Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: The Bradley Effect, Revisited

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2009-03-12T04:37:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-12T04:37:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-09T01:25:00.000-05:00

Shiatt said:"In fact, people forget that in 1982 t...

2008-10-22T23:53:00.000-04:00

Shiatt said:

"In fact, people forget that in 1982 there was also a gun control initiative on the California ballot that brought every gun nut in the state out in opposition. Likely these were folks who also didn't like talking to pollsters and were underrepresented in samples"

Add to this that there were a reecord number of absentee ballots that year. (I live here in CA and m old enough to remember)

The vast majority of those absentee ballots were for Dukey..(Bradley's opponent). I think Bill Schneider - CNN, has mentioned this a few times but it doesn't have legs... Some suggest that many of them were indeed motivated by the Gun issues. The Polling was actually "accurate" but when the unpooled absentee's were added in, it swung the race. (yes there were THAT many - I'm trying to recall if its the first years that we in CA did the absentee with no precondition.

I suggest a reverse-Bradley effect:There are peopl...

2008-10-22T16:29:00.000-04:00

I suggest a reverse-Bradley effect:
There are people who are telling pollsters that they are voting for the Republican ticket, but in the voting booth actually voting for Obama. Just sayin'

What is the deal with this new AP Poll - how is th...

2008-10-22T14:55:00.000-04:00

What is the deal with this new AP Poll - how is that they can come out with such a number that is different from everyone else? http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081022/ap_on_el_pr/ap_poll_presidential_race;_ylt=Asqh2JnfhU8nvc3r7BTiVu0DW7oF

Inmates To Cast Ballots In Vt., Maine

2008-10-22T14:47:00.000-04:00

Inmates To Cast Ballots In Vt., Maine

Hilary Clinton going to NH next week

2008-10-22T14:38:00.000-04:00

Hilary Clinton going to NH next week

New ad from an Winning Message Action Fund(abortio...

2008-10-22T14:24:00.000-04:00

New ad from an Winning Message Action Fund(abortion rights group) accuses McCain of something that pro-lifers say they wouldn't do: Jail women who seek abortions.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OETjrqZZLzg

Winning Message Action Fund

A 501(c)4 nonprofit affiliated with NARAL Pro-Choice New York

Thanks "Voice of the Midwest" for the recipe, and ...

2008-10-22T14:12:00.000-04:00

Thanks "Voice of the Midwest" for the recipe, and I have passed it to several of our group here to make for our Election night party here in Santiago, Chile, where we continue to gather ballots from abroad and send them off via diplomatic pouch from the US embassy back to the US. There are an estimated 6-7 million non-military expats in the world, and the voting percentage in 2004 was 10%. These voters lean Democratic, 70% to 30%, and Obama has field reps to try and get as many expat votes as possible. If you know ANYONE who lives outside the US and is potentially registered to vote, encourage them to go to www.votefromabroad.org as there is still time to vote, even if they do not yet have a ballot. They can still vote by requesting a ballot by mail and then, one or two days later, sending in the Federal Write-in Absentee Ballot. Any questions they have can be answered by the Obama field rep for their particular area of the world....

Most of you are too young to remember the Kennedy-...

2008-10-22T14:11:00.000-04:00

Most of you are too young to remember the Kennedy-Nixon election of 1960. Kennedy was labeled a papist and if elected the Vatican would control the USA. It didn't work because the electorate saw who Kennedy was during the presidential debate. They also saw who NIxon was and went for Kennedy. Too bad they didn't remember who Nixon was later on in our recent history. Yes it is sadly true that there are racists in our country who will never vote for a African-American candidate and there are those I call racists in hiding who will use any excuse other than racism not to vote for a black candidate. However, this year the vast majority of voters will not be voting white or black. They will be voting green i.e. their pocketbooks or lack thereof. People remember comments such as "I don't know much about the economy" or "Homeowner's who bought homes they couldn't afford should have their homes foreclosed". People also understand that calling Obama a socialist when he talks about national health insurance or middle class tax breaks is the height of deceit. A 700 billion dollar bailout for the private financial sector and the government buying banks is a form of corporate socialism. Calling Obama a socialist is not going to work. Most of voting America is POed and they want real change

Indiana needs to turn white on this map soon. We'...

2008-10-22T14:09:00.000-04:00

Indiana needs to turn white on this map soon. We've got a lot of white bread states polling well for Obama, I don't think PPP is such an outlier any more.

Funny how mrinsight22 rarely offers any insight.

2008-10-22T14:08:00.000-04:00

Funny how mrinsight22 rarely offers any insight.

@chopperjc,mrinsight22Gallup -2? We're reading dif...

2008-10-22T14:01:00.000-04:00

@chopperjc,mrinsight22

Gallup -2? We're reading different polls then. Here's what I see.

Registered voters: unchanged
Expanded likely voters: M -1
Traditonal likely voters: M -1, O +1

oh, and I also don't think the Bradley Effect woul...

2008-10-22T14:00:00.000-04:00

oh, and I also don't think the Bradley Effect would be nearly enough to save McCain now. There are two things that could do so IMO

1)Huge, game changing moment
2)Stolen election, vote rigging, fraud etc.

Obama's margin is now large enough to cover any Bradley Effect as it won't be larger than (guessing here) 5% at the absolutely outside, and more likely to top out well under that (or be reserve).

I should emphasise - I don't see any "Cold Feet Ef...

2008-10-22T13:58:00.000-04:00

I should emphasise - I don't see any "Cold Feet Effect" as new, but as PART OF any Bradley Effect. Rather than millions of people lying, I think it's a more likely cause.

One downside to early voting weeks before an elect...

2008-10-22T13:56:00.000-04:00

One downside to early voting weeks before an election is it increases the odds that piles of ballots will be "mislayed" or "lost" ot "taken home accidentally" by poll workers.

In Gallup, Obama dropped by 2 points across the board today and Obama dropped 2 points in IBD/TIPP too. Strangely, Obama soared in Zogby.

Here is the recent AP/GFK poll offers some contr...

2008-10-22T13:51:00.000-04:00

Here is the recent AP/GFK poll offers some contradiction.....

AP presidential poll: All even in the homestretch.

The poll, which found Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, supports what some Republicans and Democrats

from The Associated PressThe AP-GfK survey included interviews with a large sample of adults including 800 deemed likely to vote. Among all 1,101 adults interviewed, the survey showed Obama ahead 47 percent to 37 percent. He was up by five points among registered voters.

newsfOH, thanks for quoting the laws on this.

2008-10-22T13:46:00.000-04:00

newsfOH, thanks for quoting the laws on this.

The clothing thing is a distraction they do not ne...

2008-10-22T13:43:00.000-04:00

The clothing thing is a distraction they do not need, but in the end, it will not have much of a change on her already low numbers.

This is exactly why the clothing thing is so good for Democrats. If it dominates media coverage for a few days, it will help kill off the clock. McCain is way down and needs as much time as possible to mount a comeback. The less time he can control the media narrative, the less chance he can change the course of the campaign.

Gallup -22000 +2 what else is out there today?

2008-10-22T13:40:00.000-04:00

Gallup -2
2000 +2 what else is out there today?

indianaobamaniac,Per Nate, RCP's unreliability doe...

2008-10-22T13:39:00.000-04:00

indianaobamaniac,

Per Nate, RCP's unreliability doesn't come from any particular poll, but from their tendency to leave out polls that are favorable to Obama, and to allow old McCain-favorable polls to stay in the average longer. They don't seem to have a consistent system, so a pro-McCain bias slips in, possibly unconsciously.

Orrin...... please be quiet you are hurting my ear...

2008-10-22T13:38:00.000-04:00

Orrin...... please be quiet you are hurting my ears.

new post

2008-10-22T13:37:00.002-04:00

new post

I came up with a few admirable (but mistaken) reas...

2008-10-22T13:37:00.001-04:00

I came up with a few admirable (but mistaken) reasons to vote McCain and tried to dispel them. Copy & paste, or criticize, at will.