Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Oregon: Swing State or latte-drinking, Prius-drivi...

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2009-10-09T05:53:30.516-04:00

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2009-03-18T07:21:00.000-04:00

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2009-03-11T04:06:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-11T04:06:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-10T21:45:00.000-05:00

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2009-02-09T05:42:00.000-05:00

The Bush/Kerry graph is excellent. I am very surpr...

2008-10-14T20:26:00.000-04:00

The Bush/Kerry graph is excellent. I am very surprised by the total lack of Moderate/Moderate states. Is there any historical data that shows if this is a recent phenomenon? There is a lot of noise about the hyper polarization of America today, but it would be nice to see data like this to back up that claim.

For what it's worth, my brother in Portland notes that ultra-liberals and ultra-conservatives in Oregon are not dispersed throughout the state, rubbing shoulders. There are pockets of ultra-liberal (Portland; Eugene), surrounded by a sea of ultra-conservative.

Love the site, first time poster, and I hate to be...

2008-10-01T12:15:00.000-04:00

Love the site, first time poster, and I hate to be negative on my first post but you're missing the boat on this one. A lot of Northwest conservatives are the sort of Western libertarian types who don't neatly fit labels. Basically as long as you let them keep their guns, stay off their land and keep their taxes low, they'll leave you alone to do your own thing. This explains why they co-exist with the Portland types and don't get in the way of things like assisted suicide. Trying to rate them on some sort of faux "liberal/conservative" scale doesn't do these folks any justice.

Obama has great support from liberatives.They are ...

2008-09-18T04:25:00.000-04:00

Obama has great support from liberatives.They are concentrated even more heavily in the Northwest.I support obama,even clinton also right person.
========================
Annie
Dui In California

here the above matter deals that differentiated th...

2008-09-15T19:42:00.000-04:00

here the above matter deals that differentiated the liberal,moderative and conservative.here obama and clinton create a democratic party.the liberatives are great support to the obama and attrctive,take clinton has less compared to him.
==================================
vendor
california Dui

Reads like just so much mental-masturbation. Liber...

2008-05-21T20:23:00.000-04:00

Reads like just so much mental-masturbation. Liberal this, Conservative that that crap only exists in the heads of political pundits with too much time on their hands.

This is one of the most astute analyses of my fair...

2008-05-19T23:24:00.000-04:00

This is one of the most astute analyses of my fair state I've ever read. Remarkable--thanks.

My comments do not appear to be showing up. Sorry...

2008-05-19T05:38:00.000-04:00

My comments do not appear to be showing up. Sorry if this is a double post, but I think you need to do a study of libertarians. Here is a recap of what I posted:
- People with libertarian views compromise about 10-20% of the electorate
- They are concentrated even more heavily in the Northwest (see Ron Paul's donation map)
- One poll asked people if they were libertarian, conservative, liberal, moderate. Only 1% said libertarian. They were then read a definition of libertarian and afterwards asked again - this then increase to 12%. The important finding is that the gains came roughly equally from those who had said liberal, conservative, and moderate.
- Libertarians voted 72-20 for Bush over Gore, but only 59-38 for Bush over Kerry

Here's something to do some research on: The numbe...

2008-05-18T22:17:00.000-04:00

Here's something to do some research on: The number of Mormons in Oregon. In the past 20 years, I think there's been a noticeable increase, especially in Bend and in the suburbs of Portland. They are probably the most reliably right-wing voting bloc in the country, and I suspect that they're behind the Republican shift to the right in that state.

One picture equals 1,000 words. Your little Kerry-...

2008-05-18T18:14:00.000-04:00

One picture equals 1,000 words.
Your little Kerry-Bush graph illustrates well some key voting trends in Western states. I'd like to see age as a third dimension, because these Western states have been going through some demographic changes, and I'll bet the "sagebrush rebellion" Republicans are aging out of the voting pool. In the West we never really had that many "Reagan Democrats". The Republican coalition was over-represented on the substantial population of business, anti-tax and neo-con.

Also, these high-tech Western states have a lot of Liberal Independents (you might call them small-L libertarians), who never felt comfortable committing to the Democratic Party, but whom Bush's failures and Obama's attraction has put into play.

Pew's Red-Blue Report from 2006
The Clinton-Obama match-up has illustrated the changing demographics and changing coalitions that make up the Democratic Party. Pew did an awesome ideological analysis in 2006 called Beyond Red vs Blue. At the time, I looked into some of the cross-tabs in a MyDD post Regional Differences in Democrat & Republican Coalitions. For me, the take-away point about the Democratic Coalition in the West is the dominance of the Liberal Dem identifiers: In the West fully 27% of the electorate identifies as Liberal Democrat, 53% higher than the National numbers. This 27% becomes 2/3 of the Democratic Party coalition in the West (when compared with 9% Conservative D, 5% Disadvantaged D).

Although the base is pretty Liberal, and the Independents hanging in the wings, the Democratic Party establishment in the West tends to be pretty Moderate, if not downright Conservative. This reflects the historical problem of winning elections in a basically Red state. The growth of the Urban centers in CO, OR and WA is steadily eroding the Conservative threat. At some point, we could see the Party shift to a much more Liberal identification.

This over-identification of Liberal Dem is a key subtext explaining the cluster of WA, OR, CO. I note that VT, MN and NM share the cluster created by Poblano's graph.

I don't know why it was never really mentioned thr...

2008-05-18T13:32:00.000-04:00

I don't know why it was never really mentioned throughout the primaries that Hillary would have lost Oregon and Washington to McCain. There's really no question about it.

Poblano, do you actually plan in advance how you r...

2008-05-18T13:23:00.000-04:00

Poblano, do you actually plan in advance how you roll out your posts, to create suspense and a larger narrative? So that now, for instance, you gradually prepare for the story of Oregon?

I am more and more impressed by this site.

Obama2008: that's a good suggestion, to make each ...

2008-05-18T12:23:00.000-04:00

Obama2008: that's a good suggestion, to make each dimension + or - from either the midpoint (5) or the mean or median of the state scores.

BTW/ Poblano--this is going to be interesting to play out in other states. It also speaks to the debate among political scientists about whether the polarization of politics is more an elite or mass phenemenon.

Look for discussion of Morris Fiorina's argument about the myth of culture wars and debate around that: http://www.hoover.org/publications/digest/3010006.html

My view of Oregon is that there is a lot of voters...

2008-05-18T11:36:00.000-04:00

My view of Oregon is that there is a lot of voters tend to have libertarian tendencies; which explains the support for assisted suicide, drugs etc. However views on fiscal policy (especially taxes) is probably what causes the vote to be so close.

Hey, Poblano, could you do a special look at Nebra...

2008-05-18T10:50:00.000-04:00

Hey, Poblano, could you do a special look at Nebraska and Maine, and their electoral vote splitting by congressional district? I know that'd be hard, considering that I can only think of one poll which I've seen which broke things up by congressional district, (that national SUSA poll), but you could probably use demographics from other pollsters to make a projection about the CDs.

Plus, while I wouldn't read TOO much into the SUSA poll showing Obama ahead in CDs 1 and 2 (I hate to think of what the margin of error is on a poll with a sample size of 200), I could certainly see Obama winning CD 2 (Omaha + Suburbs), especially if he picks a VP like Sebelius, who has some regional appeal.

It seems to me that the axis on your graph is a li...

2008-05-18T09:17:00.000-04:00

It seems to me that the axis on your graph is a little confusing. While you go from left to right people get more moderate, as you go from down to up people get less moderate. I know that it is a scale of "liberal-ness," but it seems like the graph would be more intuitive if we were deviating from the "center."

Just my two cents.

Note that the South was solidly Democrat as late a...

2008-05-18T07:09:00.000-04:00

Note that the South was solidly Democrat as late as the early 60s despite the fact it would have been more presumably Republican by ideology. This was so for reasons that required some knowledge of 19th century history. The West, having a shorter history, is populated by those who vote for more readily appreciable or intuitively obvious reasons that don't require some sort of historical explanation of how its identity developed. "pure play" ideology has more appeal out here, and so libertarianism, which is perhaps the purest in terms of a coherent philosophy divorced from or undiluted by particular, concrete antecedents, has more appeal in the West.

Why Appalachia votes like it does, to take a contrasting example, is un-obvious to me and seems to require some sort of ethno-history account to make sense of it. I think the West is more contemporary in that you'll see the polarization out here spread to the rest of the US in the future, with, for example, anti-abortion, pro-gun Democrats, now rare in the West, becoming rarer in the East as well.

@anonymous at 3.11 AM:Yes, and that margin of erro...

2008-05-18T04:53:00.000-04:00

@anonymous at 3.11 AM:
Yes, and that margin of error would be smaller than that of the actual results.

Poblano, I´ve got a question (or maybe two): Do you plan to decrease the range of random numbers with time?

And the second one is more important:
You assume that McCain and Obama have both a chance of 50% to improve their current polling numbers. When the Obama random numbers are negative, things get worse for him and when they are positive, they get better.

But is it a fair assumption that McCain and Obama have the same campaigning skills, the same danger of getting into another scandal etc.?
I know, it is almost impossible to get that into numbers, but is it fair that the range of random numbers is for example (-4;4)?
Shouldn´t we account for the missing media coverage of Obamas past and make it (-5;3) or for Obamas great campaigning skills (when he travels around the US for the next 5 1/2 months, he´ll have a lot of rallies and he´ll get a lot of people to vote, donate, call and canvass, and more than McCain) and make it (-3;5)?

That is just something that was in my head the last week.

Up until recently, party registration was very clo...

2008-05-18T04:48:00.000-04:00

Up until recently, party registration was very close, Dems always ahead but not by much so that created the toss-up categorization.

As of April 08 however, the difference in party registration has grown from a 3% Dem advantage to about 9 1/2% now. Lots of new Dems in the state. Less of a toss up now I would imagine.

Poblano, it sounds like you're prepping us for ano...

2008-05-18T04:11:00.000-04:00

Poblano, it sounds like you're prepping us for another variable to be slotted into your regression thingy.
At this rate, by Novemeber there'll be no need for the GE to be held, you can just simulate it for them with an error margin of <500 votes.