Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Wrong Track

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2009-10-08T08:27:47.440-04:00

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2009-03-11T05:37:00.001-04:00

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2009-02-12T22:04:00.000-05:00

jsh1120 - I agree, to better simulate the actual l...

2008-06-27T21:06:00.000-04:00

jsh1120 - I agree, to better simulate the actual lead up to the election, the horse race question should be preceded by "Do you approve of Senator Obama's joining the mosque of Hamas' leader?" and "Have you heard that John McCain beat his wife in a cocaine-induced rage?". That way they'll be sure to frame their decision in the context of this historic election.

Though Nate's comments that question order matters...

2008-06-27T16:51:00.000-04:00

Though Nate's comments that question order matters are undoubtedly true, I have a somewhat different take on the point.

At this (still relatively early) stage of the campaign, questions dealing with issues and candidate images provide a shorthand "simulation" of the campaign itself.

I'd argue, in fact, that the polls that precede a candidate preference question (or a partisan ID question) with a series of issue questions (or right track/wrong track) provide a context that the voter may well experience in the days leading up to the election and may well provide a better gauge of voter intention than a bare voter preference question as found in the daily tracking polls.

these must be the "low info" voters that brian sch...

2008-06-27T15:36:00.000-04:00

these must be the "low info" voters that brian schweitzer talked about on his speech you can find on youtube.

that's why to me, he would probably make a great vp pick.

its sad to think that although 85% of us are pretty well informed, its that unpredictable know-nothing 15% that really breaks the tie on these things.

At the very least we know what Obama should concen...

2008-06-27T15:25:00.000-04:00

At the very least we know what Obama should concentrate on. If he convinces the electorate that McCain is tied to "wrong-track" then he wins easily.

Jinchi wrote: "But isn't this a fundamental proble...

2008-06-27T15:22:00.000-04:00

Jinchi wrote: "But isn't this a fundamental problem that McCain is going to have as we get closer and closer to the election? He's ultimately going to be tied to the incumbent and the "right track/wrong track" numbers aren't likely to turn around dramatically.

Whether that's "a fundamental problem that McCain is going to have" shouldn't (as you say) be assumed in the survey. Indeed, there are many other "fundamental problems" that both Obama and McCain will have before election day, and the campaign is all about trying to frame the debate in a way that favors one's own candidate.

IOW, who's to say that a simple "right track, wrong track" assessment is going to dominate such other frames as "experience vs. change" or "victory vs. defeat" or "radical liberal vs. middle of the road"?

Just as Quinnipiac did in that NJ poll that Nate analyzed, the survey researchers ought to be seeing how different frames work, but they can't themselves determine which frame will be most salient to the voters on election day. That's going to come from "life itself" and from the media and from the campaigns. It shouldn't come from the pollsters.

Sorry Nate but I see Frank Newport's comments as y...

2008-06-27T15:18:00.000-04:00

Sorry Nate but I see Frank Newport's comments as yet another example of him trying to defend Gallup tracking polls' skewed results. Why does he fee he needs to defend it? Because his is the ONLY poll showing a tie! EVERY other poll shows an Obama lead (big or small, but at least a lead). Please disregard Frank Newport's comments as little more than a defense of his own polls messed up results.

I'm stunned that you find the flaw in that and not...

2008-06-27T15:16:00.000-04:00

I'm stunned that you find the flaw in that and not the other polls:

Who in their right mind thinks that in November 2008 voters will not have the change/anti-republican mood in mind when they are voting?

In this case, an overwhelming majority of American...

2008-06-27T15:13:00.000-04:00

In this case, an overwhelming majority of Americans think the country is on the wrong track, and most of them also associate that with the incumbent Republican administration.

I agree with you that the question biases the poll and shouldn't have been in the original questionnaire.

But isn't this a fundamental problem that McCain is going to have as we get closer and closer to the election? He's ultimately going to be tied to the incumbent and the "right track/wrong track" numbers aren't likely to turn around dramatically.

Right now many people aren't thinking about the presidential race and the result is large numbers of undecided voters. By September people will be taking more notice. It seems like this will weigh more on McCain as the months go by.

A more general point, other than that context and ...

2008-06-27T14:54:00.000-04:00

A more general point, other than that context and question order matter, is that a source of error in horse race polls is that the surveys in which they are embedded often have multiple purposes and multiple clients.

Readers here often ask "when's the next poll from [NAME OF STATE] coming out from [NATE OF POLLSTER]. Often the answer can only be, "When that pollster has a client or set of clients to put a survey into the field."

But it's up to the survey designer to make sure that the question order doesn't corrupt the results either within or across blocks of questions. Looks like the LA Times poll was done by an amateur.

arguably, though, actual voters will get a fair am...

2008-06-27T14:25:00.000-04:00

arguably, though, actual voters will get a fair amount of "national mood prompting" before the election just based on the fact that they, y'know, live in the nation.

This is revealing... So, it indicates that the rea...

2008-06-27T14:20:00.000-04:00

This is revealing... So, it indicates that the real stakes of this election are not about experience or issues, but rather about whether McCain can paint a rosy picture of the shithole we live in today, or whether Obama can hammer home just how bad things are...

When people go to vote thinking of how shitty things are, they vote Obama much more; when they eat the force fed McCain Bullshit, they'll vote like ignoramouses...

Explains how things got so bad in the first place if you ask me.

Nate, how about an open thread on occasion?

2008-06-27T14:19:00.000-04:00

Nate, how about an open thread on occasion?

For those of you with less of a statistical backgr...

2008-06-27T14:18:00.000-04:00

For those of you with less of a statistical background, may I suggest the following episode from the BBC series Yes Prime Minister:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2yhN1IDLQjo

It’s a great clip I’ve used to make Nate’s exact point.

Well said Nate. But now that I think about it, s...

2008-06-27T14:17:00.000-04:00

Well said Nate. But now that I think about it, some "non-partisans" should all go hold signs outside of polling locations on Election Day that say:

"Do you think the country is headed in the right direction, or the wrong direction? Be sure to vote today!"

That'd improve Obama numbers without looking partisan.

I'm not sure if they still do it, but for a while ...

2008-06-27T14:15:00.001-04:00

I'm not sure if they still do it, but for a while the Rasmussen polls were all asking those surveyed their opinion of Bush as question 1, and their McCain/Obama preference as question 2.

This seems like it would have the same problem.

Thank you for your analysis...Finally a reasonable...

2008-06-27T14:15:00.000-04:00

Thank you for your analysis...Finally a reasonable explanation for why the outlier polls are so far out of their margins of error. (Though there is always a chance for this, of course, as the margin of error isn't definitive.)

Interesting... thanks.

2008-06-27T14:14:00.000-04:00

Interesting... thanks.

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Wrong Track

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jsh1120 - I agree, to better simulate the actual l...

Though Nate's comments that question order matters...

these must be the "low info" voters that brian sch...

At the very least we know what Obama should concen...

Jinchi wrote: "But isn't this a fundamental proble...

Sorry Nate but I see Frank Newport's comments as y...

I'm stunned that you find the flaw in that and not...

In this case, an overwhelming majority of American...

A more general point, other than that context and ...

arguably, though, actual voters will get a fair am...

This is revealing... So, it indicates that the rea...

Nate, how about an open thread on occasion?

For those of you with less of a statistical backgr...

Well said Nate. But now that I think about it, s...

I'm not sure if they still do it, but for a while ...

Thank you for your analysis...Finally a reasonable...

Interesting... thanks.

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