Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: 538 on Countdown

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2009-10-08T06:42:44.668-04:00

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2009-09-11T07:57:50.940-04:00

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2009-03-11T22:25:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-11T22:25:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-15T21:23:00.000-05:00

Hope they use you more as we do the GE run up. I'...

2008-08-10T23:32:00.000-04:00

Hope they use you more as we do the GE run up. I'm going to leave a message for Rachel Maddow to get you on her radio show. Maybe some others can too. Hint, hint.

feedback@airamerica.com

Couldn't find a specific link to her but this is the one for Air America. I just addressed a note to her at that address.

Good job Nate. Blow a tube.

2008-08-10T19:42:00.000-04:00

Good job Nate.
Blow a tube.

test

2008-08-10T14:47:00.000-04:00

test

clarkejeffrey, I am confused. Ras. had the bad Ohi...

2008-08-10T12:33:00.000-04:00

clarkejeffrey, I am confused. Ras. had the bad Ohio figure. You gave an explanation. BUT, and I could be wrong,his site does not refer to this Ohio figure, but uses another figure. I've probably confused you. Also his MOE makes him less reliable than other polls, does it not? Help me out. Jack

Jonny:The state-by-state breakdown of presidential...

2008-08-09T23:07:00.000-04:00

Jonny:

The state-by-state breakdown of presidential polling is on the left (under the pie charts).

:>

judas_priest: Pete Kent: Why don't you start your ...

2008-08-09T22:19:00.000-04:00

judas_priest: Pete Kent: Why don't you start your own web site? You could use the slogan, "No numbers were crunched in the presentation of this site."

ouch.

Pete Kent:Why don't you start your own web site? ...

2008-08-09T18:10:00.000-04:00

Pete Kent:

Why don't you start your own web site? You could use the slogan, "No numbers were crunched in the presentation of this site."

Nate, if you're reading this, please ignore all th...

2008-08-09T17:25:00.000-04:00

Nate, if you're reading this, please ignore all the (well-intended, I'm sure) advice you're getting in these comments, unless your goal in life is to be a Talking Head. You came across as real, smart, and honest, just like the content of your website. I'm sure traffic to your site is growing just fine with the excellent word of mouth it always gets. I've seen you mentioned on so many blogs, in print, and now on TV. Just keep doing what you're doing; that's why most of us are here.

Great job, nate/poblano.

2008-08-09T16:38:00.000-04:00

Great job, nate/poblano.

The real story is how Ras and others try to influ...

2008-08-09T16:16:00.000-04:00

The real story is how Ras and others try to influcence the outcome. Look at Ras on Ohio. An obvious attempt to bolster McCain supporters psyche.

He doesn't seem to be doing much to bolster McCain supporters psyche in Wisconsin and Minnesota.

That poll in Ohio was obviously off. I think he undersampled young voters and hit an unrepresentative sample. This happens in polling sometimes. I don't think its intentional. I don't think that Obama +15 poll was a deliberate attempt either.

Polling isn't perfect and you see some clear outliers sometime. I think you have to use the averages.

You look a little like Harold Ford, Jr., Nate.

2008-08-09T15:55:00.000-04:00

You look a little like Harold Ford, Jr., Nate.

A little common sense on polls. All people look at...

2008-08-09T15:31:00.000-04:00

A little common sense on polls. All people look at is the final poll--how close was the poll to the actual outcome. The real story is how Ras and others try to influcence the outcome. Look at Ras on Ohio. An obvious attempt to bolster McCain supporters psyche.

I could do a "poll" the day before election. Just kind of average the respectable polls and use that figure. I would be close, and then next election cycle I would be taken seriously. I think that's Ras's system.

I may be unfair but Ras. using Kudlow as an endorsement has to make you suspicious, Kudlow being 'hysterical' Republican. Jack

Pete,You might have missed a couple threads ago wh...

2008-08-09T15:28:00.000-04:00

Pete,

You might have missed a couple threads ago where someone asked Nate to go on O'Reilly.

He said he'd love to, and for anyone with a connection to the show to tell Bill to contact Nate. Keith got him on because Keith posts at DKos and someone led him here, so, if you know of a similar way to contact someone at Fox, go for it.

"I must attribute last night's result in the Gallu...

2008-08-09T15:23:00.001-04:00

"I must attribute last night's result in the Gallup to "statistical noise" (certainly not "regression to the mean"!) and dismiss it and chuckle that like the man who went on a bender you eventually have to pay for the fun.

Watch what happens to Obama's number once last night's sample drops off. He better have had a bitchin' couple of days!"

This really is hilarious! McCain gained two points in Rasmussen and it's because of either Edwards or Georgia (the country), or Obama's vacation. Obama gains two points in Gallup and it's an obvious fluke that portends a big Obama drop in three days when it drops off.

How about this: the tracking polls both show very strongly THAT ABSOLUTELY NOTHING IS CHANGING ABOUT THIS RACE. Over the past week, they've gone from averaging about +1 Obama to today averaging +2 Obama. At most, you could argue that's a very slightly pro-Obama week. More reasonably, ABSOLUTELY NOTHING HAS CHANGED ABOUT THIS RACE.

Rasmussen markets data gives Obama a 59.8% (same 6...

2008-08-09T15:23:00.000-04:00

Rasmussen markets data gives Obama a 59.8% (same 60%) chance of winning the White House. That´s more important than the daily presidential pool.
Remember that.

McCain isn´t win in the Rasmussen tracking since M...

2008-08-09T15:18:00.000-04:00

McCain isn´t win in the Rasmussen tracking since May without leaners. He "leads" with "leaners".

Pete, Darien...Assuming for the moment that Nate i...

2008-08-09T15:08:00.000-04:00

Pete, Darien...

Assuming for the moment that Nate isn't willing to go on Faux (something we've seen is incorrect, already...), and assuming that his purpose is to influence voters, rather than to report what the math shows him and to drive traffic to this site and perhaps benefit from his work...

It would be a waste of time to go on Fox. The data shows that Fox viewers voted 87% (from memory--it might have been 83%...) GOP. Pursuing that demographic is highly inefficient, so it would make sense for Nate--if he's just pushing Obama--to put himself where voters more likely to consider voting for a Democrat are going to be watching.

Pete, you remarked, in all your blather; With the Left, always remember: In their minds the Ends justify the Means.

Ah, yes. Like the Geneva Convention and Constitution are quaint pieces of paper. Like Gitmo, completely and totally under US control, is not subject to US law and American courts. Like torture is ok, ethical, moral and laudable when used by Americans....

It must be physically painful to be so full of shit.

I am sorry if you were not aware that Move On . Or...

2008-08-09T13:59:00.000-04:00

I am sorry if you were not aware that Move On . Org had put a ban on any Democrat it supports appearing on Fox News. People are punished for breaking it.

Pete,

I wasn't aware of this. That is still free speech though. Its a political organization. They can do whatever they want. If they were a government organization, I would agree with you.

If it was say, the person in charge of hiring prosecutors for the justice department and they paid attention to the political views, that would be a problem.

That is a big blip upward for Obama, I doubt that it is totally explained by McCain having gone negative. There was a trend that would support that thesis, but it was decelerating, not accelerating. Yesterday with the Edwards story breaking and the Georgia conflict, not to mention President Bush playing to his base about America and the defense of freedom, I would have thought that the movement would start turning to favor McCain, as Ras has done.

A couple of things. I don't think Edwards or Georgia are going to affect the presidential race at all. Second, any day Bush is on the news is a bad day for McCain.

Ultimately though, I think you are right. It is statistical noise. I'm not sure we've seen any real movement in the last month or so.

I would note that if I'm willing to acknowledge that the upward trend in Gallup is statistical noise, you should be willing to note the same about the downward trend in Rasmussen.

Obama's true lead is about 3 points and has been there for quite awhile.

You've had a habit of saying every McCain friendly poll is a great sign and every Obama friendly poll is a clear outlier or statistical noise. This is delusion on the greatest level.

Pete, you really are incorrigible.I find it kind o...

2008-08-09T13:56:00.000-04:00

Pete, you really are incorrigible.

I find it kind of endearing, actually (in a perverse kind of way :-)

"I must attribute last night's result in the Gallu...

2008-08-09T13:51:00.000-04:00

"I must attribute last night's result in the Gallup to "statistical noise"

You are such a hypocrite "Pete Kent." Anytime the McCain gets close in the Gallup poll you blather that Obama's support has collapsed, but when the gap expands in Obama's favor, you call it "noise." You do not reason well.

I am sorry if you did not know Fox News was a GOP propaganda machine.