Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Lanny Davis: Still a Hack After All These Years

酒店經紀人, 菲梵酒店經紀, 酒店經紀, 禮服酒店上班, 酒店小姐兼職, 便服酒店經紀, ...

2009-10-08T08:14:56.133-04:00

酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店經紀,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店工作,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
菲
梵,

艾葳酒店經紀公司提供專業的酒店經紀, 酒店上班小姐,八大行業,酒店兼職,傳播妹,或者想要到打工兼差、...

2009-09-11T01:29:10.091-04:00

艾葳酒店經紀公司提供專業的酒店經紀, 酒店上班小姐,八大行業,酒店兼職,傳播妹,或者想要到打工兼差、打工,兼差,或者八大行業,酒店兼職,想去酒店上班, 日式酒店,制服酒店,ktv酒店,禮服店,整天穿得水水漂漂的,還是想去制服店當上班小姐,水水們如果想要擁有打工工作、晚上兼差工作、兼差打工、假日兼職、兼職工作、酒店兼差、兼差、打工兼差、日領工作、晚上兼差工作、酒店工作、酒店上班、酒店打工、兼職、兼差、兼差工作、酒店上班等,想了解酒店相關工作和特種行業內容,想兼職工作日領、假日兼職、兼差打工、或晚班兼職想擁有快速賺錢又有保障的工作嗎???又可以現領請找專業又有保障的艾葳酒店經紀公司!

艾葳酒店經紀是合法的公司工作環境高雅時尚，無業績壓力，無脫秀無喝酒壓力，高層次會員制客源，工作輕鬆，可日領、現領。
一般的酒店經紀只會在水水們第一次上班和領薪水時出現而已，對水水們的上班安全一點保障都沒有！艾葳酒店經紀公司的水水們上班時全程媽咪作陪，不需擔心！只提供最優質的酒店上班,酒店上班,酒店打工環境、上班條件給水水們。心動嗎!? 趕快來填寫你的酒店上班履歷表

水水們妳有缺現領、有兼職、缺錢卡奴的煩腦嗎?想到日本留學缺錢嗎?妳是傳播妹??想要擁有高時薪又輕鬆的夜間兼職工作,打工機會和,假日打工,假日兼職賺錢的機會嗎??想實現夢想卻又缺錢沒錢嗎!??
艾葳酒店台北酒店經紀招兵買馬!!徵專業的酒店打工,想要去酒店的水水,想要短期日領,酒店日領,禮服酒店,制服店,酒店經紀,ktv酒店,便服店,酒店工作,禮服店,酒店小姐,酒店經紀人,
等相關服務幫您快速的實現您的夢想~!!

帶著簡單的行囊,來花蓮旅遊走走,順便體驗一下各種花蓮民宿帶給你的不同感受,品嚐道地花蓮美食的特別花蓮...

2009-03-18T07:14:00.000-04:00

帶著簡單的行囊,來花蓮旅遊走走,順便體驗一下各種花蓮民宿帶給你的不同感受,品嚐道地花蓮美食的特別花蓮小吃風味,也可以騎著單車來品味花蓮 ,呼吸著新鮮的花蓮空氣,所以來花蓮住宿就帶著輕鬆的心情吧!!花蓮黃頁擁有各種不同風格的花蓮民宿,歡迎您來花蓮旅遊放鬆心情體驗美麗的花蓮民宿!!

^^ nice blog!! thanks a lot! ^^徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵信...

2009-03-11T05:54:00.001-04:00

^^ nice blog!! ^@^徵信, 徵信, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社...

2009-03-11T05:54:00.000-04:00

情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,...

2009-02-12T23:01:00.000-05:00

Maybe he didn't get shamed by JDKhttp://www.huffin...

2008-07-12T17:16:00.000-04:00

Maybe he didn't get shamed by JDK
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/07/12/sticking-a-wrench-in-the_n_112303.html

I don't know if anyone is still reading this site,...

2008-07-03T00:23:00.000-04:00

I don't know if anyone is still reading this site, but I think there are several things that are structurally different about Obama's lead - forget issues.

1) Kerry never led on betting sites even when he had that lead in July

2) Obama's favorability ratings are much higher than Kerry's ever were

3) Obama experienced a pretty bruising primary fight Kerry didn't have - that brought out some pretty bad things

damn, the muslim-hating right wingers have discove...

2008-07-02T19:39:00.000-04:00

damn, the muslim-hating right wingers have discovered the site. Nate, I think you should do what some of the other message boards do. Have some volunteer mods to clean it up and keep the hate and slander out. The site is supposed to be for thoughtful and reasoned analysis, and phrases like "left-wing whackos" or brandishing the name Hussein like it is an unanswerable closing argumentnand is game, set and match in some 2nd grade game of doing the dozens really cheapens it. It is pathetic. I wonder who these hateful and hating fools think they are swaying with such loathsome "discourse".

A good first step is at least to require registration. These Muslim and Black-hating trolls are ruining the site. Hey trolls. There are so many sites where you can spew your venom. Can you go post on lucianne or townhall or even wapo (where they don't even moderate) and leave this site to folks who are interested in discussing polls. I think another rule should be you need to be able to count to 20 without taking your shoes and socks off in order to post here. That would pretty much eliminate most of the trolls right there.

Waffles can't seem to get a real lead and the bebe...

2008-07-02T18:51:00.000-04:00

Waffles can't seem to get a real lead and the bebe boyz are sweating.

Olberdouche tried to sell the outliers, but no one bought that brand of bullsh*t. Olberboyy must be pretty pissed that Waffles cost him MTP.

Hey, I've got an idea...get Lanny's blog shut down. You know...suppress free speech. It's the O'Bambi way.

If Lanny Davis could make an "August" surprise hap...

2008-07-02T17:55:00.000-04:00

If Lanny Davis could make an "August" surprise happen, he would.

If the race is at all tight in the first week of August, he'll be on the TV circuit saying stuff like "I told you so, HC would have been a better nominee. (Unless, of course, these posts shame him in to shutting up.)

There are still hard core deep connected Clintonistas hoping for the August surprise or planning for 2012.

Note, for example, Clinton use of the word "Caucasian" in her eventual concession speech. Probably inserted by her husband at the last minute, because I can't fathom how having spent time with Moynihan, she could have used such a word, except as a very very subtle code for stirring it up in Southern Ohio and Northern Florida and the whole Ozarks to Appalachia and the South band of "American/United States Ancestry Question Responders". (Of course, it doesn't really matter that much to Obama's electoral strategy and general forward thinking vision thing but the backward looking Clinton machine doesn't really care about that anyway.)

There's also some backroom groussing about Obama's connection with Zbig Brzezinski (basically overplaying it) to poison certain Florida demographics.

On the other hand, the Clintons say they're behind Obama, so let's take them at their word. Win Arkansas for Obama, then we'll know your claim for unity was real. As the old dimwit (may he RIP) used to say: "Trust, but verified."

I know this is an Obama hyping blog, but allow me ...

2008-07-02T17:54:00.000-04:00

I know this is an Obama hyping blog, but allow me to point out the problems are not really McCain's but Obama's.

He has two significant problems: First he is widely viewed as inexperienced and in fact lacking the experience to be president. Two, he has actually got himself tacked onto the wrong side of the issues: Gas Prices and Iraq. He can never reverse course on drilling, I suspect, but he will wind up adopting a position on Iraq that is indistinguishable from Bush/McCain b/c conditions on the ground there both militarily and politically have shifted so dramatically that he risks loss of credibility if he continues to cater to the anti-war crowd above all else.

Worse, Iraq has oil reserves that rival Saudi Arabia's (so the common wisdom goes) and under the present circumstances with everyone focused on the price at the pump he cannot be seen to abandon those resources to Al-Qaeda and our enemies.

Therein lies the rub! Damned if he does and damned if he doesn't. Of course he can’t abandon the war without revealing himself to be just as phony as so many have claimed.

On a whole host of issues Obama appears now to be running for Bush's Third Term: Guns, Death Penalty, Faith-Based Initiatives, and FISA. What's next? Privatizing social security?

Obama's stated position on the Bush tax cuts is virtually the same as McCain’s, with a difference only over the smallest sliver of the population -- those earning over $250,000. This is akin to the difference he had with Hillary over universal healthcare.
You know, I am beginning to like the guy!

GabrielAh, I can see it now. It's like a 19th cent...

2008-07-02T15:56:00.000-04:00

Gabriel

Ah, I can see it now. It's like a 19th century painting, a gray-green stormy sky highlighted with flashes of violet, the green seas swelling and surging violently, a little to left of center the waves crash over the stern and fo'c'sle of the...

Exxon/Mobil Oil Derrick Platform?

Dude, that's strange sense of beauty you've got there.

Gas-$2.00 a gallon January 2007-Democrats take over Congress-July 2, 2007-Gas $4.09 a gallon.

January 2007-Barrel of Oil $60-Democrats take over congress-July 2007-Barrel of Oil $144.00 a barrel- what do Democrats say, Wind Power, Solar Power-Oil goes up another dollar!!!!!

I tell you what Gabriel-get your facts straight-Millions will get out and vote against Hussein because he is like you, you would rather put your lips against your tailpipe and blow than put gasoline in your tank.

ITS THE DRILLING STUPID!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Polls don't matter until about the second week in ...

2008-07-02T15:08:00.000-04:00

Polls don't matter until about the second week in September. We're all political junkies to be posting on a political blog. The average swing-voting American certainly is not. They won't start forming opinions until after both conventions.

We,re 4 months to the election. Four months before Barack's game changing win in Iowa, I'm sure half of Iowa voters never heard of the guy. Polls shifted significantly once voters started paying attention in late November, and December. The same will happen in the General.

Middle of September, we'll have a good idea where the country stands.

Kerry never lead by more than 2% from june until t...

2008-07-02T14:59:00.001-04:00

Kerry never lead by more than 2% from june until the election. Proof,

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/chart3way.html

Anon@9:29am: As for you left wing, environmental w...

2008-07-02T14:59:00.000-04:00

Anon@9:29am: As for you left wing, environmental wacko nut jobs, please envision those oil derricks off the west coast and east coast and in Alaska. I can't wait, can you?

Ah, I can see it now. It's like a 19th century painting, a gray-green stormy sky highlighted with flashes of violet, the green seas swelling and surging violently, a little to left of center the waves crash over the stern and fo'c'sle of the...

Exxon/Mobil Oil Derrick Platform?

Dude, that's strange sense of beauty you've got there.

.

Anon@9:29am: "What all of you left wing environmen...

2008-07-02T14:43:00.000-04:00

Anon@9:29am: "What all of you left wing environmental wacko nut jobs fail to realize is that $6.00 a gallon gasoline will bring out the silent majority."

So Nixon's "silent majority" will come out on 11/4 to vote *for* the same Republican party that brought them $6.00/gallon gas?

Riiight.

.

FNJPoint of fact:From 7/1 to 8/5, 32 polls in 2004...

2008-07-02T10:59:00.000-04:00

FNJ
Point of fact:
From 7/1 to 8/5, 32 polls in 2004 gave John Kerry an average of 2% lead (slightly larger).
Also, with polls conducted entirely during the first week of August, 2004, Kerry lead in 5 polls by an average of exactly 4%.
Source:http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/bush_vs_kerry_historical.html
Obama's lead is several points highter, but far from insurmountable

I love this site, and the generally thoughtful comments.
It's hard to leave one's politcal inclinations aside; however,when ideas are data driven, rather than politically driven, they carry far more weight.

Taking a look at RCP average, it seems to me that ...

2008-07-02T10:50:00.000-04:00

Taking a look at RCP average, it seems to me that OBAMA really only gained about a 2 point edge after HRC dropped out of the race. What I see now is an approximately 3 point drop for McCain. Giving the 5 point edge in the average. This is all just poll noise. Given the state of the economy, the world and gasoline prices, it seems we can have another shift at any time. This lead is hardly worth mentioning.

What all of you left wing environmental wacko nut ...

2008-07-02T10:29:00.000-04:00

What all of you left wing environmental wacko nut jobs fail to realize is that $6.00 a gallon gasoline will bring out the silent majority. Second, WHO GIVES A DAMN ABOUT WHO IS AHEAD in JUNE. The real story is who is ahead on 11/4. Third, this is a state race, and if you look at many of the polls, MCCAIN the BRAVE is ahead or just a couple of points behind BARACK the MUSLIM in enough states to win 270 EV.

Any State MCCAIN the Brave is behind by 2 points on 11/4, he will win by 5 points over Barack the MUSLIM.

As for you left wing, environmental wacko nut jobs, please envision those oil derricks off the west coast and east coast and in Alaska.
I can't wait, can you?

MCCAIN the BRAVE

Sorry, I might have to correct myself here. My pre...

2008-07-02T10:04:00.000-04:00

Sorry, I might have to correct myself here. My previous post was somewhat confused.

Looking closer at the two RCP 2004 poll lists it seems as if the "head-to-head race" version actually isn't what I first thought it was: a recalculated version of the "3-way race" excluding both undecideds and Nader votes. Rather, the "head-to-head race" version lists results when a two-party candidate question was asked, i.e. not including Nader among the alternatives.

So it turns out I was comparing different kinds of apple jam.

(Interestingly, though, the two polls taken during this period in which Kerry wasn't in the lead, one a tie and the other +4 Bush, did not include a two-way choice question, and because of this absent from the "head-to-head" list used by our anonymous friend.)

Like Jgabriel points out, it should of course be noted that we're comparing June 2008 to July 2004. But I can actually see the point of comparing Obama's polling with Kerry's highest-polling period.

Looking for the most relevant comparison of 2004 and 2008 polling (leaving aside the time frame question), I've now tried doing for 2004 what I did above for 2008, calculating the candidates' shares of the two-party vote when a two-way question is asked. This weeds out the undecideds.

This operation, however, won't change the numbers much. For the July time frame used, we get a Kerry lead between 1.1 and 11.3 points in share of two-party vote, averaging 4.2 points. This Kerry high-point is still notably lower than Obama's lead in an equivalent calculation using the current RCP Average, which as I wrote above is 6.6 points.

But it's also well worth noting that if we instead use RCP's three-way polling statistics from the same July 2004 period (which also means not excluding the two most Bush-friendly polls) we get a span in the candidates' share of the two-party vote from a 4.3 point Bush lead to a 8.9 point Kerry lead, with the mean result a 2.2 point Kerry lead.

Couple of things folks:1) Lanny Davis is a blather...

2008-07-02T09:55:00.000-04:00

Couple of things folks:

1) Lanny Davis is a blathering Clinton shill. Ignore him, as his signing on with FAUX NEWS should have alerted anyone with the sense to come out of a thunderstorm that he is irrelevant.

2) Take a deep breath where polls are concerned. Obama's current lead is a really good sign, and this is 08, not 04. With a President below 30% approval, an economy in the throughs of a recession (oops I said the R word), and a 5 year unpopular war half a world away, the signs are all positive for an insurgent candidate to be able to win the White House.

3) All of these Republican shills thrashing about on identity politics will show that they are a desperate, damaged brand with no new ideas. And there will always be a swath of the electorate that will vote based on this nonsense, but it is an ever shrinking group.

All in all, I say, Know Hope!

Uh, if I remember correctly, exit polling (that's ...

2008-07-02T08:53:00.000-04:00

Uh, if I remember correctly, exit polling (that's AFTER the election) showed Kerry winning many of the states he lost and nationally with a 2-4% edge. We see how that turned out. You nutjobs can spin this how you want, but Kerry was polled with a strong edge both before AND after the election...and still LOST. I think Obama should be concerned.

So what you're sayin: Lanny Davis=idiot?

2008-07-02T06:53:00.000-04:00

So what you're sayin: Lanny Davis=idiot?

I agree with some of the remarks above... this sit...

2008-07-02T06:35:00.000-04:00

I agree with some of the remarks above... this site has now become too popular for anonymous posting. I love watching people debate the meaningfulness of 'margins of error', and discussing electioneering strategies, but have no desire to listen to extreme spin or listen to partisans shout about policy. I go to other places for that! There's one particularly obnoxious smeer upthread that should really be deleted. The comments sections really were a better read a week or two back. Otherwise, love the site!