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Congratulations to Poblano on a generally successf...

2008-04-24T16:40:00.000-04:00

Congratulations to Poblano on a generally successful projection. It goes to show that this kind of exercise can actually deliver worthwhile outputs. The projection did underestimate the total turnout figure by large amount, but in another posting Poblano was wisely acknowledging the difficulty of getting that part right.

When do we get one of these for Indiana?

2008-04-24T08:30:00.000-04:00

When do we get one of these for Indiana?

Nicely Done! But...one wrinkle in the data is the...

2008-04-22T10:49:00.000-04:00

Nicely Done! But...one wrinkle in the data is the surprising youth numbers in this primary. These youth voters are difficult to poll since they typically have cell phones. Also difficult to predict since they are showing up for the first time. If the numbers are remotely correct, then it might just be a win for Obama based on an additional 350,000 plus new Democrats.

A couple of thoughts here.First, there's two error...

2008-04-21T23:12:00.000-04:00

A couple of thoughts here.

First, there's two errors - CD5 has only 4 delegates, not 5. It should be an even delegate split. Also, CD2 has 9 delegates, so you're predicting a 6-3 split, not a 5-2 one.

Second, as others have noted, I think the model is predicting some kind of weird results, especially in the Philly suburbs and the other parts of the Philly media market (Lancaster, Lehigh Valley), although it doesn't affect the delegate totals too much.

CD-1, I think, has changed somewhat since the Census, in ways that should be helpful to Obama. Lots of gentrification in Northern Liberties, Queen Village, and Bellavista will help. There's also going to be a Temple and St. Joe's vote that doesn't show up in the Census (college students show up wherever their parents live), and which will help Obama, as well. Also, my understanding is that the African American population has increased since 2000. So you've got a higher percentage of African Americans, and the white population is likely more educated and less blue collar than it was in 2000 (although I'm not sure if the change is macro enough to make a significant difference). Obama should be close to the border of getting five delegates there.

Second, CD2 should give Obama 7 delegates without much difficulty. He ought to not only get an overwhelming share of the black vote, but easily win the white vote, and that will get him to 7 delegates without much difficulty. (The white voters, by the way, are partly from heavily Jewish Cheltenham Township in Montgomery County, but there's lots of us in Philly proper, too - Rittenhouse, University City, the Art Museum and Graduate Hospital areas, as well as Northwest Philly, all have a lot of white people. But I think we're mostly voting for Obama.)

I agree that CD6 should be good for Obama, but not enough to get a 4th delegate, and that CD7 will be very close. I'm somewhat dubious about your results for CD8 and CD13 (which, by the way, is only part of Montgomery County, large parts of which are also in CD6 and CD7, and also includes most of Northeast Philly). I'd say Obama probably should have the edge in CD8 (although, again, it will likely be close), and that CD-13 will, at the very least, be closer than you anticipate, although I'd still give Clinton the edge.

I also think Obama is quite likely to win CD14, which is going to have probably 30% Black turnout.

IKL - isn't the interior west more German than Scotch-Irish? Although, admittedly, I'm not sure the extent to which we can determine distinctive political typologies among the various different northern European protestant groups at this point.

Thank you so much for your hard work!I just have a...

2008-04-19T04:13:00.000-04:00

Thank you so much for your hard work!

I just have a couple minor points:

I think CD-1 will easily give Obama the 5-2 split. It's over 50% African American now. By comparison, feel free to look up the results from St. Louis City which has similar demographics - Obama actually carried that 73 - 25.

Another thing is I think you might have made a type for CD - 2. You show the split as 5-2 when I think you meant 6-3.

I actually think CD - 2 will be a 7-2 split for Obama. Over 70% of the Democratic voters are likely going to be African American and the white voters in this area are, I believe, from a very affluent section of Montgomery County.

:)

If Obama were to "underperform" by 4% as you say h...

2008-04-18T18:21:00.000-04:00

If Obama were to "underperform" by 4% as you say he did in Ohio, how much might that change the CD level analysis?

What does this model say about the statewide resul...

2008-04-18T16:40:00.000-04:00

What does this model say about the statewide results in NC and IN? The IN polls seem a bit eratic. My sense is that the state should lean Clinton, but I'd be curious what the numbers say.

CD 6 is "Berks" not "Burks". Also, the Amish do no...

2008-04-18T13:42:00.000-04:00

CD 6 is "Berks" not "Burks". Also, the Amish do not vote except in very small numbers.

I'm a bit surprised at the high margins you're predicting for Clinton in certain areas of eastern PA. In Lancaster, Obama seems to have a lot of support. In Allentown, although it could swing that heavily to Clinton, esp. now that Mayor Pawlowski has endorsed Clinton, I could also see Obama eking out a win (depending on which voters turn out). I don't see why Bucks should go that heavily to Clinton, and in fact I would have predicted an Obama win there. I'd be even more inclined to predict Obama wins Montgomery.

Great analysis as always, I love your site.Just 2 ...

2008-04-18T07:46:00.000-04:00

Great analysis as always, I love your site.
Just 2 minor glitches in the text. CD2 should be 6-3 not 5-2. CD5 only got 4 delegates.

USA Today has results by CD, e.g., for Texas.

2008-04-18T04:50:00.000-04:00

USA Today has results by CD, e.g., for Texas.

Great analysis and very interesting.I know that yo...

2008-04-17T16:53:00.000-04:00

Great analysis and very interesting.

I know that you are not using poverty as a variable, but it may be worth noting the CD with the lowest poverty levels is 8, Bucks Co. (if I remember correctly). I suspected it might go 4-3 for Obama on that basis. Similarly for Montgomery Co.

I live in CD 2 and a 7-2 split there would not surprise me in the least. If Hillary has a presence in this district it is very muted.

I also think you're exactly right about CDs 7 and 14. It will be very exciting to see what happens there.

So if Obama has a very good day, he would have 5 more than you predict. I'm keeping my fingers crossed.

This is really strange for me, as I spent the day ...

2008-04-17T01:49:00.000-04:00

This is really strange for me, as I spent the day doing almost exactly the same thing, projecting delegates at a CD-level using regression!

And I thought I was so clever and original. I used the same idea, and a bunch of the same variables, and unsurprisingly got a very similar result. My total was identical, but I had the Pittsburgh CD 4-3 Obama, and the 2nd Philly one only 5-4 Obama. I'd trust your's over mine, though, as my model, had major trouble projecting blowouts properly

Can't win 'em all. Let's see whether the 120K figu...

2008-04-16T19:33:00.000-04:00

Can't win 'em all. Let's see whether the 120K figure holds up. I'll take the under.

The presumptive Democratic nominee is going to los...

2008-04-16T19:11:00.000-04:00

The presumptive Democratic nominee is going to lose a primary in a major state to one of the most disliked people in politics by 120,000 votes. Ouch.

Though it could be the case that Scotch-Irish area...

2008-04-16T18:59:00.000-04:00

Though it could be the case that Scotch-Irish areas tend to be more racist or at least they voting behavior in these areas is more racists (or that Democrats there are more likely to be racist), I think that it is not a good idea to jump to conclusions about racial animosity being the main causal factor here. Scotch-Irish areas are culturally different from other parts of the US (especially Obama friendly Yankee areas) in lots of ways that influence voting behavior and political views. I can think of a number of reaons why Obama might not be a great cultural fit in these areas, though it is hard to say which of them are causally significant.

Finally, I think that is important to point out that ancestry is probably not an important causal factor - heavy Scotch-Irish ancestry in a population is probably just a proxy for the sort of places that have Scotch-Irish influenced political cultures that make all the locals, regardless of their own particular ancestry, less likely to be Obama voters.

My impression is also that American is a good prox...

2008-04-16T18:53:00.000-04:00

My impression is also that American is a good proxy for Scotch-Irish, though most such people have been in the US long enough that they have mixed ancestry that is plurality Scotch-Irish. The thing is that it is hard to get at who is Scotch-Irish since (a) many such people do not know their ancestry, (b) most also have some other English or German ancestry, (c) many might say that they are "mostly English" or "mostly Scotish" or even say that folks were from Ireland but none of this is a good indication of whether their ancestors were Scotch-Irish. Basically, most "Scotch-Irish" folks were lowland Scots or English who lived just south of the border who moved to Nothern Ireland before leaving for the New World soon thereafter (their cousins who stayed in Ireland are Ulster Protestants). A lot of folks also moved to America directly from the Scotland-England border area - these folks were never Irish, but are culturally the same as the Scotch-Irish and moved to the same communities in the New World.

The map posted basically confirms the above theory. Since Scotch-Irish folks are often a swing constituency, this is not a good thing for Obama. On the other hand, it is very interesting that Obama nevertheless does so well among whites in the interior west since a whole lot of these folks are also of Scotch-Irish ancestry. Though in these areas, the regional culture has a lot more influences that are less present in the upper south and lower midwest . . .