Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: 538's Battlegrounds as of Mid-September

^^ very nice 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵...

2009-03-12T02:11:00.001-04:00

^^ nice blog!! ^@^徵信, 徵信網, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵...

2009-03-12T02:11:00.000-04:00

徵信社, 感情挽回, 挽回感情, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 捉姦, 徵信公司, ...

2009-02-09T21:45:00.000-05:00

情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,...

2009-01-19T09:19:00.000-05:00

Yeah. No doubt the Rs are racists.Which is why whe...

2008-09-17T06:19:00.000-04:00

Yeah. No doubt the Rs are racists.

Which is why when Clarence Thomas got nominated he was called an Uncle Tom. By the left.

No racism there.

His opinions on Kelo and Raich were outstanding. But the "real party of the little people™" doesn't like him.

Ink,Proportional representation is bad. It faction...

2008-09-17T06:14:00.000-04:00

Ink,

Proportional representation is bad. It factionalizes government.

Our system drives the parties to the center. More stable.

In order to move the government you have to first move the people. A good idea.

Morg said... I'd love to hear from some of the ...

2008-09-17T06:12:00.000-04:00

Morg said...

I'd love to hear from some of the stable Republicans on the board whether they'd be comfortable with Palin as President should McCain keel over (assuming they were elected). Would she be a beacon of moral certainty and lead us into a war with a rallying cry of "God's will"?

Most people don't get Palin. She is a Libertarian-Republican from the most libertarian state in the union.

Her personal views are just that. She Governs like Reagan - hard core socon beliefs - leave us alone governing style.

As to Palin becoming President if Johnny Mac dies in office? Don't tease me dude.

BTW if any one is going to put an end to the Drug War it will be Palin.

filistro said... M Simon... after the posts rea...

2008-09-17T06:07:00.000-04:00

filistro said...

M Simon... after the posts reach 200, they no longer update on this page. To access posts beyond that point you need to go to the "Post Comments" screen, then click on "newer" posts in the upper right-hand corner.

OK. Thanks! I hope you read this. :-)

Congratulations to Congratulations to President-El...

2008-09-17T03:06:00.000-04:00

Congratulations to Congratulations to President-Elect McCain!!!

...for filling every comment section on this blog with random nonsensical prognostications!!! Nevermind the sophisticated statistical models, everyone pay attention to Congratulations to President-Elect McCain!!! now!!!

What great insights can we expect tomorrow?!!! I'll bet it has to do with Obama losing in a landslide in the future space where Congratulations to President-Elect McCain!!! resides!!!

Stupid liberals, or "libs" as someone once said -- and Congratulations to President-Elect McCain!!! quickly repeated it!!!

nicholas;Long story short, you have a jaded and on...

2008-09-17T00:52:00.000-04:00

nicholas;

Long story short, you have a jaded and one-sided view of history quite well framed in order to make you feel good about yourself.

You should have started your little lesson with "In order to support the belief of my moral superiority, this is what I believe happened with the political parties..."

Oz.

Why is the Deep South, once solidly Democrat in th...

2008-09-17T00:45:00.000-04:00

Why is the Deep South, once solidly Democrat in the 1860s, now just as solidly Republican? Same question for the Once-Republican Northeast? Economic issues? Cultural issues? Race issues? Party Changes? There's plenty of fun discussion to be had debating why two heavily devisive portions of the country both flipped Party Affiliation...and are yet again quite divisive in their politics.

On the issue of Civil Rights, the Democrats in the 50's and 60's split among Northern/Southern lines. The Northern coalition won, and the Southern coalition temporarily created the Dixiecrat party, which eventually more or less was absolved by the Republican party. Once LBJ signed the Civil Rights Act of 1964, this split was pretty much permanent. Legend has it that while signing that Act, LBJ said "We (Democrats) have lost the South for a generation."

Long story short, the South is generally racist compared to the rest of the country/world and the GOP (especially starting with Nixon) played to the Racism in order to win power.

I can do the opposite, sort of. It is not part of ...

2008-09-17T00:39:00.000-04:00

I can do the opposite, sort of. It is not part of Virginia and is "West Virginia" instead because it opposed secession during the Civil War.

Which always brings a fun question: Why is the Deep South, once solidly Democrat in the 1860s, now just as solidly Republican? Same question for the Once-Republican Northeast? Economic issues? Cultural issues? Race issues? Party Changes? There's plenty of fun discussion to be had debating why two heavily devisive portions of the country both flipped Party Affiliation...and are yet again quite divisive in their politics.

Drew,There are two bits of evidence that I know th...

2008-09-17T00:38:00.000-04:00

Drew,
There are two bits of evidence that I know that MIGHT suggest more -- or just more open -- racism in WV. While I can see the WV border from my backyard, I don't know the state very well. Thus, I am NOT claiming that WV is more racist, but only offering evidence that could suggest that it MIGHT be more racist.

First, the exit polls from the WV primary had a high number of people who said that race was an important consideration for them, and Obama lost that group handily. Second, there was anecdotal evidence from Obama volunteers that they encountered far more hostility and open bigotry than in any other state. Given that the campaign was looking to explain an impending huge loss, this can should probably be taken with a grain of salt.

Drew said-"I think the "racist West Virginians" is...

2008-09-17T00:32:00.000-04:00

Drew said-

"I think the "racist West Virginians" is a ridiculous argument that stinks of mainstream media simple-mindedness. There is little reason for me to believe that West Virginia is any more racist than any other place in the U.S. If anyone could provide me with a reason to believe that, please do so."

I can do the opposite, sort of. It is not part of Virginia and is "West Virginia" instead because it opposed secession during the Civil War.

This campaign has followed a trendline of its own:...

2008-09-17T00:26:00.000-04:00

This campaign has followed a trendline of its own:

Obama: "Change"
McCain: "I'm About Change Too!"

Obama: "McCain Lies"
McCain: "Obama Lies More!"

Obama: "Economy In Crisis"
McCain: "Economy Is Sound...Wait, I Mean I Think Its In Crisis Too!"

Obama: "Enough!"
McCain: "Ya...Enough!" (I chuckled when I heard McCain's passionate quote on this just today)

One side just follows the talking points of the other. The McCain Camp is trying desperately to drown-out Obama...by actually REPEATING him. And heck, why not? Its a 'sound' strategy, that for his base at least, is working wonderfully. And could even confuse some swing-voters down the stretch.

John McCain
Election First

Corruption? In government? Say it ain't so!One thi...

2008-09-17T00:23:00.002-04:00

Corruption? In government? Say it ain't so!

One thing that bjb and pete seem to be forgetting is that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac... DIDN'T DEAL WITH INDIVIDUAL LOANS.

They bought up bundled mortgages from banks and lenders on the assumption that the originating lenders had been working with people who could possibly pay off the loans.

This happened NATIONWIDE. As people began to default on their debts, the originating lenders had been payed, and left the next financial institution holding the bag. Fannie and Freddie were at the top, a hybrid privatized government institution that had to be held up or risk global economic damage.

So, what happened to make a system that had been running for 50+ years suddenly collapse?

Could it have been the loosening of Federal Regulations keeping financial institutions separate, written by the then-head of the Committee on Housing and Banking, One Phil Gramm?

The same Phil Gramm who received over $1 million in campaign contributions from financial institutions from 94-2000?

The same Phil Gramm who became a lobbyist for UBS, asking congress to relax laws against "Predatory Lending", and made 700k+ in one year for that service?

The same Phil Gramm who claimed that this was a mental recession, and that America is a nation of whiners?

Yes, that Phil Gramm, former senator for Texas, former economic adviser to John McCain.

Naturally he's seeing it all fine and dandy; he made out like a bandit. I just hope that $700k was worth it. It's worth $91 billion+ to the rest of the taxpayers.

And if you think Gramm's been separated from the McCain campaign, consider that just last week, he was trying to pressure Ron Paul to endorse McCain.

Gramm's the man who threw the economy in the can.

No matter what Jim Johnson did as CEO, you can't say he wrote the bills and directly pressured congress to create this environment. Phil Gramm did.

Most we dems can take the blame for (considering the republicans controlled the Congress in 1999), is letting Bill Clinton sign Gramm's bill into law (although, that bill had a very important addition to prevent the merging institutions from selling consumer information, which was an extremely good thing to have.

"He'll sooner get KY!"No, no, no no, no. Sadly, h...

2008-09-17T00:23:00.001-04:00

"He'll sooner get KY!"

No, no, no no, no. Sadly, he has essentially no chance in KY, whereas WV is conceivable (though not really plausible). I would bet my house on Obama losing KY. If Obama wins 40 states, he'll still lose KY.

Does campaigning by surrogates consist entirely of...

2008-09-17T00:23:00.000-04:00

Does campaigning by surrogates consist entirely of doing rallies? Is this likely to be very helpful?

I'm just wondering...say Obama put both Clintons in Ohio for the next 2 months. How many points do you think that would be worth in the polls?

Pete Kent said-"As I said in my first post this ev...

2008-09-17T00:21:00.001-04:00

Pete Kent said-
"As I said in my first post this evening at the end of the prior page, I think Mccain is about to enter a "pause" period in the campaign and not work too hard to change the dynmaic. He is going to let the Rep Party condition the marketplace so as to aid the Congressional Ballot with its massive War Chest."

Would that be meno-pause that McCain is entering?

I do not see WV flipping either. It may end up being fairly close though. Stranger things have happened.

Obama's ground game and turnout of newly registere...

2008-09-17T00:21:00.000-04:00

Obama's ground game and turnout of newly registered voters vs. Bradley Effect

Honestly, that's what it all comes down to.

Petekent, I agree with your assessment that Obama ...

2008-09-17T00:20:00.000-04:00

Petekent, I agree with your assessment that Obama dissed them in the primaries. That's where my thinking and questioning stems from. I think the "racist West Virginians" is a ridiculous argument that stinks of mainstream media simple-mindedness. There is little reason for me to believe that West Virginia is any more racist than any other place in the U.S. If anyone could provide me with a reason to believe that, please do so.

I dunno. In theory, if Obama made a serious push ...

2008-09-17T00:19:00.000-04:00

I dunno. In theory, if Obama made a serious push for WV, I think he'd take it. I agree that he seriously dissed them in the primaries, and that's why WV isn't voting for him now. I can't figure out the logic here: Obama's spending heavily in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia, which means he's getting the West Virginia markets anyways. He could probably get 5% more there just by spending a day there. Internal polling must show it to be a total waste, or something. I don't get it.

I doubt there is a state in the country where he'd get more votes/hour spent. But TV and volunteers won't cut it.

axmxz,To defend PeteKent, he was answering a quest...

2008-09-17T00:17:00.002-04:00

axmxz,
To defend PeteKent, he was answering a question he posed earlier: what is the furthest reach for each candidate that is still plausible. I think his IN answer is pretty darn good, actually.

The big problem for McCain is that I can reel off more than a half dozen states that Obama could win if all went well, whereas McCain has half as many. Could he plausibly win OR or WA? Not really, barring a big shift overall.

I think the reason for this is because Obama's ground game could POTENTIALLY be a huge factor that could overcome a small polling deficit. People are also angry at Bush, and so it's easier to see them deciding at the end that Obama is a safe enough choice and breaking heavily for him. Perhaps I'm seeing things through (from my view) rose-colored glasses, but I do think the intangibles favor Obama, even if the numbers are close right now.

I think Florida goes before Indiana. I know it's ...

2008-09-17T00:17:00.001-04:00

I think Florida goes before Indiana. I know it's close, but it just seems like one of those states where 50.1% are entrenched against Obama.

Hey, xkcd.com gave you a shout-out!http://xkcd.com...

2008-09-17T00:17:00.000-04:00

Hey, xkcd.com gave you a shout-out!

http://xkcd.com/477/