Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: McCain Brings Hope to Pennsylvania

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2009-10-07T08:46:48.893-04:00

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As a fellow Pennsylvanian (pittsburgher) I have to...

2008-10-23T18:50:00.000-04:00

As a fellow Pennsylvanian (pittsburgher) I have to echo what paranoid wrote above.

However, I also think that times are tough and scary enough that racism just *might* take a backseat this election. Not to mention that PA, like many other states, is only "blue" because of Philly and Pittsburgh. Right now across PA we have over a million registered voter advantage over the GOP. I have seen a level of activism in Pittsburgh that is positively unprecedented.

So while I agree it might end up being closer than everyone thinks in PA, I still think we'll win here in spite of some people's racist tendancies. I think it has much to do with older voters in rural areas, many of whom who see this as a vote for a black man and a vote for the unqualified woman. A recent poll does have McCain losing a lot of ground among rural voters-- if this bears itself out in PA then McCain is toast.

McCain is tied to people like this:http://www.yout...

2008-10-23T12:20:00.000-04:00

McCain is tied to people like this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zx_KvCLUTr8

Having spent the first 24 years of my life in West...

2008-10-22T16:23:00.000-04:00

Having spent the first 24 years of my life in Western and Central Pennsylvania I can attest to what John Murtha said earlier this week... Pennsylvania is an extraordinarily racist state over all; suprising as that may be given the overall education level (though in fairness that is concentrated in the two major cities, Philadelphia and to a lesser extent Pittsburgh), but not surprising given the basic reality that even poverty does not seem to remove from people the desire to push blame onto others - and from that racism is an easy jump.

I have feared and been saying from the start of this election that it would come down to Pennsylvania and that Pennsylvania was going to go to McCain. Friends and colleagues have tried to comfort and dissuade me, and every time I have allowed myself the smallest amount of hope I see another blowback.

The latest of course was the Citizen Powell endorsement... I could all but hear the rise in pressure again.

And forget your poll numbers and your party affiliations - racists seldom admit to being racists to anyone except other racists - and racism transcends party affiliation, and apparently common sense as a majority of Pennsylvanians would benefit more from the described agendas of Obama much more so than those of McCain.

But trust me, as one who lived there half his life, if Obama isn't a wide receiver or a running back he is going to have a hard time carrying Pennsylvania.

Yes, Hope is Not A Plan was said by a famous Democ...

2008-10-22T14:52:00.000-04:00

Yes, Hope is Not A Plan was said by a famous Democrat....

...and she turned out to be wrong. Dead wrong. Hope has served us pretty damn well so far.

So your analogy stinks.

Ed Rendell can be a pretty funny guy sometimes, bu...

2008-10-22T14:51:00.000-04:00

Ed Rendell can be a pretty funny guy sometimes, but he can also be a huge jackass.

Hey Ed, don't worry about Obama losing PA. What you SHOULD worry about is having your Phillies getting their asses handed to them by the Rays!

A little off-topic, but the phrase Jeremiah Wright...

2008-10-22T13:41:00.000-04:00

A little off-topic, but the phrase Jeremiah Wright All-Stars is hilarious. I imagine a pastor-reverend dream team of Wright, Farrakhan, Jackson and Sharpton going insane. I want someone to make a poster of that or something.

NE PA (where I am) is right down the middle Rep/De...

2008-10-22T13:16:00.000-04:00

NE PA (where I am) is right down the middle Rep/Dem, and solid blue collar Hillary supporters. McCain is hoping to get some of these to switch (giving him a +2 for those voters), and will parade Palin around to try to make it happen.

If McCain is down 600,000 votes, this doesn't mean he has to convince 600,000 to vote for him--he just has to convince 300,001 to switch.

The problem for Obama is complacency. I'm on the ground here for Obama, and we're seeing a ton of volunteers just disappear. When Obama gets up more than 10%, the volunteering evaporates. We're having a tough time filling GOTV slots because of it.

Rendell (whose only "machine" is around Philly) has been calling for much more direct involvement by Obama, hopefully in Harrisburg and Monroe County where an appearance would have more direct effect. Obama never came to Monroe Country (which went to Bush by 4 votes in 2004) even during the primary, and he got his butt handed to him by Clinton.

Nutter has been popping up at some campaign events...

2008-10-22T12:58:00.000-04:00

Nutter has been popping up at some campaign events recently. Philly is safe. They'll show up for Obama. Obama will not abandon PA.

Good article.I live in Bucks County, PA. One of th...

2008-10-22T12:53:00.000-04:00

Good article.

I live in Bucks County, PA. One of the counties surrounding Philadelphia.

I find it hard to believe that McCain can flip the state, but I wouldn't be surprised if he made it close. My county in particular has a long history of being moderately Republican. Patrick Murphy is our first Dem. representative in years. Because of the Primary season, and stupid Bush, Dems finally have move registered voters in Bucks than Republican's.

Bucks went with Kerry in 04 and Gore in 00. We'll see. I think Obama needs to do as well as Kerry did in Philadelphia, or better. Hold the surrounding counties like Kerry and Gore did. Biden should help in Scranton. Although, my girlfriends father, a union VP, told me that many men in the union are voting McCain because Obama is black. Should be interesting. I won't be surprised if the race tightens.

Governor Rendell is claiming he's nervous that McC...

2008-10-22T12:36:00.000-04:00

Governor Rendell is claiming he's nervous that McCain will win PA. The polls don't suggest it. So why is he so nervous. He does control the state's machine, doesn't he? Couldn't he "ensure" he Democratic nominee take the state with a few phone calls?

I've never trusted that man and I don't believe he has Barack's best interests at heart in PA.

The PA machine doesn't appear to be on Barack's side, so even though he's polling so well, McCain knows that without early voting, a steal will be more easy to carry out by targeting Philly with suppression, intimidation, a contested election on election day, etc.

The GOP has filed a lawsuit against ACORN in PA in order to challenge 140,000 registrations in the Philly area.

It's so transparent.

Obama probably can't win PA without overwhelming turnout in Philly and since Michael Nutter, who isn't exactly a fan of Barack's, is in charge there...

I know the Democrats seemed unified in PA, but the potential for behind-the-scenes shenanigans trouble me.

If Barack ignores Rendell's requests to return to PA anytime soon, then he probably knows that he better spend time closing the deal in other states. Barack can win the electoral college without PA.

I hope I'm dead wrong about the PA steal. But I don't put anything past the criminals.

DCM in FL said:OBAMA IS TIED WITH MAC FOR NASCAR F...

2008-10-22T12:31:00.000-04:00

DCM in FL said:

OBAMA IS TIED WITH MAC FOR NASCAR FANS !!!

====

As a NASCAR fan and a lifelong Democrat, (yeah, what of it?) first let me say this. WOOOOOO! :)

Also, while Obama's strong numbers undoubtedly have a lot to do with this, I think it may also have something to do with NASCAR's changing demographics. It used to be that NASCAR was of, by and for the South. Today, more of the top-tier NASCAR drivers hail from California than any other state.

From Mark Salter, John McCain's closest adviser:“W...

2008-10-22T12:06:00.000-04:00

From Mark Salter, John McCain's closest adviser:
“When we look at our numbers, we think we’re competitive [in Pennsylvania]. We would like to get as many Clinton supporters as we can.”

The McCain campaign consistently illustrates why the lack of a direct, framing narrative for a Presidential candidate is so fatal; John McCain is getting buried alive over the twin practices of grasping at Hillary's leftovers and cynically pandering to a GOP base that does not embrace his strong suits (leading thusly to the Palin disaster). The Hillary-vote boat has sailed over a month ago, and the Palin boat is burning a few miles offshore. Lord, what terrible management; can someone name me a comprehensive plan that John McCain has offered that differs significantly from George W. Bush? The rookie Democrat is winning handily now because he's (surprise, surprise) focusing on confidence and content over empty character. The lack of a solid plan makes it impossible to take John McCain or Sarah Palin seriously anymore.

If hope is not a strategy, then panic isn't either...

2008-10-22T12:00:00.000-04:00

If hope is not a strategy, then panic isn't either. In the Clinton primary campaign it was widely known that internal bickering led to a less than cohesive message and to a flawed overall strategy. As McCain's campaign runs out of messages that have legs with voters, desperation and even panic is likely to set-in. Probably already has. How would you feel if your majors thrusts all produce negative results? If you re playing blackjack, you might start to double-up, at least until you lose all your chips.

I think The McCain camp is going to use Wright, no...

2008-10-22T11:01:00.000-04:00

I think The McCain camp is going to use Wright, not to up his polls before the election but to create doubt when people get to the 'switch' on voting day.

They are down to long shots now!

"A team can get itself into tons of trouble by con...

2008-10-22T10:23:00.000-04:00

"A team can get itself into tons of trouble by convincing itself it has 87-win talent -- making it a fringe playoff contender -- when it fact it has 80-win talent -- making it an also-ran."

As a long time Mariner's fan (and reader of Dave Cameron), I have first-hand knowledge of this. Though calling the '08 M's a true 80 win club is still a bit generous...

I keep reading Al Giordano's work to see when the ...

2008-10-22T10:10:00.000-04:00

I keep reading Al Giordano's work to see when the "Cardoza 40" will show up to back Obama over Clinton.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/5/23/144331/245/396/521343

Perhaps this explains why Palin's stump speech has...

2008-10-22T10:03:00.000-04:00

Perhaps this explains why Palin's stump speech has dropped Ayers and ACORN and is now focusing on shattering that highest glass ceiling?

I love the fact that he's relying on PUMA's, those...

2008-10-22T09:37:00.000-04:00

I love the fact that he's relying on PUMA's, those loveable nutjobs will bring home Scranton...

Nate, can you add a Obama wins the election if McC...

2008-10-22T09:23:00.000-04:00

Nate, can you add a Obama wins the election if McCain wins PA to the Scenarios?

Hail Mary Pass #1: Choose inexperienced wing-nut f...

2008-10-22T09:07:00.000-04:00

Hail Mary Pass #1: Choose inexperienced wing-nut for VP nominee.

Hail Mary Pass #2: Suspend campaign.

Hail Mary Pass #3: Cut ad budget in single digit NM and CO and put money in double digit PA.

Each Hail Mary pass is coming from deeper in the end zone and closer to the clock running out, and so each one is more desperate than the last.

Good luck with that 100 yard pass...

I'm pretty shocked that nowhere in these analyses ...

2008-10-22T09:04:00.000-04:00

I'm pretty shocked that nowhere in these analyses are the horrific projections of hundreds of thousands of new Democratic votes being PREVENTED or THROWN OUT.

Ohio has already gone to the Supreme Court about this, and there are three other swing states that are in dire jeopardy of voter registration fraud.

Not to mention the machines that "malfunction" in poor neighborhoods, the long delays at the voting places, the people who are going to be told they have to use provisional ballots that are going to be TOSSED, etc.

Why is no one here mentioning this AT ALL?

THIS is how McCain is going to win.

Please comment, Nate and others!!