tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4257917002416684161.post5923766077775455692..comments2010-02-02T16:11:34.471-05:00Nate Silverhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08334852368748204318noreply@blogger.comBlogger27125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4257917002416684161.post-79719393235098705202008-09-07T14:32:52.631-04:002008-09-07T14:32:52.631-04:00".....I think Palin's speech will be instinctively unappealing to other whole demographics of voters, including particuarly working-class men (among whom there may be a misogyny factor)...."<BR/><BR/>She's polling very well with them. You don't know any more about that group than Barry "cling to guns and religion" Obama does.<BR/><BR/>"... and professional post-menopausal women....."<BR/><BR/>She is doing less well with them. Because she didn't go to Harvard. :-P<BR/><BR/>Your analysis reassures me. You've gotten so much wrong in the first 2 paragraphs that I am further encouraged that McCain/Palin will win.Yehudithttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17436278384661171716noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4257917002416684161.post-91302051662672866492008-09-07T14:26:56.421-04:002008-09-07T14:26:56.421-04:00"....It was also, as one of my commentors astutely noted, a speech written by a man and for a man, but delivered by a woman, which produces a certain amount of cognitive dissonance....."<BR/><BR/>You lost me here. I'm a woman. I had no cognitive dissonance at all. You don't know any opinionated sarcastic women? I know bunches. Sarah Palin not only sounds normal to me, but to many many commenters I have been reading the past few days, who describe her as real, ordinary, as someone wrote, "delivered her lines like she was joking around with the meter maid."<BR/><BR/>Also, Alaska may be exotic, But her pioneer woman persona is not exotic to anyone from a western or southwestern state. I'm from Texas. Read up on Gov. Anne Richards, esp her quips at the expense of GWB during their gubernatorial race. Or Molly Ivins. You will hear a tone very like Sarah Palin.<BR/><BR/>In fact I am surprised more people haven't compared her to Richards yet.Yehudithttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17436278384661171716noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4257917002416684161.post-82252359422865094732008-09-04T18:44:35.312-04:002008-09-04T18:44:35.312-04:00I just can't believe you admit to drinking merlot. what kind of elite are you, anyway? Has Sideways taught you nothing?rsdrinks@gmail.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07374947995977958309noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4257917002416684161.post-81329279286079870662008-09-04T18:23:23.431-04:002008-09-04T18:23:23.431-04:00Not many here are clued in to the real media dynamic:<BR/><BR/>Palin candidacy announced, she is the new kid on the block, some negative history, huge wave of negative stories.<BR/><BR/>Palin will speak, will she fall flat on her face (see previous story), bar is set very, very low.<BR/><BR/>Palin speaks, did not fall flat on her face, must have hit a home run, huge wave of stories on that.<BR/><BR/>Palin post-speech, bar has now been set very high by 'home run' speech, scandals do not magically all go away, she has to hold a press conference and sounds less polished, she still holds wildly unpopular issue postions, press turns negative.<BR/><BR/>All that has nothing -- Nothing -- to do with her merits. It is the roller coaster ride the media sets up repeatedly to maintain interest in the "stories" they tell. <BR/><BR/>What does it all mean: another wave on Palin -- negative -- will be rolling within two weeks.Observerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02763132849878431992noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4257917002416684161.post-75656564674425501672008-09-04T17:08:36.685-04:002008-09-04T17:08:36.685-04:00MidPointMan,<BR/>It is the fact that it was before the speech that worries me. Nate argued she did not have the standing among voters to attack Obama, but the Rasmussen poll does not support that view. However, it is my suspicion that the speech will hurt her among independent men. We will find out in the coming days.Mime Narratorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16821398114907228276noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4257917002416684161.post-86978051997444658702008-09-04T17:05:09.056-04:002008-09-04T17:05:09.056-04:00Hi guys. This is running on Drudge right now:<BR/><BR/>PALIN RAISES MONEY -- FOR OBAMA! **Exclusive** Obama scores $8 million since Palin's speech from over 130,000 donors - on pace to hit $10 million by the time John McCain hits stage, campaign says... Developing...<BR/><BR/>As a Midwestern, rifle-owning, ex-community organizing mom of two, I can only say: awesome.S.G.R.http://www.blogger.com/profile/10889278318065818224noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4257917002416684161.post-55333887689356133192008-09-04T16:53:35.111-04:002008-09-04T16:53:35.111-04:00CBS 42-42 DOES NOT INCLUDE PALIN SPEECH...<BR/><BR/>This is DAY 1 only.MidPointManhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13126418421444294086noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4257917002416684161.post-13039421415569345362008-09-04T16:52:39.937-04:002008-09-04T16:52:39.937-04:00CBS News...IT IS TIED.<BR/><BR/>8 point lead...gone.<BR/><BR/>WOW!<BR/><BR/>McCain has yet to go tonight.<BR/><BR/>RESULTS DO NOT INCLUDE THE SPEECH.<BR/><BR/>AMAZING.<BR/><BR/>Nate, you should have included that adjustment. You overreacted.MidPointManhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13126418421444294086noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4257917002416684161.post-64792846594548580972008-09-04T16:47:27.170-04:002008-09-04T16:47:27.170-04:00mime - <BR/><BR/>Remember, that is <B>before</B> the speech.<BR/><BR/>Unaffiliated voters are what really matters anyway.<BR/><BR/>...and she is the VP he is at the top of the ticket.<BR/><BR/>Anyway you cut it, it is bad for Obama, especially after all the hatchet jobs they did on Palin.<BR/><BR/>There were plenty of Republicans who were not sure about her...they are converts as of 18 hours ago.MidPointManhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13126418421444294086noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4257917002416684161.post-51824543013616392042008-09-04T16:44:31.561-04:002008-09-04T16:44:31.561-04:00mime - <BR/><BR/>You are right. Medicare makes Social Security and the deficit look like spare change left on the night stand.<BR/><BR/>Medicare is the whole friggin' house.<BR/><BR/>$56 trillion in unfunded liabilities...that is a big pothole to fill.<BR/><BR/>Blasting the rich won't work, they find ways to avoid excessive taxation.<BR/><BR/>That is what the Dems do not realize. Compared to the 1970s, the top 1% pay a higher share of total taxes today than they did in 1979, and it is not close.<BR/><BR/>Why? Rich people are not stupid, otherwise they would not be rich.<BR/><BR/>They do things to avoid taxes. Those things usually are suboptimal ways to allocate capital.<BR/><BR/>They buy offshore boats registered abroad. They buy diamonds, gold, real estate shelters...<BR/><BR/>Instead of stock, which is used to invest in business to create jobs.<BR/><BR/>One reason the "rich got richer" when tax rates declined is because they started to declare their true income on tax returns.<BR/><BR/>Income came out of hiding. It is that simple.MidPointManhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13126418421444294086noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4257917002416684161.post-53784737856062230982008-09-04T16:43:30.582-04:002008-09-04T16:43:30.582-04:00DaWolf,<BR/>Apparently those numbers (42% - 37%) were among "unaffiliated" voters, something not made clear in the initial release. Among all voters, 49% think Obama has more experience, 39% think Palin.Mime Narratorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16821398114907228276noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4257917002416684161.post-48691479029523213982008-09-04T16:37:30.808-04:002008-09-04T16:37:30.808-04:00All of this whining about the "Present" votes is a bit hollow.<BR/><BR/>This attack would not mean anything, anything at all if Obama were more direct and decisive.<BR/><BR/>When he breaks into nuance mode, it is disturbing. It is not that he is necessarily wrong in his musings, it just gives the impression that he is thinking on the fly...<BR/><BR/>...or more succinctly that he has not really thought about these things before.<BR/><BR/>If you have not put the thinking against the issue, a sharp, crisp answer is not possible.<BR/><BR/>People equate nuance to lack of thought or lack of leadership.<BR/><BR/>If he starts to sound more direct and decisive, that attack will not work.<BR/><BR/>Let's see what O'Reilly does with him.MidPointManhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13126418421444294086noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4257917002416684161.post-46017436881010212652008-09-04T16:29:42.003-04:002008-09-04T16:29:42.003-04:00Cindy McCain said there would be no negative campaigning -- <A HREF="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_rKdf67sIpY" REL="nofollow">Great Listen</A><BR/><BR/>She seemed pretty psyched when Palin went to town on Obamabconnolly01http://www.blogger.com/profile/16628176071418449641noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4257917002416684161.post-63084095129364511242008-09-04T16:23:22.631-04:002008-09-04T16:23:22.631-04:00Just in case you were wondering, the reason Palin has an 86% approval rating in Alaska is that she enjoyed the timing of giant oil windfall profits that sent $10k checks to her constituencies. Additionally, when you consider the cesspool of republican corruption that preceded her makes her own scandals ("troopergate", etc) pale by comparison.<BR/><BR/>The real story that needs to be told today is how many outrageous lies, half-truths, and smears she was able to put out on the airwaves unchallenged. Team Obama needs to get the surrogates out on the news ASAP to set the record straight on his tax plan, her pork barrel nonsense (bridge to nowhere flip-flop), and the indecent suggestion that Obama is hoping for defeat in Iraq.<BR/><BR/>Another point about Palin's speech. Both McCain and Biden also have sons serving in Iraq-- yet they are smart enough and decent enough to not parade them for political gain. Let's not forget that the Taliban had serious plans about trying to capture Prince Harry when serving in Afghanistan. Don't think that AIQ wouldn't jump on the opportunity to get their hands on a presidential family member.Matthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06560507418553842814noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4257917002416684161.post-45859669011825674722008-09-04T15:41:39.171-04:002008-09-04T15:41:39.171-04:00PeteKent,<BR/>I agree that Keynesian models are outmoded, but crowding out is a feature of most neoclassical models as well. True, deficits at the current levels are not a huge concern, but the real threat is the looming unfunded liabilities of social security and medicare over the coming decades.Mime Narratorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16821398114907228276noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4257917002416684161.post-90691894794838980452008-09-04T15:40:35.120-04:002008-09-04T15:40:35.120-04:00finbarr - <BR/><BR/>How was the speech divisive? Who did it divide from whom?<BR/><BR/>Biden's response? I did not hear "Middle Class" which is clearly a divisive term. It pits people against each other.<BR/><BR/>Ironic that by this measure, Obama's speeches are highly divisive. It is a stew of one interest group after another.<BR/><BR/>"Equal Work, Equal Pay" - despite the fact that what Obama said is a lie, it is divisive.<BR/><BR/>You pit everyone against "Big Oil" or "Predatory Lenders" or "The Rich".<BR/><BR/>Democrats are the most divisive in this cycle than they ever have been. You simply do not compute he language as divisive.<BR/><BR/>You think about it this way, what percentage of the words are applicable to only one group but not another...if that is the case, it is divisive.<BR/><BR/>It highlights our differences rather than our shared values.<BR/><BR/>Democrats being for Unity is the the BIG LIE.<BR/><BR/>You need racism and sexism and classism to survive. You need to portray everyone as somebody else's victim to win.<BR/><BR/>It is classic social warfare with the only goal being more power, typically for Lawyers who want to be the well-paid referees.<BR/><BR/>...it is a scam.MidPointManhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13126418421444294086noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4257917002416684161.post-67841939532433529732008-09-04T15:38:21.486-04:002008-09-04T15:38:21.486-04:00I find it much more enjoyable to read the posts on the site if you ignore the rants... I really wish there was just an ignore button, so I didn't have to scroll as much though...I view it very similarly to last night's speeches...if only I could have ignored the 30 minute long rant at the very end...I think it was someone named Falin or Pawlenty or something.beowulfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01104018426034639044noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4257917002416684161.post-6993389204919802142008-09-04T15:37:47.954-04:002008-09-04T15:37:47.954-04:00What does Howard Stern think of Sarah Palin?nkpolitics1279http://www.blogger.com/profile/17806408652642806236noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4257917002416684161.post-81349154325595596522008-09-04T15:35:29.634-04:002008-09-04T15:35:29.634-04:00petekent -- your rock star is on the cover of the National Enquirer.evehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00951140643141416234noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4257917002416684161.post-62567004302628687292008-09-04T15:33:51.890-04:002008-09-04T15:33:51.890-04:00Obama is not going to win Virginia, not anymore.<BR/><BR/>Scratch Colorado, not in the cards.<BR/><BR/>These are 2 western reformers, Colorado will go with them.<BR/><BR/>It is inevitable, despite current polling, which is obsolete anyway.MidPointManhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13126418421444294086noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4257917002416684161.post-33575133981547958362008-09-04T15:28:07.948-04:002008-09-04T15:28:07.948-04:00Obama-Biden Ticket wins all of the <BR/>New England States(CT,MA,ME,NH,RI,VT)<BR/>Mid Atlantic States(DC,DE,MD,NJ,NY)<BR/>Upper Midwest (IA,IL,MN,WI)<BR/>Pacific West Coast(CA,HI,OR,WA)<BR/><BR/>McCain-Palin Ticket wins all of the Gulf Coast States.(AL,LA,MS,TX)<BR/>Appalachian States(AR,KY,MO,OK,TN,WV)<BR/>Prarie States (KS,NE,ND,SD)<BR/>Big Sky (AK,ID,MT,UT,WY)<BR/><BR/>The swing Areas- SouthWest-<BR/>McCain-Palin- AZ<BR/>Obama-Biden NM,CO<BR/><BR/>RustBelt<BR/>McCain-Palin- IN<BR/>Obama-Biden- PA,MI<BR/><BR/>South Coast<BR/>McCain-Palin GA,NC,SC,<BR/>Obama-Biden VAnkpolitics1279http://www.blogger.com/profile/17806408652642806236noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4257917002416684161.post-46945952735090918642008-09-04T15:21:39.089-04:002008-09-04T15:21:39.089-04:00I feel that Obama's speech that "there are no red states or blue states, only a United States" will have resonated with moderates last night when listening to Sarah Palin speak. The divisive nature of that speech means that what had become a bit of a campaign slogan will now have renewed vigor and meaning. Obama can now take the high ground on the need to rise above this - and he can do so because he has laid the ground work with this message over the last four years.Finbarrhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01713847018054746622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4257917002416684161.post-13212016375754932852008-09-04T15:12:14.449-04:002008-09-04T15:12:14.449-04:00it was so nice and intelligent w/out pete yesterday<BR/><BR/>do us a favor and don't foam at the mouth quite so much<BR/><BR/>everyone else- don't feed the trollsprairiecommhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15820178541097552322noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4257917002416684161.post-58869244549530355422008-09-04T15:11:30.646-04:002008-09-04T15:11:30.646-04:00No becky, Media Curves' Glenn Kessler made it clear that Palin moved the numbers in an extraordiary way. Biden is a boring old white guy, please don't cinfuse him with the new feminist icon, Sarah Palin!PeteKenthttp://profile.typekey.com/PeteKent/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4257917002416684161.post-23672017427157984262008-09-04T15:08:50.944-04:002008-09-04T15:08:50.944-04:00Matthew H:<BR/><BR/>I am, sorry, son, but America has lived with far bigger deficts for years and we have thrived under them.<BR/><BR/>I am afraid, young man, if you bothered to take a economics course you would learn that Keynesian economics and the crowding out effect are just passe.<BR/><BR/>If the deficts were as bad for the econmy as you suggest, then we would have sky high interest rates and that would be bad for the economy.<BR/><BR/>Milton Freidman had the last laugh: we are all monetarists now.PeteKenthttp://profile.typekey.com/PeteKent/noreply@blogger.com