Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: The Contact Gap: Proof of the Importance of the Gr...

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2009-10-02T06:04:52.839-04:00

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2009-09-30T01:39:04.345-04:00

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2009-04-16T05:08:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-08T22:59:00.000-05:00

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2009-02-08T21:54:00.000-05:00

I worked with the Obama campaign in Washoe County,...

2008-11-10T13:30:00.000-05:00

I worked with the Obama campaign in Washoe County, NV targeting the Latino community. Do you have any data on Latino turnout and new registrations for Washoe County?
And a breakdown of the Latino vote nationally?
Stella

My Experience:I was contacted twice in person and ...

2008-11-09T23:13:00.000-05:00

My Experience:

I was contacted twice in person and once by phone (along with a few Dem robo-calls). Each time, they were looking to talk to me, instead of the two other Dems in the house. The difference was probably that I registered here in Fl last December, and the two other Dems were long time residents.

They appeared (in person) to want to make sure I knew where my early voting place was. The phone call was to verify that I had indeed voted.

A friend, upon returning from voting, had 4 robo-calls on her answering machine: Barack, Michelle, Hillary, and The Dem party.

WV:haltunbl Obviously a subliminal attempt to stop the bull coming from the UN.

I find it hard to believe that it was even 36%/43%...

2008-11-09T18:25:00.000-05:00

I find it hard to believe that it was even 36%/43% for McCain in OHio. The only way this could be true would be if robocalls are included. My son working for Obama was in charge of an Ohio town of 36,000 where some residents had maybe 5 or so personal visits from his team plus numerous personal phone calls. They worked their tails off. McCain had ZERO presence there. And this was repeated throughout Ohio.

And Joe above, it wasn't simply money that built Obama's ground game. The thoroughness and detail of the organization was amazing. Almost all of the workers were volunteers, and my son, 1 of 2 paid staff there, worked practically 24/7 for what amounted to maybe $4/hour. They worked so hard because they believed in their candidate, and that kind of dedication can't be bought.

I was a McCain 'marshall' in virginia and yes, you...

2008-11-09T16:51:00.000-05:00

I was a McCain 'marshall' in virginia and yes, you torched us bad. We had stupid kids out of college running these field offices and no decent correlation with local Republican officials. Obama didn't just win this election due to Bush's unpopularity, fears of the economy and Sarah Palin's negatives; he won it due to this incredible ground organization he built -- the best money could buy! Meanwhile, McCain was paying his top staff 6-figure salaries and taking public financing. What a joke.

I worked the streets of New Hampshire for eight we...

2008-11-09T15:21:00.000-05:00

I worked the streets of New Hampshire for eight weeks, and never saw a McCain campaigner - or literature, at a neighborhood door. In 2000 Bush won a narrow victory; in 2004, Kerry won a narrow victory; in 2008 Obama won a decisive victory. The ground game made a big difference there.

The Obama-McCain differences in contact rates are ...

2008-11-09T13:56:00.000-05:00

The Obama-McCain differences in contact rates are dramatically smaller than what 538's reporting would have led one to expect. Do people overestimate contacts? What gives?

As I commented throughout the campaign, we weren't...

2008-11-09T13:44:00.000-05:00

As I commented throughout the campaign, we weren't seeing the "tightening" in Chester County Pa that the pollsters were. Looking at our frequent "touches" our voter group was growing, the undecideds were breaking our way, and we found nothing to make us worry. The results validated this as my 12 precincts all outperformed our expectations. What we found out afterwords was the local goopers abandoned three of the five races(one as a win and the other as losses) and spread direct money to the usual suspects to soften the results on those two undercard pairings.
We'll have to change their name to the Republican Syndicate if the trend of darkside campaigning continues...

oops. that's Willow Another Mike link to PORN site...

2008-11-09T12:57:00.000-05:00

oops. that's Willow Another Mike link to PORN site; I repeat, they should be banned.

I saw somewhere that wealthier voters broke for Ob...

2008-11-09T12:56:00.000-05:00

I saw somewhere that wealthier voters broke for Obama, and I believe they are the most likely to vote.

I too got frustrated callees who had too many visits/calls.

Love the site for breaking news.

Willow/Another Mike site designed to make it hard to leave it. You are sickos and should be BANNED.

One of the main reasons for McCain choosing Palin ...

2008-11-09T12:23:00.000-05:00

One of the main reasons for McCain choosing Palin was supposed to be to enthuse the Republican base, and boost their turnout on November 4th. But all the evidence is that the opposite happened. The main reason for the disappointing turnout so far seems to have been a very poor turnout of natural Republican voters.

An element of the ground game that I found worriso...

2008-11-09T10:53:00.000-05:00

An element of the ground game that I found worrisome in working for the Obama campaign half the time, and the Alexandria Democratic Committee the other half, was the EFFICIENCY of the ground game, and how we can make improvements. We know the Obama campaign wanted us to make those phone calls, but the lack of efficiency in having too many volunteers mixed with the erroneous data entry resulted in uncontrolled chaos. Those of us who have worked on campaigns for over 30 years had some ideas, but no one was interested in hearing them. We explained that there was a big different between working hard and working smart, and came up with a plan to work more efficiently, but that never materialized. As a result, some people were called no less than 12 times, even, embarrassingly enough, to members of our democratic City Council. Volunteers who didn't want to do the phone calls were told there was nothing else for them to do, so they went away discouraged. But there are lots of other things for them to do, so I sent them down to the ADC to volunteer on other projects. So how do we keep those kids engaged for the next time around, and train them to things other than make phone calls? How do we make them feel a part of the election if they don't want to make phone calls? Now that we've harnessed a tremendous amount of passion from this campaign, how do we sustain it? Anyone have ideas?

Forgive if I repeatYou may be overlloking the poss...

2008-11-09T02:53:00.000-05:00

Forgive if I repeat

You may be overlloking the possibility that contacts build into the poll advantage. If half the population of a state has been contacted, and contacts influence opinion, half the survey samples are going to have been contacted as well. If anything, the linear model understates the effect of the ground game.

I think many of you here forgot about the effect o...

2008-11-09T01:44:00.000-05:00

I think many of you here forgot about the effect of Palin. While McCain's campaign was not as well organized as Bush's, Palin was as much liked as Bush among the religious right and hardcore conservatives. While McCain appeared to have lost a lot of votes among independents and moderates because of her, it was very much neutralized by the increased turnout in the extreme right. That may explain why Obama's numbers were lower than expected in states in the extreme South, such as GA, AL and LA.

The fact the Obama did exceptionally well in big c...

2008-11-09T00:37:00.000-05:00

The fact the Obama did exceptionally well in big cities, and in particular those with the highest globalism ratings, bodes well for his future interactions with the world from a US perspective.

why wouldn't New Mexico be a bellwether, it has be...

2008-11-08T23:46:00.000-05:00

why wouldn't New Mexico be a bellwether, it has been right except 1976 and 2000 (but 2000 was a strange year, and the margin was 366 votes in nm)? Missouri has now missed twice, and I contend that NM only missed once (1976)

@ThomasLots of empirical evidence suggests you're ...

2008-11-08T22:21:00.000-05:00

@Thomas

Lots of empirical evidence suggests you're right. F2F contacts are much more impactful than virtually any other means of delivery, while phone calls (especially robocalls) have little or no effects. http://research.yale.edu/GOTV/

Too bad the survey did not look at what the contac...

2008-11-08T21:45:00.000-05:00

Too bad the survey did not look at what the contact was. A personal, face-to-face visit may have a lot more impact than a phone call (much less a robocall). The McCain campaign appears to have been almost all on the phone -- I saw no evidence of McCain canvassers while visiting hundreds of homes in VA.

@DavyReally, is there a 'compelling reason' for th...

2008-11-08T21:37:00.000-05:00

@Davy

Really, is there a 'compelling reason' for the voting populace to care? You're making a lot of assumptions about the extent to which an individual's vote is pivotal in elections and the extent to which elections matter for changing the real conditions of an individual's daily life. Unless a person really gets a thrill out of taking valuable time out of her day to vote in a state whose election outcome is pretty much foreordained, I'm not sure why anyone would vote in a state where the probability of being pivotal is so low.

I also would bet that your theory is exactly backward. The wealthiest Americans have the most to lose as a consequence of policy changes, so I don't think we're seeing any evidence of post-materialist apathy. The poor, uneducated and minority subgroups are the ones most challenged to register and subsequently vote. While underrepresented groups probably feel a greater sense of inclusion in the process this year than in past elections, the fact remains that virtually nothing has been done to enable members of these groups to participate meaningfully in the political process.