Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: A Word on Voter Files

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2009-10-09T02:43:31.892-04:00

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2009-09-10T00:55:35.538-04:00

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2009-03-11T05:08:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-11T05:08:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-12T22:12:00.000-05:00

Before there was early voting, we used to send an ...

2008-09-13T17:41:00.000-04:00

Before there was early voting, we used to send an observer to the precinct, to mark down everyone who voted. Midafternoon, we'd take the list to the office, ID it, and call any supporters who hadn't yet voted. You have to have an observer for every precinct. But people like doing it, especially in their own precinct--it's a chance to feel useful while hanging out with the neighbors.

the 6:35pm commenter's question highlighted some c...

2008-06-24T18:08:00.000-04:00

the 6:35pm commenter's question highlighted some confusion caused by no delineating the differences in "voter files" being discussed.

It all begins with the raw voter file that can be purchased (varying cost but fairly nominal in most cases) from state or local governments. This is no more or less information than whatever was provided by the voter when they registered (name, address, phone, email if they chose), their party registration (where applicable) and their vote history.

That provides the foundation for the voter database that campaigns use for their voter contact purposes and is almost always matched up against the most recent National Change of Address file (and others if the campaign chooses) to correct addresses, phone numbers, etc.

Once you buy a voter file it is yours, you don't have to submit the additional information you collect on voters and would be insane to do so.

The advantages that down ticket campaigns can gain from using strong voter lists are only available if 1) the campaign in possession of that database chooses to share it and/or 2) a para-campaign system is in place to provide access to candidates of a particular party.

Of course with few exceptions campaigns are going to share their voter list provided down ticket candidates work with them on what they will be talking to voters about and more importantly track the information they gather for upload back into the database.

#2 is where Republicans have dominated Democrats the last several years. For over 7 years the GOP has invested a significant amount of resources into a central voter list that, through each Republican state party, can be accessed by every Republican candidate who, in turn (and in theory), updates the central database with the information they gather.

A large part of this advantage was created by the fact that the development of the RNCs voter database interface coincided with the dominance of President Bush and his strategic team within Republican campaign strategy circles. The synergy created allowed for a centralized control of the development and expansion of Votervault as the RNC worked directly with state parties to collect updated voter files at regular intervals and append them with the information that had been collected through the years.

This process provided even more value when microtargeting was added into the mix - through which consumer marketing data on voters was matched to the database allowing the development of complex voter behavior modeling allowing campaigns to identify their target demographics and develop messaging with a much greater degree of precision.

All of that said any voter database is only as good as the information that is added to it. A month or two ago there was a story talking about the fact that the DNC regularly lost massive amounts of data collected in a given campaign cycle.

For some reason this is a process the DNC has not been able to get a handle on - the Obama campaign is certainly doing a fantastic job beefing up their voter database but it won't do anyone very much good after this election if a reliable platform does not exist to give future candidates the ability to access and freshen up that information.

Anon@16:31 It may interest you to know that Obama...

2008-06-24T00:26:00.000-04:00

Anon@16:31

It may interest you to know that Obama didn't pass out lawn signs for the primary. When you saw one it was bought by local volunteers or the person who displayed it. Hence the Paultards big edge in signage.

re: Yard SignsI love counting yard signs...makes m...

2008-06-23T16:31:00.000-04:00

re: Yard Signs

I love counting yard signs...makes me feel like a pollster. However, much driving around Hew Hampshire in January revealed flaws in this strategy: nearly half of the signs were for Ron Paul, and a McCain sign was rare indeed. Obama and Clinton seemed equally represented. so at least Dems appear to post signs in proportion to their actual voting patterns.

And thanks for the post. Excellent info much appreciated.

For Sean, this was a good post. It was still ridd...

2008-06-23T16:23:00.000-04:00

For Sean, this was a good post. It was still riddled with errors, though the rant level has been dialed down.

I'm still in favor of moving Sean off this blog completely.

I agree with first commenter. I work for Obama in...

2008-06-23T15:35:00.000-04:00

I agree with first commenter. I work for Obama in Pa and our rolls are quite good. We know who super voters are, the age, who in the household is registered. And we improved them. As we canvassed for the primary we weeded the deceased, moved etc... McCain will find the local GOP a demoralized shell for the fall in the ring with a massive and I mean massive grassroots organization. Our county overperformed the predictions by 23 points. Increased turnout by seventy pct.

Interesting responses.I wouldn't say I "called out...

2008-06-23T14:10:00.000-04:00

Interesting responses.

I wouldn't say I "called out" the blog for lack of facts, just noted that some states don't report the date the absentee ballot is returned. Some do, some don't. The states change this all the time--it's one of the frustrations of federalism.

Juris, the UOCAVA ballots are a relatively small percentage of the total, although we all do remember Florida. The main issue with UOCAVA voters is making sure their voting rights retained.

I knocked on 3000 Doors for Tester in Montana in '...

2008-06-23T13:29:00.000-04:00

I knocked on 3000 Doors for Tester in Montana in '06. Now, since Baucus is a shoo-in and has a huge war chest, MT Dems get another summer canvass, which I am also working on. The MT voter file is solid.

Hey Sean,Read your site daily and love it. Nothing...

2008-06-23T12:49:00.000-04:00

Hey Sean,

Read your site daily and love it. Nothing political to comment on, just that while Pietrangelo was a good pick, I love the Canucks taking Hodgson at 10th.

Any insight on which team is the early favorite on drafting John Tavares next june? my bet is on the leafs.

Re: yard signsHere in Oregon, there is a well-know...

2008-06-23T08:01:00.000-04:00

Re: yard signs

Here in Oregon, there is a well-known stretch of I-5 between Portland and Salem that is "astroturfed" by a well-heeled Repub operative (this has been written up in local paper The Oregonian) who pays farmers to post enormous pro-Republican yard signs in their fields. I agree this is a waste of resources and widely mocked.

However, I'm driving around with a few yard signs for OR-SEN candidate Jeff Merkeley in the back of my car. Now and then, when I see a yard sign for Obama and I have the time and inclination, I get out, knock on the door, tell them I'm their neighbor/work around the corner/as appropriate and ask if they would also consider supporting Jeff Merkeley for Senate, so that once President Obama is in there he will have a good working majority and can get things done. I don't think this is any waste of time. I think I have gotten a few people to consider that it's about more than just sending in your vote for Barack in October. It's unscientific perhaps, but so was your comment that this is a waste of time. It would be nice if you would provide some evidence for your view, or maybe clarify it. Thanks.

Great entry!Here have been my experiences with cam...

2008-06-23T02:38:00.000-04:00

Great entry!

Here have been my experiences with campaigning for Obama. WRT phonebanking, VA definitely had the best list. In most states, if I called 20 numbers, I would say on average about 15 of them would be wrong numbers. But in VA, out of 20 calls about 12-15 would be correct.

Some of the states I called were WI, ME, TX, and LA.

Now, in actual canvassing I had a very different experience. Phonebanking was very challenging in TX, but the actual canvassing was completely different. I'm not sure if that's because I canvassed some time after I phonebanked or what, but the lists we received were incredibly accurate.

When I recently canvassed in MO, the lists were far less accurate. From what I understand, this was because MO was a Super Tuesday state and not as much door to door work was done then. But in the lead up to the general, the emphasis is on voter registration. So we hit the pavement in the neighborhoods that typically had the lowest voter turnout rates (but were likely fertile territory for Obama). So while we had something to go off of, maybe only 35% of it was accurate.

In IN, I know the canvassing info was pretty accurate--especially around Indianapolis.

And one comment about WI. Someone mentioned that there wasn't much targeting in the canvass efforts, but I don't think that was accidental. WI is a unique state (I lived there for quite awhile) in that even in the rural areas, there are some progressive elements one can tap into. A candidate with possible cross-over appeal should ideally cast a very large net in WI because it can pull in unexpected voters in very conservative, rural areas. This is especially true in the northern part of the state where you have many Native nations located. Previous organizing had banded sportshunters and fishermen, Native nations, local towns, and environmentalists in some very effective anti-mining efforts. Those coalitions paid off big time for Obama there. But you would literally have to canvass the entire state to capitalize on that.

:)

Yard signs do matter...when you consider the effec...

2008-06-22T20:34:00.000-04:00

Yard signs do matter...when you consider the effect of "who" is placing the yards signs.

Many voters will look to their neighbors to see who they are supporting. If their entire block has Obama signs on them, unless they are a hardcore Republican, this type of information will influence a voters decision.

Unless of course all your neighbors think your a dick...in which case, put up Republican signs please...

To Professor Gronke:Thanks for calling out Sean on...

2008-06-22T19:36:00.000-04:00

To Professor Gronke:

Thanks for calling out Sean on his (once again) lack of facts and his mistakes.

This blog appears really good in terms of data, but is riddled with errors in fact and possibly data as well.

Umm, wouldn't a good voter list also be available ...

2008-06-22T19:35:00.000-04:00

Umm, wouldn't a good voter list also be available to Republicans? How does this help Dems? Or can both parties just use the data now that Dems are more competitive?

North Carolina has excellent voter list, identifie...

2008-06-22T17:36:00.000-04:00

North Carolina has excellent voter list, identified by party (Dem, Rep, or Unaffiliated), by all recent votes, and by address. While it takes cross referencing to the city directories to get phone numbers it still works well. And there is early voting for three week--enough time to check l on who has voted early. Out on the limb, maybe, but I am still willing to predict an Obama victory in NC. All it would take is an African American turnout equal to the white turnout--and that's almost what we got in the primaries--first time ever.

To Paul Gronke:There's a related issue, and that's...

2008-06-22T14:51:00.000-04:00

To Paul Gronke:

There's a related issue, and that's the so-called "overseas ballots," which includes primarily those in miliary service abroad, I believe.

You will certainly recall that issue from the 2000 Florida recounting. As it turned out many of those ballots were also missing dates, but the GOP bullied the FL Sec of State (or the county election boards) into ignoring that issue.

In your project, are you going to be able to deal with this issue as well as the absentee ballot issue more generally?

Thanks.

Thank you for distracting me from my critical data...

2008-06-22T14:49:00.000-04:00

Thank you for distracting me from my critical data entry work here in the cuyahoga county obama office with you excellent post.

Having worked in the Indiana primary, we spent ton...

2008-06-22T14:45:00.000-04:00

Having worked in the Indiana primary, we spent tons of resources on voter information building. As Sean mentioned, this is a huge benefit of a 50-state primary. Indiana, being a republican win state practically forever, was lacking much of this voter building in previous elections. I think all of the time focused there in the primary will have (and is having) a significant effect in moving the democratic base to the polls on election day and bringing IN into the win column for the Dems for the first time in forever.

I am from North Dakota. A state which is looking ...

2008-06-22T14:40:00.000-04:00

I am from North Dakota. A state which is looking to maybe have significance (at least more than usual) in this election. We are the only state WITHOUT voter registration. What does this mean for strategy in this race? I imagine they have to play a different game in this state?

very interesting post, thanks.

2008-06-22T13:16:00.000-04:00

very interesting post, thanks.