Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Why Obama should visit Alaska, Part II

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2009-10-09T02:59:26.320-04:00

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2009-09-10T01:17:11.282-04:00

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2009-02-12T22:26:00.000-05:00

I have to agree with Pooh. Palin was the mayor of...

2008-07-06T22:11:00.000-04:00

I have to agree with Pooh. Palin was the mayor of Wasilla, AK (and former Miss Wasilla) only two years ago. Which means all of nothing. Sure she's very popular here in AK but soaring oil prices leading to massive budget surplus doesn't hurt the general attitude in AK. I just don't see it playing on a national scale. Sure, she loves her guns, the "first dude" is a manly man Alaskan, she supports energy and resource extraction but eh there are just too many holes in her to put her on the national stage. And yes, she'd be destroyed by any Obama VP in a debate.

Not to mention she recently gave birth to her FIFTH child at the age of 43 I believe. I doubt she has the time or experience to be a realistic VP candidate. If offered I wouldn't be terribly surprised if she turned it down.

I agree with myster about the jetlag but for a dif...

2008-06-19T22:48:00.000-04:00

I agree with myster about the jetlag but for a different reason. Obama is young and healthy, and McCain is a frail old man with one foot in the grave. Anything Obama can do that requires McCain to overexert himself will be a good idea.

I'm not kidding about that. Put the old goat through his paces. And, by the way, if this sounds "ageist," that's because it is. My 84-year-old mother is in a nursing home and she says everyone there thinks McCain is too old for the job. If anyone knows what it's like to be old, it's the old folks. Just ask 'em.

I honestly don't see Palin as a viable candidate.S...

2008-06-19T20:15:00.000-04:00

I honestly don't see Palin as a viable candidate.

She was the mayor of a 50,000 person town 2 years ago, and while she presents well enough up here, Alaska has never been confused with a sophisticated media market (see, e.g. Don Young). Also, she is a creationist. While that might play decently with the base, how would it affect swing voters. Finally, I think pretty much any of Obama's potential running mates would simply fricassee her in VP debates.

What's with all the jetlag digs? Even with headwi...

2008-06-19T20:03:00.000-04:00

What's with all the jetlag digs? Even with headwinds, Anchorage is only a three-hour flight from Seattle.

And no, not all Alaskans want to drill in ANWR. Lots of us want to leave it untouched.

As pertains to nothing, and everything. I'm a Ca...

2008-06-19T18:05:00.000-04:00

As pertains to nothing, and everything. I'm a California resident, and I'd rather they drill here than in Alaska. So there. They already have it set up in Santa Barbara, Ca and other wealthy - republican - areas, let the oil maniacs drill where they live, instead of pristine wilderness, like Alaska. I find it hard to believe Alaska residents want them to drill there. Is this really true?

You raise an interesting point, modeler. Even McCa...

2008-06-19T16:44:00.000-04:00

You raise an interesting point, modeler. Even McCain himself has said that his choice of running mate merits extra scrutiny. In the case of the AK governor, I think that could play in favor of the Republicans because it would imply a female president in a reasonably near future.

For that reason, by the way, it might be a tough sell within the Republican camp. When push comes to shove, I'm not sure they'll want to put a woman a heartbeat away from McCain's weak heart.

I tend to agree with people who think Palin is a s...

2008-06-19T14:36:00.000-04:00

I tend to agree with people who think Palin is a superstar in the making, but I think McCain needs a superstar already made.

Whether justified or not, many voters are concerned about McCain's age. These voters will give extra scrutiny to his VP choice. From what I've seen of Palin, I'm not convinced she can make a compelling case that she'd be "ready on day one." I have similar feelings about Jindal.

To use a baseball analogy, I don't expect the GOP to tap their farm system unless they become convinced this is a rebuilding year.

It's an interesting conundrum. If Obama goes there...

2008-06-19T14:33:00.000-04:00

It's an interesting conundrum. If Obama goes there, does he raise AK's profile and therefore Palin's status? If he doesn't go there, does he miss some electoral votes and the opportunity to help the Democrats down-ticket?

Maybe the answer is for him to wait until after the Republican convention. If they put Palin on the ticket, there's no way the Democrats will win the state at the top of the ticket. If they don't put her on the ticket, then Obama ought to go up there and make hay.

Agreed with the commenter above who said that Sara...

2008-06-19T14:07:00.000-04:00

Agreed with the commenter above who said that Sarah Palin is the strongest GOP VP candidate. She's a superstar in the making and would give his campaign a massive boost.

Nate, where is Alaska on your Tipping Point and Mu...

2008-06-19T13:41:00.000-04:00

Nate, where is Alaska on your Tipping Point and Must Win lists?

Any way you could make available the list for all states? Perhaps as a link from the front page?

Great points - and I definitely agree. He should v...

2008-06-19T13:15:00.000-04:00

Great points - and I definitely agree. He should visit Alaska. And like others have said the Senate race is close there and it is possible that their 3 EVs could flip the election if it ends up as close as 2000. With 40% of the population in one city - it should be an easier state to influence than others.

By the way, whoever said he's worried that McCain ...

2008-06-19T13:14:00.000-04:00

By the way, whoever said he's worried that McCain will pick AK Gov. Palin as his running mate is, in my opinion, on the right track.

it looks like obama already realizes alaska is in ...

2008-06-19T13:03:00.000-04:00

it looks like obama already realizes alaska is in play. hes airing his first general election ad there. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/06/19/obamas-first-general-elec_n_108065.html

i predict a visit sometime soon

I'm with you 100% on this Nate, and add more reaso...

2008-06-19T12:31:00.000-04:00

I'm with you 100% on this Nate, and add more reasons:

1) Per the Art of War it is important to attack an enemy at his strengths and AK is historically a strength.

2) AK gets bypassed in elections and every state has independents who'll switch if they just get a candidate to show up and ask for their votes.

3) With his planned international tour, it would be the perfect time to drop in on short notice, on his return to the states. Esp if he visits any oil states in the Middle East before the drop-in.

4) Energy states, which include (among others) PA and WV and MT (coal), LA and TX and AK (oil) could be offered something new: preference in alt. energy contracts from the feds, so they'll lose no jobs and may gain some as we break the fossil fuel habits.

5) Ted Stevens seat in the Senate

I doubt McCain will pick a VP to hold onto 3 electoral votes when Fl, OH, VA, NC, CO, NV, MI, MN, NM and IN may be in play.

Unlike past years, Obama's not resting over the summer and he has the cash to run an aggressive 25 state campaign.

I'm still eager to see fresh polls for MT, ND, SD and even the 1 district in NE that Obama has a shot at (for 1 EV). Add the improbable MS even, with its 35% black population, the highest anywhere except DC.

McSame has demonstrated that he makes more mistakes when the pressure's on, so I think Obama should pursue a full court press.

Here's the thing. If Virginia's a swing state, McC...

2008-06-19T12:22:00.000-04:00

Here's the thing. If Virginia's a swing state, McCain's already lost.

This thing's already gotten away from McCain. His people would have to dig up some serious dirt on Obama to even make a race of this thing. Color me skeptical on that.

On anonymous commenting. I keep having trouble get...

2008-06-19T12:01:00.000-04:00

On anonymous commenting. I keep having trouble getting the thing to register me, or accept the registration I use elsewhere from Blogger.

I counter this by signing my usual Blogger ID at the end.

On the Alaska trip. He probably can't work it in this time of year. The extra light is energizing. Problem is it can backlash when you go back to shorter daylight.

Having lived there for 14 years, I think the biggest benefit for him going is that Alaska has to be experienced to truly grasp the value of the land. Alaskan's get that and it would definitely help in the vote.

Again, there is a large active, reserve and retired millitary population in AK. One of the reasons it has been so reliably red. I think the troops there have done a lot of tours - and possibly more than other places. Like a lot of the enlisted folks, there is a bit of dissatisfaction with the GOP.

Where is the polling that says a majority of Alaskan's support drilling in ANWR?

This is the only one I have found:

Survey done by Dittman Research Corporation, April 1995

On an industry web site.

Ginny in CO

Continuing with my one-track thread of comments, t...

2008-06-19T11:29:00.000-04:00

Continuing with my one-track thread of comments, the turnout in Alaska in 2004 was 300,000. For argument's sake, let's say that McCain is currently up 6% in Alaska. That's 18,000 votes.

That means that if Obama can swing 9,000 voters, he gets an extra 3 EV.

How many voters can he swing with a personal visit? Nate, please add that to the list of requests from the peanut gallery. :-)

Anonymous 10:11It's basically an issue of diminish...

2008-06-19T11:27:00.000-04:00

Anonymous 10:11

It's basically an issue of diminishing returns in traditional swing states like the ones you list. They'll all be visited by both Obama and McCain dozens of times, so you have to compare the marginal benefit of the first day spent campaigning in Alaska vs. the 30-something-th day spent campaigning in Ohio.

Comment on FL: I do think the Q and ARG polls were...

2008-06-19T11:12:00.000-04:00

Comment on FL: I do think the Q and ARG polls were probably OTL, and the Rasmussen one catches reality as of 3 days ago. (All just "my opinion," of course.)

But then McCain made the mistake of raising the offshore drilling specter, and Bush reinforced it yesterday, followed by Gov. Crist.

This has the effect of once again tying McCain to Bush, and now Crist to both of them, on an issue that many Floridians are sensitive to. You can read editorials in St. Pete Times and Miami Herald today on the "pandering" by McCain and Crist.

McCain created his own wedge issue -- one that will wedge environmentally conscious Floridians of both parties away from his candidacy, and take their minds off some other issues.

So FL may well be in play because McCain made a major misstep and possibly a miscalculation that will assure that FL is in play. More polling there will tell.

Considering this post is about visiting Alaska I'l...

2008-06-19T11:11:00.000-04:00

Considering this post is about visiting Alaska I'll comment on that.
While at first Alaska seems tempting- youngest state- environmental issues, poor republican leadership presently- are tempting, it seems a trip would essentially be for state elections which would indeed in turn help Obama. However, for it to help Obama in this election he would have to bank on a national bump from visiting a neglected far out state.
Although one could argue that it is smart to press the 50 state plan- even if it seems states couldn't turn immediately so that they might in the future (think Howard Dean starting the plan 4 years ago thinking about the current western swing states), in my opinion it is more critical to make sure Obama wins now.
Here is my reasoning-
Yes Alaska has tightened but it is 3 EV. MI, OH, Fl, VI, NM, MO, CO, NV, NH, IN, and NC are all closer in polling or have been switching between the two candidates. Unlike Alaska all of these states are unquestionably in play- and more important states to win. Campaigning in Alaska over these states seems wrong. Plus, that list doesn't include MN, IA, WI, OR, or Penn which have seemed to drift into safer states but all of which McCain is pressing to get. Yes its nice to think about a president going to Alaska- but its more logical to think about a candidate winning- and Alaska seems to have little play in that. As has been noted- if OBama wins Alaska he would have probably already picked up 350+ EV's even before polls close there it would be so lopsided.
Going to Alaska would only make sense to me if Obama were so sure he's going to win (the odds right now may indicate thats fair) that he wants to push the Alaska senate vote over the top to help him reach a 60 senator filibuster in the senate. To me- i'd make absolutely sure going to a state that seems somewhat safe McCain over the dozen or so states I listed that are much closer and more important is really worth it.