Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Oregon Projection: Obama by 13

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2009-02-08T22:25:00.000-05:00

Betcha he does better in district five than three....

2008-05-20T16:41:00.000-04:00

Betcha he does better in district five than three.

I would add to the sense that Oregon just does not...

2008-05-20T14:29:00.000-04:00

I would add to the sense that Oregon just does not have that many "conservative Democrats" There are enough liberals statewide that the party hasn't needed to reach out to "Regan democrats" the vast majority of people who would have been effected by the Flag Pin/Reverend Wright/Bitter type nonsense in Oregon are Republicans!

You note that WA's primary was a beauty contest an...

2008-05-20T14:22:00.000-04:00

You note that WA's primary was a beauty contest and that you didn't directly use it in your estimate. I think, and I could be wrong, that the results of the primary don't necessarily mirror how an actual primary would have gone. A lot of Obama supporters wouldn't show up because they know it doesn't count, and he didn't bother with a ground game.

As a Minnesota-living Hispanic who has about 100 r...

2008-05-20T13:36:00.000-04:00

As a Minnesota-living Hispanic who has about 100 relatives along the Texas-Mexico border, I can say with some certainty that there is a big chunk, maybe half, that's race. This is a function of many things, the belief among activists that blacks have taken advantage of hispanics, the desire to be seen as 'white' or more 'european' that is the legacy of Spanish-Mexican colonialism economics and generational divide.

Exit Polls. Unfortunately, we'll only have exit-p...

2008-05-20T03:38:00.000-04:00

Exit Polls. Unfortunately, we'll only have exit-polling out of West Virginia on the night of the Oregon/W.Va. primaries. I'll again be turning off the major cable networks to avoid listening to the garbage on TV talking about Obama's 'rural working classs white' problem (especially that dunce Norah O'Donell on MSNBC - she sounds like a broken record on election nights). D@mn I wish there waw exit polling out of Oregon to counter the stupid 'rural working-class white' argument...

I'm going by the exit polls. For 27 primaries, th...

2008-05-20T01:31:00.000-04:00

I'm going by the exit polls. For 27 primaries, they've asked people whether the gender of the candidate was an important factor in their decision. Among those who say yes, Clinton generally performs disproportionately well, especially in the northeast and southwest. Below are the states for which we have exit poll data, along with Clinton's estimated net gain due to people who claimed gender was an important factor:

17.60% New Mexico
14.50% New York
11.56% Vermont
11.55% Connecticut
10.60% Massachusetts
10.12% California
9.20% New Jersey
8.80% Pennsylvania
8.71% Utah
8.19% Rhode Island
7.35% Wisconsin
6.90% Arizona
5.06% Illinois
5.06% Texas
5.04% Georgia
4.14% Missouri
3.78% Delaware
3.52% Tennessee
3.24% West Virginia
2.88% Indiana
2.16% Oklahoma
2.15% Ohio
1.44% Louisiana
1.33% Arkansas
0.63% North Carolina
-0.28% Alabama
-7.28% Mississippi

Note that gender really helped her even in states like Vermont and Utah which Obama won big. On the other hand, it was not very helpful at all in her home state of Arkansas.

The only states in which her gender hurt her, according to exit polls, were Alabama and Mississippi. I didn't see it covered in any of the MSM, but gender seems to have been at least as important as race (in terms of net votes) in MS.

Of course people might lie in these polls, but the regional trends are interesting.

I think it would be hard to separate the "pro-woma...

2008-05-19T23:56:00.000-04:00

I think it would be hard to separate the "pro-woman" vote in the northeast from Clinton's status as a local pol, and the consequent support of the local party machinery. Not to mention that Obama went barnstorming through everything *but* the traditional Democratic strongholds in the leadup to Super Tuesday. He would probably have done better in NY and NJ if he had actually gone there (but would have lost some of his big wins out west, simply for not having the time).

The northeast was very heavily front-loaded into Super Tuesday.

As of 3:20 PM PST today, the ballot returns are:45...

2008-05-19T22:44:00.000-04:00

As of 3:20 PM PST today, the ballot returns are:

453479 Democrat 52% of registrants

254522 Republican 38%
92089 nonpartisan 19%

http://blog.oregonlive.com/mapesonpolitics/2008/05/ballot_returns__5_19_08a.pdf

Hey Poblano,Have you looked at internet usage as a...

2008-05-19T21:59:00.000-04:00

Hey Poblano,

Have you looked at internet usage as a variable? Here's a list of states ranked by internet usage, in increasing order:

http://www.ntia.doc.gov/reports/2008/Table_HouseholdInternet2007.pdf

58.20 West Virginia
59.73 Mississippi
60.61 Alabama
61.98 Arkansas
63.15 Louisiana
63.69 Oklahoma
65.85 Tennessee
66.67 Kentucky
66.75 South Carolina
67.31 Missouri
67.42 New Mexico
67.78 North Carolina
68.00 New York
68.03 Indiana
68.12 Texas
68.57 Montana
69.13 Ohio
69.26 Pennsylvania
69.74 Florida
69.87 Idaho
70.68 Michigan
71.73 Arizona
71.95 Georgia
72.48 Rhode Island
72.51 Hawaii
72.59 North Dakota
72.75 Delaware
72.92 Massachusetts
73.36 Illinois
73.39 Connecticut
73.40 Nevada
73.63 South Dakota
73.63 Iowa
73.64 California
73.85 Nebraska
74.08 New Jersey
74.53 Maine
74.70 Washington, DC
75.04 Virginia
75.28 Oregon
76.42 Wyoming
76.60 Wisconsin
76.72 Kansas
76.76 Maryland
78.63 Minnesota
78.89 Colorado
79.42 Vermont
80.60 New Hampshire
81.67 Washington
82.00 Utah
84.25 Alaska

Idaho is the real outlier here, but this supports my suspicion that the internet has played a big role in this race.

Something else I've observed is that there are regional variations to the voting. For example, in addition to the widely observed Appalachia effect, exit polls indicate that the pro-woman vote is very strong in the northeast.

Hopefully the under 30 crowd will really deliver f...

2008-05-19T20:23:00.000-04:00

Hopefully the under 30 crowd will really deliver for Obama and I think that is not reflected in any numbers. So Obama by at least 18.

871,922 registered Dems by the deadline in Oregon....

2008-05-19T19:57:00.000-04:00

871,922 registered Dems by the deadline in Oregon.

Link: http://blog.oregonlive.com/mapesonpolitics/2008/05/a_first_look_at_oregons_new_vo.html

With today's returns and E-Day's returns yet to be counted, 727,527 ballots returned.
Link (pdf): http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/may202008/daily.pdf

Dems might be close to 500K of that already if the ratio is 2:1. I don't know if the Republican primary is open to indies.

I also think Obama will win OR-2 and I'm just not worried about it, based on a lot of time in Eastern Montana where the dynamics and demographics are similar. 129,774 ballots have been returned there so far, with 38,722 in the county with Medford and Ashland, and 28,392 from the county with Bend.

fascinating how finely threaded the Clintonista ne...

2008-05-19T19:37:00.000-04:00

fascinating how finely threaded the Clintonista needle must be, which is why so many no longer view it seriously. Following on the grand tradition of caucuses don't count, of only swing states that Clinton won count (Ohio, Penn yes, Wisconsin, Missouri no) that only big states count (but only ones that Clinton won (California, New York, yes, Georgia, Illinois no), comes the latest...only white working class voters from appalachia count (Ohio, Penn, West Virginia) not from the midwest or South or the west (Oregon, Iowa, Wisconsin, Virginia). It is going to be jaw-dropping to watch the Clintonistas spin it so conservative white voters in Kentucky (a state with 7% Af-Am that rarely goes Dem) count but white working class voters in actual swing state Oregon (less than 2% Af-Am) don't count. It is the type of pretzel logic that would make squealer from animal farm shake his head in disgust and awe.

"The people suggesting that SurveyUSA waited . . ....

2008-05-19T19:07:00.001-04:00

"The people suggesting that SurveyUSA waited . . . ."

I really was just making a joke about the coincidence in numbers and timing, and perhaps paying a compliment to Poblano that this could possibly happen. I no doubt SUSA does not adjust their numbers to match Poblano. Perhaps I need to add "LOL" next time?

"The people suggesting that SurveyUSA waited . . ....

2008-05-19T19:07:00.000-04:00

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Oregon Projection: Obama by 13

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Betcha he does better in district five than three....

I would add to the sense that Oregon just does not...

You note that WA's primary was a beauty contest an...

As a Minnesota-living Hispanic who has about 100 r...

Exit Polls. Unfortunately, we'll only have exit-p...

I'm going by the exit polls. For 27 primaries, th...

I think it would be hard to separate the "pro-woma...

As of 3:20 PM PST today, the ballot returns are:45...

Hey Poblano,Have you looked at internet usage as a...

Hopefully the under 30 crowd will really deliver f...

871,922 registered Dems by the deadline in Oregon....

fascinating how finely threaded the Clintonista ne...

"The people suggesting that SurveyUSA waited . . ....

"The people suggesting that SurveyUSA waited . . ....

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