Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Today's Polls, 9/8

"Charles M. Kozierok said... Thanks once again for...

2008-09-08T21:21:40.407-04:00

"Charles M. Kozierok said...
Thanks once again for the voice of reason, Nate. My contribution to dampening the hysteria: Don't Panic - 10 Reasons Why Obama Supporters Should Chill."

Great article Charles ... much needed. Economist published their second critical article on McCain in only two weeks. That is a big change from the past year. Very supportive of McCain and very skeptical of Obama.

http://www.economist.com/world/unitedstates/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12066224

"Lengthening life expectancy is colliding with med...

2008-09-08T19:40:11.966-04:00

"Lengthening life expectancy is colliding with medical budgets and depleted savings."

Well put...shouldn't we be at least including these issues in the national discourse? After all, they probably reflect a resource sink of somewhere around a trillion dollars for the Baby Boomer generation alone...

I think de-stigmatized euthanasia is already an is...

2008-09-08T19:35:42.262-04:00

I think de-stigmatized euthanasia is already an issue. The Republicans are against it when the "victim" is a white woman whose estate has a few bucks in it, but are for it when it's black people on Medicaid put to death by the Texas Futile Care Law.

Lengthening life expectancy is colliding with medical budgets and depleted savings. We haven't seen the beginning of this one yet.

I mean, to me BOTH parties are effectively pro-lif...

2008-09-08T19:33:44.787-04:00

I mean, to me BOTH parties are effectively pro-life. Where can I find representation by someone who camps somewhere left of Peter Singer?

I have an idea! Let's stop pretending that first-t...

2008-09-08T19:30:40.084-04:00

I have an idea! Let's stop pretending that first-trimester abortion is a relevant social plank and start addressing the REAL issues of the 21st century:
- de-stigmatized euthanasia
- positive eugenics via tax incentives
- forced sterilization

God we need some REAL social progressives in this country.

I am very confident that Caribou Barbie is almost ...

2008-09-08T19:24:21.069-04:00

I am very confident that Caribou Barbie is almost entirely responsible for Obama's gains in Florida. I said this would happen when she was picked.

I agree. Caribou Barbie scares the shit out of everyone in FL who isn't a Bible-beatin' wingnut freak.

There has been a 26 pt wing in McCain's favor in t...

2008-09-08T19:22:01.066-04:00

There has been a 26 pt wing in McCain's favor in the midwest.

Why do you feel the need to lie about a poll whose numbers can be seen online?

Rassmusen/Fox News

Ohio
O-44
M-51

Virginia
O-47
M-49

Florida
O-48
M-48

Colorado
O-49
M-46

Pennsylvania
O-47
M-45

Registered or likely?

Pennsylvania is in play again

Always has been, but it'll wind up being an Obama state. I think OH will be a McCain state, but if FL is tied right now then it's an Obama state and it's all over.

Eddie Rendell's machine keeps PA. I forgot about that. That's worth +2 right there.

True enough. Sort of like Indiana's Republican voter suppression machine.

"LIE" is pretty divisive language in an ad.

Not sure it builds Obama's change and hope message.

I hope he'll run it, but I bet this is one of those Internet ads designed to be covered by the news media rather than actually be run widely. They also want to convince the Internet politics junkies that they're fighting back, even if they're not.

NEW POST

2008-09-08T19:04:46.915-04:00

NEW POST

"Big deal...she is not allowed to change her mind?...

2008-09-08T18:57:17.259-04:00

"Big deal...she is not allowed to change her mind?"

She's not allowed to change her mind only because she can't get 300 million in pork, and then claim she's a "reformer".

No wonder you're offended at the ad - you're as dishonest as they are!

dominoid73 said... At the height of McCain bounce ...

2008-09-08T18:57:16.820-04:00

dominoid73 said...
At the height of McCain bounce this is the "bounce" in Rasmussen polls from pre-convention releases.

Ohio M+2
Virginia M+1
Florida O+2
Colorado O+4
Pennsylvania M+1
Current: McCain +1
August 12: Obama +2 Virginia: Net O +1
August 13: Obama +2 Colorado: Net O +7
August 18: Obama +1: Ohio Net: 0
August 18: Obama +1 Florida Net O +3
August 19: Obama +3 Pennsylvania Net O +2

So in one state, McCain changed by +2 nationally and the state changed by +2. What you'd expect. But in the other states, McCain changed nationally but the states either went less for McCain or actually went more for Obama, showing the reverse of national trends.

So in Ohio, it looks unchanged from August, but in the other four states, Obama's showing real improvement. You would expect that, as the bounce fades, Obama will be improved in those four states.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/general_election_match_up_history

"It's not fair, however that doesn't mean in any w...

2008-09-08T18:56:47.230-04:00

"It's not fair, however that doesn't mean in any way that it would be a good idea."

Ah, but there's the beauty of it. It wouldn't be Biden to ask, it would be a journalist. "

Let's be clear - any question (from anybody) that gives Palin the opportunity to talk about her love for babies is BAD for democrats. Any question that compels Palin to have to give a complex answer to a complex question regarding the nation's economy or world affairs is GOOD for democrats.

I am very confident that Caribou Barbie is almost ...

2008-09-08T18:56:10.243-04:00

I am very confident that Caribou Barbie is almost entirely responsible for Obama's gains in Florida. I said this would happen when she was picked.

If he loses Florida, it's over.

And it's going to get worse for him there.

Obama votes with Harry Reid 97% of the time...and ...

2008-09-08T18:55:08.416-04:00

Obama votes with Harry Reid 97% of the time...and he is for change?

What if they said he votes with Howard Dean 97% of the time?

He holding up the shirt that says "nowhere" does not make it look like she was for it...

The ad basically admitted that she changed her mind...

Big deal...she is not allowed to change her mind? That is different than a lie.

Why is Obama picking a fight on this thing?

HE VOTED FOR THE BRIDGE...SO DID BIDEN.

This is a pretty harsh ad that sets Obama-Biden up for smackdown.

Michael, yes, the Clintons will ramp up support. I...

2008-09-08T18:52:47.159-04:00

Michael, yes, the Clintons will ramp up support. In addition, that luncheon will probably be all about tactics. The Clintons proved they can be the GOP machine.

Rock Barack!

Today's (9/8) EV chart is instructive.I look and s...

2008-09-08T18:52:31.979-04:00

Today's (9/8) EV chart is instructive.

I look and say basically there are 6 likely scenarios represented in the peaks. Obviously, these are mostly permutations of wins and losses involving CO, NV, OH, VA. The other states being pretty much static, either in the O or M camp.

If you pull all the other noise out this is what you have left.

What state or states are demographically closest (State Similarity scores) to all four of these states?

Maybe Nate can elucidate. By my ethnic dimensions of demographics, I think it may be IN, with these paths

NV-CO-KS-IN-OH-MI-DE-VA

But I think Nate's scores show a different path but he includes longitude and latitude which is problematic, I think.

A minimum spanning network according to Isabel Lugo analysis of Nate's SSS reveals:

NV-CO-WA-MN-WI-OH-PA-DE-VA

http://www.math.upenn.edu/~isabel/tree.gif

How would this change ROI analysis.

damn, I am like a junkie, can't stay away from the...

2008-09-08T18:49:37.840-04:00

damn, I am like a junkie, can't stay away from the crack cocaine of daily polls.

I won't comment on the numbers until 9/15, since it is all noise and static til then. But I will say that in the law of unintended consequences, Clinton has a HUGE motivation to see Obama win now, since if McCain wins, Palin WILL be the GOP nominee in 4 or 8 years, and the last thing Clinton wants is to be running against a younger, spunkier and prettier woman.

Watch for the Clintons to be ramping up their support of Barack and attacks on Palin/McCain (that is the proper order of the ticket)

Midpoint - here's the deal. The Obama base has no ...

2008-09-08T18:49:21.000-04:00

Midpoint - here's the deal. The Obama base has no problem with his use of divisive language. Know why? Ya'll started it, we want to finish it.

""LIE" is pretty divisive language in an ad."Lying...

2008-09-08T18:47:55.738-04:00

""LIE" is pretty divisive language in an ad."

Lying is pretty divisive too. LOL

"Not sure it builds Obama's change and hope message."

No, it helps protect his change message from liars who are trying to steal it.

"The bridge to nowhere is a pretty bold one to call a "Lie""

It was a blatant flat out lie for her to suggest that this was evidence of her being a reformer, when she was for it when she thought others would pay for it, and kept the money after it was cancelled.

Bald faced lie. I am sure many people will be glad that he made that ad.

The only way to fight back against liars is to call them on it.

P.S. Please stop pretending you're not a Republican, it's getting silly.

"LIE" is pretty divisive language in an ad.Not sur...

2008-09-08T18:45:41.409-04:00

"LIE" is pretty divisive language in an ad.

Not sure it builds Obama's change and hope message.

Not very bi-partisan. The base will love it, but will undecideds?

The bridge to nowhere is a pretty bold one to call a "Lie"

She signed the paper that officially killed it.

If they put that on TV, the "LIE" thing will look like a smear...

Mule baby: In a country where a cowboy retard like...

2008-09-08T18:44:40.981-04:00

Mule baby: In a country where a cowboy retard like Bush can be president, you're talking to us about a bleeping 'mayor'? Hello?

"SurveyUSA has Obama down to +4 in Washington? Rea...

2008-09-08T18:42:49.821-04:00

"SurveyUSA has Obama down to +4 in Washington? Really?"

Really.

Gore carried WA by 6
Kerry carried WA by 7

McCain has a 3 point convention bounce on his "bounce day".

Sounds about right.

Scott said... http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...

2008-09-08T18:40:51.579-04:00

Scott said...
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html

SurveyUSA has Obama down to +4 in Washington? Really?

------------

The last SUSA poll was O+7 so O+4 immediately post RNC is very consistent with the McCain general bounce.

There may be some regional effect from the Palin pick but I'll believe that when I see it.

Fl is looking great for Obama. McCain has 90% Repu...

2008-09-08T18:40:45.374-04:00

Fl is looking great for Obama. McCain has 90% Repub support and Obama only has 79% and it's even. Dems have huge voter ID registration advantage of 465,000 voters that aren't considered LV b/c they are new registers. Obama will pull his Dem suport up to mid 80's and with the new voters he's taking Fl.

Without Fl McCain has zero shot to win the election.

"SurveyUSA has Obama down to +4 in Washington? Rea...

2008-09-08T18:39:44.782-04:00

"SurveyUSA has Obama down to +4 in Washington? Really?"

SUSA outside of the McCain poll "surge" was only at O +7 so that O+4 although low is inline with the polling time frame. Even Rasmussen had O+12 in its August polling.

VaCon,The last honest Republican?Seriously, you're...

2008-09-08T18:38:07.550-04:00

VaCon,

The last honest Republican?

Seriously, you're a breath of fresh air.

You should have heard me back in 2004, trying like hell to support Kerry and keep a brave face, but I knew he had extremely long odds and would likely lose.

In my opinion, McCain has about as good of a shot as Kerry. He can still pull it out but he needs to be perfect and thread the needle when it comes to Governor Mooseburger as his running mate.