Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Today's Polls, 7/22

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2009-10-08T07:13:03.660-04:00

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2009-09-11T02:56:28.283-04:00

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2009-02-14T02:23:00.000-05:00

Obama was at about 330 EV just a few weeks ago, th...

2008-07-23T21:12:00.000-04:00

Obama was at about 330 EV just a few weeks ago, this is a tad bit troubling, time will tell if things go back up or not. Interesting indeed. In the end I still see a political landslide one way or another.

Many of the coments on the importance of OH being ...

2008-07-23T13:55:00.000-04:00

Many of the coments on the importance of OH being a must fro Obama to win are false. That is the thinking of the Republicans placing all importance on OH and Fla. They ahve no path to victory without both, Obama has multiple paths without both. The SW is very hopsitable to Dems if they actually campaign their, which was Kerry's downfall the Dems's had carried NM 3 times in a row and Kerry didn;t put any effort there, the Des had even won NV 2 of 3 and AZ once. Obama sees futile ground in the SW and as the saying goes," GO west young man..go west!" He's leading in NM, CO, NV.

Obama is going to win and it would be great if he wins without OH. The Dems can finally get the idea that there is more than OH and Fla to win an election. Dean started that idea about expanding the field in 2004 and Obama is actually implementing it. Dean took alot of flack for putting DNC resources into the SW..CO, NV, and places like MT, ND, SD, .etc...and other places that were traditionally Red states. Dems have made great gains in those states at the state level.

My ideal win for Obama IMO to finally change the Dem party mindset would be a win of 2004 DEms states plus IA, NM, CO, NV, VA..and maybe IN(border state polling close).They lose OH and Fla and still win by 60 EC votes. That is the best thing that could happen to the DEm party to change tgeir mindset of Fla and OH being the end all and be all. It would also change the Republicans thiking and both parties might actually run national campaigns in the future based on the changing demographics of the country.

Whatever the cause, these results validate the use...

2008-07-23T13:12:00.000-04:00

Whatever the cause, these results validate the use of the yellow regression line. I recall a fair amount of criticism directed at that little widget. Its small sample size and all, but.. kudos to you, Nate.

Obama Ohio Futures are in a trading range of 60 to...

2008-07-23T13:11:00.000-04:00

Obama Ohio Futures are in a trading range of 60 to 70, having dropped from 69 to 65 since the weekend. The market seems to be discounting the latest Rasmussen poll results for Ohio.

Definitively an OUTLIER. Rasmussen has new Fl poll...

2008-07-23T12:53:00.000-04:00

Definitively an OUTLIER. Rasmussen has new Fl poll out today, Obam now leading by one point, an eight point swing from before. The Ohio poll wouldve had to reflect a massive swing in voter opinion and would be reflected elsewhere. Surely Obama can't lose 18 points in Ohio and gain 8 in Fl off the same News Cycle.

I find it odd - and more than a little worrisome -...

2008-07-23T12:10:00.000-04:00

I find it odd - and more than a little worrisome - that the simulations show Obama losing the election 97.85% of the time if he loses OH. If the election were held today he would likely win the Kerry states and IA, NM & CO, whether or not he won OH. With the regression analysis, these states are all still projected to favor Obama in the fall. That spike at 273 is clearly this scenario - and the spike at 293 includes OH. I just can't imagine that the "Obama loses without OH" scenarios are 98% more likely, given that both currently and moving forward these states are all expected to go for Obama.

There are of course a few other possibilities with VA, MO, and NV, and a few others. I hate to think it rests on OH again. Some of those simlations at either end are just not going to materialize (e.g. McCain 438 - Obama 100). The odds of Obama winnig without OH seem to me like they might be under 50% - but under 3? Is this because of the demographic link between OH, MI and PA? Is there a huge assumption that if he loses OH, he loses all three? What about the fact that MI and especially PA have continually polled better for Obama so far this cycle - consistent with their performance in the last two elections? I am concerned - but also not convinced.

"SG said... Cugel: Haha @ Colorado Springs. ...

2008-07-23T11:09:00.000-04:00

"SG said...

Cugel:

Haha @ Colorado Springs.

Any chance you folks can carve that whacko town out of the beautiful, libertarian state of Colorado and toss it into Kansas where it belongs?"

WE WISH! LOL!

Actually we haven't heard as much out if the wing-nuts in Colo. Springs in recent elections. They can't be happy that Colorado has moved decisively to the left (from their perspective), but they were SOOO extreme they frightened everybody.

We like freedom a lot here in Colo. and we don't much like extremists, which is why Obama's FISA vote may cost him some in this state. It's received a lot more local publicity than Sen. Salazar's similar vote. Bush style extremism has put everybody off. The fundies love it but everybody else hates it.

That's an important lesson for President Obama. He will need to make a constant effort that Bush NEVER made, to visibly listen to people who might disagree with him and appear to actually take other views into account.

It's interesting that Another explanation is that ...

2008-07-23T11:06:00.000-04:00

It's interesting that Another explanation is that Obama simply can't seal the deal with voters in Ohio who are undecided. McCain's lead in the Rasmussen poll increased significantly once the "leaners" were included.Obama seems unable to close the race, much like he could not close the race against Hillary Clinton...

Also, to the commenter above who says Obama isn't running the Kerry campaign - the fact is, without Ohio, Obama's chances of winning in November are very low.

Speaking of Virginia... PPP: Obama 46 McCain 44. ...

2008-07-23T11:02:00.000-04:00

Speaking of Virginia... PPP: Obama 46 McCain 44. In other words, no change in relative terms from last month's PPP. Interestingly, while last month's D/R/I split was 45/30/25, this month's is 36/36/28, and there's no gender gap showing up in the results.

Seeing as Obama actually has polled better in Ohio...

2008-07-23T10:42:00.000-04:00

Seeing as Obama actually has polled better in Ohio than in Virginia, it's a bit odd to make a claim to the contrary, though I do agree that he has a better chance of picking up VA rather than OH. It'd be silly to at least not try to contest Florida by doing things like sending in organizers. (And there's been a few suggestions that the second-generation and third-generation Cubans are nowhere near as hard-line as their predecessors; IIRC, both of the Diaz-Balart brothers are actually in danger of losing their seats.)

I find it hilarious that all the pollsters are sti...

2008-07-23T10:17:00.000-04:00

I find it hilarious that all the pollsters are still thinking in a box. Obama has never put much stock in OH or Fla. That was the Gore and Kerry losing strategy. Why should Dems bet the farm on either like Keey and Gore, since Fla has voted Dem 2 times in the last 10 elections and OH just 3 times in 10. The sign of true stupidity is doing the same thing and expecting a different result. Obama is not stupid thus not betting on OH and Fla. Obama can win without either by IA, CO, NM gains and hold MI and PA and it's all over. That is their real strategy. The back up after that is VA or IN. He has always polled better in VA than OH or Fla so why not focus on that. Guess what he has if people have been paying attention. The demographics of DC suburbanites, minorities, highly educated in VA favors Obama more than OH or Fla. OH and Fla though they have been over glorified in importance the last few elections, are not that way in the Obama campaign. Obama campaign is not betting the farm on OH b/c they are very smart, they know they can't change the minds of people that are in economic hardship such as OH, but continuously vote against their own economic interests by voting for Bush twice and possibly voting McCain, who is Bush part III. Dems aren't going to win Fla either; the Jews aren't going to vote for Black guy and the Cubans vote for RepubliCans, as they win thes ridiculous pander game.The pander game of the Cuban embargo and anything anti-castro. We have a ridiculous embargo on Cuba, but our largest trading partner is China, yea those communist with gross human rights violations; who make 50% of everything you see in the store. US foreign policy is stupid in this regard!

People need to realize Obama is not running the Kerry or Gore campaign of Fla/ OH or bust.

Since I don't want to drivel up the Kaine thread, ...

2008-07-23T09:53:00.000-04:00

Since I don't want to drivel up the Kaine thread, today's Ras tracker: 45-42 Obama without leaners, 47-45 Obama with.

He's also promising polls on FL and MN today. Keep in mind that Ras-MN has had Obama with a commanding lead for some time now (never lower than +13, and was +17 not two weeks ago), while the closest Ras-FL has ever been is M+7 last month.

Scott,The comparison I'm looking for is between th...

2008-07-23T09:14:00.000-04:00

Scott,
The comparison I'm looking for is between the share of the vote of Obama+McCain before and after the July surge, with and withot leaners. I think this comparison would be even more meaningful than an Email from Rasmussen telling us whether he did or did not change his methodology or his presentation. I'll get to this today myself if I have the time.

You're right it's getting to the point it might be visible in the overall results. Especially since it has more impact more recently, which the supertracker erroneously reads as a further downwards trend.

BTW, I don't think it's possible to suggest how to divide the weight because we don't know Nate's weighting mechanism for supertracker purposes. But in principle the weighting should be dynamic, gradually moving from leaners excluded to leaners included. Note that by our suggestion, leaners included would be effectively dropped from the supertracker on July, because they have no comparable (which seems to me right).

I grew up in a republican part of Ohio and I serio...

2008-07-23T08:57:00.000-04:00

I grew up in a republican part of Ohio and I seriously doubt that after the absymal job that King George and Tricky Dick have done the last 8 years, many of these people will be voting for more of the same. I am not a poll expert by a long shot but Rasmussen seems to constantly favor McCain. I will only believe these results when I see additional evidence.

What is key is that the effect of McCain switching...

2008-07-23T07:50:00.000-04:00

What is key is that the effect of McCain switching to a Karl Rove campaign strategy is kicking in. I think the gloves are off - morality and all that is off the table - the McCain camp now want to tear Obama down however they can. McCain's latest statement about Obama wanting his own political victory more than military victory in Iraq is a direct mirror of the arguments Bush used against Kerry in 2004. It is funny how little the media reported how McCain has recently hired many of Roveians to run his campaign.

sylphhead... you do also agree that the PPP poll s...

2008-07-23T07:40:00.000-04:00

sylphhead... you do also agree that the PPP poll should be weighted more heavily, as Nate weights it?

Anonymous @11:17:"Let me get this straight, one ba...

2008-07-23T07:34:00.000-04:00

Anonymous @11:17:

"Let me get this straight, one bad poll for Obama in Ohio, and a bunch of the pro-Obama supporters, incredibly including Nate, are ready to throw the state overboard? Go ahead, I encourage you, but boy is that naive. The Dem's stand a very good chance in Ohio if they would just hold their water and push forward."

With all due respect to Nate, this is a great blog but it is ... a blog. People expressing their anxiety on a blog is not the same thing as the Democrats giving up a state. I somehow doubt the army of volunteers in Ohio are going to throw up their hands and cancel their efforts based on the polls.

Obama's comments and reception on his tour so far ...

2008-07-23T05:32:00.000-04:00

Obama's comments and reception on his tour so far are impressive and presidential. McCain's gaffes, mis-speaks are telling. Jed Lewison's "McCains Never Ending War" clip is also damaging to McCain.
Certainly when team Obama shifts into gear following the DNC convention, I think the focussed messaging timed to impact decisions at election time will be sweeping.
Obama's pollings do look good for a "novice".

Cugel:Haha @ Colorado Springs.Any chance you folks...

2008-07-23T04:27:00.000-04:00

Cugel:

Haha @ Colorado Springs.

Any chance you folks can carve that whacko town out of the beautiful, libertarian state of Colorado and toss it into Kansas where it belongs?

To the people concerned with Barak not winning the...

2008-07-23T02:30:00.000-04:00

To the people concerned with Barak not winning the white vote...

When was the last time the democratic candidate(win or lose) won the majority of white voters?

Michael said...>Adam said:>"We've seen this before...

2008-07-23T02:22:00.000-04:00

Michael said...
>Adam said:

>"We've seen this before. In the primaries Obama never won a state he wasn't supposed to."

It may not have surprised YOU that Obama romped in lots of very white states in the Midwest and Rocky Mountain regions, but it sure as hell surprised a lot of people!

Don't forget the Indiana primary. Sure it wasn't a win, but it was sure as hell was a surprise to everyone.

Adam said:"We've seen this before. In the primarie...

2008-07-23T02:15:00.001-04:00

Adam said:

"We've seen this before. In the primaries Obama never won a state he wasn't supposed to."

It may not have surprised YOU that Obama romped in lots of very white states in the Midwest and Rocky Mountain regions, but it sure as hell surprised a lot of people!