Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: 21-2

Holy Shnikes! that's a lot more comments than I ex...

2008-10-09T20:31:00.000-04:00

Holy Shnikes! that's a lot more comments than I expected to see.
I was just going to say that when I saw the title of the post, 21-2, I thought it was going to be a comment on McCain's odds.

Wow. Just saw this. Apologies if it's already po...

2008-10-09T13:13:00.000-04:00

Wow. Just saw this. Apologies if it's already posted. McCain is really slinging the mud. It's one thing to have Hannity and the McCain surrogates pull these stunts, but another thing to make this a central fixture in the campaign:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ONfJ7YSXE5w

I can't say for sure, but I think (I hope) it will backfire.

ass rider,At least Obama doesn't consider someone ...

2008-10-09T10:57:00.000-04:00

ass rider,

At least Obama doesn't consider someone with a net worth of $4 million middle class.

McCain doesn't understand the term, much less the issues of the vast majority of the population.

That is why McShame rarely mentions them, and one reason he is getting his wrinkled ass handed to him.

McCain needs something big.Acorn seems a likely be...

2008-10-09T04:37:00.000-04:00

McCain needs something big.

Acorn seems a likely bet.

He will accuse Dem's of electorial fraud.

It will, of course be true. You can't have tens of thousands registering millions of voters without a few registrations for "M.Mouse.".

I would also be willing to bet that a few registration forms filled in as Republican ended up in trash containers.

Sorry people but it is true. Republicans might have the majority of idiots, but not a complete set.

"McCain has been targeting the base for this whole...

2008-10-09T04:36:00.000-04:00

"McCain has been targeting the base for this whole election season, when who he should have been targeting is moderates, which is his strength anyway. I think the biggest threat for our side is McCain picking a new VP candidate, someone who appeals to centrists and is actually qualified."

Even if he got a new VP who was truly qualified, I am not sure that it would help much. It would hurt.

If he is giving Palin the boot, the next choice would be to appeal to centrists, which is what he should have been doing all along.

It would show that his judgment is poor to independent voters who tend to be more critical thinkers then the right wing base, and it also runs the risk of disappointing those hateful fundies frothing at the mouth at the thought of someone as reckless and ignorant as Palin.

On the other hand, Palin has whipped them into a frenzy, maybe she will stay on as an "advocate" for the nutbags, even though to make this fly they need to frame it as she is leaving for family or some other BS.

Palin was a decision made in the throes of panic. With the last few weeks, McCain and his merry band of idjits must be well beyond panic, so who know what kind of desperate act it might be.

If there is any voice of reason left in the McCain camp, whatever it is better be reasonable and thoughtful, or watch him go into a free-fall.

The more I think about it, the more it seems likely that it will be something mild to try and distract from the report due on Friday. The shotgun wedding might seem like a radical thing to do to these people.

But does anyone really care if 2 reckless and uneducated(sexually, at least) kids get married or not? Maybe I am out of touch, but I think the country has bigger fish to fry.

If the marriage is the big news, what does that say about the state of his campaign?

Stop panicing about voter disqualification. The Ob...

2008-10-09T04:11:00.000-04:00

Stop panicing about voter disqualification.

The Obama team is all over it. They expected it. They planed for it.

It will still happen. But it is NOT going to be a major factor. This election is not going to be stolen.

Supposedly, the NRA is going to announce later tod...

2008-10-09T04:10:00.000-04:00

Supposedly, the NRA is going to announce later today that they're supporting McCain (there's a shock). Anyone know if this is McCain's big announcement?

http://www.spectator.org/blogger.asp?BlogID=15230

Course, they might be announcing the shotgun wedding later... that would be a fitting bookend for the NRA story.

"The 'news' might be the shot-gun wedding that was...

2008-10-09T04:02:00.000-04:00

"The 'news' might be the shot-gun wedding that was rumored last week. Didn't one story say campaign staff was "giddy" about it, saying it would be worth a week in MSM coverage?"

Maybe it would be if the DOW hadn't, like, halved today. It would be truly asinine for them to believe that one of Palin's kids' weddings would turn around their numbers in the polls. Even in an election when times are good, I really don't think people give a shit. Did Bush's approval ratings go up when Jenna tied the knot? Don't think so.

"It is either some new lame maverick-y economic proposal, Palin stepping aside, or some meaningless endorsement. Maybe from Lieberman? :)"

I think it's probably one of the former two. The first, if it were actually SOUND or at least sounded that way, might improve McCain's poll numbers at least slightly (why isn't there a halfway decent economic advisor on this campaign putting something together? McCain needs to hire someone that's NOT from the supply side camp--no one wants to hear about supply side anymore, since they're the ones that got us into this mess).

The idea of Palin stepping down has gotten me really curious as to what the net affect would be. They'd gain some swing voters if they put someone like Romney in the VP slot, but they'd lose some swing female voters, too. My guess would be a net affect of +1 to +3 nationally, and perhaps MO, NC, and OH turning very light pink or returning to ties. But only if McCain picked Romney. Anyone else would be a bust, unless it were a smart, moderate female Republican like Kay Bailey Hutchinson--who knows what that would do.

McCain has been targeting the base for this whole election season, when who he should have been targeting is moderates, which is his strength anyway. I think the biggest threat for our side is McCain picking a new VP candidate, someone who appeals to centrists and is actually qualified.

As the campaign heats up further and candidates mo...

2008-10-09T03:39:00.000-04:00

As the campaign heats up further and candidates move closer to the centre, I expect the catch-phrases "my friends" and "middle-class" to be superceded by "my middle class friends".

"This country is in crisis, my middle class friends. And I know how to help those who need help most: my middle class friends."

The "news" might be the shot-gun wedding that was ...

2008-10-09T03:14:00.000-04:00

The "news" might be the shot-gun wedding that was rumored last week. Didn't one story say campaign staff was "giddy" about it, saying it would be worth a week in MSM coverage?

I am not sure why people are so afraid.Has McCain'...

2008-10-09T03:12:00.000-04:00

I am not sure why people are so afraid.

Has McCain's campaign ever showed even a glimmer of competence?

If it is a big bomb, and McCain or his advisors bring it out, odds are it will blow up in their faces. Smears are spread fairly quietly, especially new ones.

The McCain smear ads are the same crap Hillary tried. They weren't anything new. Just more low-class.

It is either some new lame maverick-y economic proposal, Palin stepping aside, or some meaningless endorsement. Maybe from Lieberman? :)

Some people think Powell is going to endorse those two racist dimwits. Not frikken likely.

I think Palin is going to drop out for "family rea...

2008-10-09T03:06:00.000-04:00

I think Palin is going to drop out for "family reasons".

Since her comical debate performance she has been riling up the KKK base at her rallies. Energizing a base that has been flat all year.

There is no way she can continue to act like this and keep her political career. But if she dropped out now, the base would stay excited for McSame, and people would forget the absolute garbage she has been spewing.

Maybe I am just too tired to think straight. Unless they have a photo of Obama sharing a joint with Bin Laden, it is not going to be anything negative.

In 2004, everyone was saying it was the end of the...

2008-10-09T03:03:00.000-04:00

In 2004, everyone was saying it was the end of the Democratic Party. By 2006, they had a small congressional majority. There's quite a few similarities.

Right now, there's a HUGE power vacuum in the Republican Party. They have no leader. Everything was centered around the Big Business-Evangelical coalition personified by Bush. Now it's falling apart, and there's no one to step in and represent the party. Granted, no one really wants to right now, and there's no congressional leaders to stand in until it resolves itself.

There's going to be some absolutely EPIC maneuvering to get the star spot. Will there be an Obama that steps up and saves the day with a new coalition or will an old-hat "restore" the traditional meaning of Republican.

Hey Nate, any comments on if this ACORN thing will...

2008-10-09T03:00:00.000-04:00

Hey Nate, any comments on if this ACORN thing will affect Obama's chances in battleground states at all?

I'm really wondering about the long term future (a...

2008-10-09T02:54:00.000-04:00

I'm really wondering about the long term future (and viability) of the Republican Party. Traditionally (if I remember my poli-sci classes) in 2 party systems when a party veers too far one way, they begin losing moderate support which causes them to lose elections which then causes their leadership to pull back to center.
The Republicans pulled right and now moderates are leaving them. (Admittedly, this took longer to happen than I would have liked. Centrist Republicans stayed apologists for their party's behavior for too long.) I have seen no evidence that the party is moderating, in fact it seems quite the opposite. As moderate leave, the wingnuts take over and become ever more convinced that the reasons they are losing is because they are not extreme enough.

Oh, or3) Back to Michigan! The Palin teases abou...

2008-10-09T02:51:00.000-04:00

Oh, or

3) Back to Michigan! The Palin teases about it just lead up to it seeming like she made a decision and Out-Mavericking McCain.

Okay I am too worried to sleep after going to Poli...

2008-10-09T02:42:00.000-04:00

Okay I am too worried to sleep after going to Politico and reading the comments. They are convinced it is something big... I had to go back and read the comment, again. Just says we have to wait and there is something coming tomorrow. But they are writing of a huge sell off of Obama on Intrade...

"Between 8:45 PM and 9:15 PM tonight (Oct 8) on Intrade, someone just bet a LOT of money against Obama winning the presidency. And I mean a LOT. His stock, which has been over 70 for a couple of days now and at 76 most of the time today dipped down to 64 or so in those 20 minutes under heavy betting before recovering immediately after 9:15 to 73... Very strange.. is there something someone knows?? What is the news tomorrow."

Making me too nervous to sleep. Lot's of hate talk too... nothing like coming back here for some comfort... Scared of everything right now and not because I think Barack has done anything wrong but if someone eager to get voters did then it is scary. Chances are also that this could be something that Mc Cain sees as big good news for him. Possiblities are endless. Palin's kid is getting married or an endorsement or cabinet pick. Who knows.

Zogby tracking has Obama by 4, up 2 from yesterday...

2008-10-09T02:41:00.000-04:00

Zogby tracking has Obama by 4, up 2 from yesterday.

"Democrat Barack Obama has built a 4-point lead over Republican rival John McCain in the race for the White House, aided by growing support from women and independent voters, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Thursday."

Repubkican voter purges as effective as Obama vote...

2008-10-09T02:39:00.001-04:00

Repubkican voter purges as effective as Obama voter drive?

MSNBC lead story at this hour:

"States have been trying to follow the Help America Vote Act of 2002 and remove the names of voters who should no longer be listed; but for every voter added to the rolls in the past two months in some states, election officials have removed two, a review of the records shows.

The six states seem to be in violation of federal law in two ways. Some are removing voters from the rolls within 90 days of a federal election, which is not allowed except when voters die, notify the authorities that they have moved out of state, or have been declared unfit to vote."

Repubkican voter purges as effective as Obama vote...

2008-10-09T02:39:00.000-04:00

"Could McCain's big news be health related?"Naw......

2008-10-09T02:31:00.000-04:00

"Could McCain's big news be health related?"

Naw...It's likely some namby-pamby nonsense proposal.

1) They're seemingly gleeful about it, so it's pro-McCain, or some sort of factual disqualification of Obama.

or, more likely

2) It's nothing. If it were truly big, important news, then they wouldn't have to tease it. They'd just release it and let it dominate the cycle.

dan wrote:if people check their registration statu...

2008-10-09T02:24:00.000-04:00

dan wrote:
if people check their registration status, and find out they've been dropped, are they still bound by the general registration deadlines?

They can always cast a provisional ballot.

Could McCain's big news be health related?

2008-10-09T02:21:00.000-04:00

Could McCain's big news be health related?

Another crop of people worrying about the Bradley ...

2008-10-09T02:17:00.000-04:00

Another crop of people worrying about the Bradley Effect who seem to have no idea what the term means.

But the underlying idea - racism - I think is over-rated.

It is not as if the Democrats are running Flava Flav, Huey Newton, or Mike Tyson for President. Obama is an educated, articulate, successful (half) black man. He is the kind of black man that a lot of racists tend to point to with approval as proof that they don't hate all black people, just the "culturally inferior" ones.

And, yes, certainly there are people out there who do hate all black people. There are also people who think he is a Muslim, or that think the Earth is flat, or think that Jesus picked Bush to be President and talks to him on a daily basis, and people who think Spain is in South America.

No matter who the Democrats would have picked as a candidate, there would have been some group of highly deluded or grossly ignorant within the electorate that would have rejected him/her out of hand for very stupid reasons.

The Republican strategy for the past twenty years has been to cultivate stupidity, intolerance, and ignorance and use it to their advantage. The entire premise of right-wing talk radio, for example, is to let stupid people feel very intelligent by parroting taking points that the intellectuals "just don't get" because they can't grasp "common sense".

If Obama wins, the Republican strategy of cultivating these negative characteristics will be proven a losing tactic. Like virtually everything else in this campaign, the GOP is relying on outdated notions and generally living in the past. The racism that exists today is not as prevalent or virulent as that which existed twenty years ago.

So, "big news" from the McCain tomorrow. A brief ...

2008-10-09T02:12:00.000-04:00

So, "big news" from the McCain tomorrow. A brief jaunt through the winger sites suggests they'll try to pin Obama as a member of the New Party, a now-defunct, slightly left (well right of Green Party) organization with some ACORN ties that endorsed him in 1996. It seems that using Google 2001 they have found a newsletter where the New Party claimed him as a "member" after he won election as a registered Democrat. The ties are far weaker than Palin's ties to AIP. So, feeble, now-defunct, slightly left of Democratic center labor/party organization endorses virtually unopposed Obama and claims him as a member. Got that?

Also, Gen. Petraeus advocated negotiating with the Taliban warlords to separate them from Al Qaeda today. But that's actual news, let's not talk about that.