Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: On the Road: Reno, Nevada

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2009-10-08T04:00:55.263-04:00

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2009-09-23T01:25:37.222-04:00

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2009-03-12T02:20:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-12T02:20:00.000-04:00

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2009-01-19T09:22:00.000-05:00

It seems to me that some believe that votes depend...

2008-09-16T05:26:00.000-04:00

It seems to me that some believe that votes depend upon.....polls. It's the other way round. So whatever happens to economy, jobs, world doesn't really matter...t's all up to the polls. Yesterday Nate ran an article about Wall Street and Lehman...and the message was: see I told you, it's not the economy...IT'S THE POLLS STUPID ! Well, I bet you, that even this time, one of the zillion pollsters will get it right, the more pollsters around the higher the chances someone will be right. Just like kids at the "Guess How Many Jelly Beans In the Jar ?" country-fair prize.
Rasmussen once got it wrong, then adopted the STUPID party ID model in 2004 because some jelly beaner competitor got it right with this un-scientific model. I repeat, adjusting polls with other polls is statistical heresy - errors will multiply and not just sum up.
But still, if you're lucky, you can get it right ! That's because basically we have only two parties and shifts will ad to one and deduct from the other. Rasmussen has tried to transfer this model worldwide, whenever they ran polls in places with 3,4,5,6,7,x parties they missed the mark completely.

ty marie. I had a 'feeling' it was sumthin stoopid...

2008-09-15T22:47:00.000-04:00

ty marie. I had a 'feeling' it was sumthin stoopid like a tv show.

assmole - Google Reno 911.

2008-09-15T22:44:00.000-04:00

assmole - Google Reno 911.

Wtf is that stupid picture? Did Sean take that one...

2008-09-15T21:53:00.001-04:00

Wtf is that stupid picture? Did Sean take that one?

Let's keep it real. Projected this race all of th...

2008-09-15T21:53:00.000-04:00

Let's keep it real. Projected this race all of the sudden got a lot more difficult. Palin was a game-changer. In an even popular vote Virginia looks likely to go to Obama now, but it also looks like at least one of Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Oregon, Washington, Pennsylvania will likely flip. Colorado is probably lean Obama. Nevada and New Mexico are anyone's guess. Ohio's lean McCain, florida too. Add that all up and you have a giant clusterf***. Your guess is as good as mine.

Real Mike.. Thanks.. I actually am aware of the in...

2008-09-15T18:08:00.000-04:00

Real Mike..

Thanks.. I actually am aware of the influence peddling thing but hadn't heard the term Iron triangle applied to it until now.. Im new to this site.

Thanks for the clarification

I think you might be over-reading the benefits of ...

2008-09-15T17:56:00.000-04:00

I think you might be over-reading the benefits of field operations in NV.

First, Obama's field operation had more efficiency/GOTV difficulties in the caucus than convcentional wisdom held heading in. I'd like to think these problems are cleared up, but I'm skeptical.

Second, the registration gap is impressive, but there's a recent history in NV of GOP outperforming its registration numbers. (If I remember right, one CD there was gerrymandered to be exactly even Dem/GOP registration as part of a resdistricting deal after the last round, but has leaned heavily GOP at the ballot box)

I'm still convinced CO and NM will flip before NV.

VinceP1974 said... I like Sarah because a mothe...

2008-09-15T17:23:00.000-04:00

VinceP1974 said...

I like Sarah because a mother of 5 who runs an efficient house actually knows how to keep thier finances in order , unlike the rocket science geniuses in government

That's a nice sentiment. However, what info do you have that shows she does run an efficient house or has ever managed her finances well?

I know some nice people in various financial jobs who are very organized and handle their money well. Some of them are moms. They would laugh their ass off that those skills qualify them to be president.

Congratulations to President-Elect McCain!!! said....

2008-09-15T16:48:00.000-04:00

Congratulations to President-Elect McCain!!! said...
Wolf Blitzer on CNN has moved MN from LEANS OBAMA to TOSS UP!

Look who popped out of their hole! The smartestest troll in all the land!!!

Wolf Blitzer on CNN has moved MN from LEANS OBAMA ...

2008-09-15T16:47:00.000-04:00

Wolf Blitzer on CNN has moved MN from LEANS OBAMA to TOSS UP!

For Ohio 2004: http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp20...

2008-09-15T16:39:00.000-04:00

For Ohio 2004:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/states/ohio.html

Sean,I'd love to see pictures of the offices that ...

2008-09-15T16:37:00.000-04:00

Sean,

I'd love to see pictures of the offices that you're visiting. How do the Obama digs compare to the McCain digs? How good are the locations? What are the demographics of the people that you run across there? Do you have a flickr photostream that you might post pictures like that in?

Marc said... Looks like this place is becoming a v...

2008-09-15T16:29:00.000-04:00

Marc said...

Looks like this place is becoming a victim of its own popularity - between the retarded hypertrolls (they seem to be exclusively GOP so far),

There are some serious Democratic hypertrolls. Some of them just post link after link to some blog or another as proof of, well, something, and then there was the won spoofing VaCon et al.

It would be nice if we could set up an ignore list, and if they did a better job catching spoofers, but I can deal with this level of noise. Most of the time.

No, dear Concern Troll J.H., for Razzy, partisansh...

2008-09-15T16:28:00.000-04:00

No, dear Concern Troll J.H., for Razzy, partisanship *is* business. He drives a Gooper-friendly media narrative and gets paid handsomely for it.

Additionally, because Razzy got rich off of selling ESPN, which he helped found, to ABC, he doesn't need to work another day in his life.

Hmmmmmm . . . a rich evangelical founds a "polling" organization . . . I wonder why? A real headscratcher.

Anybody know what polls were saying about Ohio jus...

2008-09-15T16:27:00.000-04:00

Anybody know what polls were saying about Ohio just prior to the election in 2004? Can a motivated African American vote make much a difference this time? Serious answers only please.

I like Sarah because a mother of 5 who runs an eff...

2008-09-15T16:22:00.000-04:00

I like Sarah because a mother of 5 who runs an efficient house actually knows how to keep thier finances in order , unlike the rocket science geniuses in government

Come on, WC Con, don't tease like that! I'll ass...

2008-09-15T16:21:00.000-04:00

Come on, WC Con, don't tease like that! I'll assume you're serious, though.

Congress is at one point of the triangle, regulators at another point, and the industry interest group is at the third point of the triangle. Every one works hand in hand to make sure everyone maintains power. Interest groups raise campaign cash for Congress. Congress passes the laws to legalize power through the bureaucracy. The bureaucracy regulates laws favorable to the industry. Then the cycle starts again.

It's as American as apple pie.

Oct - I agree. There are about 289357923 things y...

2008-09-15T16:20:00.001-04:00

Oct - I agree. There are about 289357923 things you could attack Obama on that are more current and substantive. Why, oh why, go after him for work he did at age 25 or so that was dedicated toward improving citizens' rights and knowledge of issues that affected them in their community?

That, and it was just in very poor taste.

Plus - isn't the whole get-out-the-vote effort kind of like community organizing? Hmmmm....

Congratulations to President-Elect McCain!!! said....

2008-09-15T16:20:00.000-04:00

Congratulations to President-Elect McCain!!! said...
YES!

Even the liberal Chuck Todd admits to the MCCAIN SURGE!

Hey troll, I was wondering what your opinion is on what the U.S. markets will do tomorrow.

That way, I can do the opposite and make some money!!!

These polls are like shifting sands.Is it it the e...

2008-09-15T16:14:00.000-04:00

These polls are like shifting sands.

Is it it the electorate or maybe .... maybe Nate was right and the bounce is a like a dead bird fallin' from a tree somewhere in MN?

GIULIANI and PALIN mocking Obama as a community organizer. That tone is not what America wants anymore. It will resonate as the death cry of the last generation of the Neo-Cons. Desperate times to mock Service to Ones country.