Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Georgia: Martin Stuck in Neutral?

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2009-04-16T04:15:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-08T21:13:00.000-05:00

AssMonkey Rider is nothing but an attention seeker...

2008-11-26T00:28:00.000-05:00

AssMonkey Rider is nothing but an attention seeker who quips and recapitulates on topics long abandoned. He has inadvertently portrayed himself as an arm-chair warrior that spends his lonely times pounding on keyboard just so the rest of the visitors see him as a finger wagging aunt Sally who supposedly restores common sense while in reality, he rakes fingernails across his own inner chalkboard so loud that it reaches across the Internet.

A quintessential illustration of a self-styled nabob of ninnyism. Stop enabling him.

Mule RiderCome on, Robby. Name one issue where I'v...

2008-11-25T22:51:00.000-05:00

Mule Rider

Come on, Robby. Name one issue where I've taken a stance where I can be proven wrong. Name one instance where I've quoted "facts" or "statistics" that were inaccurate or misleading and made my point fallacious.

How about the part where you said you were a better intellect than Nate, and you had much more sophisticated insight to offer into politics and polling? I even offered you a method to prove your thesis: start a site that competes with 538.com, and beat him.

Or are you one of those conservatives that only likes free markets when he's winning?

Just a point of clarification. I don't want to le...

2008-11-25T22:48:00.000-05:00

Just a point of clarification. I don't want to leave the impression that I think Vernon Jones was a good candidate. I do think Jim Martin gave us our best chance of winning this seat.

My point is that there is an unacknowledged headwind to Martin's apparent 'mobilize the African American Obama voting contingent' strategy that is hindering his ability to win.

Not sure that there is anything he can do to mitigate this problem and I'm not suggesting he should try.
What I'm arguing is that his campaign should recognize the issue and change tactics to focus on converting more Whites if he is able to.

just got back from a week in atl volunteering for ...

2008-11-25T20:41:00.000-05:00

just got back from a week in atl volunteering for the ga dem party, mostly phonebanking. there's tons of that - obama turned over his website's phonebanking and canvassing tools to the martin campaign, but the focus is heavily on the former in order to maximize contact in the limited timeframe. there was plenty of energy and activity in the main office there. the general sense is that saxby is all over tv and is robocalling, but that the dems have the ground game just about all to themselves. the common sentiment there, though, is that it will be difficult to energize the african-american vote without a visit from the president-elect. i mostly agree - if obama visits, martin will probably be a slight favorite; if not, he'll remain the definitive underdog, though by no means a sure loser.

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ah, I miss the REAL Mule Headthis is clearly his n...

2008-11-25T18:57:00.000-05:00

ah, I miss the REAL Mule Head

this is clearly his notorious sock puppet from those heady days of October

this clown is just tired & pathetic & angry that BHO was elected - just as Nate had correctly predicted...

ps - FL went BLUE also just as I [also] predicted it would btw

WV - 'ungsa' - what the FBI profilers call the perps...

Edit: That's part of my point. Not "pretty much" o...

2008-11-25T17:12:00.000-05:00

Edit: That's part of my point. Not "pretty much" or most or anything like that.

To put this into context, I had never before heard...

2008-11-25T17:10:00.000-05:00

To put this into context, I had never before heard of John Ziegler before I saw this poll that was done by him through Zogby and the ensuing fallout here on 538.

So for those of you who would try to tie me to such a birdbrain, I had never heard of the guy just one month ago.

That's pretty much my point. Ziegler generated his own story and got attention.

And it would not have even occurred to me to tie Ziegler in with the majority of conservative thinking except for your complaints about it. But maybe I'm just close to Nate's wave length.

I've noticed a similar problem in the past with liberalism. If you ask somebody if they're liberal, they'll say "Hell no!", but if you ask about their positions, they'll agree with a majority of liberal positions. So liberalism had an image problem, furthered by the impression that liberals think that they're better than everybody else and that people that don't agree with them are stupid. (You've alluded to that a bit yourself.) That's true in the case of some liberals. But not in the case of the majority.

So maybe I just already have empathy with the issue.

A couple of things of interest in the GA race:*Cha...

2008-11-25T17:04:00.000-05:00

A couple of things of interest in the GA race:

*Chambliss on the recession: The DSCC has some good anti-Chambliss ads out. I don't know how widely they are being seen, but they use a clip of Chambliss saying recently that he doesn't know what a recession is.

*Chambliss also has been doing a lot of golfing in his years in office--lots of junkets and lobbyists and such. No problem for him unless Martin has the savvy to use his behavior effectively in the closing days. (Does he have the money left to run a lot of ads?)

*Sarah Palin - This could be interesting. She's going to be campaigning with good ol' Saxby in the next few days. Please, please, let her talk all she wants. This could be the break Jim Martin needs. The more she talks, the greater the odds she says something really stupid, offensive, or mind-boggling. No--not just to liberals, but to members of her own party. How will those suburban Atlanta libertarians who voted for Buckley feel about her? How will those national security Republicans feel about her? How will the evangelicals take to her? How will those Main Street-small-town (former Democratic) Republicans react to her? What are the odds that, with several appearances in the state, she ticks off at least one conservative constituency enough to cause Saxby a bit of regret for bringing her in? It may not be enough to change the outcome, but it will be nice to see the GOP fracture a bit further.

Of course, it's GA-GT weekend and Thanksgiving, so nobody may be paying attention, but it's interesting that Saxby thought he needed to get her help, as well as Rudy Giuliani's at the last minute. After McCain's defeat, I wonder if the base-appeal of Palin and Giuliani is what Saxby apparently thinks it is. They both just seem like old news.

Mule Rider,I offer this in all good conscience. I...

2008-11-25T17:03:00.000-05:00

Mule Rider,

I offer this in all good conscience. I believe you think you can debate Nate Silver and prevail on any number of subjects. However, I doubt you'd try to engage someone in conversation by walking up to them and yelling at them in public. At the least you'd embarrass yourself, at worst you'd get your ass kicked and possibly arrested.

So why do you insist on doing the same thing in the comments section here? It isn't productive, does nothing to advance your position (and frankly, I have a hard time telling what your position is because of all the noise) and has apparently already made quite a few of people mad enough that they would like to kick your ass, given the chance. There is no way anyone is going to engage you in the "duel" you seek - which you suggest should be a high level debate of ideas - because you call them names. All we get is the name calling back and forth which you then turn around and try to claim is awful, now that its directed at (rather than by) you. Plus, every time you resort to name calling and belittling, you engage in those very Fox News/Rush Limbaugh/echo chamber tactics that you claim don't represent conservatism.

If you really feel you have coherent theories and alternatives to anything posted by Nate, by all means tack up your 95 theses on the cathedral door. Just remember, Luther didn't call anyone a "moonbat" or "wingnut" to make his point. Neither did Locke, or Adam Smith, Thomas Paine (who, like you, used the term "common sense" as a synonym for how he personally felt), Jefferson, Patrick Henry, John, Sam or even Abigail Adams. They used polite terma of address even as the opponents of their ideals were variously accusing them of heresy, treason and similarly severe acts (admittedly, Hamilton was known to be cutting personally and fought that duel with Burr, but you can't find such animosity in the Federalist papers). That restraint and civility is in no small part why we respect the thoughts of these leaders so.

In sum, please elevate your tone. Even if others won't, that shouldn't be your concern, if you really want anyone to follow your ideas (rather than just know the heat of your feelings).

Martin is a horrible candidate.However, what Chamb...

2008-11-25T17:02:00.000-05:00

Martin is a horrible candidate.

However, what Chambliss is doing is a huge disservice to the US. He is running ads that are already poisoning the well for an Obama candidacy, with outright lies about Obama.

He brings up the "different from us" angle in some ads, the "he will take away your guns" angle, etc..

Much less than attacking Martin, he is now attacking Obama, and in a state like Georgia, this can cause real problems.

There's a whole lot of that low-hanging fruit and ...

2008-11-25T16:59:00.000-05:00

There's a whole lot of that low-hanging fruit and it seems to have a heckuva following considering that it's practically the only thing I can find on the airwaves when driving along the interstates in the South.

What Nate was addressing is the image of conservatism and that is a problem and will continue to be so until the non-caricatures of conservatism speak up for themselves. I presume that's part of what you're trying to do, but calling him a coward because he won't debate some anonymous blogger doesn't make you look like much of a step past those nuts.

Yes, there are other stories and issues that he could be addressing. But not addressing one specific angle that you want him to doesn't mean that he's a coward or misrepresenting conservatives. There are a bajillion issues that he's not addressing that I'd like to see, but that doesn't make him derelict in duty.

It's not his job to reform the conservative movement. It's yours ... and the rest of the conservatives that disavows those caricatures. But whining at people and then insulting them when they won't help you generate positive press for conservatives probably isn't going to go far.

I think that you're going at it backwards. Instead of trying to generate a story based on your reaction to another story, create one completely on your own.

To put this into context, I had never before heard...

2008-11-25T16:53:00.000-05:00

Martin is a weak candidate that almost won due to ...

2008-11-25T16:51:00.000-05:00

Martin is a weak candidate that almost won due to the African American surge of votes and lack of enthusiasm among the Republican regulars in the general election. From what I can see they R's are much more energised this round of voting to stop a super majority and Martin just does not have enough energy OTP (outside the Atlanta perimiter) - Saxby by 7 my prediction.

Nick,Great post. But the point still remains that ...

2008-11-25T16:39:00.000-05:00

Nick,

Great post. But the point still remains that Nate, while pushing himself as a statistical geek based on "facts" and an up-and-coming pundit, still has to resort to trashing conservatives by tackling ridiculous caricatures of them in the representative form of someone like John Ziegler.

Hey, Nate rose to prominence by doing stuff a little different and thinking "outside the box" and seeing things that not many other people (pundits) saw. He gets credit for that. But if he just becomes a more quantitative Keith Olbermann, then he is really doing himself, his fans, and this country a disservice.

If he wants to look deeper at the ideological divide in this country - where it exists, as I'm convinced we're not all as far apart as it seems - then he has to actually dig deeper and not pick the low-hanging fruit (John Ziegler) that is rotten, nasty, and about to fall to the ground anyway.

@STepperThis site will always have some speculatio...

2008-11-25T16:37:00.000-05:00

@STepper
This site will always have some speculation, some "politics" to discuss. It's never been just a statistical analysis site. Remember its origins.

That said, Nate stated right after the election that the site is in a transitional state. Nate has given some clues to what it's going to become -- for one thing, focusing on Congress (and Congress members' voting patterns) and policy issues.

Since as you are well aware this site is essentially a 2-man operation, putting out "new content" while also "remaking the site" (including creating whole new databases) is going to take a bit of time, even if Nate adds permanent technical and site-design staff.

Furthermore, I read in an Q&A that he gave shortly after the election that he's got serious "baseball stats" responsibilities during this period, as he has to develop the forecasts for next year's Baseball Prospectus annual, which has to go to the printer in early January.

In the meantime, I think Nate's done some pretty interesting stuff in the post-election era -- including the Zogby-Ziegler undressing.

So I think we should cut Nate a bit of slack, expect something exciting to come in the future, but not judge 538 by what it is right now.

wv: scriter (a person who scrawls)

Uh, he used his little back-and-forth with John as...

2008-11-25T16:28:00.000-05:00

Uh, he used his little back-and-forth with John as the impetus for an entire article called - Did Talk Radio Kill Conservatism? - so I'd say, yeah, he was trying to link Ziegler and all conservatives under the same roof.

Sigh.

Re-read the article.

There are intelligent and reasonable conservatives. Most of the ones that I know personally - either on the web or "in real life" fit that bill. Maybe you do as well. Sometimes, I believe that you sound reasonable, but then you demonize the left with stereotypes and insulting all while complaining about the same and professing to take the high road.

However, the reasonable conservatives are not the voice of conservatives. Instead, the conservative mouthpieces are nutjobs such as Hannity, Limbaugh, O'Reilly, Malkin, Savage and yes, Ziegler.

That is the problem that conservatism is facing. Not that its rank-and-file are all looney tunes. But that the people that are ostensibly their spokespeople are. Many of these spokespeople approach each issue with utter disbelief that anybody could possibly see the issue from a different point of view seriously crippling their chances of persuading any body that does because they can't frame the argument. Worse, enough of the rank-and-file find them entertaining enough to keep giving them listeners.

Ziegler and his like aren't all conservatives. But as long as they are seen by the majority as representing them due to the absence of reasonable conservatives, they'll continue to handicap conservatism. And that's basically what the article said.

Personally, I think that Nate is burying conservatism a bit early. I think that a lot of the recent liberal swing is just the pendulum swinging back.

I've been posting about the GA Senate race for a w...

2008-11-25T16:21:00.000-05:00

I've been posting about the GA Senate race for a while in comments. I still think Chambliss by 11%. Unfortunately.

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Georgia: Martin Stuck in Neutral?

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AssMonkey Rider is nothing but an attention seeker...

Mule RiderCome on, Robby. Name one issue where I'v...

Just a point of clarification. I don't want to le...

just got back from a week in atl volunteering for ...

Receive $130 Paid to You ImmediatelyThe LWS Freedo...

ah, I miss the REAL Mule Headthis is clearly his n...

Edit: That's part of my point. Not "pretty much" o...

To put this into context, I had never before heard...

A couple of things of interest in the GA race:*Cha...

Mule Rider,I offer this in all good conscience. I...

Martin is a horrible candidate.However, what Chamb...

There's a whole lot of that low-hanging fruit and ...

To put this into context, I had never before heard...

Martin is a weak candidate that almost won due to ...

Nick,Great post. But the point still remains that ...

@STepperThis site will always have some speculatio...

Uh, he used his little back-and-forth with John as...

I've been posting about the GA Senate race for a w...

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