Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Stevens' Lead Shrinks to 971 Votes, With Many Yet ...

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2009-10-02T05:54:26.971-04:00

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2009-04-16T04:48:00.000-04:00

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2009-03-12T21:54:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-12T21:54:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-08T21:47:00.000-05:00

I like the fact that the Alaska Independent candid...

2008-11-13T20:15:00.000-05:00

I like the fact that the Alaska Independent candidate has 11315 votes, with Stevens currently behind 800 or so. It makes me believe in God.

testing

2008-11-13T07:55:00.000-05:00

testing

Begich is now up by 814 votes. Alaska, you can sta...

2008-11-13T00:53:00.000-05:00

Begich is now up by 814 votes. Alaska, you can stay in the union.

STepper wrote: Always a great statistician, but so...

2008-11-12T22:37:00.000-05:00

STepper wrote: Always a great statistician, but sometimes a lousy writer.

Look at this phrase (ughh): "that he appears more likely than not to surpass Stevens."

How about removing all the Palinese and simply writing

"that he appears likely to surpass Stevens."?

I disagree. "More likely than not" has a different meaning for me. It implies that the odds on something are close to 50/50, but that one outcome is slightly more favorable than another.

"Likely to" suggests "will probably happen," which is a different kettle of fish.

The use of the phrase makes the writer's intent more specific, rather than less so, which makes it the opposite of Palinesque.

Why not revoke Alaskan statehood and revert it to ...

2008-11-12T21:20:00.000-05:00

Why not revoke Alaskan statehood and revert it to terrotorial status?

A move to do that MIGHT just get their freaking attention up there. Both Alaska's senators would lose their jobs and the state would lose its leverage for wads of pork.

I mean, a state that's as coddled and subsidized by oil company and federal money as Alaska is, ought to at least be able to run an election. I mean, there are plenty of places where they can hand count 90,000 paper ballots in ONE NIGHT! Those ballots were SUPPOSED to be where they could be counted on election night!

Heck with 'em. Revoke their statehood and have Obama appoint, say, John Kerry as territorial governor to piss off the righties. Then appoint Peter Fitzgerald as US Attorney.
The feds have done massive corruption investigations that have cleaned up places like Chicago and put John Gotti out of business. Doing Alaska would be a cakewalk.

As one Chicago precinct captain told me, explaining why he would never violate the law in
a polling place: "Just one federal grand jury subpoena can ruin your whole day".

Andy JS, the way they count these in Alaska is to ...

2008-11-12T20:50:00.000-05:00

Andy JS, the way they count these in Alaska is to count the ones that arrived by Election Day first, and then to move on to the late arriving votes. So the remaining ones are likely to be post-conviction.

My Alaskan source now says that Begich is up by 40...

2008-11-12T20:44:00.000-05:00

My Alaskan source now says that Begich is up by 400 with votes still being counted.

A person reading the Enquirer calling me a moron!

2008-11-12T20:43:00.000-05:00

A person reading the Enquirer calling me a moron!

Wow...PeteKent is a fucking moron. On another not...

2008-11-12T20:39:00.000-05:00

Wow...

PeteKent is a fucking moron.

On another note, The National Enquirer is breaking a story on Cindy McCain's affair, with photos of her kissing another, less wrinkly and impotent, man.

http://www.nationalenquirer.com/world_exclusive_cindy_mccain_caught_cheating_on_sen_john_mccain_with_other_man/celebrity/65736

Did anyone see Frontline last night?Lee Atwater wa...

2008-11-12T20:36:00.000-05:00

Did anyone see Frontline last night?

Lee Atwater was profiled in a doc. called "Boogie Man" (double enten, because he was a creep as well as a blues musician)

The take away... Republicans starting with Nixon through W are a severe mongrel breed of political criminals. Pretty much all of them. That especially includes the big kahuna Reagan.

Led to office by hatchet men... Haldeman, Erlichman, Rollins, Atwater, Rove... who are accomplices to the ruin of this nation.

Until the Repubs of that era are crushed- that includes Chamblis, Stevens, Coleman - the US will never progress.

CRUSH THEM. THEY ARE IMPEDIMENTS TO PROGRESS WE NEED.

PS- Atwater died of brain tumor in 1991. (On March 5, 1990, Lee Atwater collapsed during a fundraising breakfast on behalf of Senator Phil Gramm, how's that for a clutch of scoundrels) no doubt God's retribution for the Dukakis campaign... He appologized to Dukakis for his deeds on his death bed (although Mary Matlin downplayed that in the show because she never gives a fucking inch)

We are hostages to the current breed of Republicans... we progress IN SPITE OF THEM. NOT BECAUSE OF THEM.

All good Americans pray for their demise. (and for their brain tumors)

I don’t think for a moment that Palin want the Sen...

2008-11-12T20:29:00.000-05:00

I don’t think for a moment that Palin want the Senate Seat and probably doesn’t even want the headache of appointing someone. Again, we seem obsessed this week with her. Could it be that the novelty of Obama’s election has warn off already?

Link: http://www.salon.com/opinion/paglia/2008/11/12/palin/index.html

Camille Paglia’s latest piece in Salon is perhaps the most balanced summary account of where we are and why as I have seen. In a magnificent sweep she takes us from the improbable excitement attendant on Obama’s victory to the improbable vilification that Sarah Palin was exposed to on the national scene.

As she has all season, Paglia insists on seeing things for the way they are and has suspended judgment based on policy and has filtered this campaign through her own peculiar lens of character.

She has enthusiastically embraced Palin's persona, while expressing disapproval, mostly mild, of Obama’s own turn on the stage.

Camille is sympathetic to the double standard and extensive scrutiny that Palin got, as compared with the free pass Obama got. That the attacks seemed most resonate within the councils of the educated and elite made it all worse. Talk about your culture wars!

I mean, really, how Bourgeois!

In fact, Palin, as Paglia points out, by her very example has advanced the cause of women’s rights by showcasing just how a successful woman can be wife and mother: She gets help from her Husband! Could it be that hubby is willing to pitch in for his successful wife provided she retains her feminine charm, looks and guile? She competes as a woman as an equal. This may be Palin's greatest strength.

That and her cross-cultural appeal. Her example can be as inspiring and empowering to the working class woman as it is to the aspiring female executive. I wonder if it can be said that Hillary Clinton inspires so broadly. While HRC’s appeal is undeniable, I am not sure she is as personally inspiring to the working class woman as Clinton.

Camille Paglia is stunningly perceptive to see how Palin’s appeal could even extend to the Third World. Imagine then the reputation of America and what it would have been said to have accomplished: First bringing Democracy to the World and then liberating half of its citizens.

Breathtaking!

It is hard to read Paglia’s column and observe Palin’s coverage during this week of her self-control of her media exposure, without thinking that it is she, not Obama who is on the ascendancy at the moment.

As I see it, Obama has been cut all his favors, while Palin got no slack. America loves a comeback. Stand aside for the Million Dollar Baby!

NEW THREAD

2008-11-12T20:25:00.000-05:00

NEW THREAD

In 2006, Wyoming Sen Craig Thomas won with 135,000...

2008-11-12T20:24:00.000-05:00

In 2006, Wyoming Sen Craig Thomas won with 135,000 votes - and he got 70% of the vote.

There is always a lower turnout in off year elections.

What's left to countMore than 44,000 have been cou...

2008-11-12T20:22:00.000-05:00

What's left to count

More than 44,000 have been counted so far, per an update on Anchorage's local public radio station just now.

Per the Anchorage Daily News in its news alert announcing the 3-vote lead by Begich:

The elections division still has over 10,000 ballots left to count today and thousands more through next week, but the latest numbers show Mark Begich leading Sen. Ted Stevens 125,019 to 125,016.

The new numbers, reflecting nearly 43,000 absentee ballots counted today, are from all over the state. Election night, Ted Stevens led the Democratic Begich by about 3,000 votes.

The state today is counting a total of about 60,000 absentee and questioned ballots.

The Division of Elections said it expects to count roughly 35,000 additional absentee and questioned ballots over the next week.

Relax, folks, there's still 10,000 votes to count ...

2008-11-12T20:16:00.000-05:00

Relax, folks, there's still 10,000 votes to count just today. And then there are still thousands more votes to count before it's all over.

"Blogger GayIthacan said... Come on. Some of y...

2008-11-12T20:14:00.001-05:00

"Blogger GayIthacan said...

Come on. Some of you people are NOT THINKING CLEARLY!!!!!

Most of them are NOT voting for a '6-time convicted felon'. )Well, 7 if you want to be accurate)

They are voting for a SENATE SEAT TO BE RETAINED BY A REPUBLICAN.

The ONLY way they can vote to KEEP THE CHANCES ALIVE that a Republican wins the seat is to ELECT STEVENS. That way, the ONLY way the Democrats can win the seat is to win a special election WITH ANOTHER REpublican candidate on the ticket.

They are obviously voting for PARTY, not CANDIDATE.

It really isn;t all that difficult a concept to grasp."

That wouldn't explain why Stevens won the primary when he was under indictment and scheduled for trial on SEVEN (corrected!) felony counts!

Try and run that one by voters anywhere in the lower 48: "It's true that I will shortly stand trial on 7 counts of felony bribery and influence peddling, but vote for me anyway!"

In almost any other state a candidate under felony indictment would NOT win a primary!

It's not scheming by AK Republicans to hold a seat -- it's Stevens loyalists voting for him because he's been an AK institution for decades. They just don't care that he's corrupt if he continues to bring the federal dollars to AK.

He's built up a lot of loyalty over the years with people due to his endless patronage and earmarks he delivered, and they aren't going to easily turn on him over a little case of bribery!

OK I overstated Berkowitz losses. Still...In one u...

2008-11-12T20:14:00.000-05:00

OK I overstated Berkowitz losses. Still...
In one update...
Begich gained 974 votes against Stevens.
Berkowitz lost 43 votes against Young.
That still seems odd to me!

This just in! Begich is up by THREE VOTES with 35...

2008-11-12T20:13:00.000-05:00

This just in! Begich is up by THREE VOTES with 35,000 left to count.

Wouldn't it be a supreme irony for Ted Stevens's career to end with a 3 vote loss?

That being said, I'd like to see a bit more daylight between the candidates after they're all counted.

Meanwhile, theuptake.org is live-blogging the Minn...

2008-11-12T20:12:00.000-05:00

Meanwhile, theuptake.org is live-blogging the Minnesota recount. According to recent comments the gap is now 204 after some upticks for everyone, but the results may not be reflected on the SoS page "until the State Canvassing Board accepts them next week." There are other relevant comments there---great junkie food! :-)

WV "irasta": an Apple music product that plays all-Marley, all the time...

Alaska has turned blue on CNN's Senate map of the ...

2008-11-12T20:11:00.001-05:00

Alaska has turned blue on CNN's Senate map of the state:

http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/individual/#mapSAK

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Stevens' Lead Shrinks to 971 Votes, With Many Yet ...

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^^ very nice 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵...

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情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,...

I like the fact that the Alaska Independent candid...

testing

Begich is now up by 814 votes. Alaska, you can sta...

STepper wrote: Always a great statistician, but so...

Why not revoke Alaskan statehood and revert it to ...

Andy JS, the way they count these in Alaska is to ...

My Alaskan source now says that Begich is up by 40...

A person reading the Enquirer calling me a moron!

Wow...PeteKent is a fucking moron. On another not...

Did anyone see Frontline last night?Lee Atwater wa...

I don’t think for a moment that Palin want the Sen...

NEW THREAD

In 2006, Wyoming Sen Craig Thomas won with 135,000...

What's left to countMore than 44,000 have been cou...

Relax, folks, there's still 10,000 votes to count ...

"Blogger GayIthacan said... Come on. Some of y...

OK I overstated Berkowitz losses. Still...In one u...

This just in! Begich is up by THREE VOTES with 35...

Meanwhile, theuptake.org is live-blogging the Minn...

Alaska has turned blue on CNN's Senate map of the ...

外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇 ...