Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Raising Kaine?

酒店經紀人, 菲梵酒店經紀, 酒店經紀, 禮服酒店上班, 酒店小姐兼職, 便服酒店經紀, ...

2009-10-08T07:12:28.555-04:00

酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店經紀,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店工作,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
菲
梵,

艾葳酒店經紀公司提供專業的酒店經紀, 酒店上班小姐,八大行業,酒店兼職,傳播妹,或者想要到打工兼差、...

2009-09-11T02:57:07.073-04:00

艾葳酒店經紀公司提供專業的酒店經紀, 酒店上班小姐,八大行業,酒店兼職,傳播妹,或者想要到打工兼差、打工,兼差,或者八大行業,酒店兼職,想去酒店上班, 日式酒店,制服酒店,ktv酒店,禮服店,整天穿得水水漂漂的,還是想去制服店當上班小姐,水水們如果想要擁有打工工作、晚上兼差工作、兼差打工、假日兼職、兼職工作、酒店兼差、兼差、打工兼差、日領工作、晚上兼差工作、酒店工作、酒店上班、酒店打工、兼職、兼差、兼差工作、酒店上班等,想了解酒店相關工作和特種行業內容,想兼職工作日領、假日兼職、兼差打工、或晚班兼職想擁有快速賺錢又有保障的工作嗎???又可以現領請找專業又有保障的艾葳酒店經紀公司!

艾葳酒店經紀是合法的公司工作環境高雅時尚，無業績壓力，無脫秀無喝酒壓力，高層次會員制客源，工作輕鬆，可日領、現領。
一般的酒店經紀只會在水水們第一次上班和領薪水時出現而已，對水水們的上班安全一點保障都沒有！艾葳酒店經紀公司的水水們上班時全程媽咪作陪，不需擔心！只提供最優質的酒店上班,酒店上班,酒店打工環境、上班條件給水水們。心動嗎!? 趕快來填寫你的酒店上班履歷表

水水們妳有缺現領、有兼職、缺錢卡奴的煩腦嗎?想到日本留學缺錢嗎?妳是傳播妹??想要擁有高時薪又輕鬆的夜間兼職工作,打工機會和,假日打工,假日兼職賺錢的機會嗎??想實現夢想卻又缺錢沒錢嗎!??
艾葳酒店台北酒店經紀招兵買馬!!徵專業的酒店打工,想要去酒店的水水,想要短期日領,酒店日領,禮服酒店,制服店,酒店經紀,ktv酒店,便服店,酒店工作,禮服店,酒店小姐,酒店經紀人,
等相關服務幫您快速的實現您的夢想~!!

專業合法驅除白蟻除白蟻白蟻防治跳蚤除跳蚤跳蚤防治蛀蟲除蛀蟲蛀蟲防治白蟻除白蟻 ...

2009-03-22T08:25:00.000-04:00

專業合法驅除白蟻除白蟻白蟻防治跳蚤除跳蚤跳蚤防治蛀蟲除蛀蟲蛀蟲防治白蟻除白蟻白蟻防治跳蚤除跳蚤跳蚤防治蛀蟲除蛀蟲蛀蟲防治除蟲除蟲

^^ nice blog!! ^@^徵信, 徵信, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社...

2009-03-11T22:09:00.001-04:00

^^ nice blog!! thanks a lot! ^^徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵信...

2009-03-11T22:09:00.000-04:00

情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,...

2009-02-14T02:23:00.000-05:00

I've been saying for about 6 weeks now that Kaine ...

2008-07-24T01:01:00.000-04:00

I've been saying for about 6 weeks now that Kaine will be Obama's VP.

People may downplay the advantage Kaine will bring to Obama in VA, but note that VA is about the "swingy-est" state of all this fall, and carries a substantial 13 EV. If Kaine helps even a little, VA swings blue for the first time in a generation and Obama's prospects for winning look a lot better.

Also, he was a huge Obama supporter from the very beginning and seems to wholeheartedly support Obama's change message. He is also a spanish-speaking Catholic, Harvard-educated Lawyer who grew up in his father's metalworking buisness outside of Kansas City. He can help Obama win the center, and Catholics, and is a good no-drama 2nd in command guy that will help carry Obama's message of a new post-partisian, religion-friendly, social-policy oriented face of the democratic party, that can build pragmatic majorities in order to face our major collective problems.

Obama will not pick a drama king/queen as his VP, nor will he pick someone with whom he disagrees on a basic level.

He will pick Tim Kaine. It's been obvious to me for weeks now.

Finally, Bolling becoming Governor is probably the...

2008-07-23T20:37:00.000-04:00

Finally, Bolling becoming Governor is probably the best thing that could happen to Virginia Democrats. The Republicans have settled on McDonnell. But if Bolling is the sitting Governor, you're guaranteed a divisive primary for a full-term...and should Bolling end up winning, there's no way he gets elected against either of the two candidates set to run. He's too right-wing. McDonnell would have a chance though...

Also on the "his AG did defend it," that's a bunch...

2008-07-23T20:33:00.000-04:00

Also on the "his AG did defend it," that's a bunch of bullshit. Attorney General is an elected position in Virginia, as it is in most states. The Attorney General of Virginia is a Republican who Kaine opposed in the 2005 elections, and not a Kaine ally.

Correction: Kaine is up for re-election in 2009, n...

2008-07-23T20:31:00.000-04:00

Correction: Kaine is up for re-election in 2009, not 2010. Virginia has off-year elections for Governor. He could run again in 2013 if he wanted to.

This isn't really all that surprising, as Kaine just had a rocky special session over transportation funding. This is aimed at boosting Kaine's popularity, and aiding Democratic candidates for State House/Senate in the 2009 elections, along with whomever wins the Democratic Nomination (there are two good candidates).

Kaine would be a decent pick for Obama. He's an experienced executive--he's been Governor, Lt. Gov. (not an unsubstantial post in VA), and Mayor of Richmond. Lots of executive experience there. He's a Catholic, and on good terms with the Church. Yes, he's pro-life, as he says he has religious objections to it, but he's not for bans. He wants to reduce the number of abortions--the Jim Wallis plan--so he's probably tolerable to NARAL/Emily's List. He'd be a decent pick. That said, I doubt he's the running mate. I bet Obama goes with Bayh.

My take over at RaisingKaine:Sebelius for VPKaine ...

2008-07-23T18:39:00.000-04:00

My take over at RaisingKaine:
Sebelius for VP

Kaine has talked out both sides of his mouth on climate change and on mountaintop removal. He also supported the building of a new coal-fired power plant in VA. This hurt Kaine among the Democratic community in VA and also among the progressive netroots.

He should, under no circumstances, be Barack Obama's nominee.

peace,
faithfull

No Kaine as VP! Why? Simply because if he leaves...

2008-07-23T17:48:00.000-04:00

No Kaine as VP! Why? Simply because if he leaves, the lt. governor, Bolling, a right-wing Republican, becomes governor. There is no way Tim Kaine allows that to happen to a state that is turning more blue every day. Thank goodness.

Mithras, you clearly don't know a lot about Virgin...

2008-07-23T17:00:00.000-04:00

Mithras, you clearly don't know a lot about Virginia politics for someone speaking so authoritatively. The Virginia Attorney General is a Republican, and is an elected official, not a political appointee. Kaine got stuck with McDonnell, who beat the Democratic nominee in a race so close it went to a recount. The Lt. Governor also is a Republican. Also, Kaine is personally anti-abortion, but he does support access to legal abortions. Indeed, he was attacked by the NRO on the abortion issue during the gubbentatorial campaign.

If Webb does end up pursuing the VP role, I assume Kaine would appoint himself to the remainder of Webb's term. True, we would have a Republican governor for the remainder of Kaine's term, but it's *only* one year until the next gubenatorial election. Plus, there's the added benefit of the incumbent being held responsible for the traffic gridlock. Works for me.

no sane feminist is going to drop Obama because of...

2008-07-23T16:57:00.000-04:00

no sane feminist is going to drop Obama because of a pro-life VP.

but what about the, er, less-sane feminists? It's not so much that they make up a huge proportion of the electorate, but I doubt Obama wants to be "swift-boated" from the left.

I'm still hoping for Mark Warner. I think he'd giv...

2008-07-23T16:01:00.000-04:00

I'm still hoping for Mark Warner. I think he'd give Obama a huge chance at winning VA and I think Obama wins the election if he wins VA.

I know Warner is up big in his senate race - but I think the Dems could still win that race without him - especially with Warner as VP - as that would bring out a lot of DEMS voting down the ticket.

Except for the fluke of Agnew. There hasn't been a...

2008-07-23T15:56:00.000-04:00

Except for the fluke of Agnew. There hasn't been a winning candidate, who didn't win his state plus the state of his VP.

So if Obama is going to win isn't it most likely that the VP is going to be from a state that is currently blue?

If Kaine on doesn't guarantee VA is blue, then he probably isn't the right choice. I'd like to see odds that Obama wins without winning VA.

Or here is a different kind of analysis, building on Nearest neighbor/ State Similarity. I'd previously posted there that you could treat US as a unit and see what states would be the US's nearest neighbors. Here is a different spin. Take the currently blue states as a unit. What States are the nearest neighbors to the current Obama likely win states considered as an aggrgated unit?

On a side note, I'm pretty sure Eric Holder is the...

2008-07-23T12:32:00.000-04:00

On a side note, I'm pretty sure Eric Holder is the front runner for AG (or at least number 2.)

Eh, I doubt Kaine will help much in VA or Missouri...

2008-07-23T11:57:00.000-04:00

Eh, I doubt Kaine will help much in VA or Missouri. The only candidate that will help in any particular state is Bayh in Indiana. He's popular, he was a popular governor, and his family is very popular there. I read an article that Hoosiers have a bit of an inferiority complex and it can't hurt that it might be a sense of pride to send a born and bread Indianan to the White House.

One more thing that I forgot to mention that would...

2008-07-23T11:53:00.000-04:00

One more thing that I forgot to mention that would make Kaine interesting, geographically speaking, is that he's from Missouri, and went to Undergrad in Missouri.

So if he were the VP he could potentially help out in two states that are on the fence.

FWIW, I think this ad is Kaine's introductory vide...

2008-07-23T11:48:00.000-04:00

FWIW, I think this ad is Kaine's introductory video for his speech the state Democratic convention (or nearly the same; I remember that one as having more "see how good I look next to Barack Obama" shots.) That may explain its heavy focus on how great Democrats are doing in Virginia, but it doesn't do any more to explain the purpose of running it as a web ad.

Kaine, whose term as VA governor expires in Januar...

2008-07-23T11:40:00.000-04:00

Kaine, whose term as VA governor expires in January 2010, needn't publicly maneuver to be considered by Obama for VP. They already have a long-standing relationship. This promotional blitz is more likely about state politics.

As other commenters have noted, Kaine's transportation package was stymied by Republicans in the state legislature. The issue will be joined again when the legislature meets in January, and, assuming the GOP continues to stonewall, transportation will be a big issue in the elections for governor and state House of Delegates in November 2009. The GOP currently has a 55-45 majority in the House, and could lose control if traffic-clogged Northern VA and Hampton Roads (Norfolk area) swing to the Dems.

I too am curious Nate: which Edwards gossip are yo...

2008-07-23T10:46:00.000-04:00

I too am curious Nate: which Edwards gossip are you referring to? Are you referring to the drudge report that he's on the VP short list? Or that he's having an affair with the mother of his illicit child?

Nate: "But if Obama picks Kaine to be his VP, it s...

2008-07-23T10:45:00.000-04:00

Nate: "But if Obama picks Kaine to be his VP, it should be for reasons other than his ability to carry Virginia."

Besides, Mark Warner is already performing the function of a Virginia running mate. He is popular and has build a great voter file.
There is nothing to be gained electorally by selecting a Virginian for Vice President.
There are other reasons to select Tim Kaine though. His personality is great: team player, low key, no drama. Kaine might have appeal to Catholic voters and he is competent.

I've been pretty involved in VA democratic politic...

2008-07-23T10:26:00.000-04:00

I've been pretty involved in VA democratic politics for several years and everything that I've heard about Kaine is that he doesn't have aspirations for a higher office.

Personally I like the guy and have met him several times, that said he hasn't been able to accomplish his #1 objective and that's passing a comprehensive transportation and transit package for the Commonwealth. He was just stymied by the Republican controlled House of Delegates in a special session last month which was the result of the previous transportation legislation being overturned in the Virginia Supreme Court.

I don't think that Kaine would necessarily help Obama in VA nor do I think Webb would, neither are as popular in the state of Virginia as they seem to be among analysts from out of state. Mark Warner is extremely popular and I think he's Obama's best shot at winning Virginia because if Obama wins there it will, I believe, be the result of Mark Warner's coat tails not the other way around because he's so insanely popular.

Jim Webb would be a great VP except there is no democrat who could realistically replace him (not to mention that Jim Webb won in large part because George Allen absolutely imploded). Tim Kaine would be succeeded by a Republican if he were to take a Vice Presidential slot.

While many democrats are excited about the prospect of Virginia going blue this election (as I am). There needs to be a realization that Virginia Democrats tend to be more centrist and even conservative on many issues and are not, I repeat not very liberal at all. Indeed, Warner, Kaine and Webb are all more moderate Democrats who were either Fiscally moderate like Warner or more Socially moderate like Kaine.

This doesn't mean that all is lost, but as far as the Vice Presidential slot is concerned I think it's best to look towards the plains states (Kathleen Sibelius) or the Southwest (Bill Richardson).
Obama may well win Virginia yet after all we were the first state to elect an African American Governor, Doug Wilder, and I sincerely hope he does. But if Obama wins Virginia then I think he will have defeated McCain by a substantially larger margin than have occurred in the 2000 or '04 elections.

You didn't post a link--what is Drudge saying abou...

2008-07-23T09:55:00.000-04:00

You didn't post a link--what is Drudge saying about Edwards? That he's going to be the VP pick or that there's some reason he won't get the AG position?