Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: The Mountain West: America's New Swing Region

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2009-10-02T03:58:40.172-04:00

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2009-04-16T03:08:00.000-04:00

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2009-03-12T22:32:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-12T22:32:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-11T09:38:00.000-05:00

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Moscow is the butt of many Commie jokes elsewhere ...

2008-12-12T19:11:00.000-05:00

Moscow is the butt of many Commie jokes elsewhere in Idaho. But much of the [northern] Idaho panhandle is historically non-Mormon, and working-class Democratic, because of all the now-mostly-spent mines outside Coeur d'Alene.

Brian: Latah County, Idaho, is mostly Moscow, Ida...

2008-12-12T18:48:00.000-05:00

Brian: Latah County, Idaho, is mostly Moscow, Idaho, a college town. Tons of likely dem voters, tons of volunteers. Done deal.

pizzuti is right. This blog post lost me when it c...

2008-12-12T14:18:00.000-05:00

pizzuti is right. This blog post lost me when it claimed the mountain west was "mostly rural." The populations of these states are centered *heavily* in urban areas such as Salt Lake City, Boise, Las Vegas and Phoenix.

Another commenter also made a great point about growth: we've seen huge population growth out here, especially people fleeing California.

Finally, this article makes a point about Obama flipping Latah and Teton counties in Idaho. Latah was interesting but Teton flipped because of demographics, not Obama. Teton's been built up these last few years with vacation homes for wealthy folks: the same crowd as in Jackson Hole and in the Sun Valley / Stanley area, which are both (I believe) Democratic islands in these two very red states.

This is a great analysis, but I have something to ...

2008-12-11T21:47:00.000-05:00

This is a great analysis, but I have something to add. The Obama campaign knew early on that we were going to win California in November, and also knew that there were enormous numbers of enthusiastic Obama supporters in the most populous state. All committed Obama supporters in California were assigned to assist the campaign in battleground states, especially Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico, but others as well. A few statistics illustrate how massive that effort was. California volunteers made over 10 million calls to battleground states in the final phase of the campaign, including 5.6 million calls in the last four days. 18,000 California volunteers worked on election day, and made over 2 million calls that day. 620 California volunteers did internships in 10 battleground states for as long as 5 weeks each. Weekend volunteer travelers made over 13,000 trips to Nevada and Colorado. This effort entirely freed the volunteers living in those states from having to make phone calls, and put them on the streets where they could be most effective. This entire project was completed with very few paid staff - 12 in all of California at the end, while typical battleground states had 300 - 400 paid staffers on duty. Longtime campaign pros saw the California volunteer effort for Obama as unprecedented in the history of electoral politics, and rightly so.

- Jim Heaphy

Mule RiderWE are the leathernecks who risked it al...

2008-12-11T19:44:00.000-05:00

Mule Rider

WE are the leathernecks who risked it all in Europe and the Pacific in WWII to make sure the Axis Powers didn't rule the world with tyranny.

Really? Man, you type really well for a 80-year-old.

Patriotism is neither liberal nor conservative, it's American. Right now, Americans want a liberal minority community organizer with a funny name from Chicago to lead us in a new direction.

Want to criticize him? Fine, enjoy those First Amendment rights that the Fox News crowd didn't like to see exercised when their team was in power. But don't pretend that this is your country any more than it is ours.

And, as a side note, my grandad served in WWII as well, so go fuck right off with that "more patriotic than thou" bullshit.

Myra: "I don't understand how it can be said that...

2008-12-11T18:04:00.000-05:00

Myra: "I don't understand how it can be said that he did almost as well as Bush in the region when he lost Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico by wide margins so I must not be understanding what the statement is referring to."
McCain got the same NUMBER of votes as Bush, but unfortunately for him, Obama got LOTS MORE than Kerry, so McCain's percentage, out of the larger new total, went way down.

Excellent post Sean, and good analysis by Ickey an...

2008-12-11T16:35:00.000-05:00

Excellent post Sean, and good analysis by Ickey and others. The likely 2010 census outcomes ARE somewhat depressing though. (disclaimer, I live in Las Vegas and am insanely happy that NV and NM outperformed every other state for Obama!). Of course, those 4-8 electoral votes likely to be lost by dems can be made up by switching AZ's 10 (or more) in 2012. The demographics seem to make that very doable. As was rightly pointed out Montana CAN also be won, as the margin there was only about 20,000 for Bush (same as in NV in 2004). Obama made the correct calculation by NOT pushing harder there this time though, as NM, CO, and NV were much more important. It's important to note that the common wisdom that 18-29 and Latino turnout gains helped dems this time is just wrong. Youth turnout nationally was up marginally, at best, and Latino turnout was as bad as usual. What helped, tremendously, was the MARGINS in those two groups, about 30% in both, a HUGE improvement from 2004. The youth margin alone counted for about 4% of the 7% popular vote win. Thus there are still gains to be made with those groups.

I'm no statistician, so maybe I'm missing somethin...

2008-12-11T14:55:00.000-05:00

I'm no statistician, so maybe I'm missing something here but I don't understand the statement "John McCain essentially repeated the Bush vote in the Mountain West. Overall, McCain won 99.14% of Bush's total, dropping less than one percent." I don't understand how it can be said that he did almost as well as Bush in the region when he lost Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico by wide margins so I must not be understanding what the statement is referring to. Somebody please help me out here and please be kind to your "statisticsologically challenged" fellow reader of 538.com.:)

MT Conservative: Your figures are still ignoring...

2008-12-11T12:40:00.000-05:00

MT Conservative:
Your figures are still ignoring the Ron Paul vote, which when added to the GOP total makes the McCain MoV about 5%. Assume no Paul and no Nader on the ballot in 2012. Further, assume a more agreeable GOP nominee like Romney. Obama realistically starts out as about a 4.5% underdog. Also, Bush will be a forgotten memory 4 yrs from now, minimising the protest vote. (Dem generic ballot already fading according to Rasmussen repeated here)
I'm not saying it's impossible to swing MT, just saying it would be a major effort and for what? 3 EVs? Not really worth it, unless you're going for 400+ EVs. If Barack absolutely wants the landlside on his record and if his numbers look good (above 60%) in 2012, then he may spend the cash. If not, I don't expect a real push in MT. But it could always be another feint move to draw GOP cash into a "safe" state. AZ is much more swingable, IMHO.
-Jeff

The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain di...

2008-12-11T12:28:00.000-05:00

The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain did state-by-state, but that we shouldn't have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.

The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote -- that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided "battleground" states. In 2004 two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election.

Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.

The National Popular Vote bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes-- 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.

See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com

And they're not going to do that with a hopeless w...

2008-12-11T09:31:00.000-05:00

And they're not going to do that with a hopeless warmed over stew of the same cultural war CRAP they've been spewing out to lure White Crackers like Mule-Rider all these years.

And that's why I say with all my heart and soul, fuck you Cugel!

You have no idea who I am or what I'm about, you racist, pathetic lowlife.

Everything I stand for, and what my family stands for, our values, are what makes this country great.

WE are the leathernecks who risked it all in Europe and the Pacific in WWII to make sure the Axis Powers didn't rule the world with tyranny.

WE are the hardworking ones who lay it on the line day in and day out, sometimes for little or no pay, and volunteer time and money, blood and sweat to help those in need, be they black, white, brown, etc.

I could go on, but you wouldn't get it you measly maggot! I'm fucking fed up with your bullshit.

You are the biggest hate-monger on this site...and it's not even close!! And you have the fucking temerity to call me a "white cracker" and even remotely insinuate I'm something bad for this country.

Go fuck yourself.

William,New Orleans IS liberal but didn't comprise...

2008-12-11T03:45:00.000-05:00

William,

New Orleans IS liberal but didn't comprise nearly enough of the population to turn LA blue BEFORE Katrina. Now, with so many of the poorer, more reliably Democratic voters gone, probably forever, LA is even LESS liberal than before.

Why doesn't Lousiana go for Obama? I mean New Orel...

2008-12-11T01:46:00.000-05:00

Why doesn't Lousiana go for Obama?
I mean New Oreleans should be quite liberal?
Still bragging about the Civil Rights Act under Lyndon B Johnson down there?

"They went into an election begging the American p...

2008-12-11T00:12:00.000-05:00

"They went into an election begging the American public to listen to them, but refused to pay any attention to what the American public was saying in response. . . .

Sadly, I don't see the GOP becoming any more receptive. They're dominated by Talk Radio, which gives them talking points but no logic. . . ."

This is completely correct Stattler. What happens is simply that Republicans have wrapped themselves in the flag and in religious "righteousness" and anybody who doesn't agree with them is "un-American" "traitor" "terrorist!" "baby-killer."

You heard right-wingers scream all these things at Palin rallies during the latter stages of the campaign.

You don't have to listen when GOD's on your side, when you're marching in the battalions of GOD's ARMY!

Instead you accuse your opponents of cheating! My father who is a classic ditto-head told me he was profoundly depressed because Democrats were stealing the election with the help of ACORN. He really believed this insanity.

I tried to explain to him that Mickey Mouse didn't have a photo ID and thus wouldn't be voting, but it was like talking to someone who doesn't speak English. He'd been programmed.

It's going to take a few more elections before the right wingers begin to GET that the rest of America doesn't care about what they think. This will force them to conclude that we've all be programmed by "the librul media."

We only lost Montana by 2.26%. If Obama shows lea...

2008-12-10T23:58:00.000-05:00

We only lost Montana by 2.26%. If Obama shows leadership and the rural voters figure out that God and Guns are still there, we will be able to tip the state.

Statler, along with everything else she was wrong ...

2008-12-10T23:10:00.000-05:00

Statler, along with everything else she was wrong about, your convenience store lady was wrong about McCain being the same age as the pope. The pope is more than 9 years older than McCain.

wv: submetic = not quite nauseating

When I lived in Mesa, AZ about 10 years ago, the a...

2008-12-10T22:46:00.000-05:00

When I lived in Mesa, AZ about 10 years ago, the area was growing insanely fast, not just from people from CA., but midwesterners as well, MO and IL among others.