Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Today's Polls, 5/27

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2009-10-09T04:33:24.927-04:00

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2009-09-09T02:36:47.079-04:00

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2009-05-12T02:46:00.000-04:00

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2009-03-11T04:26:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-11T04:26:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-10T22:54:00.000-05:00

PS. Why is everyone ignoring North Dakota and Indi...

2008-05-29T01:43:00.000-04:00

PS. Why is everyone ignoring North Dakota and Indiana?

You've got it, stop worrying:WashingtonOregonIowa ...

2008-05-29T01:42:00.000-04:00

You've got it, stop worrying:
Washington
Oregon
Iowa

You've got it if you campaign right:
New Jersey
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin

Tossup:
Colorado
New Mexico
Michigan
Nevada
New Hampshire
Ohio

You'll need a miracle:
Virginia
Missouri
Florida
North Carolina

When pigs fly:
Georgia

Obama's Organizing Fellows reveal the "key" 17 Sta...

2008-05-28T13:29:00.000-04:00

Obama's Organizing Fellows reveal the "key" 17 States: The List

Here, I put those in order for you.

New Jersey
Washington
Oregon
Iowa
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Colorado
New Mexico
Michigan
Ohio
Nevada
New Hampshire
Virginia
Missouri
Florida
North Carolina
Georgia

No way is Obama that far behind in Omaha. No way....

2008-05-28T09:42:00.000-04:00

No way is Obama that far behind in Omaha. No way. That would be a heavier loss in the Omaha area than in any recent election.

Bin this poll, move on to the next one.

Brandon, from where do you get those 24 Million vo...

2008-05-28T02:09:00.000-04:00

Brandon, from where do you get those 24 Million voters?
Not the overall general election turnout should increase by 20%, but the Iowa youth turnout. That probably more like 240,000.

kubla, interesting list. Almost matches the 15 "Ob...

2008-05-28T01:22:00.000-04:00

kubla,

interesting list. Almost matches the 15 "Obama swing states" as listed on this site - with the difference that

- Indiana is out
- Washington, Iowa and Oregon are in.

Interestingly, all four are states in which Obama is doing better than Clinton.

Poblano, What do you think of Chuck Todd's asserti...

2008-05-28T00:25:00.000-04:00

Poblano,

What do you think of Chuck Todd's assertion that the loser (clinton in this case) will poll worse then the presumptive nominee after the battle is essentially over because the nominee (Obama) stops campaigning against Clinton, which in this case seems to have been the case for about 3 weeks here. Be interesting if we had some historical numbers to test this thoery.

Obama's Organizing Fellows reveal the "key" 17 Sta...

2008-05-27T22:56:00.000-04:00

Obama's Organizing Fellows reveal the "key" 17 States: The List

Colorado
Florida
Georgia
Iowa
Michigan
Missouri
North Carolina
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
Nevada
Ohio
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Virginia
Washington
Wisconsin

But those are the same voters. They are just going...

2008-05-27T22:41:00.000-04:00

But those are the same voters. They are just going from Indy to Dem. What I am saying is, I don't see how there will be 24 Million NEW voters this year.

Brandon said: I just don't see where these 24 MILL...

2008-05-27T22:32:00.000-04:00

Brandon said:

I just don't see where these 24 MILLION people would come from. Unless you count the double voting and dead people voting in the major cities.

****

Well Brandon,

If you look at party affiliation and independent leaners and just add 10% to the turnout, you easily pick up 22 Million democratic votes.

The party affiliation difference was only 2% in 2004, approximately 2.4 Million of 120 Million according to Pew http://pewresearch.org/pubs/773/fewer-voters-identify-as-republicans
The party affiliation difference as of 3/20/08 now is net 7 points over 2004, approx. 8.4 Million democratic advantage. Moreover, the independent equal 37% with 4 point spread for democratic leaners vs. republican leaners compared to 2004 add approximately 1.76 Million leaners. This totals approx 10.16 Million democratic advantage over 2004. Now add 10% increased turnout and you get 22 Million democratic voter advantage in this cycle.

So no matter the metrics used by SUSA, this is a democratic election.

I just don't see where these 24 MILLION people wou...

2008-05-27T21:52:00.000-04:00

I just don't see where these 24 MILLION people would come from. Unless you count the double voting and dead people voting in the major cities.

Didn't we hear in 2004 that Kerry was going to inc...

2008-05-27T21:50:00.000-04:00

Didn't we hear in 2004 that Kerry was going to increase turnout dramatically as well? He still lost by 3 MILLION votes.

20% is easily doable. Plus, the young, cellphone s...

2008-05-27T21:28:00.000-04:00

20% is easily doable. Plus, the young, cellphone set that tends to support Obama is the least likely to be cornered by pollsters.

Brandon: let's compared apples to apples. Maybe y...

2008-05-27T21:24:00.000-04:00

Brandon: let's compared apples to apples. Maybe you don't agree with me, but I think people are mad. Really, really mad. In 1992, they were "kind of" mad. Presidential turnout went up 12%. We've only been up a total of 12% in the three cycles since then, so we're somewhat behind. Especially if people are really, REALLY mad. Because in 1992, we saw a 12% increase, and people were just...you know, nettled. There was no Iraq in 1992. There was no $4 gas. There was no 10% increase in grocery prices. People are really. REALLY. Mad. I think 20% is quite doable.

Plus, I'm sure everyone remembers the last time th...

2008-05-27T21:11:00.000-04:00

Plus, I'm sure everyone remembers the last time the Dems had primary turnout this high. They did so well in that election.

120 million people voted in 2004. So to increase t...

2008-05-27T20:27:00.000-04:00

120 million people voted in 2004. So to increase the turnout by 20% would be to add 24 MILLION voters. That's not happening. Sorry to break it to you.

Patrick,Hillary has not been fully vetted. She par...

2008-05-27T20:04:00.000-04:00

Patrick,

Hillary has not been fully vetted. She partnered with Republicans to take down Obama so all of the opp research has been on Hillary.

Can you imagine what they will do with those 16 Puerto Rican terrorist who committed 130 Bombings and killing scores of US citizens that President Clinton pardoned at according to some Hill's request so that she could run in NY. Or the major flap that will come regarding Billary and the library donor scandals and the other tax returns that have not been released.

Unfortunately, the campaign being so tilted toward Obama and Obama did not really attack Hillary in the same way as the Republican's would attack which has left us a blind spot with Hillary that we have not had an opportunity to really measure.

So the polling will not reflect the vetting that will occur going forward.

I admit that there will be additional vetting with Obama and other issues, but we really have a tremendous head start with both Hillary and the Republicans conducting massive operation research over such a long campaign.

Further, I would like to see what effect a lack of Obama's campaigning over the last three weeks against Hill has had on her negatives and polling. Are we actually getting a false pulse for Hill.

Is there a way that you could change the color of ...

2008-05-27T19:52:00.000-04:00

Is there a way that you could change the color of the states on the left to purple as a reflection of only one of the two democrats winning? Florida and Colorado are misleading unless you look at the numbers.

niq77174-It's not just increasing the youth vote b...

2008-05-27T19:50:00.000-04:00

niq77174-

It's not just increasing the youth vote by 20%... it's increasing it by 20% relative to all other age groups. The number of young voters increased in 2004 like everyone predicted, but it stayed relatively the same percentage of the overall vote since other age groups had increased turnout as well.

IMHO, it's a big stretch to make that assumption... they have done it in their other state-by-state polling too, not just for Iowa.