Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Tallahassee, Florida, Moments Ago

酒店經紀人, 菲梵酒店經紀, 酒店經紀, 禮服酒店上班, 酒店小姐兼職, 便服酒店經紀, ...

2009-10-02T07:51:33.633-04:00

酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店經紀,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店工作,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
菲
梵,

^^ very nice 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵...

2009-03-12T21:48:00.001-04:00

^^ nice blog!! ^@^徵信, 徵信網, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵...

2009-03-12T21:48:00.000-04:00

情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,...

2009-02-08T22:59:00.000-05:00

nothing important to say except that girl is hot. ...

2008-11-02T15:31:00.000-05:00

nothing important to say except that girl is hot. i love this election.

One of the things that stands out about this campa...

2008-11-02T14:13:00.000-05:00

One of the things that stands out about this campaign is that McCain's team is incompetent compared with Obama's. The team is probably infected by the same neo-con philosophy that led to Rumsfeld's "stuff happens" about the looting in Iraq and Brownie as head of FEMA. If you believe in your heart that government bureaucracy is inherently incompetent, then the only possible reason you would choose government service is for personal advantage (whether power, future career opportunity as a lobbyist or access to the perks of power). Think about it. Would you choose to work in an organization that you despise?

So by default, most workers on the McCain campaign (outside of his circle of personal friends) will at best have objectives that don't necessarily coincide with getting McCain elected. At worst, the team members will be incompetent themselves.

The shoddy staff work is evidenced by:
1) The campaign's near bankruptcy before the NH primary. Contrast that with Obama's financial management even before the donations started pouring in.
2) The selection of Sarah Palin as VP. Surely there was some other person who
3) The back-biting and in-fighting. This may simply be rats realizing that the ship is sinking and would happen even in a well-managed campaign, but it adds to the appearance that no one is in charge.
4) Palin got pranked. Staff should have known that a real head of state would not be phoning in for a personal call this close to the election. And if they did catch it, but Palin overrode them?

I for one, welcome our new Democratic overlords. They're keeping their eye on the ball and their head in the game.

wv: sufied - If you mess with a Sufi, you get sufied. As Danny DeVito once said "Sufis Rule!"

wv after screen refresh

We gotta make sure we keep Obama's feet to the cha...

2008-11-02T12:27:00.000-05:00

We gotta make sure we keep Obama's feet to the change fire after he takes office.

We all got lazy after Clinton took office and he was not as effective as he could have been.

Early voting update:NC-2,661,110 voted which is 75...

2008-11-02T11:25:00.000-05:00

Early voting update:

NC
-2,661,110 voted which is 75% of the toal voted in 2004..AMAZING!!

-AA turnout is 26% of early vote(models have AA at 19-20% of electorate)

As a great relative of mine said, it's all math

2008-11-02T11:20:00.000-05:00

As a great relative of mine said, it's all math

OpenID asjohnson said... Actually, it might be...

2008-11-02T11:15:00.000-05:00

OpenID asjohnson said...

Actually, it might be unclear how to fill a senate vacancy in Alaska.

The US constitution gives the state legislature the right to allow the executive to appoint, but the law denying that right and requiring an election was passed not by the legislature, but by ballot measure.

If so, then it was passed by a legislatively enacted ballot initiative process, which the SCOTUS has previously upheld in the context of Article V constitutional amendment ratification (in that case, I believe it was by Hawaiian voters, but I can't recall the case or the amendment).

new thread

2008-11-02T11:09:00.002-05:00

new thread

From a purely medical perspective, the fact that T...

2008-11-02T11:09:00.001-05:00

From a purely medical perspective, the fact that Trig has Down's syndrome makes him far more likely to be Sarah Palin's child than Bristol's. If Bristol was 16 (?) at Trig's birth her chances of giving birth to a baby with Down's would be 1 in 1250, and if Palin was 43 hers would be 1 in 50.

Obviously this doesn't prove anything, but the statistics make for fairly compelling data.

There's lots of info about this online but an example of a risk chart is at:
http://www.ds-health.com/risk.htm

wv: persts. The trolls on here are real persts. ;-)

asjohnson-Very interesting, thanks for the info!I ...

2008-11-02T11:09:00.000-05:00

asjohnson-

Very interesting, thanks for the info!

I guess federal and constituion willtrump, but that would add another fun fight to this election.

Vote Stevens! The kawyers will love you...

Nancy Pfotenhauer's pfucking pfine.

2008-11-02T11:08:00.000-05:00

Nancy Pfotenhauer's pfucking pfine.

I know everyone is getting a little nervous. So I ...

2008-11-02T11:06:00.000-05:00

I know everyone is getting a little nervous. So I put together the battleground states graphs from pollster all on one page for easy reading. I find it reassuring. Have I got the tiers right?

Battleground States

Nancy Pfotenhauer is in the Republican Talking Hea...

2008-11-02T11:05:00.000-05:00

Nancy Pfotenhauer is in the Republican Talking Head Penalty Box for saying really, really dumb things.

It looks like the penalty Box of a Philadelphia Flyers-Boston Bruins 1970s game.

Meanwhile, name a substantial faux-pas by an Obama talking head.

Actually, it might be unclear how to fill a senate...

2008-11-02T11:04:00.000-05:00

Actually, it might be unclear how to fill a senate vacancy in Alaska.

The US constitution gives the state legislature the right to allow the executive to appoint, but the law denying that right and requiring an election was passed not by the legislature, but by ballot measure.

AAs went something like 89% for Kerry in PA if I a...

2008-11-02T11:03:00.001-05:00

AAs went something like 89% for Kerry in PA if I am not mistaken.

Eric-I bet Nate gets the last three in MT and not ...

2008-11-02T11:03:00.000-05:00

Eric-

I bet Nate gets the last three in MT and not ND.

Blogger Eric said...Oh yeah north Dakota is 3, no...

2008-11-02T11:02:00.001-05:00

Blogger Eric said...
Oh yeah north Dakota is 3, not 4, so, [...]

He could also get from 306 to 347 with Ohio, Indiana, and Arizona. Swapping Missouri or Indiana would work too, but that'd defeat one of the other predictions.

CNN's last national poll just stated on Late Editi...

2008-11-02T11:02:00.000-05:00

CNN's last national poll just stated on Late Edition:

O: 53
M: 46

newsinOH said... nam vet,Roughly speaking (which m...

2008-11-02T11:00:00.000-05:00

newsinOH said...
nam vet,

Roughly speaking (which may drive numbers people crazy!), OH has approx 8 million voters

Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) has 1 million of them

Franklin County (Columbus): 3/4 mill

Hamilton (Cincy): 1/2 mill

Summit (Akron): 1/3 mill

Montgomery (Dayton): 1/3 mill

Just some basic guidelines . . .

Hey bud,

Nate made his prediction here:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/opinions/pages/pundit-predictions/index.html?hpid=opinionsbox1

347 electoral votes, no Ohio. I'm almost sure this is where he gets 347:

Kerry states 252 +

Iowa 7
New Mexico 5
Nevada 5
Virginia 13
Colorado 9
Florida 27
North Carolina 15
Indiana 11
North Dakota 3

Meaning McCain wins:

Ohio 20
Georgia 15
Missouri 11
Montana 4
etc.

Work your magic bro. Gotta flip OH.

Nancy and Carly are enjoying themselves somewhere ...

2008-11-02T10:58:00.000-05:00

Nancy and Carly are enjoying themselves somewhere together in real America!

wv:antexpo speaks for itself - an exhibition of ants!

Tom Brokaw is a douche-bag. He's another one of t...

2008-11-02T10:57:00.001-05:00

Tom Brokaw is a douche-bag. He's another one of those bobble head "journalists" that does no research and just sits there and reads what is written for him.

So sad.

I haven't seen Nancy Pfot-pfot-pfotenhauer recentl...

2008-11-02T10:57:00.000-05:00

I haven't seen Nancy Pfot-pfot-pfotenhauer recently. Where has she gone? (Fake Virginia?)

[swoodl]