Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Today's Polls, 6/27

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2009-03-22T15:28:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-12T22:03:00.000-05:00

As the previous poster knows the 100 years in Iraq...

2008-06-29T20:48:00.000-04:00

As the previous poster knows the 100 years in Iraq statement has been taken out of context and its use as supporting 100 years of war has been thoroughly discredited.

With Oil at $140/BB and with American and European oil companies returning to Iraq to exploit resources that rival Saudi Arabia's, the notion of an extended commitment to Iraqi security is sensible and not far-fetched.

We have been in Europe for over 60 years. Our presence there was fundamental to the collapse of Soviet communism -- the primary threat this nation faced in the post war era.

It takes hardly any intellectual leap of faith to support a long term American presence in the Middle East which has now become the chief locus of our most threatening enemies.

Any resistance to that idea is folly and when the argument is ultimately phrased against the backdrop of an improved political and security situation in Iraq, it will become a no brainer. Especially when we are reminded of our dependence on the Middle East each time we dump $50 to $75 dollars of their oil in gas tanks.

Don't be so sure of yourself, JGabriel.

Right, Pete. Because McCain's '100 years in Iraq' ...

2008-06-28T20:22:00.000-04:00

Right, Pete. Because McCain's '100 years in Iraq' position is polling so well with the general populace.

The most interesting thing about the SUSA OH poll ...

2008-06-28T18:50:00.000-04:00

The most interesting thing about the SUSA OH poll is that no matter what the VP matchups, with a couple of exceptions, Obama loses to McCain -- even if he puts Strickland on the ticket. Curiously they did not poll for HRC's impact as Veep. Still I wonder if the rephasing of the question with a VP choice doesn't unmask some of the Bradley effect and give some of the timid anti-Obama vote some courage for coming out against him. Also in general we see again a real stalling of Obama's momemtum. He won't debate, will have to face facts on Iraq and is being stubborn on drilling. What will get him off the dime?

I have to say, it does seem strange to see a wave ...

2008-06-28T17:39:00.000-04:00

I have to say, it does seem strange to see a wave of polls yesterday that were mainly good news for Obama and then see his EV go DOWN.

As for "Anonymous
Does anyone else think Obama's "moving to the center" is risky? His greatest strength is that he's seen as not "of Washington". The way he's flopping around lately, he looks worse than McCain. Against FISA, turning down public financing, pro 2nd amendment, pro death penalty. Its like a completely different guy. I hope he knows what he's doing.
2008-06-28 07:48"

I agree, it is troubling, but whether it is Reagan and Bush or McCain on the right or Clinton and Obama on the left, pols always tack to the center during the general. My gut is that, unlike Clinton, who was NEVER a liberal as governor, Obama has a lot of progressive instincts. Public financing opt out makes a lot of sense, and what is he going to do, come out in favor of the supremes on child rape so mccain can hang the "pro-child-rapist" handle on him? Even in these 2 weeks, not at all Obama's finest hour on principle, he has taken mccain on on iraq, immigration and off-shore drilling, so I am not despairing. The whole game is McCain will try very hard to find a way to paint Obama as a scary "exotic" radical, and Obama will do his best to be a fungible target

Rasmus: Then there are a lot of Appalachian people...

2008-06-28T14:21:00.000-04:00

Rasmus: Then there are a lot of Appalachian people ("Americans")...

That raises an interesting point, and a question I have.

Do we have much (or any) evidence that the 'American' demographic that so clearly preferred Clinton to Obama in the primaries, will similiarly prefer McCain to Obama in the general, and at the same ratios?

I'm not sure that it deserves the same weight going forward that it had in the primaries. The 'American' demo seems likely to have many voters who are willing to support Obama now that he is the Democratic nominee, despite their lack of prior support.

I'm not suggesting that the 'American' demo should be abandoned, but perhaps it should get a lighter weight?

.

Mostly good points, Rasmus. I don't really agree w...

2008-06-28T14:10:00.000-04:00

Mostly good points, Rasmus. I don't really agree with all of them, but they're certainly valid points of debate.

And I do agree that VA is a pure toss-up - which one would expect to show up in the winning percentages as white rather than light red, and supports the contention that the methodology is leaning just a smidgen too far to the right. I guess I overstated the case a little bit when arguing that it should be light blue.

The only point I take exception to is this:

Rasmus: Actually it is counterintuitive to me to keep Obamas numbers up because of ONE SUSA poll in February, taken at a time where Obama was ahead nationwide, and which tends to look like an outlier.

Huh? How can it be considered an outlier if there aren't any other polls to compare it to? (And no, the DWU poll, with its 260 sample size, does not count as a valid point for comparison.)

I'd accept the argument that the SUSA poll runs counter to ND electoral history, but to call it an 'outlier' under the circumstances is just plain silly.

By the way, are you Scott Rasmussen, or just using the 'Rasmus' handle as a nice, polling-centric, nick?

.

JGabrielNate,"This map looks really close to expec...

2008-06-28T13:24:00.000-04:00

JGabriel
Nate,

"This map looks really close to expected outcomes. I think it's closing in on a pretty good methodology.

But Anon@6:56 makes a good point. Absent any polling in DC - which is the current situation - one would expect Obama to be running in the range of 90% +/- 4 there."

Yes, but DC is really hard to predict, because it´s such an outlier. It´s not hard for McCain to get some few percentage points in a few variables. There are some evangelicals in DC, for example, so the regression gives him a few points. It´s the same as with the polls that show Obama leading 85-15 with blacks- even pollsters know it is too less, but almost no one gets it right.

"Also, given all the polls in VA, plus the demographics, and the political situation (Democratic Governor, one Dem Senator with Warner overwhelmingly expected to make it two in Nov., and several Dem House wins expected due to retiring House Republicans), one would expect VA to be at least a light blue, despite it's electoral history."

Actually there are some May polls showing McCain in the lead, and the most recent polls show it as a Toss-Up. The political situation doesn´t matter much, otherwise was Maine a Toss-Up and Arkansas reliably Democratic. There is a HUGE difference between Democratic performances in Presidential and State Races.
And Bush won Virginia by - what was it? 10 points?- there are a lot of Evangelicals, and a lot of Black, what tends to push the white vote to the Republicans, but not enough blacks to get to 30% or so just with them. Then there are a lot of Appalachian people ("Americans"), so there is good reason to show the state as a Toss-Up. And the Snapshot shows the state as slightly blue.

"Finally, to show that the bias isn't simply geographical, there are only two polls for ND, with conflicting results. But the DWU poll has a ridiculously small sample size (260), and the SUSA poll has Obama leading by +4. Under the circumstances, a methodolgy that results in a 77% win percentage for McCain in ND looks counterintuitive. One would expect McCain's win percentage there to be in the high 60's to low 70's, at best."
Actually it is counterintuitive to me to keep Obamas numbers up because of ONE SUSA poll in February, taken at a time where Obama was ahead nationwide, and which tends to look like an outlier.
The Repubs had a 14-point PartyID advantage here in ´04, no minorities here, and most whites are rural, uneducated and poor. Sounds not really like Democratic. Obama has a chance to win, but I think 1/4 is not a bad guess.

"So something still seems a little off in the projections. I don't know what it is, maybe the polls are being underweighted?"
No. They SHOULD be underweighted, because they are 4 months old. New Polls are not underweighted. The regression should just give more data for states without polling, as a main reason.

Whatever the source of the problem, if there is one, the projections methodology appears to be leaning just a little too far to the right.

I´d say it´s about right now, even if I still don´t like the recent changes, the results seem not bad.

Yet another brilliant stupid suggestionOK, I know ...

2008-06-28T12:58:00.000-04:00

Yet another brilliant stupid suggestion

OK, I know this is more work than you'd like, but would it be possible to make the vote distribution histogram clickable? Such that when you click it, you get a larger version? Right now, the x-axis is about 300 pixels long, which is (ahem) obviously way too small to accomodate 538 discrete result possibilities. Some of us numbers geeks would enjoy doing a bit more computation from your results. Thank you.

Mugwump, perhaps you misunderstand the use of the ...

2008-06-28T12:45:00.000-04:00

Mugwump, perhaps you misunderstand the use of the word 'moderate', or it's definition.

For instance, Obama (and anyone with a brain) would naturally have reservations about the death penalty in Illinois after former Gov. Ryan commuted and put a moratorium on the death penalty following proof that 13 people sentenced to death in Illinois were, in fact, innocent of the charges.

That said, Obama has approved of the death penalty for child rape in the past (as far back as debates with Alan Keyes in 2004), and it can be concluded that there are instances in which he thinks it appropriate. While I disagree with that view, it's quite mainstreanm and generally regarded as 'moderate'.

Similiarly, Obama has spoken frequently about how different areas, particularly rural areas, should have less need of gun regulation than urban areas with high murder rates. That's a fairly widespread and common view, one that again fits the definition of 'moderate'.

.

Hey, speaking of Texas, it might be interesting to...

2008-06-28T12:08:00.000-04:00

Hey, speaking of Texas, it might be interesting to see if there is a negative correlation between the size of a state (by population) and the volatility (difference between actual result and average of polls?).

States like Texas and New York are very unlikely to switch, but smaller states (Georgia and Minnesota?) might be more swayed by a concerted push.

For the model this could mean something like flattening the win percentage curve when the state is smaller.

jgabriel, Obama was active in trying to get the de...

2008-06-28T11:52:00.000-04:00

jgabriel, Obama was active in trying to get the death penalty effectively abolished in IL and he has always backed Chicago's ban on possessing hanguns (which the NRA will now get nullified after the SC ruling).

Last year, Obama's campaign said he did not believe the DC ban was unconstitutional and to try to cover that up he has been emphasizing that he has always maintained as a con law prof that the Second Amendment protects individual rights (but he favors lots of gun regulations).

Anon@9:48, there's not much that's particularly in...

2008-06-28T11:17:00.000-04:00

Anon@9:48, there's not much that's particularly inconsistent there.

Obama's always been a moderate on gun issues, pro-death penalty, and he turned down public financing in the primaries.

The only incongruous position you've mentioned is his turn-around on the FISA capitulation.

The latter may alienate some of the netroots (certainly I'm disappointed by it), but, overall, I don't see anything particularly risky here. Yet.

.

Does anyone else think Obama's "moving to the cent...

2008-06-28T10:48:00.000-04:00

Does anyone else think Obama's "moving to the center" is risky? His greatest strength is that he's seen as not "of Washington". The way he's flopping around lately, he looks worse than McCain. Against FISA, turning down public financing, pro 2nd amendment, pro death penalty. Its like a completely different guy. I hope he knows what he's doing.

Nate, This map looks really close to expected outc...

2008-06-28T10:24:00.000-04:00

Nate,

This map looks really close to expected outcomes. I think it's closing in on a pretty good methodology.

But Anon@6:56 makes a good point. Absent any polling in DC - which is the current situation - one would expect Obama to be running in the range of 90% +/- 4 there.

Also, given all the polls in VA, plus the demographics, and the political situation (Democratic Governor, one Dem Senator with Warner overwhelmingly expected to make it two in Nov., and several Dem House wins expected due to retiring House Republicans), one would expect VA to be at least a light blue, despite it's electoral history.

Finally, to show that the bias isn't simply geographical, there are only two polls for ND, with conflicting results. But the DWU poll has a ridiculously small sample size (260), and the SUSA poll has Obama leading by +4. Under the circumstances, a methodolgy that results in a 77% win percentage for McCain in ND looks counterintuitive. One would expect McCain's win percentage there to be in the high 60's to low 70's, at best.

So something still seems a little off in the projections. I don't know what it is, maybe the polls are being underweighted? Whatever the source of the problem, if there is one, the projections methodology appears to be leaning just a little too far to the right.

.

I saw this line in the FDU poll of NJ:"Obama’s lea...

2008-06-28T10:16:00.000-04:00

I saw this line in the FDU poll of NJ:

"Obama’s lead increases substantially, from 13 to 18 points, when voters are asked questions about President Bush and Iraq before they are asked who they might vote for in the election. Half of respondents were asked questions about President Bush and the war in Iraq before being asked who they would vote for in the November election, while the other half were asked about the president and Iraq afterwards."

Nate talked about question ordering before, but I didn't know it would make THAT huge of a difference.

Link to the poll details here

John McCain is getting rocked in NJ. Central Jers...

2008-06-28T09:26:00.000-04:00

John McCain is getting rocked in NJ. Central Jersey is gonna landslide for Obama. McCain may break even in South Jersey but it won't be nearly enough.

I'm not sure about the projections for November. A...

2008-06-28T09:04:00.000-04:00

I'm not sure about the projections for November. All these "Projections" are based upon up to date polls. So the polls change and so do the projection. I much preferred knowing how the race looked today. Prognosticating about what will happen in the future is the pundits job, and they suck at it. No amount of math can predict the future.

Nate, get rid of the projections, just show today's map. I think your mover complicating this
.

There's obviously no need to discuss who should be...

2008-06-28T07:56:00.000-04:00

There's obviously no need to discuss who should be the projected winner in DC. However, the projected Obama results, currently 83.9 percent, makes me wonder if the model might need some adjustment. Since 1992, no Democrat has had less than 85 percent of the vote in DC. Even Mondale carried DC with 85 percent! Kerry had 89 percent, and I would expect Obama to do better than that. Is there something particular in the regression that hurts Obama?

Nate, That is troubling advice, it seems to me. If...

2008-06-28T07:23:00.000-04:00

Nate,
That is troubling advice, it seems to me. If you start adjusting the polls by party ID, without any systematic criteria for doing so other than that the party ID varies from one poll to the next (just like the horse race), you might as well give up the project.

The best and only defensible approach, it seems to me, is to have multiple polls from a given state or to do as you already have, which is to use pollster reliability (PIE) and sample size as a weighting factor for the poll.

I recall the title of one of your BP articles a few years ago: "Randomness! Catch It!" Polls have it, and not just because of sampling but also because of other unpredictable factors that may affect the responses to a particular survey question at a particular time. The best teams in baseball each year typically win just 60% of their games, and sometimes the winner isn't the most talented. Why? Should we award the championship based on adjusted season wins -- because we "know" which team is truly better?

I've done a lot of surveys. Survey results have a lot of noise in them. There are methods to reduce error or to correct for it after the fact but not to eliminate it. But we conduct surveys because they are the best approximation of what it is we want to know about a given subject.

Nate,It would seem worthwhile to find a way to twe...

2008-06-28T03:47:00.000-04:00

Nate,

It would seem worthwhile to find a way to tweak your projections to account for party ID somewhat. I mean, this new Ohio poll is likely not indicative of a major growth in Republican Party affiliation, but rather the result of a more Republican-heavy sample.

We may not be able to say what the actual party ID is in Ohio (if we only had those two polls, our best guess would be average them), but you should be able to use it to adjust your projections. The decline in support for Obama in Ohio between the two polls is most likely due to a difference in samples, not something meaningful. So your projection should be changed to reflect the fact that it appears, given this recent survey, that Republican Party identification may have been underestimated slightly in past polls (while of course this poll probably overestimated it a bit as well), not because Obama is trending downward. In particular, expecting him to do worse in polls in other states because of this new Ohio poll seems foolish from the information you provided. But it seems your recent changes will incorporate this expectation.

I think there must be some way to incorporate the party ID data when it is available to make your projections more accurate.

There's a nice discussion of weighting by previous...

2008-06-28T01:41:00.000-04:00

There's a nice discussion of weighting by previous-vote remembering (in a British context) here:

http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2005/03/28/why-pollsters-ask-how-you-voted-last-time/