggesting that Obama is going to win over any white supremacists by being self-possessed and articulate and thoughtful, but with the people who have a more-or-less subconscious racial bias, the more they see of him the less significant that bias may be in deciding how they vote. Perhaps one could call it the Oprah effect.

Let me add myself to the Karl Rove is overrated ca...

2008-07-28T03:12:00.000-04:00

Let me add myself to the Karl Rove is overrated camp.

I watched him on Super Tuesday make the prediction that Hillary would still be the Dem. nominee. Why? The Potomac primary would be a wash. Obama would carry MD and DC, but Hillary would be very popular in VA. The same Virginia that Obama ended up carrying by 29 points was going to be Hillary's defensive firewall!!! I remember thinking to myself "this guy is an idiot" Oh and he thought the week after would be Wisconsin and Puerto Rico, not Wisconsin and Hawaii. Hey they are both tropical islands, whats the difference. It appeared he hadn't even looked at a calendar.

For all his "genius", this was the guy that decided to put $20 million and the candidate's last weekend into California when everybody knew Florida was going to be a much closer state.

If it hadn't of been for some very lucky acts of incompetence by county election boards, he would have gone down as the biggest fool in political history.

As for 2004, its hard for progressives to remember but the overall country was still very hawkish from Sept 11th. I'm actually amazed that Kerry came as close as he did. Karl Rove turned what should have been a landslide into a very narrow squeaker.

"I would bet that McCain announces between the end...

2008-07-28T03:04:00.000-04:00

"I would bet that McCain announces between the end of the Olympics & just before the start of the DEM convention for a max media impact & to be able to counter-program Obama's choice."

Its the very next day. I'm not sure he'll get maximum media impact that way. Hillary will be talking the first day. Trying to squeeze between a closing ceremonies and a much anticipated Hillary speech is not the way to max the impact.

I actually do bet on him doing it this week or next week, even if Obama doesn't go first. McCain needs to get something going and I think the weird schedule trumps the desire to pick last.

Are people intentionally mispelling Charlie Crist'...

2008-07-28T02:59:00.000-04:00

Are people intentionally mispelling Charlie Crist's name, referring to him as Charlie Christ? At first I thought it was a kinda funny typo. Now, I'm starting to think its intentional and is very offensive.

While we are on this topic, what is up with Republicans mockingly referring to Obama as "the messiah". I find it offensive as well. There point appears to be that anybody that is really popular is suspicious. I guess this is their point, I've never really gotten it. It seems to imply that Obama thinks he is some sort of religious leader, which he has never said or implied. I think its borderline blasphemous to use this word simply as a synonym for "popular guy I don't like".

I don't get the whole arrogance thing either. I think all politicians are full of themselves. Its almost a job requirement. McCain is certainly not humble in any real sense. Obama doesn't appear to be more self-centered than average.

A name is just a name. In every election, you neve...

2008-07-28T02:13:00.000-04:00

A name is just a name. In every election, you never have 100% partisan support for a particular candidate, not even Reagan had 100% support from Republicans. The point is, as long as Obama (McCain for that matter) polls an acceptable amount from their respective partisans, the election will come down to Independents and turnout...as always.

choking as I type...Rove's current map of EV proje...

2008-07-28T02:06:00.000-04:00

choking as I type...

Rove's current map of EV projection is actually pretty good.

What gives ? Why would he be inclined to release it now ?

or am I being paranoid ???

Juris @ 9:27 PM said... "If I didn't actually have...

2008-07-28T02:03:00.000-04:00

Juris @ 9:27 PM said...

"If I didn't actually have a job, I'd try to track that. But in the meantime I think it is useful for us 538 fans to look at Pollster and RCP because they're at least showing separate McCain and Obama trendlines and not just a % Obama trendline.

It would be good if Nate could in fact model the trend in "other/thirdparty/undecideds" and run that along the bottom of his supertracker. Sort of the way stock market charts run a "volume" figure as well as a "price" trend line on parallel timetables."
--------------------------------
I heartedly agree & officially second your motion to Nate to add the Other/e
3rds/UN [as well as 'Not Voting'].

re: Cugel @ 8:54 PMyou said, "Although, if I were ...

2008-07-28T01:51:00.000-04:00

re: Cugel @ 8:54 PM

you said, "Although, if I were McCain, I'd pick Christ who really would wrap up Florida for McCain."

I disagree. Live in FL and my take on the ground here is that IF Christ gets the VP slot there will be a severe backlash AGAINST Christ thru McCain which would lose GOP votes - or push all the IND to Obama in November.

Christ has only served a few years as Gov here & made many promises to get elected. He has come thru with NONE of the big ones [lower property taxes, better hurricane insurance, better schools, etc.].

The FL electorate will punish him if he tries to move up already & leaves us in the cold. I am not even sure who the Lt Gov here is...

PLUS Christ flip-flopped in the worst way on off-shore drilling & he will be spanked for that once the initial bounce subsides. No way oil drilling will come off FL.

Then, Charlie is a confirmed bachelor. He has a beard on stand-by if he gets the VP call, but the gay rumours would really sink McCain. Not that there is anything wrong with it, except that ChainGang Charlie Christ [that is his own nickname for the past] is the ultimate hypocrite !

Everyone in FL already knows that Charlie is a friend of Dorothy, and basically made their peace with it in a "don't ask/don't tell" quaint FL cracker way...

But once it goes national & in the heat of the campaign what is the GOP base & UNdecideds going to do ?

McCain already has way too much bad "family values" short-comings to then add Charlie Christ to his side.

Plus Christ is always so over-tanned & smiling that when he stands next to John McCain it makes him look even older & paler if that is possible.

Trust me, it aint gonna happen - but I wish it would because then Obama is a total lock to win.

And on that note, there is no way that McCain will announce his VP before Obama does. That rules this week out.

I would bet that McCain announces between the end of the Olympics & just before the start of the DEM convention for a max media impact & to be able to counter-program Obama's choice.

What else does McCain have to work with that would be a big event ?

Modeler, I think the supertracker is wrong about J...

2008-07-28T01:38:00.000-04:00

Modeler, I think the supertracker is wrong about June to July (as it is in its smoothness everywhere). I think it all took place on the 4th of July weekend. We came out of it and all of a sudden polls looked down by a visible difference. I do not see evidence that there was a gradual decline during this period: merely a gradual growth in our willingness to admit the decline.

KRANKY said...Because of an aging demographic that...

2008-07-28T01:36:00.000-04:00

KRANKY said...
Because of an aging demographic that is overcounted, we are now seeing a "reverse Bradley effect".
Many of the ignorant racists polled as being anti-Obama in fact, have no franchise to vote: as they are ex-cons with no franchise. Now, they are geriatric bigots that do not have cell phones, but they will lie to pollsters saying all this racist drivel that we see the anonymous trolls posting here.
At least 5% of the Repuke vote are these ex-con white supremacists.

KRANKY

@ anon 12:29Face the facts, bub: Obama has been do...

2008-07-28T01:35:00.000-04:00

@ anon 12:29

Face the facts, bub: Obama has been doing better and better with Democrats since Clinton dropped out of the race. As I said in another thread, he's now in the low 80s, which is about where Clinton was at the height of the primary.

These so-called PUMAs you're referring to are nothing more than Clinton-supporting Democrats that, as the numbers show, are rallying behind their party's nominee.

It's also worth noting that the PUMAs aren't really Democrats: the group's founder donated to (guess who?) John McCain in 2000. In other words, this phantom group of pissed of Clintonites who are going to vote for the pro-life, anti-gays rights, pro-preemptive strike McCain never really existed, at least not in any statistically significant sense.

Anonymous Humanist,Take a look at the Super Tracke...

2008-07-28T01:33:00.000-04:00

Anonymous Humanist,

Take a look at the Super Tracker from the peak in June to the present. It's only off by about 2 points in a month, which is about 1/2 the rate of change from the previous month. During this period, the search frequency was also down.

Now compare to the previous two months, from mid-March to mid-May. This is the flattest period of the Super Tracker, and it also corresponds to the period of lowest interest.

I should be clear that I don't expect that every time there is a spike in interest, there is a rapid change in voter preferences. Rather, what I believe is happening is that a spike in interest increases our uncertainty in people's positions. For example, we can expect that the higher the interest in the election over the last week, the worse a 1-week old poll will be at predicting today's opinions on average.

Anonomous Humanist what are you talking about. Tha...

2008-07-28T01:29:00.000-04:00

Anonomous Humanist what are you talking about. That was the biggest pile of crap I have ever seen in my life. Puma On and Off? The point of PUMA is they don't vote for Obama. How can they be on and off? I am stupider for reading your post.

What the hell are you talking about, you are talki...

2008-07-28T01:25:00.000-04:00

What the hell are you talking about, you are talking out of your ass.

re Karl Rove's "I have THE numbers":Of COURSE Rove...

2008-07-28T01:24:00.000-04:00

re Karl Rove's "I have THE numbers":

Of COURSE Rove lied about the Republicans' chances in 2006. Remember, as bad as that election was for them, it could have been worse; there were about a dozen seats (I do not remember the exact number) where the Republicans held on by a nose.

On the other hand, if Rove had said, "You know what, yeah, the GOP is screwed this cycle," yes, he would have been telling the truth, but that would have resulted in an even greater drop in GOP turnout, and a loss of several more seats.

As for Iraq, etc.: that was a policy decision. Rove was a political adviser, and you have to give the devil his due: he made Bush's absurdly boneheaded and (at times) downright unconstitutional policy decisions palatable to the American electorate for longer than anyone else could have.

Rove was by no means perfect; in 2006 he wasted a lot of RNC cash on long-shot races (e.g. Steele in Maryland, as well as several very Democratic House seats), resources that might have made the difference in VA and MO (thus retaining the Senate). But to call Rove a "screw-up" is, I think, a distortion of history.

Cugel, I agree with much of what you say, but 2004...

2008-07-28T01:23:00.000-04:00

Cugel, I agree with much of what you say, but 2004 was hardly the most divisive campaign in history. For more, I recommend the book "Anything for a Vote: Dirty Tricks, Cheap Shots, and October Surprises" by Joseph Cummins.