Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Coleman for Governor?

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2009-10-12T03:42:56.481-04:00

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2009-08-28T02:21:40.144-04:00

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2009-08-03T23:17:04.014-04:00

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2009-07-13T22:20:49.681-04:00

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2009-07-13T22:20:15.521-04:00

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nkpolitics1279 said... Dike in Dairyland. I'm not...

2009-07-11T15:26:50.209-04:00

nkpolitics1279 said...
Dike in Dairyland.

I'm not sure Tammy Baldwin posts here, so I'm not sure who that post was addressed to if not to her.

And IF Tammy Baldwin posts here, I'm sure she didn't appreciate the demeaning manner in which she was addressed.

BTW, when referring to a female homosexual in such a condescending manner, the work is 'dyke'. Dike is a structure used to hold back water.

I had presumed that you were intelligent enough to know the difference. I guess that presumption was incorrect.

Mike in Maryland

My Blogger ID is http://www.blogger.com/profile/02848893412251095965

Dike in Dairyland. You could have mentioned David ...

2009-07-11T14:34:40.993-04:00

Dike in Dairyland. You could have mentioned David Bonior of MI. Bonior was an outgoing House Minority Whip when he ran for Governor.
Ehrlich,Riley,Sanford, were backbench members of the US House.

We also have to remember that before Pawlenty, Min...

2009-07-10T22:19:33.262-04:00

We also have to remember that before Pawlenty, Minnesota elected a limited-government, strict-separationist conservative as a third-party candidate as governor because they had become so frustrated with the Republicans and Democrats that they needed to change. Something like Ventura's election is virtually unheard of in modern politics, not because of his own personal political background but because nothing will galvanize the Republicans and Democrats to work together more than a viable third-party. A viable third-party is their greatest fear any they know it can rear its head once again.

Ventura once said that the GOP and the Dems were "Crips and Bloods in Brooks Brothers suits." We are now seeing just how right he was.

nkpolitics1279 said... US Senators have a higher r...

2009-07-10T17:44:44.183-04:00

nkpolitics1279 said...
US Senators have a higher rank than Governors and Governors have higher rank than US House members.

According to who? It is a perception of some that your assertion is true, but it is NOT a universal perception. It also varies from region to region, the size of the state's Congressional delegation, and the position that the Congressional member holds in Congress. I have a feeling that Speaker Pelosi feels she has much more power than Governor Schwarzenegger; I have a feeling that Majority Leader Steny Hoyer feels he has much more power than Governor O'Malley.

And speaking of Hoyer and thus Maryland, Congressman Ehrlich ran for, and won, the gubernatorial race in 2002, but that was part of his 'plan' to run for Senator and/or President. A friend of mine used to do lawn care for Ehrlich. Ehrlich was not shy in letting people know of his future political plans, and thus my friend heard a lot about Ehrlich's plans, which was to use the Governorship as a stepping stone for higher office (the 'executive experience' portion of the resume that GOOPers feel has to be checked by a candidate, otherwise they are not qualified).

Mike in Maryland

My Blogger ID is http://www.blogger.com/profile/02848893412251095965

Jeff was compelled to mention Murtha as part of th...

2009-07-10T16:02:13.156-04:00

Jeff was compelled to mention Murtha as part of the wingnut defence which I term "Dems do it, too!"

It is one of the last-resort "strategies" of the Right, and those employing it have little idea how much it undercuts their own ideological foundations.

Since Clinton left office, Republicans have portrayed themselves as both different and better than Democrats. The Republican Brand has been marketed as being more moral, patriotic, positive, "common-sense", credible, and more in line with "Real America's" values.

By employing the "Dems do it, too!" defence, they concede all of this ground, and settle for Democrats and Republicans being virtual equals.

And the two parties differ greatly in terms of their centres. The Republican Party is dominated by the very-Right fringe, while the Democratic Party is dominated by the moderates (much to the chagrin of the Left). Thus, those with views far out the mainstream find easy acceptance with in the Republican Party, while the Democratic equivalents are marginalised but accepted in the "Coalition Model" that the Party operates under.

The Republicans, with their "Corporate Model", see all Democrats as the same because their model enforces conformity of opinion and expression. The GOP is a bloc that will reliably vote as they are instructed, and their fortunes rise and fall as a bloc. This is how the Republicans were able to elect any drooling moron in 2002 and 2004, simply by labelling the candidate as part of the "Bush Team".

Independents and Democrats, however, see a different picture. The "Coalition Model" provides a smorgasbord of candidates, often ill at ease with the Party label. They neither rise nor fall as one, nor hold the same specific beliefs.
This is a curse and a blessing for the Party. We already see that constituencies that supported Obama may not support specific Democratic candidates. On the other hand, "bad" candidates in one part of the country tend not to affect other candidates negatively, either.

So the "Dems do it, too!" defence does not only undermine the GOP's message, but it is also essentially clueless since it assumes a non-existent uniformity within the Democratic Party.

The mere existence of the "Blue Dogs" contradicts the inane implied assertion of Democratic conformity that the "Dems do it, too!" defence relies upon. Wingnuts cheer on Democratic divisions, while simultaneously asserting the Party's uniformity.

It's completely disingenuous, but they employ the defence freely. It's all they've got.

A member of the US House of Representative running...

2009-07-10T13:53:24.074-04:00

A member of the US House of Representative running for Governor is totally different from a US Senator running for Governor.
With the exception of AK,DE,MT,ND,SD,VT and WY with have At Large US House Seats. US Senators have a higher rank than Governors and Governors have higher rank than US House members. Looking at the US House members that ran for Governor.
Look at the current Governors that were previously US House members.
Alabama-Bob Riley.
Idaho- Butch Otter.
Louisiana- Bobby Jindal
Maine- John Baldacci
Nevada- Jim Gibbons.
Ohio- Ted Strickland.

Jeff wrote: "And Todd, Keep trying to clarify what...

2009-07-10T12:51:18.004-04:00

Jeff wrote:
"And Todd,
Keep trying to clarify what you meant. Tax cuts were not a "new idea" in 1980. They had been successfully tried by, among others, JFK. I guess he didn't get he memo that tax cuts didn't work."

Thanks, I will clarify.
My post was already getting a bit long, and the remarks you chose to attack were the pre-emptive reply to the usual conservative line of attack.

My point about tax cuts and deregulation being new with Reagan was actually referring to the way that tax cuts and deregulation had been pitched by Republicans in 1980.

Tax cuts, by way of the mysterious Laffer Curve, were supposed to increase tax revenue. This was the concept that Bush Sr. called "voodoo economics" at the time. Ever since then, Republicans have considered tax cuts to be without fiscal consequences, because they can simply simply contend that tax revenues would have been lower if taxes have remained higher.

GWB's tax cuts cost the Treasury $1.8 TRILLION in revenue.

This supply-side economic theory is different from the other "new" theory of Reagan, which is "trickle-down economics". Instead, those employing the "trickle-down" theory merely dusted off the rationales that Hoover used to support the plutocracy and presented it as something "new".

Deregulation, as you point out, was not invented by the Reagan Administration. However, the idea that all regulation is inherently bad was a new idea, at least in the 20th century.

Reagan proposed what we did not need meat inspectors, for example, because any company that sold tainted meat would be punished by the free market. Wilfully naive, he failed to consider how "the free market" would determine if people were getting sick from tainted product at all, and if so, how the market could distinguish one company as the source of tainted product from all of the others without records and inspections. The idea of resellers and generic brands also escaped his intellectual grasp, as there would be no paper trail nor consequence for the original company in these cases.

So this level of antipathy toward regulation on an ideological basis was new at the time.

As to whether Republicans are "rooting for" or merely "expecting" economic failure, the point is that they obviously think that economic failure improves their electoral chances. I am saying that if voters are starving, and you propose to eliminate the metaphorical soup kitchen in order that they can be "more free", then you might have a bit of a hard sell.

You, however, choose to see this as "nonsense".

Jeffy? Jeffy? Over here, Jeffy. What connection...

2009-07-10T02:20:44.371-04:00

Jeffy?

Jeffy?

Over here, Jeffy.

What connection does the investigation of Pennsylvania's Congressman Murtha have with Coleman's possible gubernatorial run in Minnesota, and how that investigation might be a factor in Coleman's possible campaign in Minnesota?

Last I heard, Representative Murtha had no interest in running for governor (of Pennsylvania OR Minnesota), even if he is legally qualified to serve as governor of either state.

Besides, I believe Congressman Murtha might consider that such a campaign would be a step down the political ladder, with no upside after taking that step down. Usually when a Congressman or Senator steps down from their seat on Capital Hill to run for Governor of THEIR HOME STATE, it's to 'enhance' their 'executive leadership credentials' to enhance their resume for a future run for President (see Pete Wilson, Senator-CA; Mark Sanford, Congressman-SC). Sometimes it works (although I can't cite any where it did), usually it doesn't (see Pete Wilson, Senator-CA; Mark Sanford, Congressman-SC).

Now why don't you try to keep your comments directed at least somewhat towards the topic at hand (Coleman for Governor?), or just run along?

Of course, we can always expect a TROLL to try to hijack a thread, and divert it into one of their 'talking points' when the discussion starts to hit close to home, ESPECIALLY when GOOPer hypocrisy is, or is going to be, further exposed or discussed.

Mike in Maryland

My Blogger ID is http://www.blogger.com/profile/02848893412251095965

Mike in Maryland, That scandal investigation is ve...

2009-07-09T21:59:26.683-04:00

Mike in Maryland,
That scandal investigation is very interesting. I'm sure you're following the efforts to drain the Murtha cesspool closely. No?

And Todd,
Keep trying to clarify what you meant. Tax cuts were not a "new idea" in 1980. They had been successfully tried by, among others, JFK. I guess he didn't get he memo that tax cuts didn't work. And as for deregulation, two of its champions in the 1970s were Ted Kennedy and even Carter (who executed the biggest deregulation of them all - the airline industry). The rest of your post was even worse nonsense. Particularly this idea that the GOP is somehow "rooting" for failure. No. They are convinced that Obama's policies are courting failure. That is why they espouse other policies. Likewise, the Dems didn't root for failure in Iraq, they expected it. What about this don't you understand.

And as for economic failure, we don't need to root for it - its happening. You can smell the panic from the White House economic brain trust (so-called). I see two possibilities. A killer double dip recession, with high unemployment. Or, a recovery, but accompanied by inflation. Both are political killers.

I echo the first post by Jeffrey and the last one ...

2009-07-09T21:08:24.314-04:00

I echo the first post by Jeffrey and the last one by e3323 about Coleman's losing to the former wrestler and the former SNL writer. It should be noted that Ventura did hold an elective office prior to becoming governor. He was the mayor of Brooklyn Park for 4 years in the early 1990s.

Coleman's loss marks the defeat of the second of what I have described as recent "accidental" senators. That is, the senators who can attribute their election in great part to those from the opposing party who died in tragic plane crashes. Coleman would have lost to Paul Wellstone in 2002 had Wellstone not died 11 days before the election. And Missouri's Jim Talent won in 2002 in great part due to Mel Carnahan's death in a 2000 plane crash. Mel was replaced by his wife Jean via interim appointment but had to run for the rest of her husband's term in 2002. Had Mel survived, the special election would not have occurred and Carnahan's seat would not have been up for another election until 2006 (when Talent lost to McCaskill).

Something that is still looming in Coleman's futur...

2009-07-09T18:43:00.014-04:00

Something that is still looming in Coleman's future is the FBI investigation into his ties to businessman Nasser Kazeminy, and the possible funneling of money to pay for renovations to his house. The investigation has been somewhat quiet, but it IS bubbling under the surface.

The only way I see this NOT hurting Coleman is a quick end, and a very clear, definitive conclusion that the charges were motivated by and for some outside reason, something I don't see happening.

From what I understand about Kazeminy, a lot of people are very suspicious of him, and even an 'all-clear' report from the FBI wouldn't exactly clear Coleman's dealings with Kazeminy in many people's mind.

Mike in Maryland

My Blogger ID is http://www.blogger.com/profile/02848893412251095965

beavis wrote: "Yes, if the economy worsens over th...

2009-07-09T18:34:32.528-04:00

beavis wrote:
"Yes, if the economy worsens over the next 2 years it will hurt the dems, but that doesn't necessarily mean the hapless GOP will gain anything."

You don't have to be a member in good standing of the GOP to vote for a Republican candidate in a GE. The Party itself repels people, and it has a horrible habit of ignoring everyone who is outside of it, but I concede that there will be Independents disappointed that miracles didn't happen virtually overnight.

But allow me to clarify what I meant.

The point is that economic downturns during Republican Administrations have more of an adverse effect on the Party's chances than would be the case in a Democratic Administration, because the Republican "solutions" always involve more pain for those suffering the most.

In general, Republican candidates in mid-terms tend to stand or fall as one, depending on how the "brand" is perceived at that moment. We saw in 2006 and 2008 that Republican candidates' attempts to distance themselves from their Administration is not credible to the voting public. For better or for worse, the voters strongly tend to see the Republicans as a bloc.

As more and more voters see family, friends, or themselves fall back on the "safety net", the Right's cries of "socialism" and "welfare state" exhibit diminishing returns.

So, for the wingnuts, this is a case of "be careful what you wish for" when predicting and praying for economic gloom and doom.

And for those who insist on invoking the example of Reagan/Carter, I would note that the ideas of "deregulation" and tax cuts were new and unproven then. Those ideas have now been thoroughly tested and shown to be a sham. The "base" still believes in those ideas, but that's it.

Its kind of ironic if you think about it. Norm Co...

2009-07-09T18:28:43.732-04:00

Its kind of ironic if you think about it. Norm Coleman was able to beat a former presidential nominee but could not manage to beat a WWF wrestler or an SNL comedian, nether of which had held any elected office prior to defeating him.

Looming Deficit—How Much Does It Matter? The eno...

2009-07-09T17:54:59.632-04:00

Looming Deficit—How Much Does It Matter?

The enormity of the deficit has been seized upon by the GOP as the only issue they hope will bear fruit for them in the 2010 elections. But is it really so awful and unparalleled, as is being claimed throughout the MSM and wingnutosphere? Even someone as supposedly well-informed as Roger Altman declared yesterday on Charlie Rose that the current deficits, in terms of percentage of the economy, are unprecedented.

Too bad Altman didn’t bother to read up on the subject before opening his mouth. Unprecedented my ass. The graph at the bottom is the instructive one, which shows the public debt (red line) to have been exceeded plenty of times before the current situation, starting during WWII and well into the late 1950s, then again under Reagan.

But of course the GOP never lets facts get in the way of a good rant, especially one that finds resonance within the MSM.

Sorry, wrong MNIndependent link in the post above....

2009-07-09T17:52:07.606-04:00

Sorry, wrong MNIndependent link in the post above. Here's the right one:
http://minnesotaindependent.com/22752/another-post-recount-poll-47-percent-want-franken-in-senate-coleman-out-of-court

The economy could work in either Party's favour. ...

2009-07-09T17:50:47.525-04:00

The economy could work in either Party's favour.

I disagree, the economy tanked on the GOP's watch and tanked because of their deregulation.

No one with an ounce of brains trusts them on the economy anymore, and likely never will.

Given that the GOP have offered exactly zero credible ideas since the election have only hurt them worse. Rehashing deregulation and tax cuts so the wealthy will not get it down. It is like throwing more jet fuel on a plane whose engine caught fire.

Yes, if the economy worsens over the next 2 years it will hurt the dems, but that doesn't necessarily mean the hapless GOP will gain anything. Especially since to be allowed under the GOP tent you must follow their principles 100%, many of those turn off rational voters.

Random Person: "I like the GOP's stance on the economy, but I think gays should have equal rights and torture is immoral"

GOP: "Go away traitor"

Random Person: "OK, I won't vote for anyone in your party"

That strategy backfired in 2006 and 2008, and won't work in 2010 and beyond.

Katharriet… Thanks!

2009-07-09T17:43:07.081-04:00

Katharriet…

Thanks!

From Pragmatus: "I don’t recall seeing any polls t...

2009-07-09T17:08:46.435-04:00

From Pragmatus: "I don’t recall seeing any polls that specifically reran the race though."

I vaguely remembered one, and did some digging through old rss feeds. There was a January 09 Research 2000 DailyKos poll here: http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2009/1/10/133747/921/913/682505.

It asked "if you could vote again for U.S. Senate" who would you vote for.
Franken got 43%, Coleman 40%, Barkley 15% and 2% undecided.

This article: http://minnesotaindependent.com/22591/surveyusa-kstp-poll-finds-voters-more-fond-of-recount-challenge links to it, and to a Dec. 08 Survey USA poll that I can't find elsewhere.

Is there any comparison of Coleman's projected per...

2009-07-09T17:03:18.836-04:00

Is there any comparison of Coleman's projected performance as compared to a generic republican's performance against the same opponents?

The economy could work in either Party's favour. ...

2009-07-09T16:52:40.355-04:00

The economy could work in either Party's favour.

In times of economic uncertainty, more people see the need for a "safety net" and see doing "something" as better than doing nothing. Likewise, companies running at a loss are not primarily concerned about taxes.

The social Darwinism of the Republican party could be a bigger liability than Obama's putative "failure".

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Coleman for Governor?

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艾葳酒店經紀公司提供專業的酒店經紀, 飯局小姐,領檯人員,領台,傳播妹,或者想要到台北酒店、林森北路...

自慰套,自慰套,自慰器,情趣,情趣,視訊交友,充氣娃娃,AV,按摩棒,電動按摩棒,情趣按摩棒,按摩棒...

幼児教室の春季講習 幼児教室の講習の掛け持ちについて意見を聞かせてください。 留学なら、DEOW留...

ダンボール段ボール箱、板)・プチプチ（エアキャップ）・梱包資材（用品）の激安通販(販売)専門店です。...

nkpolitics1279 said... Dike in Dairyland. I'm not...

Dike in Dairyland. You could have mentioned David ...

We also have to remember that before Pawlenty, Min...

nkpolitics1279 said... US Senators have a higher r...

Jeff was compelled to mention Murtha as part of th...

A member of the US House of Representative running...

Jeff wrote: "And Todd, Keep trying to clarify what...

Jeffy? Jeffy? Over here, Jeffy. What connection...

Mike in Maryland, That scandal investigation is ve...

I echo the first post by Jeffrey and the last one ...

Something that is still looming in Coleman's futur...

beavis wrote: "Yes, if the economy worsens over th...

Its kind of ironic if you think about it. Norm Co...

Looming Deficit—How Much Does It Matter? The eno...

Sorry, wrong MNIndependent link in the post above....

The economy could work in either Party's favour. ...

Katharriet… Thanks!

From Pragmatus: "I don’t recall seeing any polls t...

Is there any comparison of Coleman's projected per...

The economy could work in either Party's favour. ...

幼児教室の春季講習幼児教室の講習の掛け持ちについて意見を聞かせてください。留学なら、DEOW留...