Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Wrapping Up the Conventions – What Did We Learn?

^^ very nice 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵...

2009-03-12T01:30:00.001-04:00

^^ nice blog!! ^@^徵信, 徵信網, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵...

2009-03-12T01:30:00.000-04:00

徵信社, 感情挽回, 挽回感情, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 捉姦, 徵信公司, ...

2009-02-09T01:01:00.000-05:00

Uh oh, kids... this looks like trouble.Note espe...

2008-09-07T14:14:00.000-04:00

Uh oh, kids... this looks like trouble.

Note especially how these small-town working-class women respond to the cracks about community organizers.

We TOLd you guys this was going to be costly, but you just wouldn't listen...

MidpointMan:Don't you realize that when you post l...

2008-09-06T18:42:00.000-04:00

MidpointMan:

Don't you realize that when you post lies that are easily figured out you reveal yourself as a lying jackass, and stupid one at that? This is a site where people actually do research. We check out factual claims. Your contention about McCain being in the lead prior to the conventions is like finding one blue stone in a load of white stones and claiming the load was mostly blue.

There is a lot more but you know the lies you have told and other people are unlikely to remember your posts.

Reminds me of the fourth quarter of an NCAA hoops ...

2008-09-06T16:46:00.000-04:00

Reminds me of the fourth quarter of an NCAA hoops final where the two sides have essentially traded baskets for most of the game, with Team Obama generally holding a steady game-long lead of 3 to 6 points AND possesion of the ball.

Suddenly, off the bench comes a little known sleeper whom the GOP has just recruited from Alaska, of all places. Can she make a couple key steals in the final minutes?

Perhaps Coach Rove has figured out that at least three of the swing states can be snowmobile states at times, and that most of the swing states also have tons of working moms.

one demographic that seems to me to be also severe...

2008-09-06T16:31:00.000-04:00

one demographic that seems to me to be also severely affected by the Palin pick is hispanics. If MCcain had a very slim chance before with Palin he has even less now. And don't a lot of western states have big hispanic populations? And isn't he under performing Bush with this demographic? One more thing to consider.

@mpmactually, Obama was generally leading by betwe...

2008-09-06T16:07:00.000-04:00

@mpm

actually, Obama was generally leading by between 1 and 2 points throughout August. Biden gave him a negative bounce of ~-2.

It's very risky to assume that the conventions exactly balance out. I personally think that Obama will have a lead of somewhere in the 1-3 point range a week from today.

dwbh -Obama was losing in both polls before the co...

2008-09-06T16:03:00.000-04:00

dwbh -

Obama was losing in both polls before the conventions.

I think you are playing wishful thinker.

If both conventions cancel each other out, then McCain would be winning.

Nice try.

inkstain wrote:Why must we assume that every elect...

2008-09-06T16:01:00.000-04:00

inkstain wrote:
Why must we assume that every election for the rest of time will come down to a single, close swing state?

I'm wondering why we assume this election is anything like 2004.
Everything went south for the Republicans in 2005. Their credibility with the public was dramatically eroded. The majority of the public thinks that invasion of Iraq was a mistake.
The question is not, as the GOP frames it, "Can we win in Iraq?". It is "Should we have invaded in the first place?". Winning a mistake is nice, but not enough to make Iraq seem like it was a good idea.
Most things that are important in an election have changed since 2004, and not in the Republican's favour.

Bloomberg is awful.

2008-09-06T15:55:00.000-04:00

Bloomberg is awful.

Subterranean,Just curious and making sure I'm inte...

2008-09-06T15:54:00.000-04:00

Subterranean,

Just curious and making sure I'm interpreting your comment. Not trying to pick a debate with you.

Are you saying that an Obama election would be bad? And that a McCain election would be horribly worse?

Just trying to ascertain what you are saying with your "lose/self-destruct" assertion.

IMO this is a lose(Obama)/self-destruct(McCain) el...

2008-09-06T15:51:00.000-04:00

IMO this is a lose(Obama)/self-destruct(McCain) election. Until Michael Bloomberg is on the slate, there are no wins.

lat wrote:Next thing you will tell me is that you ...

2008-09-06T15:50:00.000-04:00

lat wrote:

Next thing you will tell me is that you know all about La Violencia and El desmonte in Colombia.

La Violencia, yes. El Desmonte, no.

Colombia is another tragic case where we are using them as a military base and couldn't care less about democracy - much like Honduras.

Anyone that says the policy of the U.S. government is to promote democracy is ignorant and deluded. We support democracy when it shows potential to get us what we want. If it doesn't we turn a blind eye to authoritarians.

How many people voted for the King in Saudi Arabia?

In Egypt, democracy means that soldiers ask you who intend to vote for before you enter the polls. If you give the "wrong" answer, you can't go inside and vote. If you get inside, you are given five different-coloured ballots, one of which you cast and leave at the polling booth; the others you take with you outside.
If you leave the polling place with the preferred candidate's ballot in your possession, it's immediate arrest and a jolly beating, along with a conviction for "vote fraud" (you lied to the soldiers about who you intended to vote for).

This little exercise in "democracy" is good for over a million dollars a day in aid to Egypt.

Why must we assume that every election for the res...

2008-09-06T15:47:00.000-04:00

Why must we assume that every election for the rest of time will come down to a single, close swing state?

If McCain loses support like Bush did, it doesn't ...

2008-09-06T15:46:00.002-04:00

If McCain loses support like Bush did, it doesn't look.

"At this time" meaning what?Immediately after thei...

2008-09-06T15:46:00.000-04:00

"At this time" meaning what?

Immediately after their conventions? At the same date? Same number of days before the election?

And what do you mean by an 11-point lead? A single poll? A tracking poll? An aggregation of polls?

And he didn't win by 1.5%, he won by 2.46%

I'm saying this election will be just as close as ...

2008-09-06T15:45:00.001-04:00

I'm saying this election will be just as close as 2000 and 2004, down to one state, despite people predicting how Obama will run away with it.

@vcwhy do you equate Bush to Obama?There is no bas...

2008-09-06T15:45:00.000-04:00

@vc

why do you equate Bush to Obama?

There is no basis for that....none whatsoever. He's either equated with McCain, or neither.

Bush had an 11 point lead at this time, and manage...

2008-09-06T15:43:00.000-04:00

Bush had an 11 point lead at this time, and managed to win by only 1.5%.

Obama has only a 4% lead. If he loses support like Bush did, it doesn't look good.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/09/09/opinion/...

2008-09-06T15:40:00.000-04:00

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/09/09/opinion/polls/main642108.shtml
http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/03/election.poll/index.html

These two links cite post-convention leads for Bush of 7 and 11 points (he eventually won by 2.4%).

I'd love to see something more comprehensive, though, than googling results.

Charles M. Kozierok -To you, probably anyone with ...

2008-09-06T15:39:00.000-04:00

Charles M. Kozierok -

To you, probably anyone with white skin and speaks with some sort of a southern or folksy accent is racist. That has been the longest-running, under the radar, meme regarding race relations in the US the last 15-20 years, and quite frankly, it's sad, appalling, and another reason there is so much partisanship and hatred.

Not to excuse groups like the KKK or other white supremacist groups, but it's become a tired act to "racist-bait" against so many in the Caucasian community. That line of attack is passe except for those delusional enough to believe it has overt applications in modern society or who want to perpetuate hate-mongering between racial groups.

@inkstain:I've done some Googling and it appears t...

2008-09-06T15:35:00.001-04:00

@inkstain:

I've done some Googling and it appears that generally speaking, Bush was up by a few points in most polls in 2004 after the RNC bounce, and he and Kerry were tied in the days AFTER the bounce had faded. Kerry also got a very meager bounce, which I vaguely remember worrying about in '04.

So yeah, Obama appears in way better shape.

new gallup says its a 2 point contest

2008-09-06T15:35:00.000-04:00

new gallup says its a 2 point contest

Todd--the fact that you know about Punto Fijo is s...

2008-09-06T15:32:00.000-04:00

Todd--the fact that you know about Punto Fijo is sort of blowing my mind now. Next thing you will tell me is that you know all about La Violencia and El desmonte in Colombia. ;-)