Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Palin v. Murkowski Cold War Heating Up? Polls Sho...

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2009-01-16T04:25:00.000-05:00

Pow! Well done Kos.

2009-01-07T23:54:00.000-05:00

Pow! Well done Kos.

I don't think it's fair to knock this second poll ...

2009-01-07T18:55:00.000-05:00

I don't think it's fair to knock this second poll because the blog that commissioned it is anti-Palin. I don't care for that criticism hurled against me and my site's R2K polling, so I don't like seeing it hurled against others UNLESS there's evidence that the publication cherrypicked or skewed results or whatnot. That's why Daily Kos releases every question, result, and crosstabs we poll. Everything.

A better argument would be based on results. Everyone blew the House and Senate race, thanks to that weird and creepy "Bradley Effect" where respondents didn't want to admit they would vote for the felons.

On the other hand, one pollster nailed the presidential numbers:

Dittman: 52-41 (10/31-11/2)
R2K: 58-39 (10/31-11/2)
Hayes: 48-45 (11/2)
Ivan-Moore: 53-42 (10/17-19)
Actual numbers: 60-38

And surprising to me, it was the only outfit in the bunch that isn't based in Alaska.

@peterkentSo you are saying that Sarah Palin is th...

2009-01-07T16:09:00.000-05:00

@peterkent

So you are saying that Sarah Palin is the next Ronald Reagan? What had she done to make her become the next Reagan? Be pretty? Pregnant daughter? what? At least Ronald had two terms as a governor, and was able to read a good line because he was a b- actor.

Beside, the only time hollywood had ever been in the White house was when Ronald Reagan was president. and yet the republicans hate Hollywood.

I don't see it as a 51-point gap, more like half t...

2009-01-07T15:05:00.000-05:00

I don't see it as a 51-point gap, more like half that. When one poll has candidate A up 51-49 and the other poll has candidate B up by the same margin, they're two points different, not 4.

Let's see. Nate posts whorishly and is a doucheba...

2009-01-07T14:42:00.000-05:00

Let's see. Nate posts whorishly and is a douchebag. Republicans are hate-filled RETHUGLICANS or REPUGNICUNTS and they're against stupid idiotic DUMBOCRATS. What am I missing? LIBERAL LIARS? REPUBLICAN MURDERERS?

Discussion sites are only valuable to the extent that the participants can show some sense of decorum and respect for differing views, even when the views expressed are contrary to one's worldview.

You disagree with Nate's analysis of the Burris thing, whether it's the political or legal aspects? Fine. Poke holes in his actual argument.

Nate puts a lot of work into this site, just like he put a lot of work into developing PECOTA. I can speak from personal experience how much work goes into developing these types of models.

By being unable to maintain even a facade of civility, you're disrespecting Nate and his hard work. This obviously goes to the minority of the posters on this site, but it doesn't take a large minority to ruin it for everyone else.

On Blago and Burris I am betting that Burris gets ...

2009-01-07T14:26:00.000-05:00

On Blago and Burris I am betting that Burris gets seated and no deal is made. He is the presumptive candidate to succeed himself in 2010.

Re Blago I think Fitzpatrick shot his wad way to quick and ought to go out and get himself a tube of Mandelay.

Blago may be crass and profane, but what he did is normal for politics everywhere.

Those who protest his actions sound like Claude Rains in Casablanca: "I'm shocked . . . shocked that gambling is going on here!"

Blago will have the last laugh and will torment Obama and the weasel Emmanuel for years!

I am fairly confident that Palin owns the Republic...

2009-01-07T14:17:00.000-05:00

I am fairly confident that Palin owns the Republican Party right now and need only assert herself to capture whatever it is she wants. This is as true in Alaska as it is nationally.

It will be interesting to see how party leaders react to the looming shadow she casts over Republican politics. No one in the party since Ronald Reagan has attracted such support. She is an asset that needs to be handled very carefully. Not least of all because the Democrat opposition continues to caricature and minimize her as they did Reagan. And what did that get them? Oh, about 25 years in the dog house!

@Joe The Fake Virginian:Unless there is an FBI-tap...

2009-01-07T13:15:00.000-05:00

@Joe The Fake Virginian:
Unless there is an FBI-tape with Burris offering/accepting a quid quo pro for the seat, most observers saw very little that could prevent his seating.

It's not likely that there is such a tape. Blago would more likely have beeen buying than selling: he needed someone compliant to carry through with his big f-u appointment. Of course, with Burris' ego, Blago wouldn't have had to offer anything. I wonder what he offered to Rush, though.

For the record, Alaska has not "always" been polit...

2009-01-07T13:13:00.000-05:00

For the record, Alaska has not "always" been politically backwards. Alaska was primarily working-class, union Democrat in its early days. The shift to conservative politics came with the oil boom.

Also for the record, if it comes down to it, I will change my party affiliation to vote for Sen. Murkowski over S.Pa in the Republican primary. And I'm not alone.

If I understand it correctly, the SoS of Ill. stil...

2009-01-07T13:10:00.000-05:00

If I understand it correctly, the SoS of Ill. still needs to sign off on this. Until then, he couldn't be legally seated. Once the SoS signs off on this, Burris can show back up. Reid, having to uphold the law and having his hands ties, will give the Secretary of the Senate the go ahead to allow him entry now that his credentials are in order. At that point, he will be sworn in.

This will give the appearance Senate Dems won't just accept anyone with open arms just to get another Dem in a position.

RE: BurrisHow about this? 1. President-Elect Obam...

2009-01-07T12:53:00.000-05:00

RE: Burris

How about this?

1. President-Elect Obama: Seat him. We do not have time for this crap. However, I defer to the Senate on this matter.

2. Harry Reid and other Dem Senators: We will not seat someone appointed by a governor accused of fraud associated with the open seat. This is legal because Mr. Burris does not have the seal of his Sec. of State.

3. Obama team: We seek to appoint Leon Panetta as head of the CIA.

4. Sen. Diane Feinstein (Chair of the committee which would confirm Panetta): Why did I not hear about this before it got to press? Are you trying to undermine me?

5. Sen. Feinstein: I support seating Burris. He was appointed legally. (And I'm willing to make trouble if you don't seat him.)

6. Obama to Reid: We have no choice.

7. Sen. Reid: We'll seat Sen. Burris.

8. Public: Sen. Reid is weak.

9. Fox News: Democrats seat candidate appointed by indicted governor.

10. Obama: Note to self-- tread carefully.

Look at this cute email I just got from John McCai...

2009-01-07T12:52:00.000-05:00

Look at this cute email I just got from John McCain. Didn't someone tell him to cut the "my friends" thing out yet?

My Friend,

In the time since the 2008 presidential campaign ended I have had a chance to reflect on many things. And as I said on election night, I truly cannot adequately express how indebted I am to you, my entire campaign team and my running mate, Governor Sarah Palin.

The road was a difficult one from the outset. Yet, your faith, your support and friendship never wavered. Just as I have proudly served my country for more than half a century I am as committed as ever to helping see our mission through.

So to continue the movement, I have decided to launch a new grassroots organization called Country First.

Today, I'm asking you as a friend and supporter to renew your commitment to our common goals by becoming a Charter Member of Country First with an online contribution.

Country First will allow us to strengthen our Party, better define our Republican ideals and message, recruit and back strong, dedicated candidates and continue our efforts to bring real reform to government by always putting our country and the noble ideals she stands for first.

Together, we can make government more responsive to today's problems and more answerable to the people. That's why I hope you will become a Charter Member of Country First and support our cause by following this link to make a generous contribution of any amount today.

With your help we can work to elect these new leaders to Governorships, Statehouses, the U.S. Senate and U.S. House of Representatives in 2010 and beyond. Once in office they will become fierce advocates for limited government, economic opportunity, personal responsibility and strong national security.

On Election Night last year, I called on all Americans not to despair of our present difficulties but to believe always in the promise and greatness of America, because nothing is inevitable here.

Today, I am asking you to join Country First to continue fighting for the worthy cause of revitalizing both our democracy and our Party.

Our goals will never be realized if your voice falls silent. You are the best hope for our country's success. Please stay in this fight with me; our country needs your service now as much as ever.

I know that together we can make a difference - we already have. Again, I thank you for your unwavering friendship and support.

Sincerely,

John McCain

Good to see a fishy poll knocked for what it was. ...

2009-01-07T12:51:00.000-05:00

Good to see a fishy poll knocked for what it was.

Why is Alaska so difficult to poll? Voter turnout is usually pretty high by the voting eligible population (67.9% in 2008 and 69.1% in 2004.) See McDonald's US Elections Project site for this data.

My theory is that pollsters use mainland polling methods in a state that thumbs their nose at things associated with the mainland. You might have to use some sort of cluster analysis to see which political leaders back whom, and then statistically sample the followers of those leaders.

Well, this is all quite interesting. But you know,...

2009-01-07T12:46:00.000-05:00

Well, this is all quite interesting. But you know, before jumping whole-hog into the 2010 races, it might be interesting to do some reviews of 2008. Specifically, I'd be interested in seeing 1) a review of the performance of various pollsters, as well as 538's pollster ratings; 2) a review of the performance of the 538 regression; and 3) an update of the electoral history charts, which I haven't been able to access for some time.

I love it when DCM channels Linda Richman. I'm get...

2009-01-07T12:38:00.000-05:00

I love it when DCM channels Linda Richman. I'm getting verklempt. Talk amongst yourself. I give you a topic. Does Harry Reid ACTUALLY work for Obama even though he says he does not?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/01/07/dem-aide-obama-wanted-sen_n_155909.html

President-Elect Obama: Seat him. We do not have time for this crap. However, I defer to the Senate on this matter. (Last sentence thrown in to make senators and senate majority leaders feel better about themselves)

explanation for irrational AK support for Palin [&...

2009-01-07T12:28:00.000-05:00

explanation for irrational AK support for Palin [& Stevens & Young et al]

rampant drug abuse [especially Meth & Oxy] = distorted 'reality'

and apparently in AK, Mat-Su is the epicenter of the drug scene as well as the home of their dear ol' 'Sarah, Plain & Stoopid'...

coincidence ??? more likely direct correlation

discuss...

They're both amoral, corrupt pols. That puts them...

2009-01-07T12:18:00.000-05:00

They're both amoral, corrupt pols. That puts them in good standing with Alaskans. I hope for Palin, she is most likely to crash in flames from greed.

Agree Joe, Reid handled this terribly.

2009-01-07T12:17:00.000-05:00

Agree Joe, Reid handled this terribly.

Cugel-Some truisms do suck, like the one about hal...

2009-01-07T12:16:00.000-05:00

Cugel-

Some truisms do suck, like the one about half the people having a below average intelligence.

Harry Reid looks weak in the Senator-Designate Bur...

2009-01-07T12:15:00.000-05:00

Harry Reid looks weak in the Senator-Designate Burris fiasco because he IS weak politically. My read of the situation, for the little it is worth, is that he is being hung out to dry as the fall guy for whatever President-Elect Obama cannot get passed.

Did I want Blago to name someone to the seat? Not really. Is Burris the best candidate for the people of Illinois? I have no idea. I do know that Illinois law puts it in the hands of the acting governor. Unless there is an FBI-tape with Burris offering/accepting a quid quo pro for the seat, most observers saw very little that could prevent his seating.

It is weak for someone in a leadership position to "take a strong stand" and then do the exact thing they said they would not do. A stronger leader would have expressed distaste and talked about attempting to prevent it, but would know where to spend political capital.

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Palin v. Murkowski Cold War Heating Up? Polls Sho...

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Pow! Well done Kos.

I don't think it's fair to knock this second poll ...

@peterkentSo you are saying that Sarah Palin is th...

I don't see it as a 51-point gap, more like half t...

Let's see. Nate posts whorishly and is a doucheba...

On Blago and Burris I am betting that Burris gets ...

I am fairly confident that Palin owns the Republic...

@Joe The Fake Virginian:Unless there is an FBI-tap...

For the record, Alaska has not "always" been polit...

If I understand it correctly, the SoS of Ill. stil...

RE: BurrisHow about this? 1. President-Elect Obam...

Look at this cute email I just got from John McCai...

Good to see a fishy poll knocked for what it was. ...

Well, this is all quite interesting. But you know,...

I love it when DCM channels Linda Richman. I'm get...

explanation for irrational AK support for Palin [&...

They're both amoral, corrupt pols. That puts them...

Agree Joe, Reid handled this terribly.

Cugel-Some truisms do suck, like the one about hal...

Harry Reid looks weak in the Senator-Designate Bur...

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