Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Voting Early in Battleground States

酒店經紀人, 菲梵酒店經紀, 酒店經紀, 禮服酒店上班, 酒店小姐兼職, 便服酒店經紀, ...

2009-10-08T04:54:49.986-04:00

酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店經紀,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店工作,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
菲
梵,

The information on Ohio is inaccurate. Ohio's no ...

2008-08-28T09:08:59.795-04:00

The information on Ohio is inaccurate. Ohio's no reason absentee voting 'early vote' period runs from September 30 to November 3 (so long as an absentee ballot is postmarked by Nov. 3 a board of elections will count it). Anyone can vote absentee for any reason during that entire 35 day period. Sean might be confusing the absentee voting period with the five-day period that runs from Sept 30-Oct 6 where people can both register and vote simultaneously, as early voting starts September 30 and the registration period ends October 6. In fact, the Ohio Secretary of State has issued a directive mandating boards of elections to develop procedures to allow people to register, and then vote in one trip to their board of election office during the Sep. 30-Oct. 6 period. But October 6 does not mark the end of early absentee voting; rather absentee voting extends up to Nov. 3.

Hey folks, I may be able to clarify somewhat about...

2008-08-27T22:28:34.395-04:00

Hey folks, I may be able to clarify somewhat about Virginia absentee.

Virginia is an odd state in terms of voting. First of all, a lot of college towns in Virginia make it very hard for students to vote locally. For example, there are no polling places on Virginia Tech's campus, if I remember correctly. Local re-registration for college students is discouraged.

Absentee ballots are not hard to get, though people do tend to forget to apply for them by the deadline. There are usually ballot-request drives alongside the voter-registration drives.

The trick is how they COUNT the absentee ballots. That is to say, they supposedly don't count them at all unless it's likely that the absentee ballots will change the outcome of the election.

Anyway, you should double-check all of this. I've been living in Texas now for just over a year, and I did finally re-register in Blacksburg (where VT is) my fourth year there--thus, didn't vote absentee after that--so my memory may be faulty.

Cheers,
John Woods

I hope Sean has voted early - the 'tosser'.

2008-08-27T20:16:31.255-04:00

I hope Sean has voted early - the 'tosser'.

Nate just posted a nice short congratulation to Ob...

2008-08-27T19:12:51.088-04:00

Nate just posted a nice short congratulation to Obama on this historic day.

http://www.wesh.com/download/2008/0827/17312639.pd...

2008-08-27T19:12:02.051-04:00

http://www.wesh.com/download/2008/0827/17312639.pdf

Mason-Dixon Poll with all the fun data.

This is a good result for Obama in FL but it´s his...

2008-08-27T19:10:24.922-04:00

This is a good result for Obama in FL but it´s his the first lead since July (Quinnipiac).

@eponymous: Here's the link for the new Mason Dixo...

2008-08-27T19:00:00.964-04:00

@eponymous: Here's the link for the new Mason Dixon poll.

http://www.news-press.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080827/NEWS0107/80827047/1075

BenJones wrote, "I think the bump Obama will recei...

2008-08-27T18:59:38.124-04:00

BenJones wrote,

"I think the bump Obama will receive from his GOTV effort will be relatively small."

How small doesn't matter? If this election is inside of 300 EV we may well have either a single tipper or a few states under 1%. An extra net 20,000 votes in Colorado from superior GOTV is huge. If it cost me $50 per marginal net vote, that $1 million delivering 20,000 is the best money I could spend. All the down ticket races that effort tips are freebies.

Obama's ground game should NOT be underestimated. It will be impressive and might well be the difference in the race.

The GOP has zero ground energy ... it reminds me of Dole in 1996.

Our advantage is that our people vote out of a sense of duty and responsibility and tend to be more self-reliant. (Please don't take that as an insult to Ds, its simply a true observation).

McCain was the correct choice by default. As much as he aspires to be; he is not Reagan.

Cheers

How about we who are pro-life stop being accused o...

2008-08-27T18:59:12.697-04:00

How about we who are pro-life stop being accused of being mouth breathing sexists who want to rule over women as chattel?

BenJones,GOTV efforts are all about getting a smal...

2008-08-27T18:54:31.141-04:00

BenJones,

GOTV efforts are all about getting a small bump in the right places in order to win. I live in Alabama, and there is practically no ground game here, and there shouldn't be because Obama won't win this state. But in places like Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, etc, where the impact could be such a large portion of the margin between candidates is what makes it important.

Look at it this way: If Al Gore had a ground game, or a more effective ground game, in Florida that would have produced 0.25% more turnout for him, he would have won by 8,000-10,000 votes.

Now John, you make a good point. Pro-Choice is a m...

2008-08-27T18:53:11.690-04:00

Now John, you make a good point. Pro-Choice is a much fairer and accurate portrayal of people's position than pro-abrtion. But then you go and trash genuine pro-lifers, (as almost all pro-life are genuine about their beliefs) as doing so for selfish motives. You should be more fair.

As a McCain supporter I am worried about what is b...

2008-08-27T18:44:55.013-04:00

As a McCain supporter I am worried about what is by all accounts the huge gap in the quality of their respective ground games. Yet I wonder if Sean is overrating the importance of ground organization. In these mass media dominated dominated times with relatively weak levels of party loyalty GOTV efforts have become increasingly less effective. I think the bump Obama will receive from his GOTV effort will be relatively small.

Only one thing would guarantee a no vote on Presid...

2008-08-27T18:33:14.636-04:00

Only one thing would guarantee a no vote on President from me and that would be McCain picking a pro murder VP. I hope it doesn't come to that but I will never vote for a pro abortion candidate. Millions of voters would be in the same boat.

Either they don't have all their delegates present...

2008-08-27T18:32:44.646-04:00

Either they don't have all their delegates present, or they want to make sure the nominee's home state puts him over the top for symbolic reasons.

I figure someone here knows - why would a state pa...

2008-08-27T18:32:01.010-04:00

I figure someone here knows - why would a state pass on the roll call?

Wow, you're amazing. That's all that need be said....

2008-08-27T18:29:45.336-04:00

Wow, you're amazing. That's all that need be said.

Mark-McCain was the commander of a naval squadron....

2008-08-27T18:27:37.953-04:00

Mark-

McCain was the commander of a naval squadron. That counts.

If Lieberman is VP, I stay home.

Lieberman will be a disaster for McCain, the conse...

2008-08-27T18:25:24.184-04:00

Lieberman will be a disaster for McCain, the conservatives and independents hates him.

VA Con, In a senator-versus senator election, nobo...

2008-08-27T18:22:30.572-04:00

VA Con,

In a senator-versus senator election, nobody has executive experience. The closest thing either candidate has come to running a large political organization is the running of their own campaigns, which are actually sizable organizations. By that standard, Obama seems to have done a great job by all accounts as an executive. By this standard, McCain did a terrible job as an executive for the first 8-10 months of his campaign but then really turned things around...on the job training, anyone?

deadpixel,1. Link?2. There's no way McCain can win...

2008-08-27T18:21:56.939-04:00

deadpixel,

1. Link?

2. There's no way McCain can win ANYTHING if he picks Lieberman, everyone knows it.

Obama leads in FL 45-44.If he pick Lieberman, he´l...

2008-08-27T18:21:44.491-04:00

Obama leads in FL 45-44.
If he pick Lieberman, he´ll win iin FL but he lost in OH, CO, NV, MT and lose the election.

VA CONI am in central FL where Fay just sat on top...

2008-08-27T18:16:29.175-04:00

VA CON

I am in central FL where Fay just sat on top of us for severaql days last week.

More specifically I live near the coast [on the ICW] south of Daytona in the infamous Volusia County FWIW.

Yes, the Volusia County of 2000 election 'fame'... as shown in the movies & documentaries.

Here in Volusia Co was where one electronic machine alone in 2000 reported a NEGATIVE 16,000 votes against Gore which was what initially caused all the news to pull their projections. And they never did fully explain it or get it resolved properly. In fact, yesterday was a primary election in FL and some of those same machines were still in use !

But this year locally we will have a strong DEM candidate Kosmas to run against the noxious REP Feeney [tainted by Jack Abramoff] for congress.

One can always dream !

Virginia Conservative said... I just wonder if Bid...

2008-08-27T18:16:15.709-04:00

Virginia Conservative said...
I just wonder if Biden is going to recount his story in the speech tonight.

Remember the facts--there was no errant drunken driver, no drinking, no speeding, and not even bad brakes according to the article Mason sent me.

You mean he hit them on purpose?
What other reason is left?

P.S. Had a post that didn't post earlier. Both Rasmussen and Gallup really did have a McCain +6 day on Monday by my math. So if Obama is +3 today and tomorrow (like he's had most of the time), he's going to appear to have a 4 point bounce on Friday.

I suppose that's one way to have a big bounce!

"I just heard an interesting tidbit from Fox News....

2008-08-27T18:15:22.276-04:00

"I just heard an interesting tidbit from Fox News. Apparently the McCain camp has reserved a special cell at Guantanamo Bay for the three weeks between the conventions and the debates. Seems the plan is to actually put Senator McCain away for those three weeks in order to make one last play on his POW status. Hopes are this will gin up sympathy and votes for a lackluster campaign that's got no other options left."
- Tito

You, sir, are a god. Nicely done.