Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Dueling Ohio Polls

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2009-10-08T07:14:16.053-04:00

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2009-09-11T02:40:37.267-04:00

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2009-02-14T02:26:00.000-05:00

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2009-02-09T01:22:00.000-05:00

Hi Poblano: please see a bit of outlier polling an...

2008-07-23T15:23:00.000-04:00

Hi Poblano: please see a bit of outlier polling analysis I did (wrt Rasmussen's OH polls) in my DK diary: Rasmussen's OH polls have been outliers. thanks and regs! -- NL

Another explanation is that Obama simply can't sea...

2008-07-23T10:59:00.000-04:00

Another explanation is that Obama simply can't seal the deal with voters in Ohio who are undecided. McCain's lead in the Rasmussen poll increased significantly once the "leaners" were included.

On the Oil market: One must distinguish between p...

2008-07-23T10:01:00.000-04:00

On the Oil market: One must distinguish between production and supply. Today the price of oil is determined by OPEC controlling production. Supply, in economic terms, is the amount reasonably recoverable at a given price. Being the low cost producer, OPEC can increase the value of their oil reserves by pricing at the cost of recovery for the next lowest cost producer. Based on numbers reported in 1985 and adjusting for the decrease in the dollar value relative to oil has oil now selling at about the price needed to convert coal to synthetic oil. This is happening today in China where, like the U.S., considerable coal reserves reside. Once again, U.S. developed technology is being exploited abroad. This is a significant hurdle to be passed before Al Gore's challenge will be taken up.

On the Obama trip: he's generated talking points ...

2008-07-23T09:50:00.000-04:00

On the Obama trip: he's generated talking points that will carry him through the election whenever Republicans try to play the "experience" card. It didn't work for Hillary, and it won't work for McCain. It's not the polls taken now that matter, it's the exit polls, that have a history of accurate estimates (except in Ohio in 2004 and Florida in 2000) Obama has given up some polling points now to preempt Republican chatter. Experience is not a matter of time in place but of quality of results, and Obama is demonstrating that he is both able and willing to get the results that most Americans want. McCain cannot show anything comparable as he is both unwilling and unable to get favorable results.

Robert Taft, a conservative Republican, was govern...

2008-07-23T09:14:00.000-04:00

Robert Taft, a conservative Republican, was governor of Ohio in 2004 and allowed the Republican Party to interfere with voting rights in heavily Democratic precincts by their distribution of voting machines and their management of the registration procedures. (This is still an aggressive campaign tactic of the Republicans that the Democratic Party does not seem willing or able to challenge effectively.) Ted Strickland, a Democratic governor, will not allow this to happen, at least not so blatently. If Rassmussen is using "likely to vote" weights based on 2004 he may have a significant bias built in to his "quicky poll" results. Any evidence for this?

Hmm. I thought Rasmussen's Colorado poll last mon...

2008-07-23T00:42:00.000-04:00

Hmm. I thought Rasmussen's Colorado poll last month was of registered voters. Anyway, the point remains, you're still comparing apples to oranges, i.e. leaners to non-leaners. Can't do that.

IHD-I don't even have time for you. I earned my ph...

2008-07-23T00:07:00.000-04:00

IHD-
I don't even have time for you. I earned my phD in economics, taught for a little while, and work for a consulting firm as a commodity analyst.

You can spew puke all day long and blabber about your "understanding" of markets, but I doubt you've done 1/100th the work I have in studying these markets. To the uninformed such as yourself, yes, it would appear there are many esoteric variables that lack decent information to make any significant analysis on.

So explain it, asshole. If you're such a god damn expert. If you do it for a living it should be easy. What are some of those semingly "esoteric variables"? What do "these markets" know that isn't available to the general uninformed public? If you have such easy access to this information because you do it professionally, perhaps you could enlighten us instead of insulting us. I'm not asking for trade secrets mind you, but all day you've done nothing of any use. You haven't posted a single link, nor fact, nor figure, so forgive me if I conclude you aren't privy to any special knowledge or insight. Surely commodity traders such as yourself have some set of favorite sites that is useful to those in your field? Or a professional association? Or trade journals? I mean, you have to transmit information to one another some how.

It's just comforting that sub-human garbage like you are confined to trolling message boards to spew lies about your "vast market knowledge" while the rest of us who actually have a clue are actually out here in the real world in a position to make honest and accurate assessments and provide solutions.

Which one of us is posting under our real name and which is posting under some hyper-aggressive pseudonym? And I'm the sub-human one? Get a life, troll.

Naomi,You are in no position to lecture me. The d...

2008-07-22T23:05:00.000-04:00

Naomi,

You are in no position to lecture me. The distiction between leaned and non-leaned votes has nothing to do with the distiction bw RVs and LVs. It's a matter of asking a different question.

"Naomi--I was speaking of the leaned vote."Well Pe...

2008-07-22T22:27:00.000-04:00

"Naomi--I was speaking of the leaned vote."

Well Pete, if you've learned anything from hanging around this site, it's that you can't compare apples to oranges. Last month's Colorado poll by Rasmussen was a registered voter poll, and so the only viable comparison is with this month's registered voter figures, not the "leaners". That means Obama went from +2 to +7, which given the importance of Colorado in this election, is nothing to sneeze at.

anon @ 7:26 -t. bOONE pICKENS DOES SAY DRILL, dril...

2008-07-22T21:15:00.000-04:00

anon @ 7:26 -
t. bOONE pICKENS DOES SAY DRILL, drill, drill listen to what he says. We need to do everything.
You need to unplug your ears, it seems. Pickens knows better than anyone the waste of effort, time, and resources that an offshore expansion would mean.

http://thinkprogress.org/wonkroom/2008/07/22/pickens-rude-awakening/

1) One day polling is crap. The CO numbers look go...

2008-07-22T20:44:00.000-04:00

1) One day polling is crap. The CO numbers look good (I ignore the "leaners" number because it's the first time they've included it) and the OH numbers look back for Obama. How about a three-day sample? Rasmussen's state poll is suspect.

2) The trip abroad is absolutely the right thing to do, regardless of what happens in the short term polls. Every major poll showed the only real advantage McCain had over Obama was foreign policy and national security. This trip has already done much to erase those doubts - or at least bring Obama close to even. The election is not next week. It's in three months.

3) The 1980 analogies are apt. There are a lot of voters who don't like McCain but aren't sure about Obama. In 1980 voters knew they didn't like Carter but had doubts about Reagan until the debate. Then everybody moved to Reagan. This is very similar. Notice how McCain's numbers in the trackers have remained low, but Obama's have drifted to undecided?

The race is Obama's to lose.

-Elrod

Mark in VA,t. bOONE pICKENS DOES SAY DRILL, drill,...

2008-07-22T20:26:00.000-04:00

Mark in VA,

t. bOONE pICKENS DOES SAY DRILL, drill, drill listen to what he says. We need to do everything.

This whole off-shore drilling pander is unbelievab...

2008-07-22T19:48:00.000-04:00

This whole off-shore drilling pander is unbelievable. Do people honestly believe that the Saudi dessert sits a few miles off our coastline?

A bucket of water wouldn't have helped the Hindenburg. And it's not just "tree huggers" screaming--forget the environmental impact completely. Listen to T. Boone Pickens. If there was ever a man who understood the oil business, it's him. We CANNOT drill out of the problem.

I'm hard pressed to think of a bigger farce than this issue, except maybe the "missile defense system".

THE Ohio poll should ring a few alarm bells in the...

2008-07-22T19:41:00.000-04:00

THE Ohio poll should ring a few alarm bells in the Obama camp. Rasmussen usually know what they're doing, unlike PPPiss-take.

My theory for the Obama polling drop is: 1. Fallo...

2008-07-22T19:29:00.000-04:00

My theory for the Obama polling drop is:

1. Fallout from the New Yorker cover that led to nationwide discussion about Muslim connections and Michelle's militancy; and

2. Excessive fawning coverage of the Obamaplaooza tour creating a backlash.

Well, at least the Colorado poll is a bit of a con...

2008-07-22T19:23:00.000-04:00

Well, at least the Colorado poll is a bit of a consolation. I don't think there's been a single poll since January showing McCain ahead there - ditto Iowa and New Mexico.

Ohio is always tough for Democrats. Too many hicks in the southeastern part of the state.

What is the likelihood of Indiana being more pro-Democrat than Ohio this time around?

I think it's a shame that people think gas prices ...

2008-07-22T19:18:00.000-04:00

I think it's a shame that people think gas prices are linked to the potential 150,000 barrels of oil a day we'd be opening up in 20 years with offshore drilling, when 500,000 barrels a day today from Saudi Arabia didn't budge them an inch.

THINK!

Nothing like using people's ignorant conclusions to sway their opinion in order to win an election!! God Bless America!

The Rasmussen Colorado Poll with leaner's is prett...

2008-07-22T19:01:00.000-04:00

The Rasmussen Colorado Poll with leaner's is pretty close to his last poll. Obama picks up one point on McCain Inside the margin of error.

The Ohio Poll and PPP poll are way off from one another. 2 point lead for McCain at the mos tin Ohio. However, except for Colorado, McCain seems to be closing the gap. It has been a great week of polling for McCain. This has been the first weekend in the Rasmussen Poll to show McCain holding his own in his tracking poll. Even Gallup tightened after just one day.

Obama with all the coverage should have pulled out to a much bigger lead in these tracking polls.

As an Obama supporter, and considering the condition of the country, I really thought he would be out to a 10 point lead for the entire month of July. With the approaching Olympics, there will be an almost dead calm in the nation as everybody tunes to the Olympic coverage.

I really think gas prices and the Democrats no drill policy is beginning to take effect on the polls.

Does anybody else have any thoughts on this issue?

Ohio Polling Challenge!I'd like to see people try ...

2008-07-22T18:49:00.000-04:00

Ohio Polling Challenge!

I'd like to see people try and plug some numbers into Nate's World's Simplest Election Projection spreadsheet and come up with a McCain 10% lead in Ohio.

See if you can do it! First, try without changing turnout from the 62% Dem, 62% Rep and 55% Indep. that Nate has. based on 2004.

Then notice Nate's ultimate assumption was that Obama would ultimately get 83% of Democrats (Kerry got 88%) and McCain: 14% of Democrats, while Republicans give McCain an 87%-9% edge (Bush got 93% of Republicans - But this election is much less polarized than the last one).

Now, let's give McCain a 25% lead among Independents: 55% - 30% with 15% undecided/DK. Here's the result. Now you try and report what you find:

World's Simplest Election Projection
www.FiveThirtyEight.com Turnout D62%, R62%, I55%
Party ID% as stated in poll: 43%D, 36%R, 21%I.
Obama McCain Barr Nader
Democratic Vote: Tota:43.00 Obama: 83.00% McCain: 14.00% DK/Other: 3%

Republican Vote: McCain:87.00% Obama: 9%, Other/Barr/DK: 4%

Independents: Obama: 30.00% McCain:55.00% Nader/Barr/Other/DK:11%

Total: Obama: 45.60 McCain: 48.74 Other: 5.76%

RESULT: McCain +3.1.

In short, given any remotely realistic Democratic loyalty to Obama (-5% from Kerry's 2004 totals, despite Democratic registration gains since 2004), and giving McCain an ABSOLUTELY ABSURD 25% lead among Independents which will NEVER IN HELL happen on election day unless Obama publicly declares he's a Muslim, McCain still gets around 3% lead.

No way in hell Obama is going to wind up with 74% Democratic support. That's just a ridiculous likely voter screen!

Let's see how you do! And show us the results!

I think Ohio is a very blue collar, red neck state...

2008-07-22T18:07:00.000-04:00

I think Ohio is a very blue collar, red neck state. Enough like its conservative neighbors as to make it more hospitable to McCain than Obama. Kerry was a bit of a buffoon, but Obama is like a man from Mars to many of these people. His elegance just turns them off. Mark me on this. I do not see Obama winning OH. he is no Ted Strickland!

Naomi--I was speaking of the leaned vote.

2008-07-22T18:04:00.000-04:00

Naomi--I was speaking of the leaned vote.