Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Obama on Offense in Florida

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2009-09-11T07:36:04.135-04:00

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2009-02-15T02:53:00.000-05:00

CO is a must win state for Obama? I totally disag...

2008-07-30T22:44:00.000-04:00

CO is a must win state for Obama?

I totally disagree. There are a number of scenarios that get him there without CO. Of course, its a nice state to have.

I'm liking FL more. It is absolutely a must win state for McCain. There is really no plausible way that McCain can lose Florida and win the election. Obama would only have to win 1 of the other 10 tossup states listed on RCP.

So far, McCain hasn't spent anything there. He's got to spend money there. I'm convinced that if Obama has Florida to himself, he wins the election. If McCain has to spend a lot to defend Florida, its a pyrhhic victory. Its really a win-win for Obama.

I love the fact that the polls have tightened this much in Florida. If McCain still led by five, McCain could take a reasonably safe bet and ignore FL. I don't think he can anymore.

If Obama wins Florida- The election is over. Barac...

2008-07-30T18:41:00.000-04:00

If Obama wins Florida- The election is over. Barack Obama is the next President of the US.
Obama wins CA,NY,IL,NJ,MA,WA,MD,MN,WI,CT,IA,OR,NM,HI,ME,RI,DE,VT,and DC.(base States) plus CO(a must win State for Obama)and VA(Tim Kaine as his VP runningmate. = 271 ev. If he does not win Florida- He has to win PA and NV.(270).

Oh yeah... I would feel very safe with the threat ...

2008-07-30T17:51:00.000-04:00

Oh yeah... I would feel very safe with the threat of Iran... eliminated.

Yeah- because Iraq was so simple attacking a larger country with a bigger army while we currently are still engaged in Iraq and Afghanistan (where we already have too few troops) would make Iran a very easy war. Americans love the Iraq war so much that we are just craving another war just as disastrous huh?

Obama is a great leader, he has a strategy that ha...

2008-07-30T17:49:00.000-04:00

Obama is a great leader, he has a strategy that has proved very well in the whole campaign. Please support Obama, visit WHYOBAMA08.oRG!!

McCain put all his eggs in a basket when it comes ...

2008-07-30T17:29:00.000-04:00

McCain put all his eggs in a basket when it comes to Penn, man he is trying to saturate that state just to end up losing it. I see Obama slowly fairing better in Florida, I was pretty convinced McCain would win this state, I still think he might but it will be interesting to watch.

Darien,Its amazing to me how people can take their...

2008-07-30T17:00:00.000-04:00

Darien,

Its amazing to me how people can take their individual experiences and translate them to the whole country. You were at the Nevada caucus (not Vegas I'm presuming) and you saw a lot of mormons voting. You think that will somehow help McCain win anywhere else. Really funny. Obama won 9-1 in my caucus in Seattle but I don't translate that into support anywhere else.

Mormons make up a negligible portion in Nevada and Colorado. They make up an absurdly small proportion in almost every other swing state.

Give me one good reason why Nevada will not come down to the Vegas metro area?

Give me one good reason why Vegas will consider McCain seriously given the importance of the Yucca and economy issues?

Bush won Nevada by holding Kerry's Clark county margin to 5, but that was during far better economic times.

I wanna see another Indiana poll. It seems like i...

2008-07-30T16:55:00.000-04:00

I wanna see another Indiana poll. It seems like it's been forever, and the previous results have been tantalizingly close.

Our military is all voluntary... amazing with all ...

2008-07-30T16:49:00.000-04:00

Our military is all voluntary... amazing with all the democrats attempts to reinstate the draft.

We won't need an army to eliminate the Iran threat. Israel will do it by air with the help of the U.S. and our allies.

Pete: Typical offshore development times are five...

2008-07-30T16:44:00.000-04:00

Pete: Typical offshore development times are five years from leasing to production. But right now all the drilling ships are booked up. Plus any legislation would no doubt allow states to keep their waters closed if they so choose, meaning a state-level fight even after national policy changes. Plus likely lawsuits on environmental impacts .... I'd say seven years is either realistic or optimistic. For ANWR, the estimates I've seen are ten years, I think because a lot of work can only be done in the winter when the tundra is frozen.

I actually support expanded drilling on balance-of-payments and security grounds, not to lower prices. Prices won't go down by much, and not at all for several years. Or rather they won't rise quite as high. Oil is running short, oil exports even more so (exporting countries can afford to subsidize growing domestic use even as the volume of their exports falls, because the price is rising faster).

And the recent drop in oil/gas prices is due to two things: gasoline inventories have been higher than expected the past couple of weeks, and the Bush administration looks like it's ready to start talking to Iran (thus reducing the fear premium).

I want to talk about Nevada.Obama has apparently y...

2008-07-30T16:30:00.000-04:00

I want to talk about Nevada.

Obama has apparently yet to start spending serious dollars in Nevada and the polls are already showing it as tied.

I have a tough time seeing how he can possibly lose there. There has been a lot of talk about mormons and how they'll help McCain, particularly with Romney. They make up 7% of the population.

To a much greater degree than previous elections, Nevada is an urban state. An overwhelmingly large amount of the population lives in the Las Vegas metro area.

There are two major local issues Obama can advertise on there. Does anybody know if McCain has anything particular to advertise on there? I don't.

The housing crash has decimated Vegas' economy. Foreclosures on a major issue. Yucca mountain is also a major issue. I'm not sure if Vegas residents realize that McCain supports Yucca and Obama opposes it, but I can guarantee you they'll know by the end of the campaign.

Expect Obama to win Clark county and McCain to win the rest of the state. It doesn't matter. Clark county is where all the people are.

When's the next Florida poll coming out? It's been...

2008-07-30T16:28:00.000-04:00

When's the next Florida poll coming out? It's been a long time since the last one on July 23rd. If it shows Obama ahead by 5% or more it could make this a Democrat state in the prediction tables.

"Oh yeah... I would feel very safe with the threat...

2008-07-30T16:27:00.000-04:00

"Oh yeah... I would feel very safe with the threat of Iran... eliminated."

Is yet another war part of McCain's "Endless War" campaign strategy? Do you wonder why younger voters are flocking to Obama? Dying in another war is not that appealing to the people who would actually have to fight it.

BTW, what army would you use to attack Iran?

One thing to keep in mind about advertising this e...

2008-07-30T16:20:00.000-04:00

One thing to keep in mind about advertising this early in the campaign: people will get in the habit of pressing the "mute" button on their remote sooner. All else being equal, they might just vote for the guy with the less obnoxious ads.

I was in Ohio a couple of weeks ago, visiting the in-laws, when a McCain commercial came on the tv. I was fascinated: it was the first McCain commercial I had seen this year. (I live in Oregon, where I have yet to see even a McCain bumper sticker or lawn sign.)

Their response, as Reagan Republicans? They changed the channel; they've seen enough of these ads.

They're not Obama supporters by any measure; my guess is that they just might hold their noses & vote for McCain. (My sister-in-law is still bitter about Hilary.) But at the same time, they could be convinced to vote for Obama; it's clear that they see that the Shrub has been a disaster.

Geoff

Oh yeah... I would feel very safe with the threat ...

2008-07-30T16:18:00.000-04:00

Oh yeah... I would feel very safe with the threat of Iran... eliminated.

Pete,Your sense of overconfidence is amazing to me...

2008-07-30T16:17:00.000-04:00

Pete,

Your sense of overconfidence is amazing to me.

You left yesterday before explaining how Obama has alienated "all young black males"

I'm still waiting on that one!!

Benjamin-I went looking for any information on tha...

2008-07-30T16:13:00.000-04:00

Benjamin-
I went looking for any information on that statement but couldn't find any numbers at a smaller granularity than state-level.

I didn't post anything because absence of evidence isn't evidence of absence. Every Mormon Church I've ever seen is very distinctive:
Well built.
Well lanscaped.
Well kept.
No crucifix.

Ever seen anything like that in the Shenandoah Valley?

Dems forget about Virginia. It's a southern state ...

2008-07-30T16:08:00.000-04:00

Dems forget about Virginia. It's a southern state that always puts a republican in the white house. Do you really believe Virginia will go with the ultra-liberal Obama?

Actually, as a Virginia I can tell you that it is now a Mid-Atlantic state. As 538 has shown, it has more in common with Delaware than it does with the Carolinas or Georgia.

The main difference is what you would term as "ultra-liberal" (most people would say "moderate" to "progressive") Northern Virginia and a large African-American population south of that area. If you add NOVA and AAs (not living in NOVA) together, they make up 46% of the population and both of those groups will tilt to Obama by wide margins.

The other 54% of the state may be able to stem the tide unless McCain puts Romney on the ticket. Then all bets are off.

By the way, in 10 short years the combined population of Northern Virginians and African-Americans who live south of that area will make up more than 50% of the state. Then it's hard to see how Republicans will continue to win Presidential elections in VA.

Damian, actually the result from Rasmussen without...

2008-07-30T16:07:00.000-04:00

Damian, actually the result from Rasmussen without leaners is +6... which gives us the trendline, not the +10.

"
Here's how I see it. Dems forget about Virginia. It's a southern state that always puts a republican in the white house. Do you really believe Virginia will go with the ultra-liberal Obama?"

Virginia changes. The Virginia you describe there is the Virginia we had in the 60´s. Now Megalopolis is coming down from north, Virginia gets more liberal. I don´t say there aren´t conservative anymore, but if Obama wins some counties like Loudon and Prince William, he´s good to go.
But actually- you have a bit of a point here. My regression model sees Virginia as Republican, too.

Ohio- one poll with McCain being up there doesn´t give him the state, especially if the poll has such weird crosstabs as those Rasmussen poll head (McCain ahead with young voters, tied with voters in their 40´s).

McCain MAY take Nevada because of the MOrmon vote, but it won´t have more impact than 1% in Colorado, I think. And I don´t think that CO will be a Toss-Up, come Novermber.

Florida:

"

Forget about Florida... the Jewish vote will not support anyone with a muslim father.

Polls prove you wrong with Jews, actually. He´s leading more than 2-1 with Jews, and has way better favorability ratings than McCAin or Lieberman.

The cubans hate Castro... his brother too.

May be, but there are not only Cuban Hispanics... And even if they favor McCain, the overall Latino vote will split- Kerry lost the FL Latino vote 44-56, Obama does better with Latinos than Kerry. And he will do better with Blacks, who Kerry won "only" 86-13.

Seniors love McCain and so does the military.

McCAin is only ahead by 20 with Military voters- not that much of a margin. And I don´t think that Florida seniors love him that much. Kerry lost them by just 5. But I had to see crosstabs on those.

Florida loves their Gov and he loves McCain. No Obama shot."

Crist loves McCAin? That´s a strange way to put it with all the rumors around Crist. But anyway, yes, Crist is pretty popular in Florida, but I don´t think that he´ll have much impact there.

After all, Rasmussens VP favorability poll gave him a nationwide Favorability Rating of -1, and for I think most of this answers come from Florida (where he has name recognition, most voters from outside Florida don´t know him and wouldn´t answer the question). But that does not mean much, the Rasmussen VP poll showed way lower favorability ratings for ALL candidates, compared with polls of other agencies.

"People feel safe with McCain."Right. The clip of ...

2008-07-30T16:06:00.001-04:00

"People feel safe with McCain."

Right. The clip of him singing "Bomb, bomb Iran" really made me feel safe.

You continue to just make stuff up.

Darien- Mormons are about 1.7% of the general popu...

2008-07-30T16:06:00.000-04:00

Darien-
Mormons are about 1.7% of the general population (~5.6MM) with about a fifth of that in Utah. You're right about one thing: they do vote, and they do vote red. They're hardly an untapped resource for the GOP. That's part of the problem. It's hard wring out a dry sponge, if you know what I mean.

I don't think McCain has to worry about Mormons voting for the other guy. What he does have to worry about is scaring away some of the 16.6 MM Southern Baptists by picking someone as VP that SBC congregants consider a heretic.

Oh... And that Ras McCain +10 in Ohio? Small sample (500). Minor Party ID issues. Major Crosstab irregularities (Young voters for McCain???). It, and the PPP that came out around the same time probably both missed the mark.

Florida- Stop asserting opinions as fact. Obama dominates in polling amongst Jews, and most of the old people in Florida are from NY-NE.

So it's not so simple.

Yeah pretty much that simple.You have to two extre...

2008-07-30T16:01:00.000-04:00

Yeah pretty much that simple.

You have to two extremes... the George Soros left apposing the Rush Limbaugh right. The rest will favor a strong country with a powerful desire for long, happy, and safe lives. People feel safe with McCain.

There are a lot of Mormons in the Shenandoah Valle...

2008-07-30T15:55:00.000-04:00

There are a lot of Mormons in the Shenandoah Valley. It would balance it out.

Now I know for a fact you just spew BS out without knowing what the hell you are talking about.

How much time have you spent in the Shenandoah Valley? Born and raised there myself. Lived up and down the Valley.

The Shenandoah Valley is full of evangelicals who would never vote for a Mormon. What it is most certainly NOT full of is Mormons.

The only Mormon I ever knew in 25 years of living in the Valley was my dentist. Compared to tens of thousands of evangelical Baptists and Methodists and Lutherans in every nook and corner.

Take my word for it, there are literally more Mennonites and Amish than Mormons in the Valley. (Some of my best friends growing up in Augusta County were actually Mennonites. No Mormons in our school system that I ever knew of.)

DarienCrow said... Huckabee won't be on the ballot...

2008-07-30T15:48:00.000-04:00

DarienCrow said...
Huckabee won't be on the ballot.

Don't you get it?

Voting is a huge part of what Christians do... just like Mormans.

That's why Romney will be McCain's VP. The "M" word and I don't mean Michigan. It's "Mormans"

Here's how I see it. Dems forget about Virginia. It's a southern state that always puts a republican in the white house. Do you really believe Virginia will go with the ultra-liberal Obama?

Forget about Florida... the Jewish vote will not support anyone with a muslim father. The cubans hate Castro... his brother too. Seniors love McCain and so does the military. Florida loves their Gov and he loves McCain. No Obama shot.

Rasmussen has McCain by 10! Nuff Said there.

Mormans vote... and they all vote red. They came out by the millions to vote for Romney. I know I was there at the Nevada caucus... and Romney will seal up Nevada and Colorado.

So do the electoral math. No Obama in Virginia, Florida, or Ohio. McCain takes Nevada and Colorado because of the Morman vote and McCain wins... and he doen't even need Michigan.

The popular vote doesn't count and the dems still don't believe it... so you can have all the California, New York, and Chicago vote you want and it still adds up to an Obama loss.

It's that simple, eh?