Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: McCain VP: Pawlenty Guarantees MN, WI?

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2009-10-09T02:47:52.584-04:00

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2009-09-10T01:09:13.313-04:00

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2009-03-11T05:12:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-11T05:12:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-12T22:14:00.000-05:00

I Love speculating about the VP, I found a site th...

2008-06-27T14:56:00.000-04:00

I Love speculating about the VP, I found a site that has alot of info on all the veep candidates with videos and petitions you can sign for or against potential vp candidates, I signed a petition to ask McCain not to pick Romney, and I signed one asking McCain to pick Huckabee. Sweet site. Its www.TheVeep.com

that's _F_*ckin' _I_llinoiz _B_astard, gollygosh. ...

2008-06-23T22:25:00.000-04:00

that's _F_*ckin' _I_llinoiz _B_astard, gollygosh.

Fibbah!

Obama is a fibbah, dontchaknow?

2008-06-23T22:23:00.000-04:00

Obama is a fibbah, dontchaknow?

Pawlenty only got 46.6% of the vote in his re-elec...

2008-06-23T16:51:00.000-04:00

Pawlenty only got 46.6% of the vote in his re-election campaign for Governor. Luckily for him, the Green Party and Independence Party candidates siphoned votes from the Democratic candidate, and he "won" re-election despite a solid majority of Minnesotans voting against him.

I don't think Pawlenty would guarantee Minnesota even if he was on the TOP of the ticket.

@ anonymous. There was a news story a few months a...

2008-06-22T15:24:00.000-04:00

@ anonymous. There was a news story a few months ago about the candidates and their computers. hillary had a pc. obama has a mac. smart. but, sorry anonymous, mccain himself admitted he doesn't have a computer and doesn't even know how to use one.

A commenter on another post says it much better th...

2008-06-22T13:06:00.000-04:00

A commenter on another post says it much better than I can:

"They say McCain reads the blogs, so here goes --

Senator McCain- Don't let the campaign kibbitzers muddle things up.

First and foremost, Sarah Palin shares your values. She killed the bridge to nowhere. Need we say more?

As for the politics, Sarah Palin transcends geography. Her constituency, like yours, goes beyond state lines.

She will get your ticket access to voters all over the country based on who she is and what she stands for. Because she's young, a woman, a mother with young kids, she will grab media attention more than any other potential candidate.

Gov. Palin also has a son in the active duty military. You have very wisely taken your son's service in Iraq off the table as a campaign talking point. That is and should be respected. But others can talk about it and reflect on what it means.

A McCain-Palin administration would be the first in memory which has family members in uniform during wartime from both the President and Vice President. That would be a powerful statement as to the importance of national service, especially in uniform.

Most importantly, any Vice President should be ready to step up and serve in the event she is needed. Frankly, who is really ever ready? Gov. Palin is as ready as anybody, she is a quick learner, and in her public career has exhibited the courage and decisiveness needed for a great leader.

Godspeed to you in your campaign and in making this important decision."

To Minnesota crazies:Sorry to be obnoxious, but do...

2008-06-21T16:27:00.000-04:00

To Minnesota crazies:

Sorry to be obnoxious, but do any of these "liberals" in MN realize that by voting Pawlenty to become VP, you are promoting Carol Molnau to governor? It's like replacing Bush with Cheney...

@ anonymousyes a lot of polling companies came int...

2008-06-21T15:29:00.000-04:00

@ anonymous

yes a lot of polling companies came into existence, for example in 2000 when "voter.com" consistently made bush friendly polls that probably were made up out of thin air.

plenty of posters in 2000 repeatedly gave bush an artificial 3%-6% lead that he never really had, resulting in the news coverage being 75% negative for gore, and far more positive for bush.

Now here comes fivethirtyeight, and nate is using actual math and science, which i know, most republicans fear quite a bit, as they'd like to conserve the idea of us living on a flat earth.

i'm glad that al gore wrote the high performance computing act of 1987 that commercialized the internet, and made it possible to fight the right wing owned media with actual facts and information.

now we have a fighting chance, and we don't have to resort to believing political cronies and their made up polls.

To anonymous @22.55. I'm sure his baseball site i...

2008-06-21T14:14:00.000-04:00

To anonymous @22.55. I'm sure his baseball site is great. But baseball ain't politics, meaning his projections in baseball can't AFFECT the outcome. These projections, even if slightly biased, can AFFECT donations to campaigns, conventional wisdom, etc. That's the problem.

And a lot of people have been analyzing and projecting elections well before this site existed. He's still got work to do, and might want to read some political science.

Romney would guarantee a McCain loss. I will conce...

2008-06-21T09:41:00.000-04:00

Romney would guarantee a McCain loss. I will concede that Romney might help in MI with his family connections, may add something in NH, and may elp in the Southwest with the Mormon base. Assumin that a VP can have an impact (despite much evidence against that notion) here is why Romney would be a disaster.

The South hates him. Having lived in Nashville now for a year, I can't tell you the number of people who voted for Huchabee because while they hated McCain could not vote for a Mormon. The Romney pick yould be seen as a big FU to evangelicals. WHile they may still vote for McCain rather than the
black Muslim radical" they will do so without intensity. Unlike Bush 2004, McCain would not have the base fired up and would lose.

I am sorry, but voting for a candidate because you...

2008-06-21T03:12:00.000-04:00

I am sorry, but voting for a candidate because you want your governor promoted to VP for doing a lousy job as governor... is probably the worst logic I've ever heard.

I've got to concur with Lizzy.I've talked with sev...

2008-06-21T00:57:00.000-04:00

I've got to concur with Lizzy.

I've talked with several family who live out in Minnesota and they say they would seriously consider voting for a McCain/Pawlenty ticket as a way to get Pawlenty out of Minnesota for good. Of course they were more supportive of Clinton, and haven't quite jumped full on board with Obama yet (though they're strongly anti-McCain), so i'm sure that has something to do with it.

Ted - I'll bite. On what possible grounds would M...

2008-06-21T00:51:00.000-04:00

Ted - I'll bite. On what possible grounds would McCain choose a governor nobody has ever heard of with almost no experience who hails from a tiny state with only 3 electoral votes?

I am a Fractal said "...and now i was rewarded by ...

2008-06-21T00:43:00.000-04:00

I am a Fractal said "...and now i was rewarded by obama's numbers even improving more, with a +12 lead in your super tracker..."

The Super Tracker shows no such thing. You seem to be looking only at the blue dot on the scatter plot representing the insane results from Newsweek's poll. If you want to read the Super Tracker, you need to look at the red regression curve which smooths out the data to compensate for outliers. That curve shows Obama with a modest gain, but still hovering at about +5.5%.

Can’t realistically imagine McCain selecting anyon...

2008-06-21T00:30:00.000-04:00

Can’t realistically imagine McCain selecting anyone other than Palin as his Veep!

well Nate did say the other day that he has adjust...

2008-06-21T00:18:00.000-04:00

well Nate did say the other day that he has adjusted the super tracker so it will be "more sensitive..." which means "more of a roller coaster to drive us all zany."

personally I'd be happy if it just stayed 80%/20% in favor of Obama, and we can just coast with that through to November. that would be enough to overcome gop vote fraud wouldn't it? i mean this isn't Zimbabwe, is it?

It is seriously amusing to read all the blithe com...

2008-06-20T23:55:00.000-04:00

It is seriously amusing to read all the blithe comments here about Nate's supposed bias, or (even funnier) need for some "technical help" in making his site more sophisticated. I'm a longtime BaseballProspectus.com reader who has over the years come to nearly deify Mr. Silver for his projections of baseball player performances... and well, let's just say the uninformed comments are quite rich to behold.

Stick around folks. You have no idea what a statistically thorough mind you are dealing with. None whatsoever. The guy's one of the best around, for both robustness of method and for cold objectivity. And one thing is for certain, he's doing this for the love of prediction. He'd probably have a website forecasting weather if he had any background in meteorology. It's an addiction, I imagine.

(Though I'm sure someone will entertainingly point...

2008-06-20T21:56:00.000-04:00

(Though I'm sure someone will entertainingly point out in comments how opinions like these are ruining the purity and sanctity of the site.)

As someone who probably-not-so-entertainingly pointed out the loss of sanctity on this site in the Ferrarro thread, I only did so because of the random, visceral insult. There's a difference between making a specific (and debatable) charge against a public figure and making a generalization about a group of people who are by definition ignorant. I appreciate most of what Sean posts, it's just the random, juvenile insults that occasionally pop up that degrade the rest of the writing.

I'm hardly the average/uninformed/whatever Wiscons...

2008-06-20T21:48:00.000-04:00

I'm hardly the average/uninformed/whatever Wisconsin voter, but I definitely support Obama and Pawlenty as McCain's VP wouldn't sway that.

However, I do have a liberal friend who lives in Minnesota who told me that he'd vote for McCain if Pawlenty was his veep pick. Not because he likes Pawlenty but because, in his words, it would get Pawlenty out of the governor's mansion.

I note with irony how many comments the "unpopular...

2008-06-20T20:31:00.000-04:00

I note with irony how many comments the "unpopular" Sean posts consistently get.

MVRed.com said... (paraphrase) Romney for VP

Please, please, please. Nothing would make this Democrat happier than Romney on the ticket. It would guarantee an Obama victory in W.Va. and could sway several states with influential numbers of evangelical voters.

The evangelicals have spent decades warning their faithful that Mormon's are, literally, doing the devil's work. McCain's problems with the faith community will multiple considerably throughout the bible belt if Romney is chosen as VP.