Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Bob Barr Not Going Viral

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2009-10-02T04:27:29.313-04:00

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2009-02-08T22:47:00.000-05:00

Fundraising for minor candidates is slow to build ...

2008-06-30T23:34:00.000-04:00

Fundraising for minor candidates is slow to build steam. Ron Paul raised $600K in Q1 2007 but $20 million in Q4. Barr doesn't have the luxury of time, but linear extrapolation is foolish. If he can raise $90K/week in June he'll be raising $250/week in September and likely raise $4-5 million total. Still too little to make an impact in its own right, but enough to keep him on the campaign trail.

By the way, your Buchanan stat is misleading. Buchanan received about $12 million in general election public funds in 2000 after gaining the Reform party nomination (which qualified based on Perot's 1996 showing). The rest he raised as a Republican before abandoning the primaries to Bush. Nader is the only non-major candidate to raise more than a couple million since 1980. Perot never solicited contributions.

I'm hoping Barr picks up steam as I think he could...

2008-06-29T16:39:00.000-04:00

I'm hoping Barr picks up steam as I think he could turn this election into a huge blowout for Obama. If conservatives who don't like McCain think they have a real option in Barr... This could get real ugly for McCain.

I agree with your analysis that Barr isn't picking up much steam yet - But I do think he'll end up getting a lot of support from Ron Paul people once they realize Paul isn't running in the general election.

As Nate could tell you, media-covered third party ...

2008-06-29T14:52:00.000-04:00

As Nate could tell you, media-covered third party candidates traditionally poll higher in June than they do in October and much higher in June than the percentage they actually get on election day. Ross Perot, George Wallace, and John Anderson are the classic examples of this.

For that reason, many pollsters will not mention Barr or Nader by name till we get closer to the election.

3% in a poll now for Barr probably ranslates into 1% on election day.

Barr received the nomination on the 6th ballot bec...

2008-06-29T14:03:00.000-04:00

Barr received the nomination on the 6th ballot because of the way the LP does business. We eliminate the lowest vote-getter on each succeeding ballot, provided no one received a majority. Thus each constituency gets a pretty fair shot for their candidate.
Barr's fundraising was nearly $400,000 prior to the $88K one week goal. Let's see where the fundraising is one week from today (Sun.).

Ah, leave it to the best political team in the wor...

2008-06-29T13:58:00.000-04:00

Ah, leave it to the best political team in the world (CNN) to make this stupid statement:

"So, with a proposed budget of $40 to $45 million"

These clowns will swallow any ludicrous idea someone passes to them.

If you're really going to vote for Mccain or Obama...

2008-06-29T06:26:00.000-04:00

If you're really going to vote for Mccain or Obama this fall... do us all a favor.... kill yourself.

That goes for anyone in marketing too ;)

Anonymous said: "...if Ron Paul couldn't get anywh...

2008-06-29T00:59:00.000-04:00

Anonymous said: "...if Ron Paul couldn't get anywhere with as much excitement as he was generating, Barr is going nowhere fast."

So which is it? Paul's campaign was a huge success. He generated a ton of excitement, and of course many of those people are still out there, working for his causes. That's success.

The system is rigged, to hold Barr to polls (most of the polls don't even include Barr) is absurd.

The goal is advancing the cause...of course winning is nice too. When a politician cares only about winning, well, they run as either a Democrat or Republican.

Ron Paul was not simply a liberatarian like candid...

2008-06-29T00:51:00.000-04:00

Ron Paul was not simply a liberatarian like candidate. He was a real straight talk express. He was clearly against the war. He was so obviously better than any third party candidate excepting Nader, that any so-called analyst who thinks Barr will be in the same league with Ron Paul's success, clearly has spent no more than a few minutes on that "analysis".

The only goal Bob Barr needs to accomnplish to be ...

2008-06-28T23:33:00.000-04:00

The only goal Bob Barr needs to accomnplish to be judged a great success, is to overcome Ed Clark's 1980 Libertarian Presidential vote total of 920,000 (1.1%).

Barr is already polling 3% nationwide in various top polls, and 6 to 8% in some statewide polls.

That's at least 3 to 4 million votes on election day.

That means he would have beat Clark's 1980 total 4 times over.

That's nothing less than a stunning victory for the Libertarian Party. An Amazing one in fact.

I think it is a good point that he has only been r...

2008-06-28T23:12:00.000-04:00

I think it is a good point that he has only been running for a very short time. That's true -- I didn't think of that. But, it is definitely disconcerting to see his extremely modest fund raising goals. I don't know that the Ron Paul contingent will support a Libertarian candidate in a stright run for the presidency like they did a republican for nomination. The two propositions are completely different.

In terms of borders, it is not clear to me that Bob Barr is really that much in favor of *closed* borders or that that is even the issue at all. The issue is *secured* borders, and perhaps that is a bigger issue than the open/closed border issue to "closed borders" libertarians. It certainly IS a big issue, and the issue is not whether or not we let those "dirty immigrants" into our country to steal our jobs or tax our welfare system but whether or not we can actually stop known terrorists and criminals from coming into our country and wreaking havock. That latter point -- that we should not let terrorists or criminals into our country -- is not at all unlibertarian -- not even to most libertarian extremists or purists.

Personally, I think the best thing we can do to *secure* our borders is to open them. It is essentially the "prohibition effect". By making it difficult to get here under legitimate means, we have only created a vibrant market for coming here illegally. And now, it is easy for anyone to get in here without us knowing anything about it. Although some of those "dirty immigrants" might steal some jobs or even go on welfare, at least by letting them through legitimately, we can monitor the flow of traffic and the only plausible means of getting here will be through us. Then, criminals and terrorists won't have a well worn, well established, completely workable to the point of almost being mundane way straight into our country without us knowing about it. The market for coyotes will just dry up.

Ironically, the more media exposure that Bob Barr ...

2008-06-28T21:44:00.000-04:00

Ironically, the more media exposure that Bob Barr gets, the worse he will do in November. Reasons:

He looks and sounds creepy, especially lacking in appeal to women. According to a recent profile, he has no close friends.

He is an outrageous hypocrite. Exhibit A: Bob Barr has railed against Roe v. Wade for decades. The voters of GA threw him out of office after it was revealed that he drove his second wife to a clinic to get an abortion that he paid for. His apparent reason was to avoid paying child support once he married his mistress who became his third wife.

Check out his wikipedia entry if you want to see how grotesque a politician can be. He will get no more than 1% of the vote, and maybe 4% in GA.

John P.: You say it's "not fair" to compare them,...

2008-06-28T20:46:00.000-04:00

John P.: You say it's "not fair" to compare them, but campaigns aren't fair. Given that the press is only talking about him as a possible spoiler, and not a real contender, he has a huge hill to climb and there's no evidence that he's going anywhere.

Just from the online "buzz", I would say that Ron Paul is STILL getting more than he ever has. I see no indication that most are embracing him with anything but a collective yawn.

In short, if Ron Paul couldn't get anywhere with as much excitement as he was generating, Barr is going nowhere fast.

The article is thoughtful, but it seems to rely on...

2008-06-28T20:18:00.000-04:00

The article is thoughtful, but it seems to rely on an assumption that Barr somehow is falling short and it is Barr's fault. The article suggests that Barr's campaign strategy and execution somehow is inadequate.

That assumption is incorrect.

Barr only has been running about one month. Obama and McCain have been running more than one year.

Barr's just beginning to get any national media attention, and of course it's far, far less than that being given to Obama and McCain, who have received extensive media attention for the better part of two years.

Sure, Barr isn't raising money at their level.

The free media given Obama and McCain, and the exclusion of others from that coverage largely dictates who the voters know and who they do not know.

Interestingly, this article runs alongside a lenghty list of presidential polls, all of which list ONLY McCain and Obama.

See the point?

Somewhat OT, but one thing I've been wondering is ...

2008-06-28T20:16:00.000-04:00

Somewhat OT, but one thing I've been wondering is if there's any weight to bellwether states? (Missouri, NV, etc)

Cue conservatives wishing they'd run Romney in 3.....

2008-06-28T19:26:00.000-04:00

Cue conservatives wishing they'd run Romney in 3...2...

RI-X: Comments don't disappear unless they've been...

2008-06-28T18:49:00.000-04:00

RI-X: Comments don't disappear unless they've been deleted by the moderator, and if that happens a notice is left where the post was deleted.

Here I think is the answer to your question. There is limited space allocated to comments in the normal setup, so if there are a lot of comments to a given article the earlier ones scroll off the top.

BUT if you click on the title of the given story or article -- e.g., in this case, click on the red lettered "Bob Barr Not Going Viral" -- then that particular story comes up as a separate thread, and all comments on that article will show up under the article.

Nate: Thank you for the information, as always! ...

2008-06-28T18:41:00.000-04:00

Nate: Thank you for the information, as always! I would disagree on your last point, of Barr needing to gain major traction before the Olympics...I could see something happening at the Ron Paul convention/rally. (The one Paul is holding nearby and during the GOP convention.) As you said, the Ron Paul crowd hasn't been mobilized yet...And I don't know why. It seems fairly certain it will happen, but if there's information on the contrary, I'd be open to hearing it.

And my 2 cents on the current discussion: Barr has as close to no chance as mathematically possible to win the Presidency, but I expect him to put on a pretty good show. Most likely grabbing 3-5% of the popular vote, concentrated in certain states. Especially if it looks like the election won't be close...Libertarians and Nativists will feel like making a statement against McCain with their vote if it isn't likely to change the outcome.

Finally, a quick question. Why do some of the comments disappear? I know a couple of mine have, after they've been up for some time. I'm sure it's nothing malicious, but I'd like to know...Thank you. (I'll check these comments for a reply, or email Cyan092@hotmail.com)

It is my real name (first and middle), but I grew ...

2008-06-28T18:36:00.000-04:00

It is my real name (first and middle), but I grew up in the Central Valley (modesto), not southern California.

To Brian Terrel: any chance that's your real name ...

2008-06-28T18:29:00.000-04:00

To Brian Terrel: any chance that's your real name and you grew up in Los Angeles area (S.F. Valley)? I knew someone with that name -- a long time ago!